Rita and Corpus Christi

[Vashner]

Hum.. even worse than the bowl getting hit again. Imagine how expensive gas would be if the refineries in Corpus are wiped out by a Cat 4 storm?

[Trainwreck2100]

Why is God angry about our dependence on fossil fuels

[MannyIsGod]

The water isn't warm enough to support a Cat 4 storm. While not out of the realm of possiblity, the chances of a Rita being a cat 4 storm when it comes ashore with the influence of a trof and the water tempatures are not very high.

[Vashner]

Did you see that storm it just sucked in? It was on the loop...

[Ginofan]

While the Keys are likely to escape with a hard but bearable hit from a strengthening Category 1 or 2 hurricane, the Gulf Coast will not be so lucky. There is nothing in the long-range forecast that I can see that will prevent Rita from intensifying into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. The entire stretch of coast from 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas to Mobile, Alabama is at risk--no one can say with any confidence where Rita will hit this far in advance. Texas and Louisiana are at the highest risk. The current model trend is to recurve Rita earlier and earlier, so residents from Corpus Christi to New Orleans need to be particulary concerned.

[TheTruth]

Did you see that storm it just sucked in? It was on the loop...

Damn Vashner, your like John Madden writing on the T.V.

[SpursWoman]

Damn Vashner, your like John Madden writing on the T.V.

[ObiwanGinobili]

Why is God angry about our dependence on fossil fuels

because he really had a thing for the dinasaurs and whatnot and he hates to see the ramins of them and thier enviroment desecrated in that way.

[Hook Dem]

Well, it doesn't look good

[Ginofan]

It seems the models are shifting to the east a bit.

[Shelly]

I know a Rita that lives in Corpus Christi!

[SWC Bonfire]

It seems the models are shifting to the east a bit.

Crap.

[Ginofan]

at 11 Am Edt...1500z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Rita Was Located
Near La ude 23.0 North... Longitude 75.2 West Or About 195
Miles... 315 Km... Southeast Of Nassau And About 430 Miles
East-southeast Of Key West Florida.

Rita Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 12 Mph... 19 Km/hr...
And This Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 Mph...100 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours...
And Rita Could Become A Category One Hurricane Tonight.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 145 Miles
...230 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 994 Mb...29.35 Inches.

Rita Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Ac ulations Of 4 To 6
Inches Over The Southeastern And Central Bahamas...with Possible
Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8 Inches. Storm Totals Of 6 To 10
Inches...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Will Be
Possible In The Florida Keys And Northwestern Cuba...with 3 To 5
Inches Possible Across The Southern Florida Peninsula.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 6 To 9 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...along
With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...are Possible In The
Florida Keys In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Coastal Storm Surge
Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Are Possible Along The Extreme Southeastern
Florida Coast...and In The Northwestern Bahamas.

Repeating The 11 Am Edt Position...23.0 N... 75.2 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 65 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 994 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 2 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Pm
Edt.

Forecaster Knabb

[boutons]

SA forecast sees some cooler Rita rain next weekend

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather

[ObiwanGinobili]

i'm just gonna pray that there are no hurricane force winds in Victoria....my mom's neighbor has this wickedly huge old decrepit tree thats threatnign to fall righ on my mom's roof as it is... it doesn't need any help.

[boutons]

[MannyIsGod]

The models are definetly shiftnig to the east. I think Texas has a date with Rita, though. But we'll see.

[Ginofan]

It would suck royally if they are going to continue to open up parts of N.O. only to have another hurricane head that way.

[MannyIsGod]

The 2 best models for the system on Mandy's graphic are still the ones to the east; the GFDL and UKMET. The BAMMs and the LBAR can be thrown out because they are pretty much crap after a system is on the verge of being a hurricane.

Couple that with the fact the NHC does not like shifting tracks back and forth large distances, and thats why you have their track taking it right into Galveston at this time. But if you see those 2 models shift farther east, then you will see their track shift as well.

The reason you are seeing this shift is because the storm shifted to the north a couple of times yesterday, so every time the models ran they ran with a starting positino farther to the north. Because it is so far away, even a 2 deegree shift to the north makes a huge decision over time.

All in all, the next couple of days will be a better indicator of where this thingis going to go. Once it is 3 days out, look at where the forcast is pointing, because that is more than likely where it is going to go.

[MannyIsGod]

It would suck royally if they are going to continue to open up parts of N.O. only to have another hurricane head that way.

I can't see the ridge allowing that. But we shall see.

[MannyIsGod]

Did you see that storm it just sucked in? It was on the loop...

The storms you are circling are all part of Rita. The center of circulation is farther to the east than you are indicating and part of the circulation is not covered with convection. It didn't swallow anything.

The center is actually closer to the spot where those 3 blobs are meeting.

[MannyIsGod]

[MannyIsGod]

The storm will be a hurricane later by 4pm. Book it.

[samikeyp]

Manny...if the storm stalled right before CC and sat there for a bit could that push it to a Cat 4 before it hit?

[Ishta]

This just sucks..what would be really bad is if this storm made it to Houston