Catching Up: A Look at the Current Situation

[timvp]

At 39-25, the San Antonio Spurs are heading into the daunting end to their 2009-2010 regular season schedule. Of their last 18 games, 14 are against teams with plus-.500 records, 11 are on the road and four are on the second night of a back-to-back. In fact, from here on out San Antonio has no more than one day off between games.

To make things even more difficult, the Spurs will face the homestretch without All-Star point guard Tony Parker for quite possibly the duration. These 18 games are going to be difficult to survive -- much less thrive.

The good news is the Spurs have actually racked up wins as of late and, barring a total collapse, appear to be a shoo-in for the playoffs. Feasting on a relatively easy set of games, the Spurs have won seven of their last eight outings. As it stands, the Spurs have a five and a half game cushion over the 9th seeded Rockets.

While the Spurs are a longshot to make noise in the playoffs, a strong sprint to the finish line could very well crack the door open a bit.

Tony Parker


After struggling with a variety of injuries, Tony Parker's sub par season was put to bed by a broken hand. After a career-year last season, Parker came crashing down this season. A combination of injuries and a lack of cohesion with the new players sent him into a tailspin that he never fully righted.

That said, hope isn't completely loss. If he can return early from injury and play at least a few regular season games, I'm confident he could quickly round into form. Out of the Big 3, Parker is the one who relies least on rhythm; he has repeatedly shown the ability to shake off rust with ease.

In a perfect world, Parker would use this time to let his nagging injuries heal and then come out with boundless energy for the postseason. It's unlikely to happen that way ... but let a Spurs fan dream a little bit.

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Tim Duncan


Last year at this time, Tim Duncan was battling a pair of painful knees and his discomfort was obvious in his lack of production. Although masked by the recent wins, Duncan's numbers have taken a similar nosedive this season. Since the All-Star break, he's only averaging 16.1 points and 9.4 rebounds on 46% shooting from the floor.

I'm not quite read to panic because the Spurs haven't been riding him too much lately. Plus, his movements don't look nearly as slow as they did at this point last year. The story will be told during these final 18 games. If Duncan is again breaking down physically, he won't be able to hide it.

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Manu Ginobili


Since the beginning of February, Manu Ginobili has once again become a force. In February, he averaged 18.5 points, 4.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds while shooting 45.1% from the field and 35.8% on three-pointers. March has seen him play even better: 18.9 points, 6.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds on 54% shooting and 47.2% on threes.

As has been the case all season, his passing has been outstanding recently. In February, his jumping ability improved, which allowed him to finish at the rim. Now that he's shooting well from the perimeter, the only difference between this Ginobili and Ginobili in his prime is fewer dunks and thinner hair.

Right now, Ginobili is playing well enough for the Spurs to be an elite team. The trick is to get a few others to follow and have Ginobili stay healthy.

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George Hill


George Hill continues to blossom before our eyes. His breakout month was in February when he averaged 15.9 points, 3.1 assists and 3.4 rebounds, while shooting 46.3% from the field and 37.1% from beyond the arc. This month, Hill has taken his game to a higher level. His averages in March are 16.6 points, 5.0 assists and 3.4 rebounds on 55.3% shooting from the floor and 63.2% on three-pointers.

We're even starting to see some playmaking ability out of Hill. In the last game against the Clippers, he had ten assists in the first half alone. Though it is rare for a player to make a substantial jump in their playmaking ability after the start of their NBA career, it has happened in the past (See: Billups, Chauncey).

The other exciting aspect of Hill's game is how confident he has become on three-pointers -- especially from the corners. If he keeps making strides in playmaking while adding range on his jumper, the sky is the limit for the second-year guard.

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Richard Jefferson


During Richard Jefferson's early-season struggles, I called for him to do three basic things: play hard on defense, run the court and rebound. As of late, he's starting to do all three of those things. Although his scoring has been hit and miss, he's become a much more well-rounded player. He's obviously not worth the money the Spurs are paying him but his possession to possession impact on the game has become more consistent.

In the last ten games, Jefferson is averaging 6.9 rebounds per contest. He's been especially good at pulling down contested boards late in games. Offensively, he has been effective in transition -- particularly when he's paired with Ginobili. On the defensive end, his sloppiness is becoming less and less of a problem.

I was also impressed with how Jefferson handled getting sent to the bench for a stretch of games coming out of the All-Star break. Instead of pouting, he worked harder and concentrated more of the things he could control. There might be hope for Jefferson yet.

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Antonio McDyess


It's been a struggle for McDyess to put everything together. Some games he's hitting his jumpers, some games he's playing good D and some games he's rebounding well. Unfortunately, he rarely masters all three aspects simultaneously. From game to game, it's impossible to know what to expect out of him.

Recently, McDyess has rebounded well and his defense has improved. He still makes mistakes on rotations but the effort is there and the advancements he's making are easy to see. Offensively is where McDyess is currently struggling the most. His automatic jumper hasn't been so automatic and he's having trouble finishing around the rim.

McDyess historically plays better as the regular season progresses. Let's hope his best is still ahead of him.

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Keith Bogans


Keith Bogans is a tough dude to figure out. He is supposedly a defensive stopper but his effectiveness on that end of the court is so wildly inconsistent. One minute he'll be locking up a perimeter star, the next moment he'll be getting eaten alive by a no-name. Recently, there have been times when he's looked very good on defense ... but it never lasts very long.

Pop remains high on Bogans' potential impact on the team -- going as far as to call him the "centerpiece". I just don't think it's going to happen. He's not big, quick or athletic enough to be a stopper. He gives the effort but a lot of time that effort turns into dumb fouls. Offensively, he's never going to produce well enough on that end to justify being on the court unless he's playing stellar defense.

After starting 11 straight games, Bogans has come off the bench in the last two outings. Personally, I hope it stays that way.

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DeJuan Blair


DeJuan Blair is still producing well on a per-minute basis, however his production has fallen off since the All-Star break. He went from averaging 20.2 points and 17.1 rebounds per 48 minutes before the break to averaging 19.3 points and 13.4 rebounds per 48 minutes after the break. Still solid numbers but there are definitely signs that the long season is taking its toll on the rookie.

Despite the dip in production, Blair is improving in some areas. He's defending better, he's passing better and he's better understanding spacing on the offensive end. Blair has proven to be a quick learner -- which bodes well for his future in the league.

For the Spurs to have any sort of shot, they need Blair to find a second wind at some point before the playoffs.

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Matt Bonner


Pop inserted Matt Bonner into the starting lineup coming out of the All-Star break. That move was such a disaster that Bonner not only lost the starting job, he fell completely out of the rotation. Left for dead, Bonner has resurfaced in March and is now playing some of his best basketball of the season.

For the month, Bonner is averaging 11.1 points on 51.9% shooting from the field and 48.5% from long range. He's once again shooting with confidence and he's also mixing in solid defense -- both individually and in the pick-and-roll. On the season, Bonner continues to easily lead the team in plus/minus per minute at .216, which is more than 40% better than his closest compe ion (Duncan at .152).

Since returning from injury, the main negative with Bonner has been a lack of rebounding. He averaged 10.7 rebounds per 48 minutes prior to breaking his hand. In 23 games since his return, Bonner is averaging 7.0 boards per 48 minutes.

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Roger Mason, Jr.


To begin the season, Roger Mason, Jr. couldn't do much of anything right. He eventually found a rhythm and was useful for a few months in the middle of the year. But then around the time his agent started talking about wanting a trade, Mason's game has regressed to the point that he's almost worthless.

Since the All-Star break, Mason is shooting 27.9% from the field and 20.0% on three-pointers. His shooting woes are coming at a bad time because he was in line for more minutes with Parker out. Pop is still playing him but his hold on a spot in the rotation is tenuous.

Mason's time with the Spurs is coming to an end. Before the time runs out, it'd be nice if he could start connecting on a few shots from the perimeter.

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Malik Hairston


Since being recalled from the Austin Toros, I've been impressed with the strides Malik Hairston has made. He has obviously been working on his ballhandling; Pop has even utilized him a point guard for a few possessions. Hairston can now use his dribble to beat him man and get all the way to the rim. We are still waiting on his three-point shot to translate to the NBA level but in the meantime he's knocked down a few long twos.

Defensively, Hairston has a lot of promise. You can tell wants to be a really good defender, which is half the battle in itself. He uses his superb athleticism and timing to challenge shots -- both out on the perimeter and at the rim. If he can rein in fouls and make rotations just a little bit quicker, Pop will hopefully find it difficult to keep Hairston off the floor.

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Ian Mahinmi


Ian Mahinmi remains an enigma wrapped in a riddle locked in Pop's doghouse. When he hits the court, he just becomes more of a mystery. At this point, I've given up on figuring out what the plan is for Mahinmi. Like the rest of Spurs Nation, I'm left to try to decifer his potential from the bits and pieces we see of him.

Yes, Mahinmi makes his share of mistakes. But his athletic ability and size are a rarely found combination. He has a good set of offensive moves and he's an active defender. I'm not convinced he's some sort of savior in hiding, although I'm also not convinced Mahinmi doesn't have an NBA career.

Hopefully this story has a happy ending. Right now, it looks like the Mahinmi chapter will be one of the oddest footnotes in Spurs history.

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Cedric Jackson


The Spurs signed Cedric Jackson to a ten-day contract and the 6-foot-3 point guard already has some memorable moments. Regarded as a good defensive player, I like the toughness he provides on that end of the court.

Against the Clippers, he had three steals and two blocks in 15 minutes of action. Jackson defended well against speed and also showed an ability to battle bigger players down low. He's skinny but he puts up a good fight.

Offensively, I'm not quite as impressed. He has a violent form on his jumper, which also has a low release. Jackson is aggressive on offense but you can tell he's a converted shooting guard by the way he runs pick-and-rolls and his limited court vision. That said, his defense alone could make him a worthwhile prospect.

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Gregg Popovich


I'm really interested to see how Pop handles the stretch run. He has to juggle trying to win games with trying to keep Duncan and Ginobili fresh for the playoffs. If Parker is able to return, how Pop integrates him back into the lineup will also be of interest.

With Mason and Bogans underwhelming with their play, will Pop give Hairston a shot to earn minutes? Will Mahinmi be given a chance? Can Pop find roles that will allow Jefferson and McDyess to flourish? Will Pop keep trusting Blair late into the season? Even though the end is in sight, it seems like the questions are just beginning. (Then again, going an entire season without setting a rotation will have that effect.)

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[polandprzem]

timvp you have copied that from a newspaper, it was so good you had to ...

j/k


not funny



hey - if Ian has any good value on a market the spurs shopuld trade him in the offseason. You can like the guy and his athleticism, but it doesn't seems like his talent will break through his rawness [if there is that kind of word in dictonary]

People are too tough for RJ - the guy is trying hard and wants to learn and for about month he has been really good. he might not score much but he rebounds better and his D is better 1-1 and his team defense [positioning]

All in all the spurs picked their game, but they may fall as the scheudle is as tough as I've seen. Ever

[boutons_deux]

"Will Mahinmi be given a chance?"

why are these words on my screen?

[nkdlunch]

No Ian won't play any minutes this stretch. Unless there's foul/injury or a 25pt beatdown of the Spurs.

[Sotongball21]

Good take.

With the season winding down, it is time Pop trims the rotation down.
In the best case scenario, Parker returns with a few games in the regular season and starts on the bench, to ease him into the rotation.

When the playoff starts, the ideal rotation would be Parker, Hill, Jefferson, Mcdyess and Duncan.
With Manu, Hairston, Bonner/Blair Depending on rotation depending on the situation.

But this will leave us with the "centerpiece".
IMO, Pop will play Bogans over Hairston, which will only lead to bad things.

[Libri]

Malik Hairston


Since being recalled from the Austin Toros, I've been impressed with the strides Malik Hairston has made. He has obviously been working on his ballhandling; Pop has even utilized him a point guard for a few possessions. Hairston can now use his dribble to beat him man and get all the way to the rim. We are still waiting on his three-point shot to translate to the NBA level but in the meantime he's knocked down a few long twos.

Defensively, Hairston has a lot of promise. You can tell wants to be a really good defender, which is half the battle in itself. He uses his superb athleticism and timing to challenge shots -- both out on the perimeter and at the rim. If he can rein in fouls and make rotations just a little bit quicker, Pop will hopefully find it difficult to keep Hairston off the floor.

Malik has had more than enough time to memorize the Spurs' playbook. He looks very comfortable with the team rotations. He is even directing his teammates to the right spots.

I found it interesting that Pop made Malik guard Gallinari and Outlaw. It almost seemed like Pop was testing Malik's defense to see if he could do a descent job against taller and stronger players. This is reminiscent of Hill guarding taller players last season.

[silverblackfan]

Malik has had more than enough time to memorize the Spurs' playbook. He looks very comfortable with the team rotations. He is even directing his teammates to the right spots.

I found it interesting that Pop made Malik guard Gallinari and Outlaw. It almost seemed like Pop was testing Malik's defense to see if he could do a descent job against taller and stronger players. This is reminiscent of Hill guarding taller players last season.

I agree that Pop is testing out Malik. Inserting him into the 2nd quarter or play the whole 4th quarter to see how he performs. Malik has responded well and Pop is realizing he has another solid defensive option.

[z0sa]

There's no reason to speculate with Pop; it is unfruitful. He does not follow any kind of common basketball sense.

[Old School 44]

There's no reason to speculate with Pop; it is unfruitful. He does not follow any kind of common basketball sense.

+1, particularly this year.

With the release of Finley and Bogans moving to the bench, maybe Pop's coming around. As we near the playoffs and the rotation shortens, I just hope Blair doesn't become last year's Hill.

[Stringer_Bell]

The final games of this season + playoffs will be probably the most interesting stretches in recent memory. Sadly, I feel none of the highlights or lessons learned from it will be used when it comes time for the playoffs, as Pop doesn't like playing "new guys" when it matters.

One thing I fear is that Pop goes the Van Gundy route of putting TP back in as normal when other line-ups have done a good job of helping us win (see Jameer Nelson being thrown in the Finals line-up last year). At no stage should Pop just plug TP in and expect things to go swimmingly - TP is burnt out and sore, which is why I hope he at least comes back a few games before the playoffs so he can see what he has left in the tank this season.

I'm not a TP hater, as far as I'm concerned he saved the team last season. But he's played a lot of bball and has nagging injuries and cohesion issues this season. He will finish games without a doubt, but if these line-ups prove fruitful they should be used to put us in a position where a healthy and focused TP can help us win at the end...instead of business where we either win decently or lose miserably.

[DAF86]

Now that he's shooting well from the perimeter, the only difference between this Ginobili and Ginobili in his prime is fewer dunks and thinner hair.

And a little bit less efficiency, it might be all in my head but I think Manu nowadays has to take more shots/possesions to produce the same things he prodeced in the past. It isn't a big difference but a difference none the less.

If Parker is able to return, how Pop integrates him back into the lineup will also be of interest.

What do you think he should do?

A- Insert him on the line-up right away no matter how the team is playing
B- Start with him on the bench and progressively work his way into the line-up
C- Put him on the bench and and leave him there until the end of the season/or until the road gets tough.

[AFBlue]

Excellent player-by-player write up.

Honestly though, my favorite piece was the context you provided for the stretch ahead. No matter how many individuals have been playing well or better, 14 games against teams over .500, most of which come on the road and/or as a back-to-back...that's just brutal man.

The optimist in me thinks the Spurs will be better for it having been "battle-tested" going into the playoffs. The pessimist in me says "this could get ugly".

Right now, I'm in an optimistic mood!

Believe.

[lurker23]

And a little bit less efficiency, it might be all in my head but I think Manu nowadays has to take more shots/possesions to produce the same things he prodeced in the past. It isn't a big difference but a difference none the less.

For what it's worth...

Manu, entire season 07-08: 19.5 ppg, averaging 31.1 mpg, 13.3 fga per game, 46.0% from the field; 40.1% from 3-point range on 5.3 attempts per game.

Manu, February/March 2010: 18.7 ppg, averaging 29.5 mpg, 12.7 fga per game, 48.5% from the field; 42.7% from 3-point range on 4.9 attempts per game.

What do you think he should do?

A- Insert him on the line-up right away no matter how the team is playing
B- Start with him on the bench and progressively work his way into the line-up
C- Put him on the bench and and leave him there until the end of the season/or until the road gets tough.

If he's truly physically ready, I bring him back at full-force, put him in the starting lineup immediately. A broken hand isn't really like any kind of lower body injury; there's no real risk of re-aggravation, short of a play where another player gives him a hard-whack on a drive, so the main key is to simply give him the reps to get his shot and rhythm back. Playing him as much as possible, including in the starting lineup, is the best way to do that, as well as the best way to try and win.

[DAF86]

For what it's worth...

Manu, entire season 07-08: 19.5 ppg, averaging 31.1 mpg, 13.3 fga per game, 46.0% from the field; 40.1% from 3-point range on 5.3 attempts per game.

Manu, February/March 2010: 18.7 ppg, averaging 29.5 mpg, 12.7 fga per game, 48.5% from the field; 42.7% from 3-point range on 4.9 attempts per game.

I'm talking about 04/05/06 Manu, that was the best Manu IMO. I know that his best statistically season came in 07-08 but that has more to do with injuries to Tony and Tim so he had to step up, play more minutes and shoot more. But I think that in that season he wasn't as efficient as in previous years. But then again that could be all in my head.

[urunobili]

timvp thanks so much for writing my favorite Spurs insight writing in the internet.

Question for you, do you think finally Pop got over himself and will go young for the rest oft he season? Is he seasoning Malik so he can rest Manu more often? will Mason be benched for good to give Jackson (our new mini Jaxx ) the PG playing time until TP comes back?

[Rummpd]

It started tonight - Spurs basketball with a shut down defense - 12 and 6 for a 51-31 record and a 6th seed (at worst - Okies will start feeling the pressure and Suns due to choke!)

[ElNono]

Good read, thanks

[Sean Cagney]

timvp you have copied that from a newspaper, it was so good you had to ...

j/k


not funny



hey - if Ian has any good value on a market the spurs shopuld trade him in the offseason. You can like the guy and his athleticism, but it doesn't seems like his talent will break through his rawness [if there is that kind of word in dictonary]

People are too tough for RJ - the guy is trying hard and wants to learn and for about month he has been really good. he might not score much but he rebounds better and his D is better 1-1 and his team defense [positioning]

All in all the spurs picked their game, but they may fall as the scheudle is as tough as I've seen. Ever

It is crunch time now, we will see what this team is made of, the schedule is daunting and depressing to look at right now. They are playing alot better though so thats a plus, maybe they can steal 10 outta that last 17 left and get to 50? I hope they can do better than that, but thats all I hope for right now along with improvement. If they are ready they can beat the best and play with them, we are ready to find out now what this team is made of.

[santymrc]

I'm talking about 04/05/06 Manu, that was the best Manu IMO. I know that his best statistically season came in 07-08 but that has more to do with injuries to Tony and Tim so he had to step up, play more minutes and shoot more. But I think that in that season he wasn't as efficient as in previous years. But then again that could be all in my head.

When you have a better FG % you take less shots to score the same. Its simple mats.
Manu is not shooting more, he's scoring more baskets.
He had more FT's in 04/05 etc, but it doesn't mean he's shooting more now (to compensate that) , its exactly the opposite.

[Flux451]

Thank you, Timvp.

What a year. It's crazy not knowing what the rotations are going to be at this point. Hand it to Pop. At least he is giving younger bench a chance. That means he may let them get PT if Spurs get into a bind in playoffs. Maybe he learned last year with Hill. Never hold back the heart of a champion.

[whottt]

Bogans is going to continue to get minutes because Pop intends to play him on quicker bigs like Dirk and Amar'e. Pop has basically given up on attempting that with Jefferson and so Bogans is going to be the small guy that gets that task.

Mahinmi doesn't get minutes because he's too thin to match up with most of the legit c's in the league and too foul prone to match up with the faster ones(who also happen to be very good at drawing fouls). I don't think it's so much of a case that Pop doesn't think he has NBA talent as it is he can't do that Pop wants. Pop doesn't give a damn if he can score points...he gives a damn about if he take the defensive heat off of Duncan against the teams he most needs to be able to do it against...and he doesn't appear to be capable of that. However Mahinmi's enthusiasm is catching and the fact that he always seems to be trying to outhustle everyone on the court(he has always been this way) and probably tries very hard to do what Pop asks has lead to him sliding into the role Pop intended to use Ratliff for.

I'm not really mystified by what Pop is doing at this point...the most mystifying thing he was doing was ignoring the fact that the Spurs had developed a habit of caving since, oh about 2006 or so. Luckily, factors out of Pop's hands lead to that problem working itself out. I am happier about this team now than I have been in years.

As it always seems to have been...Pop getting exactly what he wants = bad. Pop getting the second or third thing he wants = good.

[TacoCabanaFajitas]

Is there a chance Hairston plays big minutes tomorrow? I would think that would make too much sense to Pop but it's the first thing that came to mind when Is saw Bogans with 25 minutes tonight, hopefully Blair and Hairston get big playing time tomorrow with it being a b2b against an athletic team