RIP: The Texas Economy is Overrated Myth

[DarrinS]

Very good blog entry. Lots of data, graphs, etc.

http://www.politicalmathblog.com/?p=1590

My favorite part:

My advice to anti-Perry advocates is this: Give up talking about Texas jobs. Texas is an incredible outlier among the states when it comes to jobs. Not only are they creating them, they're creating ones with higher wages.

[CosmicCowboy]

No . With all the illegal immigrants we need more elementary school principals.

[ElNono]

Do you really need that many charts and graphs to explain why Texas having a 8%+ unemployment rate is better than North Dakota at 3.2%?

Might aswell go with the official data:
http://www.bls.gov/ro6/fax/minwage_tx.htm

[CubanMustGo]

• Roughly 39,000 out of the 302,000 new jobs created in Texas since the recovery began -- or 13 percent -- were in government. And 82 percent of those new government jobs were in local government. Texas's public sector has expanded by more than 2 percent in the past two years -- very nearly as fast as its private sector.
• Another 39,500 -- just over 13 percent -- were in oil and gas extraction, or in support activities for mining, a category that includes oil-field services companies.
• Even more -- 78,000, or 26 percent -- were in home health-care services or "ambulatory health-care services," while an additional 64,000, or 21 percent, were in "administrative and support services". Another 43,000, or 14 percent, were in "employment services."
• And 24,000, or 7.9 percent, were in "food services and drinking places" -- restaurants and bars, essentially.

Together, those categories account for nearly 95 percent of the new jobs created in Texas.

The manufacturing sector, which nationwide has seen renewed growth in recent years, has lost 1,800 jobs in Texas over the same period.

Services (driven largely by a growing population), government (ditto), and jobs generated by skyrocketing oil prices, which Perry can't take credit for.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/...&asset=&ccode=

[DarrinS]

Services (driven largely by a growing population), government (ditto), and jobs generated by skyrocketing oil prices, which Perry can't take credit for.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/...&asset=&ccode=

This is the next talking point, now that McJobs myth is busted.

[ElNono]

This is the next talking point, now that McJobs myth is busted.

But it isn't busted.

[CosmicCowboy]

Manufacturing is MOVING to Texas. See Toyota, Caterpillar, etc.

[DarrinS]

But it isn't busted.

If it's not by now, you're not open to any new information.

[ElNono]

If it's not by now, you're not open to any new information.

I am. I just posted some information about McJobs.

[ElNono]

Manufacturing is MOVING to Texas. See Toyota, Caterpillar, etc.

It's just closer to the next step: Mexico...

Seriously, props to Toyota for opening factories all around: Texas, Indiana and Mississippi.

[ElNono]

Disclaimer: I own a Toyota-built car.

[DarrinS]

I am. I just posted some information about McJobs.

Yes. Do you know how they get that data?

Technical Note

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' data on minimum wage earners are derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a nationwide sample survey of households that includes questions enabling the identification of hourly-paid workers and their hourly wage rate. Data in this summary are annual averages.

Let's look at the data. Here's a link: Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates

Texas median hourly wage is $15.14... almost exactly in the middle of the pack (28th out of 51 regions). Given that they've seen exceptional job growth (and these other states have not) this does not seem exceptionally low.

But the implication here is that the new jobs in Texas, the jobs that Texas seems to stand alone in creating at such a remarkable pace, are low paying jobs and don't really count.

If this were true, all these new low-paying jobs should be dragging down the wages data, right? But if we look at the wages data since the beginning of the recession (click to enlarge, states are listed alphabetically)

And it turns out that the opposite is true. Since the recession started hourly wages in Texas have increased at a 6th fastest pace in the nation.

[ElNono]

He's building a strawman all by himself. Nobody is saying that 'low paying jobs ... don't really count'. They do count. But they're low paying jobs, as the Dept of Labour statistics clearly show.

And no, low paying jobs don't drag down wages. High unemployment (bigger supply of prospective employees) drag down wages.

Ranking 6th means when the nominal hourly wage growth in the nation since the recession has been marginal at best.

That's not new data. It's taking the data and building a giant straw.

The unemployment rate is STILL 8%+. The McJobs are still McJobs.

What I'm not surprised is that you ate all that hook, line and sinker though.

[ElNono]

1 in 12 people are without a job and the jobs we're creating are , but HEY, we're growing marginally faster!

[RandomGuy]

He's building a strawman all by himself. Nobody is saying that 'low paying jobs ... don't really count'. They do count. But they're low paying jobs, as the Dept of Labour statistics clearly show.

And no, low paying jobs don't drag down wages. High unemployment (bigger supply of prospective employees) drag down wages.

Ranking 6th means when the nominal hourly wage growth in the nation since the recession has been marginal at best.

That's not new data. It's taking the data and building a giant straw.

The unemployment rate is STILL 8%+. The McJobs are still McJobs.

What I'm not surprised is that you ate all that hook, line and sinker though.

Pretty much. You can always expect Darrin to be the last person in the world to realize that.

All you have to do is talk to him at any length and see the list of ad hominem and strawman logical fallacies.

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost...20&postcount=2

[RandomGuy]

Sometimes, in my more paranoid moments, I honestly wonder if Darrin secretly isn't a leftie, whose only purpose here is to constantly say stupid to show how badly some conservatives reason and how illogically they view the world.

Sadly, I don't think it is an act.

[ElNono]

BTW, I'm not mocking Texas (a state I like to visit) or anything like that. They're not a 'miracle' economic state, but they're also far from the worst.

[RandomGuy]

BTW, I'm not mocking Texas (a state I like to visit) or anything like that. They're not a 'miracle' economic state, but they're also far from the worst.

None taken. It is what it is, and that appears to be little more than simple population growth, and a reflection of overall US trends towards McJobs.

Funnily enough, the liberal enclave of Austin does pretty well for itself.

[coyotes_geek]

He's building a strawman all by himself. Nobody is saying that 'low paying jobs ... don't really count'. They do count. But they're low paying jobs, as the Dept of Labour statistics clearly show.

If there wasn't anyone trying to say that low paying jobs don't really count then 'yeah but they're low paying jobs' wouldn't be the pre-programmed auto response that it is anytime someone wants to mention job growth in Texas.

Jobs that underskilled, undereducated people can hold are not a bad thing, yet it's clearly being referenced as a negative against Perry. Not that job growth in Texas has been about Perry, but that's a separate conversation...........

[ElNono]

If there wasn't anyone trying to say that low paying jobs don't really count then 'yeah but they're low paying jobs' wouldn't be the pre-programmed auto response that it is anytime someone wants to mention job growth in Texas.

Jobs that underskilled, undereducated people can hold are not a bad thing, yet it's clearly being referenced as a negative against Perry. Not that job growth in Texas has been about Perry, but that's a separate conversation...........

The problem there has nothing to do with jobs, wages, job creation or growth though. The problem is the dilution of actual discussion into little snippets without substance (McJobs! Flip Flopper! Obamacare! Goodhair!).

[Agloco]

1 in 12 people are without a job and the jobs we're creating are , but HEY, we're growing marginally faster!

And I'm assured of getting my Mc-quarter pounder in a timely fashion. I vote status-quo tbh.

[DarrinS]

And it turns out that the opposite is true. Since the recession started hourly wages in Texas have increased at a 6th fastest pace in the nation.

[DarrinS]

None taken. It is what it is, and that appears to be little more than simple population growth, and a reflection of overall US trends towards McJobs.

Funnily enough, the liberal enclave of Austin does pretty well for itself.

Its completely logical for people to uproot from New York and California, and move clear across the country for Walmart and McDonalds jobs.

But hey, stay on message.



Take a trip down to Carizzo Springs.

http://www.ksat.com/video/28829702/index.html

[ElNono]

It's just as logical as having more population, making more (which translates into more taxpayers paying more taxes), with a budget hole that needs to be plugged with stimulus money.

Either you don't have said more population making more, or you have raising wasteful deficit spending (or you're in a combination somewhere in between with the latter outpacing the former).

Which one is it?

[baseline bum]

And I'm assured of getting my Mc-quarter pounder in a timely fashion. I vote status-quo tbh.

Damn, that's gotta be the worst burger you can buy tbh. It's must be 60/40 beef or something. Strange, since the rest of the McDonalds burgers suck much less.