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  1. #1
    Believe. Malik Hairston's Avatar
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    For those that are unaware of the stat, it's currently the most accurate measure of a player's impact on his team IMO..unlike other +/- stats that are altered by potential aberrations, RAPM factors body of work(which is flawed at times, but a logical solution most of the time)..

    Conventional adjusted plus-minus is shown to do a poor job of predicting the outcome of future games, particularly when fit on less than one season of data. Adding regularization greatly improves accuracy, and some player ratings change dramatically. The enhancement with the RAPM is a Bayesian technique in which the data is combined with a priori beliefs regarding reasonable ranges for the parameters in order to produce more accurate models. That is what ridge regression (a.k.a. regularization) does.
    The data from 2001 until present has been released..

    Tim Duncan's rankings..
    2001: #2
    2002: #2
    2003: #1
    2004: #3
    2005: #1
    2006: #3
    2007: #1
    2008: #3
    2009: #5
    2010: #5
    2011: #6
    2012: #4
    2013: #5

    His impact has been ridiculous, especially considering he's been past his prime since 2008 or 2009..only KG has matched his longevity, although he did it at an inferior rate..

  2. #2
    Veteran Sean Cagney's Avatar
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    For those that are unaware of the stat, it's currently the most accurate measure of a player's impact on his team IMO..unlike other +/- stats that are altered by potential aberrations, RAPM factors body of work(which is flawed at times, but a logical solution most of the time)..



    The data from 2001 until present has been released..

    Tim Duncan's rankings..
    2001: #2
    2002: #2
    2003: #1
    2004: #3
    2005: #1
    2006: #3
    2007: #1
    2008: #3
    2009: #5
    2010: #5
    2011: #6
    2012: #4
    2013: #5

    His impact has been ridiculous, especially considering he's been past his prime since 2008 or 2009..only KG has matched his longevity, although he did it at an inferior rate..
    ENJOY HIM as you will, you won't see one of him again in your lifetime. I like the 2013 #5 up there BTW, not what you meant by posting it but man I liked seeing 2013 and #5.

  3. #3
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    Interesting. Do you have rank data for Manu and Tony?

  4. #4
    Pump Bacon Cane's Avatar
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    Here's the link to the data:

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/

    If I read correctly, it's no longer just RAPM and here's the stathead behind it all talking about it here :

    http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopi...7d3078b6ec2839

    The stat is now xRAPM and replaces RAPM since it adds boxscore stats or some

    Stathead Engelman wanted the numbers to reflect the data you find in both +/- and PER
    Last edited by Cane; 11-17-2012 at 11:26 AM.

  5. #5
    Believe. SanDiegoSpursFan's Avatar
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    Ginobili is really high on those lists.

  6. #6
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    ENJOY HIM as you will, you won't see one of him again in your lifetime. I like the 2013 #5 up there BTW, not what you meant by posting it but man I liked seeing 2013 and #5.
    While I often make similar statements, in our lifetimes (some of us) we've seen Jabbar, Wilt, Hakeem, Magic, Bird, Michael, Shaq, Kobe, Lebron, Russell (some of us), DRob, Tim and many more. To say you won't see another like Tim in your lifetime is saying a bit much. But, suffice it to say you probably won't see another like him this decade.

  7. #7
    Pop, the Mastermind superjames1992's Avatar
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    Ginobili is really high on those lists.
    Manu is really good. He does a lot of stuff that doesn't regularly show up on stat sheets and his defense is good, too. He makes everyone around him better.

    Manu was ranked above Tony in each and every season aside from his rookie season. That's why the man EARNED $14 million per year, you haters.

  8. #8
    Out with the old... Obstructed_View's Avatar
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    Duncan's broken down, tbh. Dwight Howard has more impact. Look at his superman costume and his Sportscenter commercials, ffs.

  9. #9
    5 Bill_Brasky's Avatar
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    Words cannot express how much I appreciate Tim Duncan.

  10. #10
    Veteran Sean Cagney's Avatar
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    While I often make similar statements, in our lifetimes (some of us) we've seen Jabbar, Wilt, Hakeem, Magic, Bird, Michael, Shaq, Kobe, Lebron, Russell (some of us), DRob, Tim and many more. To say you won't see another like Tim in your lifetime is saying a bit much. But, suffice it to say you probably won't see another like him this decade.
    Sorry, I meant on our TEAM! I meant a talent like that we get at #1 and he turns out to get you 4 les.

  11. #11
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    Eight months ago, Spurs fans were telling me Tim Duncan isn't worth $8M per season

  12. #12
    Believe. Em-City's Avatar
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    Eight months ago, Spurs fans were telling me Tim Duncan isn't worth $8M per season
    $value aside, were you really expecting him to come out looking this good?

    TBH i think he's playing even better this season than he did last year, and not many could have predicted that.

  13. #13
    Kiwi, Advanced Stat Fan
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    With the new calculation, Matt Bonner has tumbled from a fringe top 10 player at around +4 to a +2(And around 60th), whilst Splitter and Blair have both been boosted, Splitter going from ~neutral to +1.5, Blair from -2 to +0.2.

    Danny Green still excellent. From scanning quickly, He's the 6th best SG for the 2012 season, and around there again this year. Getting that for 4.5 million a year is also ridiculous.

  14. #14
    Spur-taaaa TDMVPDPOY's Avatar
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    is there stats that show the impact of missed shots that leads to baskets on the other end, cause i think parker and gino would top those lists with their hero ball and stupid circus passes in moments of the game where its not needed for sportscenter

  15. #15
    Veteran
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    Eight months ago, Spurs fans were telling me Tim Duncan isn't worth $8M per season
    Didn't some people even want him to sign for a lot less than that?

  16. #16
    ......................... mystargtr34's Avatar
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    Good find ..really love me some advanced stats tbh.

    Basically the main findings i took away..

    1. Tim is amazing.. as i expected
    2. KG, Shaq and Timmy were a level above everyone else between 2000-2005.. also as i expected.
    3. Defense is still underated.. as shown by Ben Wallace
    4. Kirilenko was better than i thought.. even though i always thought he was underated as an overall impact player
    5. Lol Kobe

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