Wilma: Deja Vu

[MannyIsGod]

I'd been pretty much out of the loop regarding Wilma other than a daily check in until I looked at the storm tonight. Well, we've seen this happen before this year with every storm that reached catagory 4 status and to a much greater degree with Katrina and Rita.

Wilma is now officialy a catagory 2 storm but is more than likely at least a catagory 3 storm. She's dropping pressure very fast - 16mb in the past few hours - and it appears the NHC is now officialy signing off on a scenario that brings her to catagory 5 status.

Deja ing vu!

One thing thats really interesting is that even though the surface temps are pretty high, the water underneath is actually warmer, so upwelling which would normally weaken the storm is actually going to serve to make her stronger.

In any event, if the re-cycling does begin overnight, it likely would be complete by noon Wed, and would then allow for another 24 hours in which the storm could
resume a rapid intensification. In addition,m by late Wed and on through Friday, the storm will be passing over
the warmest heat content waters in the entire Atlantic Basin. What I found this evening, using the Navy's
altimetry derived SST's -- is that the water temps on the surface of the ocean are actually a couple of degrees
cooler than just below surface layer!. The mid mid fall temp fall off in water temps begins at the surface of
course, but because it has only just begun, temps are 1-2deg warmer about 10-50 meters below the surface!
This is rather ironic, in that it assures the slow moving storm will at first be upwelling WARMER Water!
Normally, upwelling results in colder, sub-surface water being drawn upwards. Combined with the overall
very favorable outflow, low wind shear environment -- CAT 4 now seems like a very distinct probability.

Anyhow, it looks as though Florida gets to deal with this one.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Cue the ST.com weather club circle jerk

[spurs=bling]

16 mbs. damn she is getting stronger by the hour.

[MannyIsGod]

Holy , she's now as strong as Rita!!!

[ZStomp]

Should I be scared?

[MannyIsGod]

000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB



She has a pressure of 901mb!!!! She dropped 53mb in 4 hours and she's likely to become the strongest storm EVER in the Atlantic basin sometime tonight.

She has surface winds of about 160mph now as well.

Once again, no one saw this coming.

[MannyIsGod]

Should I be scared?

Only if you plan on going to Florida.

[spurs=bling]

Holy , she's now as strong as Rita!!!

this is not good.

[spurs=bling]

000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB



She has a pressure of 901mb!!!! She dropped 53mb in 4 hours and she's likely to become the strongest storm EVER in the atlantic basin sometime tonight.

Once again, no one saw this coming.

901 oh . is the only thing i can say

[Cant_Be_Faded]

They're controlling the weather and the end of the world is on the horizon.

[spurs=bling]

So Manny will this be this seasons third Cat 5?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Just wait until we get Hurricane Alpha, Hurricane Beta, Hurricane Gamma, and Hurricane Delta

[Vashner]

CNN just said it's cat 4? .... wow..

[spurs=bling]

CNN just said it's cat 4? .... wow..

yes it is. Manny had already posted the max winds speeds.

[Trainwreck2100]

Just wait until we get Hurricane Alpha, Hurricane Beta, Hurricane Gamma, and Hurricane Delta

We need to name hurricane "Optimus Prime."

[MannyIsGod]

CNN just said it's cat 4? .... wow..

The NWS doesn't like to jump 2 catagories in one advisory, so they called it a Cat 4 and gave it 150mph winds. In all reality, the measurements support winds much higher than that and the pressure of 901 is indicative of a catagory 5 storm.

They can call it whatever they want, but you won't find a single meterologist who will deny Wilma is a 5.

3rd one this season and I think that is a record.

I'm pretty convinced at some point Wilma will break Gilberts 888mb record.

[Vashner]

I hope it leaves my precious alone (Cozumel)

[Trainwreck2100]

The NWS doesn't like to jump 2 catagories in one advisory, so they called it a Cat 4 and gave it 150mph winds. In all reality, the measurements support winds much higher than that and the pressure of 901 is indicative of a catagory 5 storm.

They can call it whatever they want, but you won't find a single meterologist who will deny Wilma is a 5.

3rd one this season and I think that is a record.

I'm pretty convinced at some point Wilma will break Gilberts 888mb record.

So it "transformed" into a cat 5.

[MannyIsGod]

Right on cue Gregory echos me...

NHC 'ONLY' UPGRADES TO CAT 4-
BUT WILMA IS A DEVASTATING CAT 5 HURRICANE
PERSONALLY ADVISE ALL FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS TO EVACUATE


Air Force RECON recently found the central pressure had fall to 901mb -- just a few MB above RITA record, and 1mb
lower than Katrina - at their Peak Intensity. The maximum Flight level winds were 162KTs in the NE quadrant, and being
conservative, this is 160mph sustained surface winds. However -- as politics would dictate -- NHC has only upgraded
the hurricane to a CAT 4, with 150mph sustained winds - 5mph below that of a CAT 5. In the Atlantic basin, pressures
below 920mb are normally associated with a CAT 5 hurricane. The storm is located at at 16.9N/82.0W and is moving NW at 5Kts.
Cloud top temps are near -87°C As cold as the temps ever get -- or at least as cold as the scale permits....


There will be several more measurements made during the next couple of hours -- but they will be difficult to take -- the eye is a mere 4NM
in diameter. I don't recall ever seeing a report of under 5NM. There is in fact, almost no room to maneuver the A/C. The pressure
was extrapolated -- from FLT Level -- but I am uncertain what that level was, though it appears they came in at about 1,400 feet.
The crew also just reported they climbed to 700mb within the eye for 'safety reasons'. That would presumably work out to around
5500ft. Just prior to penetrating the eyewall, the crew reported an East wind 158kts and a surface pressure of 899mb -- and that alone doesn't make sense. One of the 2 pressure was wrong by a few millibars. With the eye so small, the eyewall will have to be replaced within the hour -- and whether the pressure will again fall to this level is impossible to know.

The 00Z models are now even more tightly clustered a=on a landfall on the SW coast of Florida in 96 hours -- Saturday morning.

[HB22inSA]

I hate to put it this way, but I'm glad I'm going to be dead in the next 50 or so years.

I just have this bad feeling that planet Earth is headed for some extreme climate change in the next 100 years that we won't like very much.

[Das Texan]

good lord, this is just ing unreal.

[MannyIsGod]

URNT12 KNHC 190648
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/06:11:10Z
B. 16 deg 58 min N
082 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2132 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 202 deg 168 kt
G. 109 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 892 mb
I. 10 C/ 3058 m
J. 24 C/ 3034 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C2
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

175mph surface winds with a pressure of 892mb - only 4mb over the alltime Atlantic record held by Gilbert.

Not that I have a long history with hurricane tracking, but I've never seen a closed eyewall only 2 miles wide. That is pure insanity. I hope the hurricane hunters flying in there are ok, that doesn't give them much room if they get in trouble.

[MannyIsGod]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/08:00:30Z
B. 17 deg 03 min N
082 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2082 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 320 deg 166 kt
G. 221 deg 003 nm
H. 884 mb
I. 10 C/ 3073 m
J. 24 C/ 3043 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z


And why not. In the year of the record storm where hurricanes blow up into monsters in such small timeframes we have the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic. 884mb.

Hurricane Wilma is now the strongest hurricane of all time.

I'm going to go sleep for a few hours, but the data tomorrow morning should be interesting to say the least.

[TheWriter]

"Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again."

- Bush on global warming.

[spurs=bling]

i guess that answers my question.