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interesting coming from a heat homer. his stats must be telling him something
Mavs in 6It was a nice start for the Heat, and between their 1-0 lead and their home-court advantage, they're certainly in a strong position. But let's not start the coronation just yet.
Here's the thing: Dallas didn't play that badly. In fact, if you're sifting through the wreckage for positive takeaways from Game 1, you can find a lot to like.
If you just pick out two lines from the box score -- 3-point shooting and bench scoring -- you'd think Dallas lost by 40. The Heat's much-maligned bench outscored Dallas' vaunted unit 27-17, the first time all season the Miami subs were plus-10 against an opponent. Obviously, if that advantage holds up, the Mavs are dead ducks, but we have little reason to believe it will.
Similarly, Miami shot 11-of-24 on 3-pointers while Dallas was 9-of-22. And in this case, it was the players taking them that are the real exclamation point. LeBron James shot 4-of-5 on 3s and Dwyane Wade shot 2-of-4; those are generally shots you want the Heat's superstars to take. Two of them, in particular, were unlikely -- a crazy fadeaway by James to end the third quarter, and a contested, off the dribble triple by Wade over Jason Kidd in the fourth.
But by and large, the Heat were taking shots Dallas wanted them to take. Miami had only 28 points in the paint, and the only reason it was that high was because of its 16 offensive rebounds.
The fact that those tough Heat shots went in can throw off your perspective on the game. Instead, take a step back and look at the questions Dallas had entering the series. Most of them had positive answers in Game 1:
Would the Mavs be able to play Jason Terry? Yes. He played 33 minutes, and at no time were you thinking, "This is a horrible defensive mismatch, they've gotta get Terry out of there." Terry, in fact, was the only Dallas player to avoid a negative plus/minus; he finished dead even.
While Mavs coach Rick Carlisle alluded postgame to the need to play zone because of some challenging defensive matchups, and the role that may have played in Miami's 16 offensive rebounds, there were only a couple of occasions when the Heat found Wade with a mismatch against Terry. Wade, whom some Miami scribes suspect is not right physically, also had trouble beating Kidd off the dribble.
Between the defense of James on Terry and some cold shooting that he supplied all by himself, the Dallas guard didn't have one of his better games -- 3-of-10 shooting, one assist. But he'll have better ones. The fact that Dallas could keep him on the floor so long is a very encouraging sign.
Would the Mavs' starters be able to compete? Yes. Coming into this series I was worried that Dallas' starters -- who have a negative plus/minus this postseason, despite the team's overall success -- would mount nightly deficits against a Heat five-man unit that has performed very well. But in Game 1, Dallas' starting five posted a respectable minus-2 plus/minus in their 9½ minutes together on the court. That isn't great, but since the Mavs' bench should have the advantage on most nights, it is enough for the Mavs to win.
Would Miami shut down Dirk? No. Nowitzki mostly did as he pleased, scoring 27 points on 18 shots and committing only two turnovers. While he was only 7-of-18 from the floor, he earned 12 free throw attempts and made all of them. Plus, as usual, he drew swarms of defensive attention, which created space for Dallas' other shooters.
By the way, it looks like Nowitzki's torn tendon in the middle finger of his left (non-shooting) hand won't be a major problem. I did some research, and this is a pretty rare injury for basketball players, but others have been able to play through it. Clippers guard Eric Gordon tore a tendon in the ring finger of his right (shooting) hand in January and kept playing, albeit not for long -- a different injury knocked him out a couple of days later. In the more distant past, Portland guard Brandon Roy suffered a similar injury against Dallas in December 2008 on his shooting hand -- and was so affected that he scored a career-high 52 points against Phoenix four days later. Nowitzki's injury isn't good news, obviously, but I don't think it makes Dallas' outlook dramatically worse.
So if all three of those questions had positive answers, what happened?
Well, a lot of the difference was simply Dallas' clanging shots it usually makes. The Mavs were just 16-of-45 on 2s; in particular, Miami's defense seemed to erase those clean forays down the lane for J.J. Barea (added bonus for Miamians: If Barea keeps struggling like this, there's a chance Zuleyka Rivera becomes available).
But you can also run through a highlight reel of makeable shots that the Mavs simply missed, with Brendan Haywood's rim-check dunk attempt topping the list. Dallas' scorching four-man bench unit of Terry, Barea, Haywood and Peja Stojakovic shot 4-for-22 in Game 1, and again, most of their looks were quality attempts.
As for the 3-point differentials, two questions legitimately can be asked. First, the Mavs gave up way too many corner 3s, the easiest kind, and that's a formula for defeat if it continues. Miami had an 11-7 edge in corner 3 attempts and an 8-2 advantage in corner 2s; even the likes of James and Wade become potent threats if their 3s are coming from the corners. Included was one particularly egregious blown rotation where LeBron had time to take a comfort dribble, check his email, and compose a sonnet about the crab dribble before firing away.
Second, one wonders if the clock has struck midnight for Peja. He was brutal, missing all three 3-point attempts despite little resistance on each, face-planting on an attempted dribble drive and committing three fouls in 14 minutes.
Nonetheless, all the big-picture takeaways from the opener have to leave Dallas feeling fairly comfortable. By and large, the Mavs were able to play their game on Tuesday; they just happened to play it badly, and the Heat got some unlikely shots to go in.
We don't know if those situations will play out the same in Game 2, obviously, but what we can say for certain is that Miami's Game 1 win was built on advantages in areas like 3-point shooting, offensive rebounding and bench points that the Heat are highly unlikely to sustain throughout the series. All told, there are far worse ways to go down 1-0.
interesting coming from a heat homer. his stats must be telling him something
LOL at relying on Hollinger for ! PERIOD.
Did Mark Cuban ghostwrite this article?
This is like saying, "Yeah, we lost. But we're better looking than those guys. So there."
There's no statistical reference for choking.
If my Aunt Minnie had balls she would be my Uncle Manny!
I guess he hasn't seen Miami's defense. Force Dirk baseline, series over...
funny how dumbasses like DPG said I had a total homer take on the game, whereas a known hater of the Mavs in Hollinger had basically identical takes to mine.
DPG, teabagged again
Every gleam of hope...
mavs in 6 tbh
Dpg wrong
bout
dem
mavs
It was a homer take. Many more pundits agree with me than you. Saying Dallas defended better than MIA is a take and nowhere did hollinger agree with you on that.
Hollinger is a moron, but the Mavs will win the series in 6.
Why don't you tell us to book it?
Already did, brah...try to keep up.
Maybe after you change you prediction for the 8th time you can tell us to book that one too, dumbass.
Like I booked your mom last night?
Oh, he didn't?
So he didn't say the exact words "Dallas defended Miami better than Miami defended Dallas", but its pretty obvious that is what he was saying throughout the article. I apologize for your inability to read and comprehend anything beneath the surface.
So the mavs played a good game and still lost.
The Heat played a better game and won.
If you truly think Dallas defended better than Miami, I don't know what to tell you. That doesn't mean they were bad, it just means they weren't any better than MIA.
Mavs defended better than the Heat imo
It's true that the Mavs forced Miami to take the shots that they wanted them to take, they just made them. What else can you do when LeBron is tossing up an off-balance fadeaway three that goes in right before the third quarter buzzer? That was worth one possession.
He's been doing like that throught the entire playoffs now. I honestly wasn't surprised to see that shot go in and barely touch any net in the process.
Scary thing is that Wade and LeBron were kinda pedestrian by their standards. A lot of things went right for the Mavs in Game 1 and the Heat still iced this in the final four minutes.
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