SPURS: Assessing Plan A

[howard2]

Hoopsworld.com
By Emmett Shaw
Dec 30, 2005
Link: Hoopsworld

SPURS: Assessing Plan A
Plan A for the Spurs this year was to keep together the core group that won the NBA Championship last season while signing a couple of good additions. The summer went at least as well as the team’s slogan during the previous playoffs. (One team. One goal. Mission accomplished.) To the surprise of most, Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel took less money to come play for San Antonio, and the intriguing big man Fabricio Oberto finally came to the NBA from overseas, signing for about half of the Spurs’ midlevel exception.

The Spurs went right out and methodically cranked out a 20-4 start to the season while leading the league in FG shooting, scoring nearly 100 points per game, securing a high portion of defensive rebounds, and becoming 2nd league-wide in FG% defense. But the subsequent 2-wins-3-losses eight-day stretch that ended with the Spurs being “manhandled on the backboards” at Detroit on Christmas, as ABC’s Bill Walton plainly put it, revealed that San Antonio – and Plan A – has its notable imperfections.

Adrenaline, Aggressiveness, Athleticism.

Coach Popovich was very excited to bring this veteran group together that averages nearly 30 years old because his players have the experience and knowledge to prepare for and solve younger and less savvy teams. Notice the Spurs as they talk to one another on the court, constantly organizing themselves more than any team in the league. You have to respect the collective knowledge of Spurs like Robert Horry, Bruce Bowen, and all the rest of them. Extremely smart team.

But the Spurs are not as athletic as a number of NBA teams, as the past few games have shown. If San Antonio is not “up” for a game, with emotions neither getting the adrenal glands flowing nor the aggressiveness showing, the Spurs are subject to allowing a lot of penetration and even fast breaks. New Orleans, in recently getting by the Spurs 89-76, scored 23 points on the break; two nights later Milwaukee scored 18 in its 109-107 win over SA. Going into their game with Indiana earlier this week, the Spurs were surrendering 10.7 fast-break points per game – only 12th in the league, whereas the Spurs of their championship years typically post a sterling mark in that huge defensive category.

Emotions also key the Spurs’ own running game because the Spurs get more stops and steals when they are really into competing. Manu Ginobili, who returned from his injured right foot to play 15 minutes in the Spurs’ 99-86 home victory over the Pacers, was asked afterwards about the state of SA’s own running game lately. Manu explained that it could be much better (it’s fast-break ranked 20th in the NBA going into the Indy game), but that priorities are priorities – the defense needs the emphasis currently. When SA’s defense starts cooking again, and in their last 8 starts the Spurs have allowed a slightly worse than neutral .449 FG shooting (league average is .447), only then will the Spurs have a running game.

Competing from the heart is the only way SA can deal with a Detroit team that is more athletic inside. Imagine the ball as iron and the teams’ two most decorated players as superheroes. The Spurs, for their part, at least have Tim Duncan’s magnetic hands with which to rebound. But with Ben Wallace’s magnetic body flying to the ball, backed by Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, the Pistons must be blocked out by Tim, Rasho Nesterovic, Nazr Mohammed, and Horry. If the Spurs’ bigs aren’t stoked emotionally, the Spurs will get dogged by the Pistons’ superior rebounding athletes in every meeting. On Christmas, rebounds were 57-30 Detroit. “Manhandled.”

And in defense of SA’s big men, the Spurs’ perimeter defenders have been getting beaten too often. When foes drive the basket all night, even if they are sent to the baseline side, block-out responsibilities eventually crumble. At Auburn Hills was the perfect example, and at the Hornets was the penultimate one, when Tony Parker and Bowen died on ball screens so often that even small New Orleans out-rebounded SA by 4. So the Spurs’ outside defenders also have to get intensely committed about staying in front of people or at least retreating well to help on the glass or get deflections or strips. But Tony was meekly shoved aside by Andrew Bogut at a key juncture underneath in that very situation in Milwaukee. It cost the ballgame.

Speaking of weak, the Spurs cannot afford to retreat into the hope that Miami will knock off the Pistons in the Eastern playoffs. (Yet, don’t be surprised if it happens. Yes the Pistons are currently gliding towards 70 wins; yes their front-line dominates; yes Chauncey Billups may be better than Steve Nash. But did you see how Dwyane Wade and Shaq finished off the Lakers on Christmas, with quick penetration and the lob dunk to the biggest guy in the world? Seventy wins aside, what are the Pistons – who themselves happen to stand 29th in points in the paint – going to do about that?) An aggressive championship mentality is what the Spurs need, not hoping some rival gets dumped.

What of aggression? Here is an area where the Spurs’ smarts probably work against them. Adrenaline is triggered by stress, and the Spurs are a team that uses a lot of intelligence. The contemporary saying goes “work smarter not harder”. A player who’s smart enough to do his job without stress then has little adrenal help to run faster, jump higher, stop the ball, fight over screens, or box out. The Spurs have pulled out game after game this year that was in the balance in the final quarter. The fight-or-flight centers in the players’ brains have kicked in when the Spurs realize they just might get beat. Then flows their adrenaline and aggression, but sometimes that’s too late. By then the opponents are salivating for victory too.

SA’s substantial talent and excellent offensive system leaves it so many good looks, open teammates, and driving possibilities, that its players’ aggression can be quelled. Open, you catch the ball. But Bowen’s wide open in the corner, Duncan is ducking in, and two other mates are probably going to score if you throw them a skip pass. Do you shoot, draw the D and drive, or pass – to which open guy? At times such situations are so plentiful that the Spurs don’t hungrily look for their own. Wonderful problem to have, but it can be damning.

Rod Hundley was musing this summer about being in the league almost continuously since 1957 as a player and broadcaster and never being part of a le team. “You’d think I’d get one by just being here,” he said with some disappointment. Rod had been point guard on the Lakers team that was in Game 7 of the Finals at Boston in 1962. As his team had the last shot with the game tied, Hundley had the ball above the left elbow. He could shoot it, Jerry West was to his right, and Frank Selvy was swinging open in the short corner. Rod gave it to the most open guy, Selvy. He missed. Bill Russell cleared the board and the Celtics won in OT.

“I’ve had dreams where I took that shot and made it. I would have been the king of Los Angeles,” said Hundley. It’s one of the ironies of basketball. So many good decisions to make that none of them work out. Pop calls Tony Parker’s open teammates a smorgasbord. But the guys in the smorgasbord have to be aggressive enough to make it pay. When the Spurs aren’t aggressive, they don’t set the winning tone. Opponents stay alive.

Aggressiveness often shows up in free throw attempts, and for the first time in the Robinson-now-Duncan era, the Spurs are well into a season having shot fewer FTAs than their opponents, 659-700. (This assumes 1996-97 doesn’t count, since Robinson was out for 76 games and Duncan was still in college.) A study of the last 30 NBA Champs shows that only 3 of them shot fewer FTAs than their foes in the regular season, the last being the Bulls of 1993. As mentioned though, there are statistical ironies in this game. Charles Barkley may be right: stats are for guys who never played. Chicago’s supreme 72-10 team tried only 19 more FTs than its opponents. And Walton’s Portland team in 1977 took only one more than the other guys. The prettier the team, often the less the FTA difference, and this often is a pretty Spurs team.

Modification of Plan A = Artest?

If the Spurs were able to trade for Ron Artest – and they have tried to make bold moves before, such as courting Chris Webber and Jason Kidd – it could intensify their mental approach. Nazr Mohammed would give the Pacers a lot more help on the boards than the Wolves’ Michael Olowokandi would. Rick Carlisle brought up rebounding as one of two points of concern for his team after the loss in SA, the other being consistency from more players. Candy Man and consistency do not mix.

The Spurs have another competing chip to offer – Luis Scola’s rights. Luis may never play for the Pacers, considering he plays the same position as Jermaine O’Neal and isn’t going to come to the NBA on the cheap, but Scola is a guy that Indy’s brain-trust could move on to another team. Scola, who stars in Europe, should be worth more than Minnesota’s young Rashad McCants, since Scola (at age 25) can help an NBA team now, as long as that team is willing to pay fairly close to midlevel money. That’s a lot less than, say, Utah payed for Carlos Boozer, whom Scola could be better than.

Pop would have to talk to the player first and decide he trusts Ron. And it’s very easy to argue that Artest would not be the best guy to be on the Spurs. But you have to agree that the Spurs would be great for Ron, exactly what he needs. He needs Pop to put him in a well-defined role and just turn him loose, under constructive supervision. Artest needs Pop to give him boundaries and be stern, but sane, allowing Ron to be himself. Admittedly, “himself” has sometimes been less than sane. But a huge part of Ron Artest being himself is the pursuit of winning. He needs the right place to find some peace and come into his own. San Antonio.

Ron just gets confused sometimes and seems to be listening to poor influences outside his team. Instead he should listen to Carlisle, Jermaine, and Larry Bird. In Houston for Kenny Smith’s Katrina Benefit game less than a month before training camp, Ron seemed ready to go. He told us when we asked about Indiana coming out of the East, “It’s going to be on us if we want to win or not, if we want to win a championship. And I think this is our year.” When he talks of winning, Artest defines it as going all the way. He also talked of “focus” being his mission, yet Ron lost focus so fast this season! He needs Pop. He needs the Spurs. But the Spurs have Plan A. They don’t need him.

Or do they? Phoenix has picked up Boris Diaw this year as a great answer to the LeBron, Carmelo, Rashard, Kirilenko, Prince, Deng, Jamison-types that do it all for their teams while giving their coaches flexibility to use them in big or small units. Athletic, Artest could amazingly fill the role for the next few years for the Spurs, who are probably going to have to contain Dirk Nowitzki in the second round of the playoffs. You contain Nowitzki, the Mavs will be done. Fit into the Spurs’ system, Artest is the kind of effort-every-night player who does superhero stuff, things that lift teammates into better efforts of their own. He might be a fun guy that would supe up the Spurs’ wise vets into fully competing like they can, and must, if they expect to win another NBA le. Ron Artest in San Antonio? He might lose it again – or exponentially complete Plan A.

[ShoogarBear]

Aggressiveness often shows up in free throw attempts, and for the first time in the Robinson-now-Duncan era, the Spurs are well into a season having shot fewer FTAs than their opponents, 659-700. (This assumes 1996-97 doesn’t count, since Robinson was out for 76 games and Duncan was still in college.) A study of the last 30 NBA Champs shows that only 3 of them shot fewer FTAs than their foes in the regular season, the last being the Bulls of 1993. As mentioned though, there are statistical ironies in this game. Charles Barkley may be right: stats are for guys who never played. Chicago’s supreme 72-10 team tried only 19 more FTs than its opponents. And Walton’s Portland team in 1977 took only one more than the other guys. The prettier the team, often the less the FTA difference, and this often is a pretty Spurs team.

Good article (the first part, I think all speculation about Artest is BS). This paragraph is what I've been worried about this year (other than the defense, which I assume whill gel). The Spurs are just not getting to the line this year. Part of it probably has to do with Manu's being out, but even with him in they are getting outshot at the stripe. You can afford to shoot a lower FT % if you're going to the line 5-6 times more a game than your opponent.

It's probably a combination of Tim having fewer shots, Manu out, Tony not getting some calls he should, and an overall shift to a perimeter game. But in the playoffs, they're going to need to get to the line.

[Bloodline666]

Artest in SA would work out fine on paper...but he's been known to throw a wrench in the chemistry of his team, so I don't think Artest as a Spur would be a good idea.

[sanman53]

If Artest came to the Spurs we would win 80 games ;-)

[BigVee]

Interesting viewpoint, but I think Plan A is going to be just fine.

[ChumpDumper]

Carlos Boozer, whom Scola could be better than

All that time working for Hoopsworld finally got to Emmett....

[Brodels]

All that time working for Hoopsworld finally got to Emmett....

That's what I was thinking. I don't particularly enjoy reading his stuff, but I think he could be considered a good opinion columnist if he didn't write for that rag.

[bigbendbruisebrother]

At 23-7, I'd say plan A is coming along well. I can't see Pop risking screwing up this team's emerging chemistry to bring in another wingman--one who is nuts and has a recent past of destroying team chemistry. Artest is never going to be a Spur. No way.

With the exception of the Artest speculation, I agree with this article though. The Spurs have got to get more energy, and they have got to find a way to not rely on Manu to bring it (like last night versus the Hornets).

I think the Detroit game was a good wakeup call; hopefully our guys will go on a major tear. At the very least, this team has got to demand of themselves that they are the ones who will set game tempo--not the compe ion. This Houston Oiler tendancy to play down to the level of the compe ion is the achilles heel of this team so far.

[Vashner]

ARTEST Friggin sucks? What's wrong with people?

Unless you don't HAVE a clue how the franchise works you know that Spurs would be totally stupid to bring in this Chump and risk horrible problems with team chemistry.

It should be a crime in Texas just to suggest Artest be a Spur..
And you have to be smoking crack to think otherwise.

[SouthernFried]

This is the best in-depth article about the Spurs I've read. He's nailed it.

His aggression vs. intelligence take is particularly interesting.

[superfedja]

wow this is by far the best article about the spurs I have read this year. I hope Pop or TD gets his hands on this one somehow. I think TD should be more aggressive and stop shooting jumpshots as much but go inside( get some easy buckets). I know hes 2nd in the league in pts in the paint but I believe he should be number 1. Seriously, I don't think Duncan is such a good jump shooter as he thinks he is. For the past couple of years his agressiveness has wore down and he stopped scoring in the low post and started shooting more from the perimeter( which is lowering his FG%).

I still believe Duncan will step it up come playoff time. I think he will be a lot more agressive if we ever loose some games we shouldn't during the playoffs. And I still think the Spurs will win the le but I think this lack of agressiveness can hurt him and the Spurs in the long run ( maybe in 2 or 3 years). I just hope it doesn't become a bad habitude cuz agressiveness is not something you can just turn on and off. And I'm afraid TD might take a few too many jumpshots during the finals if Ben, Rasheed and McDyess play him physically (or Shaq and Alonzo, if Miami makes it) like the Sonics did last year.

I would like the spurs to get Artest but only if we get rid of Brent Barry during the transaction otherwise we have too many SG/SF.

Happy New Year Everyone !!!

[texbound]

I agree that this article was good, but I still don't get it. Every year at this time it's the same thing, "The Spurs are soft", "The Spurs lack that Killer instinct". I watch all the games and the Spurs do look uninterested at times, but it's only January (tomorrow). An NBA season is a marathon. The Spurs are slowly pulling away from the rest of the league, while keeping their eye on the other leaders (Dallas and Detroit) waiting to make their move come March and April. It never changes. Detroit will falter some come Febuary and March. Someone on that team will miss significant games (Rip, Prince or Billups) just like Manu did. After that they will gather themselves and make a run in the Eastern conference. The Spurs are fine. I would be worried if they're still playing this way come March, but not until then.

[Dario]

Artest would bring havoc to the spurs eventually, he ain't the smartest guy around and with his authority problem the spurs chemistry would go down the drain and that is what is all about with team sports.
You can bring 12 best guys in this league together, but if half of them would hate eachother they wouldn't beat anyone.

[TwoHandJam]

Competing from the heart is the only way SA can deal with a Detroit team that is more athletic inside. Imagine the ball as iron and the teams’ two most decorated players as superheroes. The Spurs, for their part, at least have Tim Duncan’s magnetic hands with which to rebound. But with Ben Wallace’s magnetic body flying to the ball, backed by Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, the Pistons must be blocked out by Tim, Rasho Nesterovic, Nazr Mohammed, and Horry. If the Spurs’ bigs aren’t stoked emotionally, the Spurs will get dogged by the Pistons’ superior rebounding athletes in every meeting. On Christmas, rebounds were 57-30 Detroit. “Manhandled.”

To me, this is the best point of the article and something that I've been concerned about all season. Outside of Tim Duncan, our bigs pale in comparison to theirs. Rasho, Nazr, Horry are all terribly inconsistent. You know what you'll get from the Wallace's and McDyess every night which is tough rebounding, scoring and defense. They've even got Dale Davis now to throw at Tim for a good 6 hard fouls. With our guys it's a crap shoot.

I have no confidence whatsoever in Rasho to step up in any game worth a damn. If his performance on Christmas doesn't highlight this then his playoff numbers certainly do - not to mention he gets zero respect from the officials.

Nazr is capable of playing tough and rebounding but still fouls too easily and has bad defensive positioning. Horry we all know can come up big in big games but he's another year older and slower and isn't a great rebounder or terribly consistent.

The Pistons made painfully clear the need for us to have someone other that Tim in the frontcourt that is athletic and can defend and rebound consistently. We got outrebounded by 27 boards. Say what you will about us mailing in that game but that is a huge margin to blame completely on lack of focus or effort.

Outside of Tim, there's no one on our team that averages more than 6 rbg and we have 4 bigs 6'10" and taller. Michael Finley pulls down almost as many boards as our bigs. That's pretty damn sad. Detroit had McDyess pull down 13 rebs against us on Christmas. When's the last time anyone outside of Tim even hit double figures against a contender?

All this to say that I'm pretty worried about our frontcourt vs. Detroit. Artest has the skill to plug that hole nicely but he's far too great a risk to court. I feel Pop needs to look long and hard on who we could trade for to help Tim out in the paint on a consistent basis. We already may lose HCA to the Pistons - I'd like to at least be on equal footing with our frontcourt.