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Offense wins championship?
Typically, Spurs fans get on me for being too pessimistic about San Antonio in the playoffs. For example, last season I was scoffed at for suggesting the Grizzlies were going to make it a tough series. But against the Jazz, I simply don't see any reason to doubt the Spurs. For the first time I can remember, I'm predicting a sweep.
Here are ten reasons why, barring injuries, I don't see the Jazz winning a game in this series.
10. Appropriate Fear
The Grizzlies disaster last year will provide Pop more than enough ammunition to make sure his team doesn't look past the Jazz. I'm confident the Spurs will be ready to roll come the opening tip of Game 1.
9. The Jazz Will Run
The Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA. The Jazz, too, are above average when it comes to pace. Usually, the Spurs have to make it a point to try to speed up the game, but the Jazz are one of the few playoff teams that will try to get out and run with the Spurs.
8. Three-Pointers Will Rain
The Jazz were one of the top ten worst teams in the league at preventing three-point attempts. And with talk of the Jazz attempting to play three bigmen simultaneously, I expect that alignment to limit their ability to defend the three-point line even more. The Spurs -- who finished No. 2 in three-pointers made and No. 1 in three-point percentage -- should be able to exploit that weakness.
7. The Spurs are Improved in the Middle
Last season, Memphis was able to bully the Spurs in the paint. And while the Jazz are loaded with quality bigmen, these Spurs have the personnel to hang. Duncan is still a great one-on-one defender in the paint, plus he protects the rim very well. Boris Diaw can defend down low. Off the bench, Tiago Splitter can continue to provide a strong foundation when Duncan is resting. The Jazz doing much of their damage in the paint actually plays to a San Antonio strength now.
6. Tony Parker vs. Devin Harris
Once upon a time, Devin Harris gave Tony Parker a lot of trouble on both ends of the court. Nowadays, Harris is an average to below average defender. While Harris' scoring has been better of late, Parker is simply on another level. The last ten times these two players have gone against each other, the Spurs have won.
5. Perimeter Defense
The potential in the armor for San Antonio defensively is their perimeter defense against swingmen who can fill it up on the offensive end -- particularly those that utilize a lot of screens. But since the Jazz don't have any ace scorers at shooting guard or small forward, that's not much of a worry this series. And on the other side of the coin, who exactly do the Jazz think will be able to hang with Manu Ginobili? Raja Bell might be their best option but Bell stopped having success against Ginobili about a half decade ago.
4. The Art of the Foul
In normal cir stances, the Spurs have trouble getting to the free throw line. However, when they go against the Jazz, that won't be an issue. Only the Raptors send the opposition to the free throw line more than the Jazz. Add in the bonus efficiency that free throws provide and San Antonio's offense should have no issues producing. Conversely, the Spurs are the second best team at keeping opponents off the charity stripe. Against a Jazz team that needs free throw attempts to stay afloat offensively, that trait will come in handy.
3. Road Sweet Road
Utah is easily the worst road team in the playoffs, which is understandable for a young team whose best years are ahead. After the first two games of this series, as long as the Spurs are healthy, I'd be shocked if the Spurs aren't up 2-0. And while the Jazz are very strong at home, the Spurs have been unbelievable on the road lately. In non-forfeited games, San Antonio has lost a grand total of one game on the road since Jan. 29.
2. Utah's Offensive Rebounding Negated
The Jazz rely a lot on offensive rebounding. In fact, Utah is the second best offensive rebounding team in the NBA. One problem, though, for the Jazz: The Spurs are the best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. It won't be easy to grab defensive boards against the Jazz but if any team is capable, it's the Spurs.
1. Top Offense vs. Worst Defense
The Spurs have the best offensive team in the entire NBA. Of the teams that made the playoffs, the Jazz are statistically the worst of the bunch. This point alone is reason enough for supreme confidence.
Believe.
Offense wins championship?
I agree. The Spurs SHOULD sweep the Jazz, but things happen. IF the Jazz win a game, it's going to be either Game 3 or 4 back at their place. Spurs in 4, or 5....
Believe
It can seem like sending a team to the free throw line is always negative. But it can actually help the team that is doing the fouling by disrupting the other team on offense. The Grizzlies used that tactic when they won game 1 last year.4. The Art of the Foul
In normal cir stances, the Spurs have trouble getting to the free throw line. However, when they go against the Jazz, that won't be an issue. Only the Raptors send the opposition to the free throw line more than the Jazz. Add in the bonus efficiency that free throws provide and San Antonio's offense should have no issues producing. Conversely, the Spurs are the second best team at keeping opponents off the charity stripe. Against a Jazz team that needs free throw attempts to stay afloat offensively, that trait will come in handy.
Winning in 5 wouldn't bother me. But a sweep sure sounds nice.
Given the heroic efffort of the Jazz to win a close game against the Spurs in Utah, a game that had Duncan, Parker and Ginobili back in Texas getting some rest, I simply don't see how the Jazz will be able to even keep the final score within double digits. It was the rotten luck of the Jazz that they managed to win that game; there are good matchups and bad matchups, and this one is as good as last year's was bad.
I actually like the Jazz team; they'll be really good before too long, and I'm really impressed with Ty Corbin, but they don't have the horses, tbh.
Maybe I'm just a pessimist, but I can't see a sweep.
That's one I can agree with. I was expecting it to take a playoff loss or two before Pop came to his senses and benched Blair for either Diaw or Splitter.
Spurs' 3 point shooters are coming in suspect though. Neal is banged up if he even plays, Bonner is coasting into his playoff mode, Green has had long streaks of feast and of famine, it's the first playoffs for Leonard, etc.
Luckily Pop isn't being fair to the team this time around.
Harris has been a lot better of late, even defensively. I think people are dismissing him like the dismissed Conley, only Harris can be better.
I think Hayward is up for both challenges, though this being his first postseason, maybe he shrinks. But he's just an awesome player to watch on both sides of the ball. They have run him off screens and he can knock them down. He knocks down threes. He hits free throws. He passes the ball very well. On defense, he's long with quick feet, he can do ball denial like Ginobili did in his prime. Hayward is better defender than Bell at this point, probably by quite a bit. And even though it's his first postseason, he had big game pressure in the NCAAs and has been at his best this year as the Jazz were clawing their way into the playoffs.
I see the downside, they will foul and foul and foul and the refs won't call them as much as they should, especially in Utah. The Spurs could get frustrated by the hacking and non-calls and be thrown off their game.
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I feel good about the Spurs chances, but mostly because I have cautious optimism that Pop has turned a corner on his coaching career after several years of dubious if not outright disasterous postseason miscues. He's pretty much done this year what some of us had been asking for: play the young guys over some old crusty washed up vet (KL and Green over what could have been Josh Howard or some other has been). And playing the next best players the most minutes lately, meaning Diaw and Splitter more than Bonner and Blair.
At posters thinking it'll go to 5
Do not say it too early
Nothing is impossible although I think the spurs can sweep though
Knowing the spurs they will come out rusty game 1 and lose it early in the first quarter, and come back with the backside sweep.
I say it goes 5 especially because championship years were often started by losing the first game off the playoffs.
In the first round it does.
There's no way Ty Corbin is gonna coach a fast paced game against the Spurs he's gonna try and slow it down and pound it in the paint (Assuming we go big)
Zach Lowe adds his views on the matchups ..especially on the new found all bigs strategy that the Jazz adopted and whether it will affect the Spurs much at all.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...azz/index.html
Too much rides on Matt Bonner, for him. I think Diaw will play an important role.
Utah must be highly interested in seeing how the 3-ptrs go down in this first game. With many Spurs rusty or banged up, and the playoffs testing untried players (and Matt Bonner), if San Antonio can't get these to go down, it could be an interesting series. If they do go down, their chances are much more unlikely.
Matt Bonner was getting schooled by Golden State JV team last night.
I expect his ass to be a benchwarmer for the entire playoffs
Ever since Dallas locked up number 7 seed, I been saying this will be the easiest first round match up since Memphis 2004.
slow down. we still have Matt Bonner
I agree with Purch. The Spurs will absolutely destroy the Jazz in an up tempo game because the Spurs run the break as well as any team and their passing is crisp and clean.
The Jazz will pack the paint and hope for offensive boards to be in their favor. Our outside shooting is going to be on display. I don't see Leonard choking in the playoffs, but anything is possible I guess. Dude is just too focused and doesn't seem to have game memory where he dwells on the last play. He's shooting well above where he looks like he should be shooting based on his form, but I'll take it. Hopefully it doesn't average out in the playoffs. Danny Green will be fine as long as he doesn't start to defer. He doesn't seem to be that type. We all know what Bonner will do, so we have that advantage, as he can only pleasantly surprise us, nothing else.
I just don't think the Jazz have the cohesiveness at this point to hold it together during a Spurs run. We'll see though.
I could see a sweep, but it's not going to be a cake walk.
Great breakdown.
Personally, there are two things that worry me about the Jazz: their frontline, and Devin Harris.
The former, because of what happened last season against Memphis. But the Jazz's frontline doesn't nearly have the same same size or skill that Memphis had. Jefferson is slightly undersized. Millsap is definitely undersized. And it would also be hard to believe that they could pull the same ridiculous shots out of their collective arses that the Grizzlies did *knock on wood*.
The latter, because Harris used to torch us in his days in Dallas. But Dallas had a lot more weapons then than the Jazz do now. It was hard to get a handle on Harris because you also had to account for Dirk, and Terry, and Howard, etc. With the Jazz, Harris is the head of the snake....shut him down, and the rest of the team is going to suffer for it. That being said, he's been shooting great over the tail of the season, so Spurs need to make it a point to get out on him and run him off that three-point line.
All things considered, though....when you look at the other teams in the playoff bracket, this is the easiest matchup the Spurs could've hoped for. Denver is playing hot right now, and has the talent to give the Spurs serious trouble. The Clips also have a lot of size inside, as well as Chris Paul. Memphis, Dallas or the Lakers? Need I say more?
The only way that things might have turned out better is if Phoenix had snuck into that 8-spot, but even they could present problems with all of their three-point shooters (which the Spurs struggle to cover when they get in scramble mode). Oh, and then there's that Steve Nash guy. Really, though, while the Suns may have been a less physical opponent, it also wouldn't condition the Spurs for upcoming rounds. If the Spurs are going to have to go through Memphis, or LA, or OKC, then the Jazz are a good warm-up to deal with that size on the interior.
Finally, one of the best silver linings is how the bracket played out. The only team on our side that I really worry about is Memphis. Meanwhile, LA, OKC, and Dallas are all going to have to take each other out. If the Spurs are able to make it to the WCF, they will only have to face one of those three teams, and that is a major advantage.
Spurs will sweep first two series.
Spurs will not sweep and as long as they stay healthy and win in 5-6 I am fine with that. Jazz are a well coached and under-rated team.
Didn't you give the Spurs a 1% chance at winning the le this year or something? Even after the trade didn't you bump it up to like 5%? I don't really remember but what do you think the chances are now that the Spurs win the 'ship?Typically, Spurs fans get on me for being too pessimistic about San Antonio in the playoffs.
I expect a lot of pick&rolls from us. We're the best pick&roll team in the NBA and they're terrible defending it (25th among all NBA teams). They're also horrible defending in isolation plays and our offense is top 5.
Honestly, I am not worried about the Jazz at all. We're gonna win this in 5 at most. Our offense is just way too good for their defense.
Interesting that the spaced out schedule didn't make the top 10. With the Spurs very rested going into the each of the first three games of the series, we could easily win all three by 20+. I know it benefits Utah too, but we all know how much better our team is with fresh legs.
Last edited by justinandimcool; 04-27-2012 at 10:32 AM.
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