Series Grades: Spurs vs. Mavs - 2010 First Round

[timvp]

*grades are based off of expectations heading into the series*

SPURS 4 - MAVERICKS 2


Top Ten Keys - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview

Player Analysis - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview

Final Prediction - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview

Game 1 - 100-94 - Initial Reaction
Game 2 - 102-88 - Initial Reaction
Game 3 - 94-90 - Initial Reaction
Game 4 - 92-89 - Initial Reaction
Game 5 - 103-81 - Initial Reaction
Game 6 - 97-89 - Initial Reaction


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Tim Duncan

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 37.2
Points: 18.2
Rebounds: 9.5
Assists: 2.7
Turnovers: 2.8
Blocks: 1.0
Fouls: 1.8
FG%: .500
FT%: .486

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
In the first three games of the series, Tim Duncan had at least 25 points in each contest. In the final three games, he totaled 32 points on 12-for-35 shooting from the floor.

ANALYSIS
Early in the series, Duncan was able to take advantage of the fact that the Mavs weren't double-teaming him very much. However, as the series progressed, that advantage disappeared. He also had trouble grabbing rebounds he usually gobbles up and struggled at the line. That said, the fact that he stayed out of foul trouble (only two fouls in the final three games) while playing solid defense gave the Spurs a sturdy foundation to build from. It wasn't the best of series for Duncan but the Mavs defended him well and the four-time champion did a good job of not trying to force the issue.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
B-

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Manu Ginobili

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 33.2
Points: 19.0
Rebounds: 3.7
Assists: 5.0
Turnovers: 2.7
Steals: 2.3
FG%: .417
3P%: .323
FT%: .872

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
In the final four games, Manu Ginobili shot 31.5% (17-for-54) from the field and 16.7% (3-for-18) on three-point attempts. The first two contests saw make 58.1% (18-of-31) of his shots from the floor and 53.8% (7-of-13) of his threes.

ANALYSIS
If you look at Ginobili's numbers from the series, they don't stand out. However, those who watched the games know how important he was to San Antonio's cause. Before and after the broken nose, Ginobili attacked the rim and created shots (and space to operate) for those around him. He led the Spurs in scoring for the series and played rabid defense at times. When he took care of the ball, the Spurs won. In the two losses, he had nine turnovers. In the four wins, he had seven turnovers. All in all, it wasn't quite the legendary series from Ginobili I thought was needed but he did more than his fair share.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
B

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Tony Parker

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 31.5
Points: 15.8
Assists: 5.7
Rebounds: 3.7
Turnovers: 1.8
FG%: .470
FT%: .630

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Tony Parker was the only Spur to score in double-digits in each contest. Combining Game 2 and Game 6, Parker had 16 assists and no turnovers.

ANALYSIS
If you compare Parker's performance against the Mavs to a typical playoff series he's played in throughout the years, his play could be viewed as a disappointment. But with Parker struggling with poor play and injuries all season, he did better than I expected in the first round. He adjusted seamlessly to coming off the bench and was able to spark the squad most of the time. Add in his increased defensive intensity plus the numerous clutch jumpers he connected on against the Mavs and his play in the series has to be considered a success.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
B+

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George Hill

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 35.0
Points: 14.3
Rebounds: 3.8
Assists: 0.7
Turnovers: 0.7
Steals: 1.2
FG%: .500
3P%: .500
FT%: .824

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
In the final two victories, George Hill had 50 points on 18-of-28 shooting from the field and 7-of-10 shooting from beyond the arc. In the first two games, Hill had seven points on 2-for-9 shooting.

ANALYSIS
With the Spurs getting diminishing production from Duncan and Ginobili as the series progressed, Hill stepping up over the final three wins was perhaps the most important storyline of the series. His offensive exploits have been well do ented, however his defense against Jason Kidd may have been equally as important. Overall, this was a coming out party for Hill. Let's hope the trajectory of his play continues to head north.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
A

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Richard Jefferson

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 32.7
Points: 9.2
Rebounds: 4.3
Assists: 1.5
Turnovers: 1.7
FG%: .541
3P%: .250
FT%: .824

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
In four of the six games, Richard Jefferson had five or less field goal attempts. On the plus side, his field goal percentage (54.1%) and free throw percentage (82.4%) were both marked improvements from his regular season numbers (46.7% and 73.5%, respectively).

ANALYSIS
When you are spending more than $14 million on a player, you hope the player gives you more than 9.2 points and 4.3 rebounds per game over the course of a series. But due to lowered expectations after a disappointing regular season, I am pleased with how Jefferson played in the first round. His defense was mostly above average and he took advantage of the attempts he got offensively. Jefferson also pulled down a number of contested boards. All things considered, his vibe was more "selfless" than "passive" against the Mavs -- which allows for a blind eye to be turned toward his pedestrian statistics.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
B+

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Antonio McDyess

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 26.3
Points: 6.7
Rebounds: 7.0
Assists: 1.2
Blocks: 0.8
FG%: .541

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Antonio McDyess had a blocked shot in each of the final five games and at least five rebounds in each contest. In 158 minutes, McDyess failed to get to the line in the series.

ANALYSIS
Considering that McDyess had three or four of his very best games of the season in this series against the Mavs, there's no doubt on the grade he earned. Due to his quiet play during the regular season, it was impossible to know what to expect in the first round. Thankfully, McDyess was able to elevate his game to an impressive level. He defended Nowitzki with a combination of brains and brawn while using his midrange jumper to space the court on the other end. The Spurs literally couldn't have hoped for him to play much better.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
A+

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Matt Bonner

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 16.0
Points: 3.8
Rebounds: 3.7
FG%: .346
3P%: .313

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
While Matt Bonner's numbers look bad, they are a noticeable improvement over his numbers from last year in the playoffs. He shot better from the field and the three-point line while scoring and rebounding more while playing less minutes.

ANALYSIS
If last year didn't happen, Spurs fans would have been shocked by how poorly Bonner played. But after last season's catastrophe, this year's performances don't look too horrible. He gave good effort against Nowitzki but had limited success. Personally, the best news with Bonner is he didn't look as petrified as he appeared to be last year at this time. Perhaps that's a step in the right direction.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
C-

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DeJuan Blair

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 9.0
Points: 4.2
Rebounds: 4.3
FG%: .455
FT%: .556

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Looking at DeJuan Blair's production as a whole, he had 25 points, 26 rebounds and only one turnover in 54 minutes of play against the Mavs.

ANALYSIS
As expected, DeJuan Blair had an up-and-down experience in his first ever playoff series. At times he played the part of an overactive rookie. At other times he played like a caged beast. All in all, he did what DeJuan Blair does: put up monstrous per-minute stats while creating action (whether good or bad) on each possession.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
B-

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Roger Mason, Jr.

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 11.0
Points: 0.8
FG%: .111
3P%: .200

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Um ... I'm not sure what's "inside" of 1-for-9 from the floor with two rebounds, two assists and two turnovers in 44 minutes.

ANALYSIS
Going into this series, it was obvious that Roger Mason, Jr. was going to have a difficult time helping out. But this bad? He was horrible offensively and even worse defensively. For a guy who is playing for a contract, you'd think he'd be giving better efforts.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
F

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Keith Bogans

FIRST ROUND STATISTICS
Minutes: 10.5
Rebounds: 1.3
FG%: .000
3P%: .000

SECOND THE NUMBERS
In 42 minutes, Keith Bogans was scoreless -- 0-for-7 from the field and 0-for-4 on three-pointers.

ANALYSIS
Bogans offensive play was so bad that he single-handedly would bog down the team's play on that end. However, I graded him higher than Mason because he actually had a few good defensive plays.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
D

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Gregg Popovich


ANALYSIS
In 2006, Pop coached too much. He changed the team's entire philosophy and the results were obviously negative. This time, Pop resisted the urge to change too much and instead kept rolling with what was working at the end of the regular season. Though it sounds simple, you can just look at Rick Carlisle's coaching work to see how easy it is to out-think things. Pop's steady hand compared to Carlisle's jumpiness was one of the biggest keys that allowed the Spurs to defeat the Mavs and advance.

FIRST ROUND GRADE
A-

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[timvp]

Plus/Minus: Spurs vs. Mavs - 2010 First Round
Tim Duncan +25
Tony Parker +15
Antonio McDyess +15
Richard Jefferson +9
George Hill +7
Roger Mason, Jr. -4
Manu Ginobili -7
DeJuan Blair -11
Keith Bogans -13
Matt Bonner -16


Thoughts on the plus/minus:

-Duncan's impact can be overlooked.

-McDyess' quality play came through on the numbers.

-Parker did a good job of keeping the bench afloat.

-Jefferson didn't hurt the Spurs.

-I'll chalk Ginobili's minus as a fluke.

-Bonner's plus/minus godliness doesn't extend to the playoffs.

[timvp]

PER: Spurs vs. Mavs - 2010 First Round
DeJuan Blair 26.5
Manu Ginobili 22.3
Tony Parker 18.9
Tim Duncan 17.6
George Hill 16.7
Antonio McDyess 12.1
Richard Jefferson 10.8
Matt Bonner 6.2
Roger Mason, Jr. -6.7
Keith Bogans -7.3

[stéphane]

Thanks for taking the time to do the grading LJ despite being busy in RL.

[quentin_compson]

Spot on as usual, timvp.

After the first three games, I didn't see why the Big Three shouldn't be able to put up big numbers throughout the whole series. Duncan was good against Damp/Haywood, and the Mavs had no way of stopping Tony and Manu from driving to the rim.
Then, however, there was Game 4 which had us all a little worried about Tim. I think you're right, though. He didn't force things and let the game come to him. His defense was definitely above average and especially crucial in the second half of Game 6.

Tony was having a very good series considering his injury and his new role coming off the bench. It is a good sign that he can rely on his midrange jumper in pressure situations. I think he will be better as the playoffs advance.
Manu wasn't Super Manu, especially not after Nowitzki's elbow broke his nose, but he was still very good and continues to be a guy you can rely on when things get tough.
Dice and (obviously) George were our heroes in this series without a doubt. Dice was playing Nowitzki as good as you can expect anyone to, he pulled down numerous important boards, and whenever open, he was automatic with his midrange shot.
George was simply amazing. I honestly hadn't thought he could be that good offensively on a consistent basis (after shaking off this ankle injury).

[Spurs Brazil]

thanks timvp.

And I want to say I was 100% wrong about Dice. I had no hope for him, I thought he was very bad in regular season, especially with rotations and bad passes on O.

Dice was great in this series. Great D, I didn't see him missing rotations and throwing bad passes. And to be even better he hit some clutch shots. As you said he earned his salary for the season with his play against the Mavs

And Hill was amazing. I expected him to be good in this series but not this good.

[Brazil]

Thanks timvp ! I agree with your grades. The two best surprises for sure: Dice and Hill.

[bigfan]

This is history as it is the first time I disagree with TIMVP on something; I think Manu gets an A for guts with that broken nose and I think Tim deserves at least a B+ for his play.

[wildbill2u]

PER: Spurs vs. Mavs - 2010 First Round
DeJuan Blair 26.5
Manu Ginobili 22.3
Tony Parker 18.9
Tim Duncan 17.6
George Hill 16.7
Antonio McDyess 12.1
Richard Jefferson 10.8
Matt Bonner 6.2
Roger Mason, Jr. -6.7
Keith Bogans -7.3

I've never been too sure about exactly what metric the PER measures--but the numbers above mirror my observations on the value of the player in the series (with the anomalous exception of Blair who I think played too few minutes to have valid stats of this type)

[Chieflion]

I've never been too sure about exactly what metric the PER measures--but the numbers above mirror my observations on the value of the player in the series (with the anomalous exception of Blair who I think played too few minutes to have valid stats of this type)

PER is the combination of the player's entire box score, then using team pace to adjust for differences. The league average is always 15.0.

[team-work]

In this series, a number of players stepped up. Besides, Pop returned to common sense in his coaching. These 2 components are important for the Spurs to advance further no matter who the opponents are.

[EVAY]

"grades are based on expectations going into the series"

That has to be the key to why Manu was graded less than he should have been, based on his performance after his nose got broken.

Manu was a warrior-king among warriors.

Time, with all due respect (and I really do respect you a great deal)...this just means that you were grading on the curve. Since Manu was the guy who basically pulled the Spurs into the playoffs, you seemed to expect him to dominate as much in the playoffs AFTER having a broken nose as he did in the last part of the season. I just don't agree with the criterion you based your grading on. I understand it and respect it; I just don't agree with it.

Mnau Ginobili, in this past series, as in so many times in the past, deserves the highest grade that anyone on the team has.

Manu was the MVP of the series without a doubt.

[itzsoweezee]

time to kick bonner to the curb. please front office, don't be stupid enough to re-sign this scrub.

[Cry Havoc]

If Hill continues to develop along this curve, and the Spurs are able to pick up ANYONE with Mason's contract expiring and getting rid of Bonner (and perhaps Bogans), this team could be incredibly, fantastically deep this year. If we can get ANY kind of spark out of the spot in the rotation currently occupied by Mason, we're have the potential to be a better team next year, particularly if Beast finds a way to be more consistent. Which he will.

Do the Spurs not have the best drafting Front Office in the league? Parker, Manu, Hill, DeJuan -- all late first or second round pickups. Crazy.

[pad300]

TIMVP YOU PUSSY!

YOU MANAGEMENT STOOGE!!!

NO GRADE FOR IAN!!

After his incredible Cameo in Game 5...

Not to mention Temple...

No wimping out. Get your ass in gear and finish the Job... It's playoff time, effort pays off!

[hsxvvd]

B+ for is generous. I guess low expectations from the regular season account for it, but it's a D from preseason expectations.

[clambake]

the grading curve was skewed by carlisle.

i think some adjustments would be appropriate.

[Horse]

Gotta disagree with Pop's A-, he did well but played with fire too much. He's obsession with Bonner, Bogans, and Mason I'll never understand and playing them together is even more confusing either way we got it done but I'd give him a B.

[MmP]

Carlile A-

[BillMc]

Very nice analysis as usual. Well done!

[Libri]

Anybody want to tutor Mason so he can bring his grade up?

[kace]

rather accurate for your way of grading (from what is expected from the player). thanks ! good read.

[My Fault]

Manu deserves an A for this series. Playing with a broken nose (and coming back from it in the same game) is extremly hard. The pain is bad, difficulty seeing often happens, that little bandage offered little protection and yet Manu still led the Spurs to a game 3 win with 11 fourth quarter points. That game alone deserves an A for the series.

I agre... That showed extreme heart and determination to win.

[NFGIII]

PER: Spurs vs. Mavs - 2010 First Round
DeJuan Blair 26.5
Manu Ginobili 22.3
Tony Parker 18.9
Tim Duncan 17.6
George Hill 16.7
Antonio McDyess 12.1
Richard Jefferson 10.8
Matt Bonner 6.2
Roger Mason, Jr. -6.7
Keith Bogans -7.3

One of our Achilles heels. In fact I'm a little surprised that Bonner had that high of a number. Imagine if those two numbers were 0.0 or even positive? That will be a goal against the Suns, though somehthing that really can't be focused on since it it one of those after the fact stats.

Do the Spurs not have the best drafting Front Office in the league? Parker, Manu, Hill, DeJuan -- all late first or second round pickups. Crazy.

For all the ing that happens on this board about the FO in retrospect it seems obvious that they have done a great job for a long time. And with Splitter most likely coming next year and the possibility of getting better role players than we presently have - Bogans, Mason and Bonner - this team will be in the position to compete for the next several years or as long as TD is productive.

[SpursTillTheEnd]

wtf roger mason deserves a Z not an f