Checking in on Oddsmakers Win Predictions

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I was looking at the Westgate oddsmakers' predictions for team win totals from the preseason back in September, and my own predictions of over/unders based on those odds. The standings are starting to take shape, and if it ended today, I'll have gone even in wins and losses, getting 15 over/unders correct and 15 wrong. I think Atlanta, San Antonio and Utah are going to flip in my favor, which would put me at 18-12 which is respectable. I bombed with the teams predicted to be at the bottom of the respective conferences getting 4 of the 6 teams predicted to finish at the bottom of the east incorrect, and all five teams predicted to finish at the bottom of the West wrong. Had I just stuck to the teams predicted to finish 1-9 in each conference I'd be sitting at 12 up, and 6 down, with a shot at 14-4....oh well. Next year I'll stick to the top half of the brackets. Truth is, I knew Washington and Cleveland were both going to be unders...should have only bet on two. The Spurs are right on the oddsmakers prediction of 45 wins. I had 48 penciled in, in September.


Westgate Oddsmakers/Current Pace/Chopper

EASTERN CONFERENCE: Currently 8-7

Boston: Odds: 59.5, Pace: 51, Chopper: Over x (me and the oddsmakers both over-estimated the Celtics)
Toronto: Odds: 55.0, Pace: 60, Chopper: Over
Philadelphia: Odds: 54.5, Pace: 52, Chopper: Under (this one is close)
Milwaukee: Odds: 48.5, Pace: 62, Chopper: Under x (oops)
Indiana: Odds: 48, Pace: 54, Chopper: Under x (damn over-achievers)
Washington: Odds: 45, Pace 33, Chopper: Under(I should have gone all-in on this one...easy pickens)
Detroit: Odds: 38, Pace 39, Chopper: Over (Yikes...close)
Miami: Odds: 42.5, Pace 37, Chopper: Under
Charlotte: Odds: 35.5, Pace 40, Chopper: Over
New York: Odds: 28, Pace 15, Chopper: Over x(Not sure what I was thinking here)
Brooklyn: Odds: 32, Pace 41, Chopper: Under x (big oops)
Orlando: Odds: 31, Pace 37, Chopper: Under x
Chicago: Odds: 30.5, Pace 21, Chopper: Under
Cleveland: Odds: 30.5, Pace 18, Chopper: Under(Another missed "all-in" opportunity)
Atlanta: Odds: 24, Pace 26, Chopper: Under x


WESTERN CONFERENCE: 7-8

Golden State: Odds 62.5, Pace 59, Chopper: Under
Houston: Odds 56, Pace 47, Chopper: Under (too much Rockets love in Vegas)
Utah: Odds 49.5, Pace 45, Chopper: Over x
Oklahoma City: Odds 48.5, Pace 54, Chopper: Over
LA Lakers: Odds: 48, Pace 41, Chopper: Over x(my fault for betting on the Lakers)
Denver: Odds 47.5, Pace 57, Chopper: Over
New Orleans: Odds 45.5, Pace 36, Chopper: Under
San Antonio: Odds: 45, Pace 45, Chopper: Over x(the precarious Spurs bet...currently sitting exactly on pace means no Christmas presents for little Chopper)
Portland: Odds 42, Pace 50, Chopper: Over
Minnesota: Odds: 40.5, Pace 40, Chopper: Under
LA Clippers: Odds: 38, Pace 45, Chopper: Under x
Dallas: Odds 34.5, Pace 37, Chopper: Under x
Memphis: Odds: 33.5, Pace 31, Chopper: Over x
Phoenix: Odds: 29, Pace 15, Chopper: Over x (well...fiddly fvck...similar to betting on the Lakers, never bet on the Suns to deliver)
Sacramento: Odds 25.5, Pace 42, Chopper: Under x (oops times 10)

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

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