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no, they must win 16 games AFTER the regular season
The Spurs have never won the championship if they won fewer than 70% of their regular season games. So it follows, that they must win 58 games this year if history is important, which I think it is. Now where are the 14 wins that are necessary? Let's examine their remaining schedule:
7 games they will be prohibitive favorites *
5 games that they will be slight favorites #
4 games they will be slight underdogs **
3 games that they will be prohibitive underdogs##
Wed, Mar 12 @ New Orleans **
Fri, Mar 14 @ Detroit ##
Sat, Mar 15 @ Philadelphia *
Mon, Mar 17 Boston 8:30 PM #
Thu, Mar 20 @ Chicago *
Fri, Mar 21 Sacramento *
Sun, Mar 23 @ Dallas ##
Tue, Mar 25 @ Orlando **
Wed, Mar 26 LA Clippers *
Fri, Mar 28 Minnesota *
Sun, Mar 30 Houston #
Tue, Apr 1 Golden State *
Fri, Apr 4 @ Utah **
Sun, Apr 6 @ Portland **
Wed, Apr 9 Phoenix #
Fri, Apr 11 Seattle *
Sun, Apr 13 @ LA Lakers ##
Mon, Apr 14 @ Sacramento#
Wed, Apr 16 Utah #
To get to the magic number, the Spurs must win every game that they are favored(12) and two that they are not favored to win. I think it is very much a possibility, but they must play up to their potential each game and they can not afford to have any letdowns against the weaker teams, or the 58 wins would be improbable and the dream of the elusive back to back championship would be squashed.
Also, if they can get to 58, I think that they would have the #1 seed, which this year is important, IMO, given the Spurs suspect and pedestrian road record.
Last edited by Jimcs50; 03-12-2008 at 10:20 AM.
no, they must win 16 games AFTER the regular season
John Hollinger, I didn't know you were a SpursTalk member.
True, they have never have won a championhip without winning at least 15 postseason games.
The Spurs have also never won a championship back to back.
Also, never in even years.
I think the win # is more indicative of the fact that the Spurs win % during the duncan era has consistently been high, rather than a measure of the strength of the team for each individual year. Plus, each year since 1999 that we did not win it we had a record right about 57-58 anyway.
This Spurs team has the firepower, the experience and the mental toughness. What matters now is health, getting the rotation down with the new players, and getting the chemistry on both ends going.
Spurs will finish #2
The Lakers have an easier schedule,plus THESE Spurs are not built for the season theyre are built for the playoffs.
I dont expect too much the remainder of this season but i do expect alot in the playoffs....i only see two teams who MAYBE can beat the Spurs in a 7 game series...
lakers and suns
To me, those 2 historical oddities are not statistically revelant. In 00, the Spurs would have repeated had TD not missed the playoffs with the torn meniscus, in 04, the Spurs were screwed by a poor clock keeper when Fisher caught a pass, spun, elevated and released the game winner with 0.4 secs(an impossibility). In 06, it was the boneheaded foul by Manu that handed the Mavs the win on a silver platter.
As I said, with the Spurs poor road record(in comparrison to other seasons) I feel that it is relevant that they get HCA in at least 3 series in order to get that elusive back to back le.
agree,agree, and agree
I'm not sure there's anything magical, either, about winning 58 games (or 70%). It's a trend, but not one that is particularly relevant in a statistical sense. That is, I don't think it's somehow statistically impossible for the Spurs to win a le if they win 57 or 56 regular season games -- it's just something they've never done before.
I do think these last 19 are about getting things worked out -- Pop still seems uncertain about things like how he's going to use Manu and where other guys fit into the rotation -- and building some momentum, but I don't know that 14-5 is somehow a magical end point.
As it stands, when the Spurs get to the end of next Monday, the schedule turns slightly more favorable as 7 of their last 14 are against teams that won't make the playoffs and 8 of the last 14 are at home. They'll also have a lot more downtime between games after the 5 games in 7 days that end with the home game against the Clippers.
In the short term, I think the focus should be on getting at least 2 of 3 on this trip. Get that done and suddenly, things start to look much better in terms of getting a top 4 seed. If they can get that done and get some help when Houston turns the corner and plays their next tough stretch (LAL, BOS, @NO in 4 nights; those teams plus @GST and @PNX for a 5 in 7), the chances to win the division and solidify a top 2 seed increase dramatically as well.
The way the west is looking this year I think you have to throw 58 out the window. The Spurs could still look like the best team in the league at the end of the year with 55, or still look vulnerable with 60. The one thing I can agree with is that this home stretch is probably more critical than ever, both because of stiffer compe ion all around and the need for better team cohesion.
Spurs schedule is so freaking hard...
oh contrare' I think this year is the most important year to be at least the 2 seed, as I do not think that there is any chance for any team to get through the West without HCA in 2 of the 3 series in the Western Conference playoffs. This does not even take into account being the the road team against both Detroit and Boston in the Finals.(which you would be, if you are not #1 or #2 seed in West) No team will win 3 series this year as the road team and win the championship....I would bet the farm on that.
I think it's pretty unlikely that the Finals will start in the Western Conference city this year, regardless of who gets through to that point. The difference between the Lakers (currently #1 in the West) and the Celtics (currently #1 in the East) is about 7 losses with less than 20 games to play. For the best team in the West to have HCA in the Finals, both the Celtics and Pistons are going to have to absolutely collapse (or get beaten in the playoffs) and someone in the West is going to have to go on some incredible closing run. If the Celtics just finish 13-7, the West #1 will basically have to go undefeated to catch them.
how is it that the spurs are ## to losing to dallas, la, and detroit? and then ** to losing to orlando and PORTLAND?!?! wow..
that guy has his head stuck up the wrong butt..
we have to play Finley 20 minutes
Are you freaking re ed or can you just need read?
Do you understand the words coming out of my mouth???
The Spurs will be prohibitive dogs to Detroit, Dallas and LA(the ## teams) and slight dogs to the ** teams.....do you not agree???? The Portland game might be a pickem or even a possible Spurs being a slight fav, given Portland's play of late, but the other slight dog games will be just that.
BTW, SA is 2.5 dog tonight....just as I said they would be.
Last edited by Jimcs50; 03-12-2008 at 12:18 PM.
I'd put the Spurs as prohibitive underdogs against Utah on the road. They are brutal at home this year.
Going back to what I was saying earlier, I'm not saying that home court won't be important, far from it. I'm just saying that 58 as any sort of magic number is hard to see this year. Almost all of the top teams have a tough stretch or two ahead of them and the #1 could go to a team with 55-56 wins. On the flip side, maybe LA finds yet another gear to kick into and 60 isn't enough to get #1.
I think this year the 58 games mark is irrelevant indeed, simply because the west has never been so good in recent memory. Not any of the good teams in the west will achieve the record their roster would command on another "normal" season.
Last years' Dallas would be happy to get 58 wins this year.
I am winning to bet that 58 will be the magic number for SA to get HCA.
Could be, but SA has always played well against Utah and the oddsmakers look at past history. The games are usually close in Utah, with the exception of game 3 last year in playoffs.
I am not jinxing them on getting 58, I am saying that if they get to 58, it will be good enough for #1 seed.
Wed, Mar 12 @ New Orleans Loss
Fri, Mar 14 @ Detroit Loss
Sat, Mar 15 @ Philadelphia Win
Mon, Mar 17 Boston 8:30 PM Win
Thu, Mar 20 @ Chicago Win
Fri, Mar 21 Sacramento Win
Sun, Mar 23 @ Dallas Loss
Tue, Mar 25 @ Orlando Win
Wed, Mar 26 LA Clippers Win
Fri, Mar 28 Minnesota Win
Sun, Mar 30 Houston Win
Tue, Apr 1 Golden State Win
Fri, Apr 4 @ Utah Loss
Sun, Apr 6 @ Portland Win
Wed, Apr 9 Phoenix Win
Fri, Apr 11 Seattle Win
Sun, Apr 13 @ LA Lakers Win
Mon, Apr 14 @ Sacramento Loss
Wed, Apr 16 Utah Win
I think they win tonight and at Dallas and at Sacto, but lose to Orlando and LA in LA....otherwise, I agree with your picks.
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