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Well you definitely won that imaginary argument.
Pennsylvania -- not really compe ive. Republicans will win western part of the state for first time in decades, but suburban Philly is getting bluer. Obama by eight or so.
Ohio -- Obama has a slight lead. Upper Midwest starting to trend away from Dems, but GOP anti-union campaign fell flat in Ohio where it succeeded in Wisconsin and Indiana. This will come down to ground game.
New Hampshire -- I don't think it's as compe ive as some do. GOP brand still ruined by Bush years there. Romney with name recognition does as well as he can there, but NH is still lean Dem.
Virginia -- Demographically trending away from GOP due to government employees in northern counties. Obama is throwing a huge arsenal to hold Virginia. Deep-red southern Virginia is inflamed against Obama and will turn out. A true toss-up.
North Carolina -- Black turnout, Austinization of Asheville delivered NC narrowly in 2008. This state is more like Missouri than Virginia though. Romney is up at least five. Likely GOP.
Michigan -- Dems weaker than usual because of defection of white blue-collar Catholics and depopulation of Detroit. Romney also has roots here. Not sure the trend is strong enough to turn it red this cycle. It's more of a swing state than Pennsylvania is but not much.
Indiana -- not really a swing state; Romney will win easily.
Wisconsin -- polls even when Walker won his recall showed Obama in the lead. Walker won recall on the strength of middle-of-the-road voters not thinking the recall was justified rather than a red shift in the electorate. Ryan makes it a little closer even but I think this is about the same as Michigan.
Missouri -- there was a blip when Jeebo Akin opened his mouth, but since then MO has gone back to Romney in double digits.
Iowa -- another true toss-up. Obama has both barrels aimed at it.
Florida -- Obama got a lot of Cuban voters in 2008 he won't get this time. He's also weaker among Jews and seniors. It doesn't necessarily turn it red, but I have Romney up slightly here. Sort of the flip side of Ohio. Again, groud game makes the difference.
Colorado -- trending away from GOP due to increasing Hispanic population and Anglo hostility towards them, and Californization of Denver. Hickenlooper is popular and effective. However, 2008 result more because of GOP disarray that cycle than demographic trends. As with all other states except Florida and its Cubans, Hispanic turnout is about half the Anglo rate. I have Romney up by four or five. If someone in the state GOP, especially the Colo Spgs crowd, does or says something stupid it could stay blue.
New Mexico -- more or less a blue state now due to western Hispanic Dem solidarity and leftie flavor of northern New Mexico overwhelming southeastern ranchers. Saw a Romney bounce after GOP convention due to Martinez speech but it won't last.
Arizona -- not really a swing state. Hispanics are a solid Dem block but the whites basically vote like it's Mississippi.
Nevada -- this is another true toss-up where the Hispanics and California transplants basically balance out the western conservatives. Interestingly, the way the math works Nevada hasn't been seen as a critical toss-up worth a lot of resources but that could change.
I expect some idiots to come in here and claim that South Carolina or Georgia or Texas on one side, or Oregon or New Jersey or Minnesota on the other side are up from grabs. To pre-empt, let me explain: shut up, you ing moron. No, they aren't.
Based upon this, if you consider OH and FL toss-ups, then Obama is up 251-215 and Romney more or less needs to run the table. He has a shot, but clearly Obama has the high ground. If Ohio goes Blue, then Obama is at 269 and Romney has to win every other state for an Electoral College tie. Then it goes to the Republican House of Representatives and Romney wins.
Well, he "wins," because if there's an Electoral College tie there will be massive ing civil unrest and the United States probably splits apart in 2013.
Seriously
I heard some guy on the radio yesterday saying that Texas was in play and could go for Obama and I was like "what the ?...how did this dumbass get on the radio?"
According to FOX Swing states = Battleground states?
In 15-20 years, Texas will be blue.
But not in 2012.
No, if there's an Electoral College tie, it goes to the House, and while Obama and Romney continue to bicker, the March 3rd deadline approaches.... then, faced with the prospect of J
I think that's been Luap Nor's plan all along mwahahahahahahaNo, if there's an Electoral College tie, it goes to the House, and while Obama and Romney continue to bicker, the March 3rd deadline approaches.... then, faced with the prospect of J
Hispanic influx in Texas and rest of southwest plus white flight out of certain northern swing states to already red states means just about everyone here will get to see the day when a republican POTUS and congress is impossible, at least anywhere near what the party is today.
Permanently left SCOTUS rules social issues while both parties shift left on economics. Texas elects Hispanic democrat governor sometime in 2020s. After that, see New Mexico.
2030s: People start saying, "Have you ever heard of Pat Buchanan?"
The longer that hispanic families are here, they become more republican each generation. This is because they are largely catholic and don't believe in abortion or gay marriage. In 15 or 20 years, those same hispanics won't need anything from Obama in the form of citizenship and will vote republican.
If Willard doesn't win Ohio, he's ed. Case closed. Since 1960, only one person has lost Ohio and still won the presidency. It was JFK but yeah history ain't happening this year.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...rant-Hispanics
GALLUP: SECOND-GENERATION HISPANICS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN IMMIGRANTS
by TONY LEE 26 Jun 2012 71 POST A COMMENT
Based on a recent Gallup poll that found President Barack Obama with a 66 percent to 25 percent lead over Mitt Romney among Hispanics, liberals prematurely celebrated not only winning the Hispanic vote this election year by wide margins but winning the Hispanic vote for generations to lock in a so-called permanent liberal majority.
Not so fast.
A closer look at the numbers suggest that second-generation Hispanics may not be as liberal as immigrant Hispanics, and this underscores how important full assimilation of Hispanics into the American culture will be.
According to the poll’s findings, Hispanic voters who are immigrants “say by almost 5-to-1 that the government should do more to solve our country's problems,” but “among registered Hispanic voters who are the U.S.-born children of immigrants, that ratio narrows to nearly 2-1.”
The poll found that 72% of Hispanics support Obama. However, among Hispanics whose parents were born in the USA, only 58% support Obama.
When it comes to Mitt Romney, 18% of Hispanic immigrants and 22% of first-generation Hispanics support Obama's Republican challenger. However, among Hispanics whose parents were born in America, Romney support nearly doubles at 35%.
Furthermore, 16% of immigrant Hispanics ranked immigration as the top issue of this election cycle. For Hispanics whose parents were born in America, only 7% ranked immigration as their top priority.
Right now, immigrant and first-generation Hispanics outnumber those whose parents were born in America. But in the future, when more Hispanics are born to American-born parents while immigrant Hispanics move up the economic ladder, Democrats may not be able to take the Hispanic vote for granted, as Romney has accused Obama of doing.
Laugh all you want Manny. Most the Hispanics I know in Oregon are conservative and vote republican. I have never seen many of the legal Hispanics want to vote democrat.
Last edited by Wild Cobra; 09-12-2012 at 02:28 AM.
Yeah, and what that article doesn't cover is that it goes further than 2nd generation. The third generation, fourth, etc are each more conservative than the last. Manny is just an ape looking chode who doesn't know jack about and shouldn't be taken seriously.
the irony..lol
Hispanics are just like any other group. If you tell them what they want to hear, they'll follow. It's not really a conservative/liberal ideological divide at this point in time. There's more pressing concerns for some of them, like their close families not getting deported or having access to jobs/education.
One sometimes wonders why Obama commands so much of the Latino vote . . .
And their not being ideological means that when 25-30% of one party vocally expresses its hatred for them, it makes the decision to vote for the other party pretty easy.
Pro-Romney SuperPAC: 'Enormous Opportunity' In Western Swing States
Some well-funded pro-Mitt Romney superPACs are pulling their TV ad dollars in Pennsylvania and Michigan and are doubling down on efforts in what they consider to be more crucial swing states — such as Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Colorado.
Those are states where President Obama has also been spending considerable time campaigning lately, but where he's facing a barrage of attack ads from his Republican rival and the conservative superPACs, such as American Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolit...s?sc=17&f=1001
http://natcath.org/NCR_Online/archiv...05/093005n.htmA demographic overview
Our findings (Table 4) show that 41 percent of Catholics are Democrats, with Republicans at 37 percent and Independents at 22 percent. This is close to the findings from Pew Research and other studies in which Democrats claimed between 40 percent and 42 percent of the total Catholic population, Republicans between 36 percent and 38 percent, with Independents (including Greens) getting most of the others.
GALLUP: SECOND-GENERATION HISPANICS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN IMMIGRANTS
your numbers don't mean but i won't even try to explain to you why. you obviously don't see it.
Huh? If anything, the GOP blatantly panders even more to Hispanics than the Democrats do, tbh.....
I find it moronic that either party does. The legal Hispanics don't want such insults. Only the illegals like the messages being put out.
I'm not speaking of the politicians necessarily. I'm saying that 25-30% of Republican voters are overtly hostile towards Hispanics. Not illegal immigrants, Hispanics in general. Don't view them as legitimate Americans. Hate the way they look, the way they talk, their aesthetic sense, their culture, food, music, religion, everything. Hate that they ever speak Spanish. Really hate seeing signs in Spanish, even if it's below the English in little type. Hate it if they go into a grocery store and see Oaxacan cheese or trepas for sale. Hate that Tejano/Norteno/Conjunto radio stations exist. Hate that Univision broadcasts over the air.
I've seen it in Texas, but the hatred in Texas is nothing compared to what I've seen in California and Arizona, or across the South.
It's hard to find political common cause with people who hate you.
If you have that statistic, what is it for democrats?
Besides, I don't believe that number. Maybe up to 15%, but 25% is a real stretch when talking about "legal" Hispanics in my opinion.
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