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I was just saying last night how funny it would be if the Spurs missed the playoffs
As Usual, Spurs Will Hit Stride Soon. Or Will They?
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
(Archive)
I've been getting some cross-eyed looks regarding the relative positions of Utah and San Antonio in the Power Rankings. The Jazz, though they entered Monday in ninth place in the West, were fourth in the power rankings, while the defending champion Spurs were only 11th.
Moreover, the Spurs were projected by our Playoff Odds on Monday to have only a 75.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, compared to Utah's 94.4 percent. Even after Utah's 97-91 win over San Antonio on Monday, it seems almost absurd to suggest that San Antonio could miss the playoffs, let alone assign them a 1-in-4 chance.
This reveals both the best and worst thing about computer models -- they don't know history and personalities. In this case, the Power Rankings and Playoff Odds don't know that San Antonio has made a huge second-half surge nearly every year of the Duncan era. Nor did they know that the catalyst for that surge, the so-called "Rodeo Road Trip", started Monday in Salt Lake City -- over the past five years the Spurs are 30-9 on this excursion.
But maybe that's a good thing. Because if you're blithely expecting the Spurs to turn it on just like they always do, I should warn you that their play of late hasn't exactly smacked of a team building toward greatness.
San Antonio began the year looking like champions, roaring out of the gate 17-3. Since then, they're only 11-12, and it's not a particularly good 11-12. Thirteen of the games were at home, and only one of the victims had a winning record.
An optimist would point that there was only one truly bad loss in the bunch, Saturday's 102-78 waxing by the Hornets, but that misses the larger point. Over the past 23 games, San Antonio has beaten all the bad teams and lost to all the good ones. In other words, they've been an average team.
Average doesn't cut the mus in these parts, which is why the Spurs still look like a team trying to find itself. We saw that again Monday, as coach Gregg Popovich continues to search for combinations that work. For instance, Matt Bonner sat the first three quarters but played nearly the entire fourth, primarily because Robert Horry and Francisco Elson once again delivered little.
On the perimeter, the absence of Brent Barry and struggles of Bruce Bowen are hampering a team that depends on the longball. Bowen has made five of his past 28 3s and is 10-of-51 from the field in his past 12 games. In an increasingly common sight, he lost crunch-time minutes to Ime Udoka Monday -- at least until Udoka's moronic ejection with 1:27 left in a two-point game.
That was the other shocking thing Monday -- some of the mental stuff seemed downright un-Spurlike. The Spurs took bad backcourt fouls with the Jazz in the bonus, got the killer tech on Udoka and another on Tim Duncan, and degenerated into a Manu-on-five offense any time the second unit was on the floor. They made 20 turnovers, and only a rare bout of free-throw accuracy (25-of-28) kept things interesting.
Of course, we shouldn't begin composing epitaphs just because the Spurs lost on the road by six to a fellow le contender on a rare night when Andrei Kirilenko couldn't miss a jumper. Let's face it, at least two-thirds of the league's teams would kill for San Antonio's problems. The Spurs still have the fourth-best record in the conference -- two games ahead of the Jazz, mind you -- and a solid plus-4.7 average scoring margin. Given that, how can we say there's a 1-in-4 chance they're headed to Lottoville?
Here's how: Unlike Utah, the tough part of the Spurs' schedule is still to come. Like I said, the computer doesn't know San Antonio's history in past seasons on the rodeo trip. But given the Spurs' recent play and the upcoming games (Phoenix, Cleveland, Toronto, Washington and Boston, among others), it looks like a doozy.
And not only are the Spurs' next eight games on the road after they played 25 of the first 42 at home, but even after the rodeo trip the schedule is rough. The likes of Dallas and Phoenix have been backloaded into March and April to create national TV games, meaning many of the cupcakes are already out of the way -- 25 of the Spurs' final 40 games are against teams with winning records.
Even with all that, it's still hard to imagine a San Antonio team with the likes of Duncan, Parker and Manu Ginobili missing out on the playoffs entirely. But throw in an ankle sprain to one of those three and put them in a conference where 48 wins might be needed to gain entry to the postseason, and it's a different story. That's why the Playoff Odds say there's a 1-in-4 shot of the unthinkable happening.
In the meantime, San Antonio obviously has much loftier goals than just making the playoffs. Yet as the rodeo trip begins, Utah looks much closer to being championship caliber than the four-time champs do. Maybe that's because the Spurs are lying in the weeds, like they've often done, and busily preparing their annual February surge.
Or maybe something is truly different this year. Based on how the Spurs have played over the past month and a half, we shouldn't dismiss that possibility too rapidly.
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Here's a question. Last season at this point did the Spurs look better or worse? And do you think it's possible for the Spurs to turn it around this season as they did last? My answer to these questions: No and No. Last season they may have looked just as bad...but at least the players were relatively healthy.
I was just saying last night how funny it would be if the Spurs missed the playoffs
hey if they keep playing like this. they deserve it.
damn thought he was a homer lol
That is the dumbest headline I've ever seen.
If the Spurs did somehow miss the playoff they'd probably be a monster team next season... A very rested Td, Manu, Tp combined with new role players like Splitter and a lotto pick. Forget it if they did the unthinkable and landed the top pick with a guy like KSU's Beasly probably coming out...
Hollinger would do well in waiting until the patient is dead before trying to bury it.
I gotta respect Hollinger's complete lack of shame about being a tool.
LOL welcome to the Rockets world. Where suckage is normal.
Power rankings, Hollinger stats....
If these were the basis for trophies, the Suns would be going for their 4th chip in a row.
Spurs tank and get OJ Mayo?
Just like the Rockets were going to win the le?
We'd be worse than the Heat last year.I was just saying last night how funny it would be if the Spurs missed the playoffs
this one really hurt me... Hollinger year after year says we won;t make it.. he is one of the biggest passion igniter's in the press
If you read the article, there's nothing really over the top or inaccurate about his analysis. He doesn't ever say the Spurs will "definitely" not make the playoffs. 75% chance that they will make the playoffs, in fact. He just says right now, with the way the Spurs are playing, and the fact their schedule actually gets tougher, the Jazz have a better chance of making the playoffs if you don't take into consideration history of the teams and other non-computer formula factors. I don't see what's so bogus or wrong about the article. Of course the Spurs will make the playoffs. He's just basically saying the Spurs have been unusually poor so far this season and the schedule actually gets tougher for them.
This is BS the Spurs have played more WC teams than many other top teams and have only lost 9 games when the big three played together - assuming no major injuries Spurs in playoffs easily.
He done said things we din't like!
We lynch dem fellers who says things we dun't like!
Spurs not make the playoffs? To assume that is asinine.
Throw enough Hollinger crap on the wall, 's gotta stick sometime, eh?
It's definitely a stretch to say the Spurs won't make the playoffs. That is predicated on the rest of the WC teams playing the way they are and nobody dropping off. Odds are some teams probably start falling from grace post All-Star break.
I would not mind the Spurs trading Robert Horry and Elson at this point.
Although Elson's jumpshot looks good at times. Its his defense or lack of that gets me ticked.
As a matter of fact, trade both of them for Wilcox.
Exactly. People on here are such whiners. If anyone looks at the Spurs or mentions anything they don't like...then the person writing it is an idiot. Thats why there are very few people on here that know , or that I respect. Its a legit article that is extremely accurate. It doesn't say the Spurs suck...it just says that the West is extremely tough this year and "anything" can happen. The Spurs post a "sub" .500 Rodeo trip, at the end of it, they probably won't be 1 on the top 8 teams. On top of that, they are a possible injury away from flat out not making it. Manu tweaks his thumb again, say a month down the line, they won't have time to recover and get in. Not saying I don't think they will. I believe they will be in the playoffs right in the thick of things...but its not a given as in years past.
Stop being such ing babies because not every writer sucks the Spurs nut sack.
Spurs are as close to having the #1 seed (and are closer to it than at this same time last season), as they are to missing the playoffs.
Either is possible, the latter is more likely.
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