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Yes, the Spurs currently still have a 1 game lead over OKC, and could secure HCA by winning their last 5 games. But there are two things that worry me.
1) Both teams have 5 games left, but the Spurs schedule is much tougher.
Spurs: @Denver, Sacramento, @ L.A. Lakers, @Golden State (B2B), Minnesota.
Thunder: @Utah, @Golden State, @Portland, Sacramento, Milwaukee.
For the Spurs, only one of those games (Sacramento) is really a gimme. Denver has become the hardest place in the league to win a game (they've only lost 3 at home all season). Despite their record, the Lakers always put up a good fight and are still scrapping for the playoffs. Golden State is the 2nd of a B2B and has played us well all season, and Minnesota has a tendency to make things tough as well.
For the Thunder, Utah and maybe Golden State are the only two teams that will put up a decent fight. Unless they go cold, they could easily win out.
2) The Spurs have to deal with the aforementioned schedule while still trying to get healthy. We probably won't see Manu for the rest of the season. Tony is a question mark at this point. And now the nagging injury list includes Kawhi, Diaw, Neal, and Jackson (Splitter also doesn't seem to be his normal self either, but I haven't heard of any injuries). This would be challenging enough even with a full squad, but as undergunned as we are right now, I give OKC the advantage.
That being said, dropping to the 2nd seed wouldn't be the end of the world. Of course I'd prefer the Spurs have HCA over the Thunder, but the 2-spot arguably gives them the easier path in the playoffs, so at this point, I'm fine to just let the cards drop and play 'em how they fall.
