Well, with the Trump trifecta and realistically quadri-fecta given the SCOTUS majority, they shouldn't have a problem overturning a lot of VRA Section II from the Lyndon Johnson era. That primarily affects Louisiana and Alabama, which will almost certainly at minimum restore the 2022 maps, and safeguards other southern safe-red states against having to draw more blue districts.
I think it's very plausible Utah gets a blue district in Salt Lake City because they have the bipartisan commission there, but Kelly Ayotte has been pretty hawkish on drawing a red district in New Hampshire. We'll see. Also Ohio with the GOP quadri-fecta and Kaptur and Sykes both almost losing this time around, I think there's a good chance we seem them both getting drawn out as well since they are forced to draw a new map anyway and the Ohio voters voted against the "bipartisan redistricting committee" amendment.
Democrats did very well in the House in 2024, particularly in New York and California and narrowly held on to Trump-won seats in the Texas RGV. The GOP did especially well in the rust belt, particularly flipping both Lehigh Valley Pennsylvania seats, holding on to PA-10 and flipping MI-07, though MI-08 should have also been a flip but with a better candidate. For the first time since the pre-REDMAP (2011) era, the Democrats benefited in an election from gerrymandering, not Republicans.
Will Hunting Winehole23 TSA
It's a felony that Henderson, Nevada is drawn into a blue district. One of the worst Democrat gerrymanders outside of Illinois. It's really too bad that Lombardo didn't really push for an independent commission which would have really helped here. There's absolutely no reason Trump should be winning a state and only getting 25% of the house seats.
The fix:
go ahead, prosecute people for drawing maps unfavorable to Republicans, it suits y'all
I wasn't suggesting that.
I was suggesting overturning racist LBJ-era legislation that no longer applies to the 21st century aside from giving one party an unfair one-way advantage over the other, sort of like Order 66 from Star Wars
If I'm the Alabama GOP / state legislature, this is EXACTLY what I'm doing with Alabama's U.S. House map, pending the 2025 SCOTUS ruling on VRAII. They fought, they fought like , the woke left judges won round 1, do unto others as they have done unto thee, and hit back twice as hard.
And the best part is, you don't even really need to draw any snake districts or ugly gerrymanders to get this done. Clean map:
If you're black in 'Bama, better get onboard with the MAGA train fast, or else move to lanta or something!!
Bonus: this map is actually skewed democrat a bit in terms of the stats, since it includes the one-off 2017 senate election, so good luck dems in ever getting a seat in Alabama ever again!
sorry this is happening to you,,,,
Ohio legally MUST re-draw this year. They have a red trifecta and a much more authentically conservative, GOP-lackey Supreme Court in 2025 than they did in 2021. RINO-centrist Maureen O'Connor no longer there. Kaptur and Sykes proven to be beatable in 2024, winning by razor thin margins.
Let's get 'er done......... North Carolina style:
states thumbing their noses at courts, Ohio has been doing this repeatedly
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/ele...rder-rcna94715Alabama Republicans on Friday defied a U.S. Supreme Court order by passing a new congressional map that includes only one majority-Black district.
The GOP-controlled Legislature had called a special session to redraw an earlier map after the Supreme Court reaffirmed a federal court order to include two districts where Black voters make up voting-age majorities, “or something quite close to it.” But on Friday, state Republicans approved a new map with just one majority-Black seat and a second district that is approximately 40% Black.
The bill passed the House in a 75-28 vote after the Senate voted 24 to 6 in favor of the revised map.
The map was completed Friday afternoon — hours before the court-ordered deadline for the Legislature to draw up new boundaries — as a compromise between the House and Senate versions.
Republican Gov. Kay Ivey signed the redistricting map into law Friday night. A federal court will hold a hearing on the map Aug. 14.
Republican judges rule that Alabama wrote a racist map and ignored orders to fix it three times
Alabama might have to use a court mandated map until the next census (2030)
https://www.courtlistener.com/docket...ligan-v-allen/We repeat — now for the third time — that these Section Two claims are not a close call. Numerosity is undisputed, extensive evidence establishes reasonable compactness, and there is no serious dispute that voting is intensely racially polarized with extreme consequences: Black candidates have enjoyed zero success in statewide elections in Alabama since 1994 (when a single Black person was elected to the Alabama Supreme Court after a previous appointment), and only three Black candidates have ever been elected to any statewide office since Reconstruction.
off-rhythm re-gerrymandering will be taken up in the lege special session
Texas did this once before, in 2003. To my knowledge, no other state has ever done it.
Last edited by Winehole23; 07-18-2025 at 04:51 PM. Reason: "Texas too many times"
https://substack.com/@walterolson/note/c-136942025The current 25-13 Texas gerrymander generally protects Republican in bents by giving them seats with margins of at least +7, hard to beat except in a big Democratic wave. To eliminate five more Dem seats, map drawers would have to slice likely R winning margins down to perhaps 3 points in many, many districts. And if they try that, even a modestly good Democratic year could flip a large number of seats in Texas Democratic at once -- what I call the tippy-boat phenomenon (and others call a "dummymander").
Let's ing GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO~~~~~
Everything seems to be on the table.
Will Hunting So much for Texas geography being bad for the GOP in the largest continental state in the US, huh?
as it turns out, Texas geography is horrible for the Dems, with inner city vote sinks making up most of the Democrat vote share in Texas in three or four big cities.
I hope Abbott and Paxton follow through on this and are all bite and not just bark. Have to be thorough. Put them in jail and replace them all with GOP appointees until the 2026 November elections when the Dems would inevitably take most if not all of those lost state seats back. But that would mean the GOP would have near to 100% state representation until January 2027, so the GOP can fast track state amendments that are permanent without filibuster, like a total abortion ban into the state cons ution, permanent school choice, and pretty much locking liberal policy out of the state forever.
I'm pro choice and whatnot, but that sort of rhetoric would literally force progressives to flee Austin to other less draconian right wing states and also attract more right wingers in from blue states to replace them because the house prices would go down temporarily with the techy progressives fleeing Austin and certain progressive parts of DFW/Houston, for a blue state.
It would solidify Texas as an >R+20 state forever, without likely losing electoral votes because conservatives looking for cheaper housing would replace the fleeing progressives. States in the northeast and other very blue states might get bluer consequently, but that doesn't matter. Do it, Hotwheels.
As usual, you're daydreaming
None of that is going to happen
The re-gerrymander could backfire by making safe R districts more compe ive in a wave election
Those damn Dems did it again!
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1952522688750346369
That'd be cool if it happens
I think that's lofty, and if they do a new census then Dem states will get to redistrict again, Illinois if they lose 2 seats could draw out another Republican if there's only 15 seats for example, NY courts might side with Dems this time if they for example draw out 2 republicans if they lose 3 seats, Florida is pretty maxed out already (geography isn't good for the GOP around Miami and Broward County), a few states simply won't draw out certain large black districts like the one in Mississippi and the one in Georgia, yes LA and AL will go back to the 2022 map if VRA II is overturned, and I'd expect Newsom's proposition to repeal the independent commission will get defeated, because moderate dems in CA have recently come out against retaliatory gerrymandering.
I've long been in favor of a 2025 mid-decade census anyway, and not because of illegals but because the 2020 census was an asterisk census because it happened *JUST* before all of the covid-related relocations.
Greg Abbott's requested 5:00 PM Thursday deadline came and went and the Texas Supreme Court left him on read
midstream redistricting has gotten compe ive, it's not just for Republicans anymore
seen Newsom's map, yes this is a liberal pipe dream, Economist/YouGov poll (generally slightly left leaning national pollster) polled that a whopping 67% of Californians would vote against repealing the independent redistricting committee if it even makes a ballot in the first place, and even with solid (D) majorities in the CA state legislature all it would take is one lawsuit, which would definitely happen, to even keep this issue from even having the chance to take effect until, at minimum, 2028, and they'd still have to get a majority to vote yea on repealing something encoded into their own state cons ution which is a very difficult process and requires a higher vote majority, and as of now voting in favor of gerrymandering doesn't even seem to be polling anywhere near even a simple majority in California, as almost all independents there including left-leaning independents are vehemently against this regardless of what happens in Texas, Illinois or any other states with partisan gerrymandering.
I wish Will Hunting was here to chime on in this matter, he seemed to actually know his stuff quite well as he knew people in DC. I really hope he didn't get carjacked to death as is the case with highest-per-capita crime infested DC at this time, he has a blue bias but has always been fair and mostly accurate, I wish him well.
carjackings are pretty rare overall, no?
Last edited by Winehole23; 08-15-2025 at 10:06 AM.
Not in DC. Apparently 33% of the population of licensed drivers there have been carjacked, including congressmen and government officials.
according to who?
Lol pretending crime isn't record high in DC.
is the basic argument here that the prevalence of carjacking in DC requires Trump to override Home Rule?
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