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Today is Duncan`s b-day
The Grizzlies are halfway to handing the Spurs an embarrassing end to their 2011 playoff run. In such a scenario, this year's Spurs squad would be remembered for all of eternity -- for all the wrong reasons.
But, honestly, I'm not worried. In fact, I'm rather confident. The Spurs can, and probably will, come back to win this series. Quote me on that.
Reviewing the tape, I just don't see any fatal flaws that would preclude the Spurs from winning three out of their next four games against the Grizzlies. To put it as simple as possible, the Spurs have played poorly while the Grizzlies have steadily been near the top of their game. That hypothetically could continue, however there are reasons to believe it won't.
10. Rebounding and Turnovers Aren't Problematic
Coming into the series, the two areas needing the most attention were rebounding the basketball (especially on the defensive end) and limiting turnovers. Through the first three games, the Spurs have done just that.
San Antonio is outrebounding Memphis 45.3 to 40.7 this series. During the regular season, Memphis averaged nearly 16 offensive rebounds per game against the Spurs. In the first three games, they averaged only eight offensive rebounds. The Spurs have sent extra bodies to the defensive glass and that seems to have solved the rebounding issues against the Grizzlies from the regular season.
A huge part of the Grizzlies' success in the regular season was their ability to steal the basketball. In the first three games, they have only 18 steals. During the regular season, they averaged an NBA best 9.4 per game. In total, the Spurs are turning it over 14.3 times per game in this series -- a good number considering the Grizzlies forced a league-leading 16.3 turnovers per game during the regular season.
If the Spurs can continue neutralizing two of Memphis' biggest strengths, that will continue to force the Grizzlies to play near perfect basketball to get wins.
9. The Role Players Have Nowhere To Roll But Up
Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker all played well during the regular season. However, aside from the Big 3, an equally big reason why the Spurs were the top seed in the Western Conference was the play of the team's role players. The Spurs had better depth than in recent years in terms of talent, consistency and chemistry.
So far, the role players have been a big disappointment against the Grizzlies. Sure, the Grizzlies deserve a share of credit for limiting their effectiveness, but a lot of it is just sub par play. You can literally say each of the Spurs role players is playing worse than he did during the regular season. Is it too much to ask for one or two to up their level of play going forward in this series? I don't think so.
As a group, if you averaged Richard Jefferson, George Hill, Gary Neal, Antonio McDyess, Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair during the regular season, they produced 18.2 points and 2.7 assists per 48 minutes on 47.1% shooting from the floor. In the first three games, those numbers have plummeted to 16.1 points, 2.1 assists and 40.7% shooting.
8. Correctable Defensive Breakdowns
There's no denying that the duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol has been very difficult for the Spurs to defend. They're bigger, stronger and even more mobile than the Spurs' counterparts. But while their individual play has been stellar, I'd argue that Randolph and Gasol have hurt the Spurs even more by drawing so much attention away from the Grizzlies' perimeter players. As a result, Memphis is getting clean looks from the perimeter, which is allowing their shaky shooters to hit for a higher than usual percentage.
The good news is that if the Spurs clean up their simple mistakes in defensive rotations, the open shots they have been allowing will begin to disappear.
I know you are saying to yourself: "But timvp, the Spurs have been bad defensively all season long. Why would that suddenly change?"
Good question. However, the defensive breakdowns on the perimeter we have seen this series have mostly been brought upon due to the many double-teams the coaching staff has utilized. It's not an issue of lack of effort or lack of personnel -- rather, it's more mental. And as the series progresses, the Spurs will get better and better about knowing where to rotate out of double-teams.
7. Tony Allen Is A Non-Factor
Tony Allen, who was the arguably his team's MVP in their late season sprint to the finish, has been nearly silent this series. Well, he has made some noise with his single-digit IQ take that Ginobili is faking his elbow injury. But on the court, he hasn't done much to hinder the Spurs.
More bluntly, San Antonio is happy whenever Allen is on the court. His overplaying defensive style actually plays into Ginobili's hands. On offense, the Spurs routinely leave him to double-team other players -- and Allen hasn't done anything to make the Spurs pay for that strategy. If anything, the Spurs should probably pay even less attention to him in halfcourt settings.
It's no accident that the Spurs have outscored the Grizlies by 11 points when Allen has been on the court this series. Even better: In the 40 minutes Ginobili and Allen have been on the court at the same time, the Spurs have outscored the Grizzlies by 27 points.
The more Tony Allen and his mouth, the better.
6. Life With The Elbow To Improve
Speaking of Ginobili's elbow injury, one would expect that he'll gradually get more comfortable with that contraption on his right arm as this series goes along. The more comfortable he gets, the more the Spurs can lean on him. Ginobili has been the team's main difference-maker all season long -- and that has continued to be true versus the Grizzlies.
The more Manu Ginobili and his elbow, the better.
5. Experience Will Become Increasingly More Important
While I believe an edge in experience can definitely be overstated early in a playoff series, I think it will become more noticeable as this series tightens. I point to the Hornets series in 2008 as an example. That was another young team with limited experience that executed perfectly early on in the series ... but come Game 6 and Game 7, New Orleans became much less precise.
Can we automatically expect the same to happen this series? Of course not. But would anyone be surprised if the Grizzlies found it more difficult to flawlessly stick to their gameplan as the pressure mounts?
4. Rhythm Is Understandably A Work In Progress
Let us look at the big picture. Truthfully, the Spurs peaked in December and, prior to the playoffs, they hadn't gone all out or performed with a sense of urgency since January -- largely due to playing with such a huge lead in the standings. Since then, the Spurs have mostly gone through the motions. Mix in the injuries to Duncan and Ginobili and it's not a shock that the Spurs have been slow to get it into gear for the postseason.
This isn't like most years where the Spurs struggled early in the regular season and then kicked it into gear after the All-Star break. In those years, the Spurs peaked after March. Thus, it'd be somewhat foolish to expect these Spurs to be at their usual level entering the playoffs.
There's not a button to push to transform into playoff mode -- especially for this team that relies so much of timing, ball-movement and shooting. Yes, losing two of their first three playoff games is frustrating. It's scary. But considering the cir stances, it's also understandable. Thankfully, there's enough time to bounce back and attempt to reach the peak level of play once again.
3. Tim Duncan's Defense Is Surging
I'm not sure if Duncan entered this series with the appropriate level of fear on the defensive end. Gasol made him pay for ignoring him in Game 1. Duncan's defense improved in Game 2. By Game 3, Duncan's defense was at times dominant. He's running harder. He's getting better position. He's being more physical. He's protecting the rim better. Duncan is even doing good work out on the perimeter.
If Randolph continues to prove to be a tough cover, Duncan has shown an ability to slow him down. Gasol's success against him seems to be diminishing by the quarter. We've seen all season how well Duncan can play on defense when he doesn't have to carry the offensive load. As the team around him picks it up offensively, expect Duncan to be able to expend even more energy on the other end. That wouldn't be good news for the Grizzlies.
2. The Three-Point Shooting Will Come Around
It has been pointed out a thousand times but here are the numbers again: The Spurs led the league in three-point percentage at 39.7%. Against the Grizzlies, they are shooting 31.9%. Their three-point makes have also been down -- from 8.4 per game to a total of 15 in the first three contests.
Tip your hat to the Grizzlies for making it part of their gameplan to limit San Antonio's shooters. But only tip your hat so far. The Spurs are getting quality looks. Perhaps more importantly, with a little bit better ball-movement, the Spurs can easily get a handful of additional open three-point attempts.
Sometimes poor three-point shooting in the playoffs can be attributed to being intimidated by the situation or being afraid to fail. I didn't see much of that in the first three games. Once a few long balls drop, I'm hopeful that the floodgates will open.
1. Tony Parker Will Bounce Back
There's no other way to say it: Tony Parker has been awful this series. Fortunately, there's nothing in Parker's history that would indicate that he would struggle for an entire playoff series ... and the Frenchman has been at this playoff thing for a while now. He's getting good shots, he just has to start taking advantage. Once he regains his confidence, I have no doubt that he'll be able to find open shooters like he usually does.
How can the team help Parker get out of his slump? Drawing up plays to get Parker open jumpers early could do wonders. Parker has hit only one jumpshot in the first three games. If he sees a couple go down, that could ignite his all-around game.
Make no mistake, the Spurs need Parker playing at a high level to win this series. I, for one, think he has it in him.
Play a smart, physical brand of basketball.
Limit the miscues on the defensive end.
Rediscover the offensive cohesion.
Get the rhythm back on track.
Attain victory in Game 4.
Get this thing rollin'.
Believe.
Today is Duncan`s b-day
I really really really hope you're correct!
Either way, good quality journalism about your side is always a pleasure to read
Always.
Thanks for the calm reasoning and insight. And, Happy Birthday. Hope you've had a great day, and start a great year off with a win tonight.
Nice one LJ.I was getting tired of reading all the "Spurs Suck", "Pop should be fired" type posts.
Believe!
Honestly not worried about them coming back to win, there's no way the Grizzlies would be able to close out this team, even if they were up 3-1 I can't see them getting that 4th
GREAT post timvp! I will never stop believing!Happy birthday, and Go Spurs Go!
The thing that makes me quiet and a bit scared at the same time is that the Spurs seem to be as confident as you are right now. That's a good sign of course, but it could lead to come out without the right at ude. The Spurs need to come out hungry. The 1st quarter will be the most important one of Game 4, by far.
Happy Birthday, Timmy!! Mine is tomorrow. So you better get this victory!!!!
Well done. Agreed on all points, particularly the last bit about Parker. The Grizzlies are going to go under the pick for sure; the Spurs need to run some plays to get him some mid-range jumpers. I wouldn't have a problem if they just kept running it until he started making them.
Nice post. Memphis does get credit for playing their game. But I agree that they have peaked. They are playing pretty flawless (except for their shooting the last two games). They made shots when it counted though.
Spurs, while the games will still be tough and tight, should be able to up their level of play significantly. Especially TP. I know people say Manu is the tough guy, but I truly believe TP is the Spurs toughest player.
I said before the series that if the Spurs win the rebounding battle, they win games. It hasn't worked out yet, but I fully believe that if they continue to out rebound, that it is the most important individual stat.
Lego.
Also, I still think it's ridiculous we have to believe to beat Memphis. But I digress.
I believe the Grizzlies are done in 6. I truly do. I just don't know about the 2nd round, but I guess it's irrelevant at this point because they need to take care of Memphis first. Please shut these ers up Spurs, they need to be humbled.
the Grizz, Go Spurs.
The thing that worries me is that Memphis has not shot well either (the last two games). What if they shoot well? The rebounding can quickly become a problem as well. How much trouble would the Spurs have been in if they didn't out rebound MEM? Spurs shot 47 free throws and lost in game 1.
Point is, while I agree with the points, I also think there are a few problems.
It's definitely not very comforting, but almost everything is playing to their favor in this series. So many variable factors have gone their way. The Spurs, assuming they advance, can only get better throughout the playoffs, however long that lasts. Sooner or later the bench has to get hot for at least a couple of games. Let's see what happens.
Big up.
Spurs got this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9Dir...e_gdata_player
Tony Allen don't you blow your trumpet until you hear from me.
Ain't no grave......
Last edited by Walton Buys Off Me; 04-25-2011 at 06:40 PM.
The Duncan-era Spurs have never won a series, down 2-1 when they have surrendered homecourt advantage. In the Duncan era, San Antonio has been down 2-1 seven times. They've come back to win once, in 2008 against the New Orleans Hornets, when they did not have homecourt advantage to begin with.
NBA TV currently says that the Duncan era Spurs have never LOST a playoff series with homecourt advantage after being down 2-1. Losing two of the first three implies loss of HCA, right?
I agree with all but one thing.
If it was Manu or Tim i wouldn't doubt they would bounce back and fight till the end, but Parker... i feel he just doesn't have it in him. Seems too focused on him and his struggles to get over it.
Happy Birthday LJ...
Happy Birthday Timmy...may pop give you ten minutes of court time next to Tiago...and ten LESS minutes of Bonner....
The momentum will swing the other way starting tonight.
Great Read!!!
I don't agree with the Tony Allen part.
He's not a scorer...But he can finish strong at the rim with or without contact. When his defender doubles off of him....Where does he go? Cutting straight to the rim. Which is way more effective than hanging around the perimeter ala RJ..
Nice Thread as always
GO SPURS GO
Go Spurs Go?
I'm not counting our guys out yet, but time is starting to run out. Just win!
We got this ! Go Spurs Go!
I believe because I think, tonight, the Spurs are going to......
SUIT UP!
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