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Great stuff
Having a nearly 30% chance at one of the pick ending up Top 4 is pretty solid odds for the opportunity to have the best 3-year drafting run since OKC pulled off KD-Russ-Harden in 2007/2008/2009
Hi, haven't been around for a while, but given the lottery is around the corner and I've read some badly put together stuff online, figured I'd post the actual joint probabilities for both picks in case someone is interested:
Assuming we win tiebreaker for 13/14:
Assuming we lose tiebreaker for 13/14:
Summary:
Hope everyone is doing well. Go Spurs Go!!!
Great stuff
Having a nearly 30% chance at one of the pick ending up Top 4 is pretty solid odds for the opportunity to have the best 3-year drafting run since OKC pulled off KD-Russ-Harden in 2007/2008/2009
wow so does that say slightly less than a 1 in 3 chance at least one of the two picks is in top 4 (29-29.4%) yet almost 3 in 4 chance both picks are outside top 4 (70.5-70.9%)
Yeah that's better combined odds for a top 4 that I was expecting. I'm pleased.
This is also what some people are not understanding. It wasn't about the odds of strictly the ATL pick. It was about increasing the overall odds by combining the two picks.
Regardless of outcome. Two lottery picks give the team a good amount of flexibility from picking players to making trades.
Welcome back!
if the Spurs jump into the top 4:
With the #1 pick, obviously draft Flagg.
#2 pick, draft Harper.
#3 pick, draft VJ.
#4 pick, draft Kon or Jase.
Thanks Ariel
Do we know when the tiebreaker gets decided? Tankathon currently has Spurs at 14
As a note, the draft lottery takes place May 12, a Monday.
I'm not as in tune with the prospects as previous years, what's the reason for avoiding Ace Bailey?
1) Watched several interviews of this guy and tbh he doesn’t seem like the typical Spurs “profile”. I think he will fail their interviews badly. The Spurs don’t tend to take these types of risks unless it’s with a late first round pick (see Dejounte)
2) He’s in the same mold as past Spurs fans “greats”… the archetype people here love. Tall, athletic, shooter… and not much else. Zaccharie was in this mold, Brandon Miller was in this mold. Brandon’s more promising than Zach, but I don’t take either seriously as far as long term winners. I think the best case is that they follow the Rashard Lewis or Rudy Gay path— teams find use for them (I never denied that they’ll be useful to teams) and end up overpaying for them. For a top 4 pick, I expect a lot more, especially if a team is trying to contend and allocate their resources appropriately. I expect a two way guy, a leader in the locker room and Bailey doesn’t strike me as such.
Last edited by Dejounte; 04-19-2025 at 01:46 PM.
What's wrong with Rudy Gay? I thought he was a good player in his prime and would have looked even better if he was able to play for good teams when he was younger.
I haven't watched Risacher, but I thought he's more than just a shooter?
Ace Bailey is a very long 3 who can score and block shots and gets steals too. He can bulk up and play PF also. The knocks of character or BB IQ are not enough to pass on Bailey at the 4 spot, that’s crazy! Worst case he’s not a star so we don’t have to max him out on his rookie extension. He’ll be worlds above the underperforming 1st rounders we still have, I predict.
You could be right. I don't think the Spurs should always pass on someone due to character issues if the talent is there. If Bailey has the potential that you say, can they pass up on him if he's still there for their draft pick?
I don’t have a problem with it. The team we follow does. If we are being honest about it, we know that’s a fact. That’s where it starts and ends tbh.
in other words…
You shouldn’t be arguing with me about whether the Spurs should draft a guy with character flaws and BBIQ concerns with a top pick. We know they wouldn’t. What you should argue with me about is whether he does have character flaws and/ or BBIQ problems. It’s my observations only from watching several interviews already, so it’s up to you to watch interviews as well and use your own interpretation.
What character issues?
AI: There is no evidence to suggest that Ace Bailey has character issues. The search results mainly focus on his basketball playing style and potential as a professional player, highlighting both his strengths and weaknesses. While some concerns have been raised about his ball-handling and potential lack of "bend" in his game, these are primarily related to his basketball skills rather than character issues. There is no indication that Ace Bailey has character issues. In fact, many sources describe him as a "nice kid" with a fun personality, and there are no reports of any concerns about his character. He is often described as a "larger than life" personality who maintains motivation and focus, even with the hype surrounding him.
I don't think he has character issues, but doesn't understand how to play basketball. He has pockets of talent, but ability to process the game even past the college level is seriously in doubt. At best he's a player you'll have to build around to account for his extreme limitations in knowing what he's supposed to do, and, no, it's not a matter of 'teaching him.' There's a good chance there's just not a good, high-level basketball player there.
I think I got carried away with someone replying “character issues” to my original post, where all I said was that he would have a bad interview with the Spurs if he does get one. I didn’t say anything about character issues. Knoxx brought that up. All I was saying is that I would have trouble believing the team would go opposite the trend they’ve been going with building this team with well-spoken individuals like Barnes, Wemby, Fox. You don’t go from talking physics and dark matter with Wemby to whatever Bailey will be talking about (again, my deduction only). My sense is that there will be no chemistry there, and that’s enough for the Spurs not to pick him.
….If we all know the Spurs we know, then I’ll be right about this. Time will tell. Even if the Spurs don’t jump into the top 4, whoever they pick at 8 will also tell us that answer regardless.
Sorry, I just commented as it seemed like another poster was implying he had character issues.
Bailey should be #3 on the spurs board after Flagg and Harper
the idea of taking Kon over him is insane
I’ll honor a $100 bet with you that the Spurs, if they land the third or fourth pick, will pass on Bailey if he’s there. Honestly will be fun to witness people crashing out over something they should have known about this team already if they’ve been following it for years.
If we were certain that Ace was Rudy Gay, I'd take him #2 overall.
Alas, chances are he won't be.
To me, Bailey’s comp is Emoni Bates. Tall guys who have been alpha scorers in HS, but don’t have the chops to do it in the NBA. Same ty fractional asst/TO ratio. Their ‘skill’ was based on physical outmatching HS players, and that won’t go in the NBA.
No thanks. I’m not making a prediction on what they will do I’m giving an opinion on what they should do. I wouldn’t want to be pissed about them making a mistake and then also lose a bet to boot
If we stay at 8, I kinda like Collin Murray Boyles. We would fit at the 4 position much better than Sochan does
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