West preview: Who should win?
FoxSports
MAVERICKS (2) VS. SPURS (7)
Why Dallas should win.
Dirk Nowitzki presents a huge matchup problem for the Spurs. Richard Jefferson is too small, Antonio McDyess is too old and immobile, Matt Bonner is too slow, and Tim Duncan would be far removed from his comfort zone if Nowitzki received the ball in the neighborhood of the 3-point line.
Caron Butler is a solid 2-way player, who will give either Jefferson or Manu Ginobili fits.
Jason Kidd has always been a masterful organizer and has recently developed a dead-eye 3-point shot. He's big and strong enough to abuse either Tony Parker or George Hill in the low post.
In Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood, the Mavs have a pair of defense-minded bangers in the middle. They can abuse McDyess and Bonner and have Tim Duncan aching and gasping for breath by the fourth quarter.
Shawn Marion has lost a step, but has at long last accepted being a role player. As such, he can fill in the empty spaces at both ends of the court and make a significant difference in close ball games.
With Jason Terry and J.J. Barea, Dallas can bring explosive scorers off the bench.
The Mavs have too much firepower and too much mass at the center spot.
Why San Antonio could win.
Ginobili is healthy and his on-target jumpers set up his drives. He also has the quickest last step in the league and cannot be adequately defended by any one of the Mavs -- except perhaps J-Kidd.
If Tim Duncan can hit his overrated off-the-glass jumpers with any degree of regularity, he'll force Dampier/Haywood to come out and play defense in no-man's land.
Parker can zip past anybody the Mavs front him with -- and if his jumpers are also falling, SA's offense becomes extremely versatile.
Jefferson has the capability of recapturing the rapture of his salad days with the Nets -- running, pulling-and-popping, executing tricky drives, and playing ace defense.
Hill has become a vastly underrated performer, who can do just about anything that Pop asks of him.
McDyess is an old warhorse who can still plug mid-range jumpers.
Bonner's long-range marksmanship can spread the floor and give TD room to operate in the low post.
If they can hit their perimeter shots and make precise defensive rotations, the Spurs will be tough to beat.
Meanwhile, Nowitzki and Terry have yet to prove that they can rise to the occasion in tightly-fought playoff games against high-quality opponents.
Most importantly, the clutch play of Duncan and Ginobili should never be underestimated.
Despite the vast difference in the respective seeds of these two teams, this should be an extremely combative and fascinating series.
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