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That SRP debate again. Really?
Now that trading season is over, we find that the Spurs are the proud owners of lots of 2nd Round Picks. Really? What are they worth? Really.
1. One way to judge their worth--and this would be the classic use of a 2RP is to see what they can bring to the team that drafts them. Keep in mind that 80% of FRPs after the Lottery are out of the league in three years. But surely you can find that diamond in the rough like Manu at 57 in the 2R. Well, Lets look at what Sporting News says are the BEST of NBA 2RP since 1989. https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nba/...b1y196ucdwtvf7
While these are amazing finds by skilled BB team staff and coaches who picked these future players in the 2R, the Sporting News found only 24 worthy of mention in 33 years of drafts. That's less than one a year on average. So the chances of actually drafting a future All-Star are .024%. Sure there were some players drafted in the 2R who hung around the league for a while in journeyman roles, but you might as well have tossed darts at a list of possible draftees to get these kinds of success stories. In general, I think it must be a given that players drop into the 2R because 30 brain trusts of NBA teams didn't think they were that good or they had some other problem. I'm not criticizing our Spurs PATFO as lucky in the Manu pick...but it was a bit of a Hail Mary after some admittedly great scouting, no?
2. Ah, but what about using them to trade with another team to get a better player, maybe in conjunction with one of our players??? OK, this seems to be THE modern way to use 2RPs, but GMs and coaches know the statistics on the worthiness of those picks as well. Suppose we don't get a lottery pick that brings us Wemby. Can we use all those 2RPs we are storing up to get the winner of the Wemby sweepstakes to give up what many experts are calling the next generational player? Unfortunately, there is no Isaiah Thomas clone as a current GM for any of the tanking teams. No one is going to make that trade because any amount of 2RPs aren't worth it. No matter how high you stack cow flops, you are still left with nothing but cow flop.
3. I suspect that all the trading gurus will jump in here to point out that the 2RPs are often used as the lubrication to make a trade work. Great. We just got 42RPs to take on a 6' journeyman PG when giving up a player that could actually play for us. But it still looks to me like some sort of fantasy game where everyone involved refuses to admit that the emperor has no clothes or that crypto coins aren't backed by real assets. Nobody knows if those 2RPs will ever be used at any time in any meaningful way because the odds of them actually producing a rotation player, much less a star or starter are so remote. I expect some coach with a sense of humor to bring the house of cards down on 2RPs some day by drafting a three foot midget with no experience in BB at all (Ref: Eddie Gaedel, St. Louis Browns in 1951) instead of drafting some unknown player from Nowheristan to keep the music playing.
That SRP debate again. Really?
Everyone isn’t a star, nor can they be. You really NEED probably half a dozen Keita Bates-Diop level players on your roster. If you have all first rounders, some first rounder is your 15th man, and is dissatisfied.
As for the Wemby sweepstakes, no first round pick will get you into the lottery before the drawing, so your point about stacking seconds to do so is moot.
Basically i only care about the SRP with the lowest #,.tha rest are for the torsos. With so many picks from various teams the spurs have great odds of one or two great SRP per year.
The odds that NO, raptors, and probably Charlotte, and the spurs all make the playoffs is virtually zero.
What they’re really worth is whatever the Spurs end up getting for them. No amount of verbiage, now, can answer the question.
Were those SRPs worth getting? I don’t know, and neither do you.
A lot of the same discussion already had extensively yesterday. This argument feels like saying "don't bother picking up a $10 bill you find on the street, because it can't buy you a house". Sure... but it doesn't hurt, so why not? Maybe it gets you a meal (Tre Jones), maybe a winning lottery ticket (Jokic). Who knows.
I dunno, between flipping a player who wouldn't resign here and like 100k for five SRPs and nothing, I'll take the picks.
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I thought the comment about Wemby was pretty clear that it was describing a potential trade after the lottery placements are announced, not getting the first pick before the lottery placements are announced. I guess one of us read it wrong.
I’ll take all the free SRPs that teams want to throw at us. But I’d also look to continue to flip them forward, like we did with our SRP last year. One day we will be a contender again, and I’m going to want those picks to package up and pick up a Josh Richardson or dump that contract that will open up some possibility the next season.
I think that 2nd picks were the currency because most of the contenders already traded their first round picks, so there were not a lot to trade. Consequently, because teams motivated to make deals were short on first rounders (except the ones that could pull the trigger on Nets assets), all teams could keep low-balling with 2nd round picks to get what they wanted. If more top teams had not already traded their firsts, then there would be more supply of first round picks to spend and a team like the Spurs, with all the salary cap space, could have gotten some nicer draft capital.
I mean the Spurs kind of had to trade Josh Richardson for whatever the market rate for him would be. If there were a bunch of contenders with first round picks, his price would have been high in a trade. But because there wasn't, the best the Spurs could do was get a bunch of 2nd round picks. That's b/c 2nd picks, even if they aren't worth much, are "something" as opposed to letting Richardson play out his contract, become a free agent, and leave for nothing. That makes it so the White trade is a first round pick, 4 second round picks, and Romeo Langford.
Yeah I am really hoping we strike gold during this years tanks and next years tank hoping we get two All Stars which we can then use the second round picks to cherry pick seasoned vets who fit team needs. We also got some first rounders who we can use as a pick or use up with our first to trade up and pick up a talent and need first rounder - I love having options
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Also, for the next few years, spurstalk will be about how the drafts are all so deep that second rounders would be equivalent to lottery picks in any other year.
My comment also applies after the lottery draw. No first round pick(s) will get you Wemby. For him to use the inability of stacking up endless SRPs being unable to obtain Wemby as some indictment of SRPs is ridiculous, since FRPs won’t todo the job, either.
Well we have learnt that an x amount of 2nds can buy you:
- playoff run vets - Crowder, Richardson, Muscala, Bryant, GP2, Kennard, Plumlee
- young players - Hyland, Thybulle, Bey, Wiseman, McDaniels, Hachimura
- cap relief - Heat, Bucks, Suns, Philly, NO
Due to the cir stances the 2nds had the most value they've ever had. Considering the amount of firsts already traded by many teams, it appears that the future value of the 2nds won't drop either. So it's pretty damn good that the Spurs managed to get 7 more of them, some of which might be pretty good (35-45 range). Now, obviously no one expects them to make all of these draft selections - they have a total of 18 seconds in the next 7 years, but they should definitely be helpful if they decide to take a flyer on some young guy, like some teams have done the other day. Or package 2 or more to move up in the draft. This year the Spurs project to have two seconds - one low 30s, the other high 30s or low 40s. It's possible they can package them to move up to the late first round picks.
In short, there are many creative ways to use the seconds, as we've just seen.
Should be the conclusion of the oh so fascinating 2RP debate...
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