Hey Manny

[Hook Dem]

What do you think about the last sentence in this? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
859 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

UPDATE

UPPER JET AND TAIL END OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRANS PECOS TO DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS MOVE INTO VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND HAVE LEFT 5 AND 10 POPS THERE, WHILE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE GHOST 5 AND 10 POPS
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, WIND, AND RELATED
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS. LOOKING AHEAD, 18Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT APPROACHES THE TEXAS
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Hook Dem]

What do you think about the last sentence in this? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
859 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

UPDATE

UPPER JET AND TAIL END OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRANS PECOS TO DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS MOVE INTO VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND HAVE LEFT 5 AND 10 POPS THERE, WHILE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE GHOST 5 AND 10 POPS
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, WIND, AND RELATED
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS. LOOKING AHEAD, 18Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT APPROACHES THE TEXAS
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Vashner]

Boo.. the model that predicted Katrina was the UK model btw.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats quite funny! I was just talking to Mandy that I had noticed that in several consistent runs.

It makes sense to me, and the GFS model has been calling for it quite consistently over the past few runs. There is a ridge over us now, but that is going to slide to the east as a front drives into the centeral US next week. The system would then slide up the western edge of that ridge right into Texas. I'll try to post some of the pictures from the GFS model runs to show you what its showing.

[Ginofan]

*cue the twighlight zone theme*

[Vashner]

I am going bay fishing Monday in Port A so.. better not storm...

[MannyIsGod]

Boo.. the model that predicted Katrina was the UK model btw.

A lot of them predicted Katrina, not just the UKMET. Models aren't great at predicting the development of systems for several reasons, but the GFS has shown an 'app ude' of doing it. The development of many storms - most recently Ophelia - has been prognosticated by the GFS. But it has also forcast storms that never develop.

[MannyIsGod]

I am going bay fishing Monday in Port A so.. better not storm...

You should be fine on Monday.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, just an FYI for people if anyone cares...

I'm seriously considering double majoring with one of my degree plans being Meteorology while also doing PolSci, or switchign majors all together.

[MannyIsGod]

GFS surface plot for next Thursday. That big green blob is your storm.



Thats the mid level plot for the same day. That light area off the coast is the storm, with the purple area over Georgia/South Carolina is the high pressure moving the storm in this direction.

Something to keep an eye on, without a doubt.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats the 8 day surface plot for the Medium Range Forcast Model. That big blob is the possible storm.

[TheWriter]

Thats the 8 day surface plot for the Medium Range Forcast Model. That big blob is the possible storm.

Freakin' New Orleans better watch out.

[MannyIsGod]

It is very far out in time, either way. And models aren't Miss Cleo by a long shot. I think there is some credence to this because a large number of the models are showing it, but with it being so far in the future as far as weather goes there really is no telling.

It is something to keep an eye out for though.

[MannyIsGod]

Freakin' New Orleans better watch out.

No, the storm would move into South Texas from east to west.

[travis2]

BTW, just an FYI for people if anyone cares...

I'm seriously considering double majoring with one of my degree plans being Meteorology while also doing PolSci, or switchign majors all together.

How's your math background/ap ude?

[MannyIsGod]

How's your math background/ap ude?

The only college level courses I've ever taken are College Algebra and Statistics. I didn't have trouble with either, and I don't think I'd have much of a problem with higher level math courses.

In other words, I don't have the background but I feel my apitude at the least adequeate.

[travis2]

Just checking. Be ready to hit the books hard. Atmospheric physics is no joke.

[SpursWoman]

I think that would be an awesome choice for you ... you seem to really enjoy & have a knack for it.

[MannyIsGod]

Just checking. Be ready to hit the books hard. Atmospheric physics is no joke.

You're not kidding.

It is just a consideration, though. I've been putting a lot of thought into it, but we'll see.

[MannyIsGod]

The GFS is showing the storm still, but it now has it going into Mexico.

The place it actually makes landfall is pretty inaccurate at the moment, but add another 2 model runs to the series that are predicting this storm to form.

[travis2]

I think it would be a "cool" major to pick up "hot" chicks with, "weather" or not you actually like the stuff. lol


Seriously, good luck. Meteorology seems like it would be a really interesting major.

[CosmicCowboy]

I think it would be a "cool" major to pick up "hot" chicks with, "weather" or not you actually like the stuff. lol

yeah...I can just see all those hot chicks on the weather channel running back to Dr. Mannys office so he can tell them what to say before they go on the air...

[travis2]

yeah...I can just see all those hot chicks on the weather channel running back to Dr. Mannys office so he can tell them what to say before they go on the air...

Q: Why were all hurricanes originally named after women?

A: Well, they do blow hard...

[MannyIsGod]

[MannyIsGod]

The models are now calling for the high pressure ridge to sit right over Texas through the week. So unless the trough digs in stronger than anticpated, we will not get hit by the storm. The GFS still shows it developing but just heading straight into Mexico.

But there are plenty of chances of storms right now, so I don't think South Texas is out of the woods by any means.