Key to winning:

[Jimcs50]

Spurs need to hold Detroit to < 45% shooting.

That is the threshold in shooting percentage at which the Spurs are undefeated (11-0) in the playoffs and 53-2 for the season. One of those two losses came to the Pistons, but TD only played 1 min in that game, so that loss has a huge asterisk.

One thing that does not ac ulate rust is defense, so the layoff should not effect the Spurs' defense. Therefore, I look for SA to hold Detroit to that low shooting percentage, which will be a little easier than against Phoenix.

[ObiwanGinobili]

I found it I found it!!!

[whottt]

Nice research Jim. I think you have a point there. That seems to be a very meaningful stat.

[PD!]

Three things:

1. Most of those stats come against WC teams, which I'm just guessing score more points and have a generally higher FG% than EC teams. You only have two games against the pisstons, so there's not much statistically significant there, especially since you point out TD only played a minute.

2. From another thread, I see that detroit's FG% in the playoffs is 43%, so holding them above their average isn't going to work very well unless there's little defense played by both teams, allowing you a better % as well.

3. Playoff percentages go down because defense goes up.

You better hold them under 40%.

[boutons]

"not ac ulate rust is defense,"

In theory, yes, but very rarely have I noted in the season that when the Spurs suck on offense (ugly win, or lose, shoot bad FG%age) has their defense been stellar. ie, the idea that the Spurs defense will hold while the offense is ineffective, until the offense gets going, just doesn't work out that way in practice.

ie, the Spurs usually play to the same level on both ends, sucky or superb. The intensity and energy and focus required to play shut-down defense simply doesn't evaporate when the run down to the other end, so the offense runs well, too. If the Spurs come out "rusty" tonight, they'll be rusty on both ends, not just on offense.

If the Spurs defense can hold the Pistons to low 40s' in FG%, then probably the Spurs offense will be clicking along as well, GAMEOVER and Spurs W.

[Jimcs50]

12-0 now