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The 2nd and 3rd chart are the same... wrong link?
In a recent thread, Mel_13 had the following request:It sounded interesting, so I researched the numbers.
I present the results with limited commentary to allow the numbers to speak for themselves. Plus, I'm interested in the conclusions others draw from these numbers.
Here are the bigman combinations in the order of most minutes played together:
Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair
424.96 minutes
103.46 points per 100 possessions
100.74 points allowed per 100 possessions
91.38 possessions per 48 minutes
94.54 points per 48 minutes
92.17 points allowed per 48 minutes
Tiago Splitter and Matt Bonner
346.93 minutes
113.69 points per 100 possessions
99.07 points allowed per 100 possessions
89.93 possessions per 48 minutes
102.25 points per 48 minutes
88.82 points allowed per 48 minutes
Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner
144.86 minutes
105.07 points per 100 possessions
95.13 points allowed per 100 possessions
91.45 possessions per 48 minutes
96.09 points per 48 minutes
84.16 points allowed per 48 minutes
Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter
98.92 minutes
97.81 points per 100 possessions
103.87 points allowed per 100 possessions
88.80 possessions per 48 minutes
86.86 points per 48 minutes
91.22 points allowed per 48 minutes
Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair
64.22 minutes
106.35 points per 100 possessions
104.54 points allowed per 100 possessions
94.18 possessions per 48 minutes
100.16 points per 48 minutes
103.15 points allowed per 48 minutes
Tiago Splitter and Small Ball
51.94 minutes
105.05 points per 100 possessions
102.80 points allowed per 100 possessions
91.49 possessions per 48 minutes
96.11 points per 48 minutes
101.66 points allowed per 48 minutes
DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner
50.62 minutes
100.00 points per 100 possessions
112.12 points allowed per 100 possessions
91.98 possessions per 48 minutes
91.98 points per 48 minutes
105.25 points allowed per 48 minutes
Tim Duncan and Small Ball
47.84 minutes
97.32 points per 100 possessions
87.78 points allowed per 100 possessions
97.32 possessions per 48 minutes
93.31 points per 48 minutes
79.26 points allowed per 48 minutes
DeJuan Blair and Small Ball
44.71 minutes
106.02 points per 100 possessions
121.43 points allowed per 100 possessions
89.1 possessions per 48 minutes
94.48 points per 48 minutes
109.51 points allowed per 48 minutes
This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs score when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs average 106.0 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs allow when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs average 101.3 points allowed per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
This charts shows how many points the Spurs outscore their opponents per 100 possessions when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
P.S.
Bonus points to whoever can take that data and make a useful graph. Tried a couple ways but wasn't too helpful.
Last edited by timvp; 02-10-2012 at 04:59 PM.
The 2nd and 3rd chart are the same... wrong link?
Bonner-Splitter rules
Yeah I think wrong link. He went to go pick up our son from school, I'll tell him to fix it when he gets back.
Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner averaging -8 PtsAll per 100 compared to Tim Duncan and Splitter.
Additionally, they allow less than 85PPG.
While I actually don't agree with this stat, the Bonner "1-dimensional ty defender" style haters really need to let that one soak in.
So, Splitter or Duncan(a post up threat at Centre) plus Matt Bonner(Floor spacing efficiency king) is a good combination. Who would've thought that?
Keeping that combination of skill sets out there constantly would have great value, which is why Lorbek(next year) or a trade for another floor spacing big(mountainballer's Ersan Ilyasova suggestion) has so much appeal.
I think most people on this board would put Splitter and Duncan as our 2 best bigs, and they are. But the best combination of bigs is Bonner and one of those guys.
Imagine you're getting takeaways. Splitter an Duncan are both burgers, Bonner is Fries. You prefer each of the burgers, but if you're eating two things, you probably want a burger and fries.
Really, really nice work. And much appreciated. Three words just leap to mind, after looking at that:
DaJuan. Blair's. Defense.
Maybe we have our reason why Splitter isn't starting. It's because pairing DaJuan with Duncan at least hides his defensive deficiencies a little bit. It's pretty obvious he can't be out there with a small lineup.
2 best big man combinations are TD/Bonner and Tiago/Bonner. That includes defense!
Fire Pop
Man, Tim Duncan sucks.
Very interesting stats, thanks for assembling them. There's a lot of nuggets to be unpacked there, and it might take some time. Some quick takeaways:
-Worst defensive pairing: Bonner/Blair (expected)
-Best defensive big: Duncan (no surprise, despite reports of his demise)
-Worst offensive combination (not including small ball): Duncan/Splitter
--This is a pretty interesting one, and probably the reason Pop has limited this combination. The $1,000 question: is this due to a lack of chemistry and playing time together, or are there true problems in style that make this duo bog down the offense?
-While timvp's last link isn't working currently, it appears the best +/- (excluding small ball) are Duncan/Bonner and Splitter/Bonner. We already know Bonner is the king of +/-, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise. However, it does bring up some intriguing arguments about what the best in-game (not necessarily crunch-time) combinations are. Obviously, the current bench that includes Splitter/Bonner (currently along with Green, Neal, and one other) is a viable option. But another one that springs to mind is this:
Starters: Parker/Neal/Leonard/Duncan/Bonner
Bench: (Green or Ford)/Manu/Jefferson/Splitter/Blair
Downside: Bonner guarding starting big men, but is Blair much better? Also, one might question the defensive chemistry of that second unit.
Upside: Bonner/Duncan combo has done well. You keep Leonard in the starting lineup to guard the opposing team's best player. The addition of Neal and Bonner makes up for 3-pointers lost from Jefferson out of the lineup. Also, you make Manu the true floor general of the 2nd unit, and pair him with two players who feed off of him well, Jefferson and Blair.
It would be a huge undertaking but normalizing performance to the opposing defenses average performance would be very insightful.
My first reaction is 'Goddamnit Pop, Free Splitter,' but then I think that Duncan is facing first teams and Splitter is up against backups.
Good stuff nonetheless, sir. I love how sabermetrics is making a push in pro basketball. There are hundreds and hundreds of possessions to create a very large sample size.
Damn, shouldn't have posted and ran.
Fixed now. Apologies.
Minute distribution
Points per 100 possessions
Points allowed per 100 possessions
Possessions per 48 minutes
Points per 48 minutes
Points allowed per 48 minutes
Last edited by ElNono; 02-10-2012 at 05:23 PM.
I think the Bonner/Splitter stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. They often play against the other team's backups too, so their numbers will look more impressive than they really are.
As for Bonner's defense, the problem isn't necessarily that he's a terrible defender. The problem is people THINK he's a terrible defender, and thus go right at him every game with confidence. At this level what separates the great from the good and the good from the average is often confidence. Every guy who goes against Bonner thinks he's gonna dominate him. Also, Bonner gives up too many offensive rebounds and the refs give him zero respect.
Nice work on assembling all those stats. One thing the stats prove that I think most have come to admit is Bonner is having a pretty good year. He started slow and looked awful at the very beginning but he has really turned it around. The question becomes can he keep up this level of play in the playoffs. We have been burned before.
The Tim-Tiago numbers do not surprise me. It appears to me that Pop has not figured out how to use them together offensively. Their last appearance together looked promising. They alternated between the two of them in the low block and completely shut down the paint on defense. I still believe this is our best lineup if configured correctly. If Tiago is not going to start then Bonner should at least be promoted. Blair is not cutting it.
I also think a big reason for the offensive struggles of the Duncan/Splitter combination is not having Manu. Obviously that's the case for every combination, but my point is that if we have him and Tony in there, it would allow us to have a dominant defense inside and still have enough scoring from the guards where not having a floor-spacing big is as much of a weakness.
Nice work
I still don't think Duncan and Splitter have played together enough to accurately compute the true data of them two.
Also, to break it down even farther, I'm curious about each combinations points in the paint allowed per 100 possessions/ per 48 minutes.
Maybe this explains why Pop keeps Duncan or Splitter on the floor at all times. For Bonner to be so good we have to understand that he does spread the floor and on most nights he must contribute on defense or else we would not have as much difference in the defense of all the combinations. Also, our second unit has seen a lot action against other teams first team. Maybe we have a better set of bigs than people give credit. maybe we are better than even some of the Spurs fans think.
God I must be such an idiot defending Bonner for 2 years straight. He sucks.
yeah, this is just about proof positive that the haters are flat out, indisputably wrong and don't know as much as they think they do about what cons utes good defense.
additionally, this calls into question whether bonner really HAS choked in the playoffs. He may not have shot it well but that doesn't mean his d has been inadequate or he has not continued to spread the floor.
Some trends stick like a sore thumb... Blair is without a doubt the worst defender of the bunch...
There's some discrepancy on offense between per 100 and per 48, but Splitter is somewhat the constant there. I believe it has to do with the system being built specifically for a true low-post treat surrounded by shooters. Tim has gone away from the low-post game a bit as he has aged, so not surprised to see the effectiveness in scoring increasing with Tiago on that role.
I'll keep peeking and updating the post with any other observations...
You want to post his numbers in the playoffs so we can determine that?
As a regular season player, Bonner is really underrated IMHO.
A problem, as clearly illustrated by timvp numbers is that he must be used next to a competent bigman (Tim or Tiago... sorry Dejuan).
He can play some defense but needs a true defensive big next to him. Paired with Blair, he gets exposed and his terrible. On offense he needs a big who can use the space created by Bonner's presence.
Bonner as a starter is problematic. You can't match him with top PF and hope he will not get destroyed.
So I guess playing him with Splitter is the best choice.
My concern with that is about the playoffs time... What happen with toughest defense and shortened rotation. I am not too optimistic there but who knows... maybe the Bonner/Splitter combo will also work in the PO
I would rather be familiar with the numbers first. I'm not sure if he has or he hasn't officially choked, at this point.
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