[A Closer Look] Spurs' Young Core Performance vs Others

[Dejounte]

Keldon Johnson...

versus players his age:



-Arguably the second best player among players the same age. Maybe THE best?

versus players averaging roughly the same amount of minutes (and within 2 years of his age):



-Arguably the second best player among players averaging the same amount of minutes (and within two years of his age)

versus players drafted in the lottery (and within 2 years of his age):



-Arguably outperforming 8+ players selected in the lottery (and within two years of his age), most notably Rui Hachimura who most people had a hard on for.

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Lonnie Walker...


versus players his age:



-Lonnie's not shining currently among players his age, but arguably has the most potential because of his physical attributes.

versus players averaging roughly the same amount of minutes (and within 2 years of his age):



-Again, not great, but one of the best shooters among this group.

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Dejounte Murray...

versus players his age:



-Arguably the second best point guard among players his age.

versus players averaging roughly the same amount of minutes (and within 2 years of his age):



-Again, the second best player among guys who averaged the same amount of minutes.

versus players drafted in the lottery (and within 2 years of his age):



-Dejounte Murray is outperforming at least 5+ players drafted in the lottery (and within 2 years of his age)

[The Truth #6]

Solid work, DJ.

[Mr. Body]

I would take Murray above D'Lo. Russell was dynamite in Brooklyn, but he's too mercurial. I don't know what to expect from him and now that he's been exiled in Minnesota, the worst franchise in NBA history, I doubt we'll hear much from him again.

[BacktoBasics]

This is exactly why we shouldn’t be going around making trades for the sake of making trades and tacking on young prospects to our expiring vets to try and leverage a 1st round pick from another team.

Everyone here has tried to give Lonnie away in a trade. He’s faired pretty well against lottery picks. There’s little reason to believe that a top 15 pick is automatically gonna equate to something better than what we have and are currently developing.

I’m almost certain Pop has benched Luka because he doesn’t want another team to start using him as leverage to complete a trade for one of those expiring players.

[Dejounte]

I would take Murray above D'Lo. Russell was dynamite in Brooklyn, but he's too mercurial. I don't know what to expect from him and now that he's been exiled in Minnesota, the worst franchise in NBA history, I doubt we'll hear much from him again.

Look at this tasteless tweet by D'Lo, celebrating LaMelo's injury today:

If you could assign a numeric value to a player's character, he would score really low.

[RD2191]

OP is a got.

[timvp]

Good stuff, Deej

I'd probably take Murray out of those point guards and Keldon out of anyone you compared him to. Porter is close but his injury history and his family's injury history is impossible to ignore, tbh. Herro hasn't had the year-over-year jump that I would have expected -- looks the same or worse. Murray vs. Russell I guess is kinda close but Russell is such a bad defender that I don't think it's even that close if you're trying to build a winner.

Walker is still young and obviously still has potential but it's a stretch to say he has more potential than SGA. For Walker to get as good as SGA is now, that'd be miraculous. Not sure you can objectively say he has more potential than Sexton either, if we're being honest. But, yeah, his speed and athleticism keeps the door open on Walker possibly blossoming into a clear-cut starting caliber player.



Since it fits the thread and I was looking at it early today, the early returns on Vassell are also promising. In a redraft scenario, the only players clearly ahead of Vassell are LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards, IMO. I was high on Ball but he's even better than I thought. Edwards is wild but the kid can score. I said he was a lock to average at least 20 points at some point in his career. Up that to about 25 now.

Haliburton has hit the rookie wall and his defense remains questionable so he has probably fallen out of that top tier. Outside of highlights, Wiseman has been iffy. Warriors are a lot better when he sits and his character issues are still a question mark, to put it kindly. Quickley looks like he might be the real deal ... but his shooting percentages are fading. Patrick Williams looks pretty good but probably on the same level as Vassell right now.

Players drafted ahead of Vassell who probably wouldn't be drafted ahead of him in a redraft: Okoro (looks small and pretty bad, tbh), Okongwu (buried on the Hawks but not producing much), Hayes (reaaally rough start before suffering a possibly career-altering injury), Toppin (doesn't appear to have that same scoring spark he had in college), Avdija (looks okay at times but meh overall), Jalen Smith (hasn't played much in the NBA and didn't stand out in G League).

Early return tiers:

Ball
Edwards

Haliburton
Wiseman?

Williams
Vassell
Quickley
Bey
Bane
Maxey
Maybe someone else I'm forgetting

[Dejounte]

timvp

Keldon over even Zion? I mean, I guess I could see it. Zion looks like he's on that Giannis trajectory of becoming a star with hardly any three point skill. Watching the Bucks the other night made me lose any confidence that the Bucks will get far again in the playoffs this year. Any team can just follow what the Spurs did last night: give him space and dare him to shoot it. Reminds me of the old LeBron days when he could not win for a long time because he couldn't shoot. Keldon looks like a better shooter from 3 than both Zion and Giannis and he isn't even that good. Keldon's ceiling will be determined by his ability to shoot. KJ's athleticism not being elite level might be a blessing a disguise because it will force him to develop his shooting instead of relying exclusively on his athleticism.

My biggest takeaway from doing this is that if you look at each of these three players (Murray, Lonnie, Keldon) in retrospect and compare their numbers from their first, second, or even third year, they would be at the bottom of the list compared to the guys listed in their respective groups. A fair evaluation of a player being developed by the Spurs can only be done after the following:

Year 1 - spotty minutes with the main team, learning the system - Think Lonnie last year. Dejounte's second year in the NBA.
Year 2 - regular rotation minutes - Think Lonnie this year. Dejounte's fourth year in the NBA (The season after his ACL tear, which is last year)
Year 3 - Bigger role, even more minutes - Think Lonnie next year. This year is essentially Dejounte's third year.

So, a three year plan and then looking where we're at by the third year.

With Vassell, we are in year 1 obviously and so is Luka.

If Luka is still on the team two years from now, I think that would be a good time to see where he's at among players his age. He might blow everyone away.

[timvp]

Keldon over even Zion?

Oops, no, I meant in the first two lists. Zion and Tatum are both better prospects than Keldon.

[Dejounte]

Guys, somehow I missed some players who I believe Keldon should be compared to. Here they are:



OG supposedly has all the potential in the world according to Raptor fans, and Keldon is arguably better at a younger age.

[TD 21]

It's foolish to compare players based strictly on counting stats, since they're highly dependant on context (minutes/usage/mentality/teammates) . . .

- Johnson: Porter Jr, Williamson, Tatum, Ingram, Hunter, Anunoby are clearly better. Herro, Bey, Washington, debatably are. He could end up better than Hunter and Anunoby, though.

- Walker: Sexton, Gilgeous-Alexander, Trent Jr., Bane, DiVincenzo, are clearly better. Monk, Huerter, Milton, Dort, debatably are. He could end up better than all but Sexton and Gilgeous-Alexander, though.

- Murray: Russell, Smart, Young, Fox, J. Murray, are clearly better. Brunson, Ball, Graham, debatably are. He could end up better than all but Young, Fox and J. Murray, though.

Drastically outperforming draft slots is simultaneously nice (though it should be noted Murray and to a lesser extent Johnson, were projected to go significantly higher) and meaningless if in the end you have a core that lacks a centerpiece and isn't near good enough to contend, yet is collectively relatively pricey and too good to get the best odds at drafting said centerpiece.

[Dejounte]

It's foolish to compare players based strictly on counting stats, since they're highly dependant on context (minutes/usage/mentality/teammates) . . .

- Johnson: Porter Jr, Williamson, Tatum, Ingram, Hunter, Anunoby are clearly better. Herro, Bey, Washington, debatably are. He could end up better than Hunter and Anunoby, though.

- Walker: Sexton, Gilgeous-Alexander, Trent Jr., Bane, DiVincenzo, are clearly better. Monk, Huerter, Milton, Dort, debatably are. He could end up better than all but Sexton and Gilgeous-Alexander, though.

- Murray: Russell, Smart, Young, Fox, J. Murray, are clearly better. Brunson, Ball, Graham, debatably are. He could end up better than all but Young, Fox and J. Murray, though.

Drastically outperforming draft slots is simultaneously nice (though it should be noted Murray and to a lesser extent Johnson, were projected to go significantly higher) and meaningless if in the end you have a core that lacks a centerpiece and isn't near good enough to contend, yet is collectively relatively pricey and too good to get the best odds at drafting said centerpiece.

Well, I was aiming for a simplified way of doing this. As far as minutes goes, I thought I addressed that by the second table for each player. As far as usage goes, I included field goal attempts to help with that. I could definitely add USG% in here, that's not a difficult task. I'll do that tomorrow. Mentality & teammates, I mean you have to be more specific with this one because I'm not sure how we'd quantify that.

For Johnson & Murray, we're on the same page on these if you read what I said above. For both, I said they're arguably better, leaving room for objection. Edit: I'm actually not certain now if you're disagreeing with anything I said

When you say the core lacks a centerpiece, how can you say for certain none of these three will become that given that their production is arguably better than most of their counterparts (of whom are similar age and have an upward trajectory)? It's not a closed book on these guys.

[TD 21]

Well, I was aiming for a simplified way of doing this. As far as minutes goes, I thought I addressed that by the second table for each player. As far as usage goes, I included field goal attempts to help with that. I could definitely add USG% in here, that's not a difficult task. I'll do that tomorrow. Mentality & teammates, I mean you have to be more specific with this one because I'm not sure how we'd quantify that.

For Johnson & Murray, we're on the same page on these if you read what I said above. For both, I said they're arguably better, leaving room for objection. Edit: I'm actually not certain now if you're disagreeing with anything I said

When you say the core lacks a centerpiece, how can you say for certain none of these three will become that given that their production is arguably better than most of their counterparts (of whom are similar age and have an upward trajectory)? It's not a closed book on these guys.

The simplest way is to view a myriad of catch all metrics.

Mentality: Some are driven by counting stats, thinking it's the ultimate currency that leads to attention, accolades and getting paid. Others are not worried about things like that and are consumed with doing whatever is required to win.

Teammates: Roster construction. Do you have a lot of shot creation, shooting, depth at your position(s), high IQ, etc. and are you stuck with too many of the first part of column A?

I'm saying, right now they don't have an obvious centerpiece, odds are they won't have one in house (as we've discussed, Johnson is probably the only hope) and most of the listed players aren't that.

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

Great work.

Dejounte you stay dropping interesting information on here

keep it coming

[exstatic]

Well, I was aiming for a simplified way of doing this. As far as minutes goes, I thought I addressed that by the second table for each player. As far as usage goes, I included field goal attempts to help with that. I could definitely add USG% in here, that's not a difficult task. I'll do that tomorrow. Mentality & teammates, I mean you have to be more specific with this one because I'm not sure how we'd quantify that.

For Johnson & Murray, we're on the same page on these if you read what I said above. For both, I said they're arguably better, leaving room for objection. Edit: I'm actually not certain now if you're disagreeing with anything I said

When you say the core lacks a centerpiece, how can you say for certain none of these three will become that given that their production is arguably better than most of their counterparts (of whom are similar age and have an upward trajectory)? It's not a closed book on these guys.

Sniper.