Roster Reload - ESPN insider says Spurs could be even better

[Rummpd]

The Ideal Roster
Could they actually get better?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playo...od_nba_xxx_xxx

Here's a look at some of the options available in our final Roster Reload of the 2014 NBA playoffs.

2014-15 STATUS QUO BASELINE: 61.9 wins

(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)

Elhassan: They're not as great as they used to be as individual players, but the Spurs' success still starts with the Big 3: Tony Parker led the way again as the team's "primary" offensive option, and was his usual efficient self in the paint while remaining judicious with his perimeter shot selection. Manu Ginobili experienced a bounce-back season, and was one of the best bench players in the league this year, while Duncan was his usual stalwart self, as a terrific defensive anchor and rebounder and reliable go-to option offensively even without demanding touches. The youth corps for San Antonio, Tiago Splitter and Kawhi Leonard, both were outstanding defensively and showed growth in their offensive games (particularly Leonard, who started the season slowly, then was injured). Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli ... look, everyone played exceedingly well in the system and stepped up when called upon.
Leonard
Soobum Im/USA TODAY SportsLeonard had a Paul George-type postseason and should take on an even larger role in the Spurs' offense.

Doolittle: Nothing ever changes in San Antonio, and so long as Gregg Popovich, Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and company are around, the Spurs will look like a championship contender on paper. And they'll be one in the real world, too. There was no real difference between this year's Spurs and last year's version, other than the final result. There are some subtle changes. Tony Parker hits 30 next season, and his forecast dips a little. But that's offset by Leonard's rise and the presence of Patty Mills. It'll be interesting as always to see what kind of upgrades Popovich and R.C. Buford make on the margins. They've always had a knack for knowing when to let go to avoid cluttering the payroll, and we've seen players such as Beno Udrih, Gary Neal and DeJuan Blair move on to productive roles elsewhere. The San Antonio machine really is a marvel of efficiency. Despite the strength of the roster, Splitter is the only player on the roster with guaranteed money on the books beyond next season.
II. Shake it up

Elhassan: Duncan can opt out of his $10 million deal, but he would likely do so only to re-sign a more cap-friendly deal for San Antonio. Austin Daye's salary is only $250,000 guaranteed, so expect him to be waived then re-signed via the veteran minimum, if at all. Otherwise, the Spurs' main free agents are Diaw, Matt Bonner and Mills. Diaw is most likely to return: he's in a comfortable situation, playing alongside his best friend in a system and for a coach who respects and take advantage of his talents.

Mills is most likely to leave: After having a career year, someone will likely give him the type of contract that the Spurs would deem too rich, much like Neal's departure to Milwaukee a year ago. That leaves stretch big Bonner, who played the fewest minutes of his eight-year San Antonio tenure. It wasn't his shooting that kept him on the outskirts of the rotation, as he connected on 43 percent of his 3PA. Rather, it was his defensive issues. Bearing that in mind, the Spurs could seek to upgrade their stretch big position by pursuing Channing Frye, who can opt out of the last year of his deal in Phoenix. An elite shooter, Frye also is an underrated post defender and works well within team defensive schemes, and he was rebounding the ball well until he began to wear down over the second half of the season.
Doolittle: Barring some unexpected retirement pressers, there won't be any major upheaval in San Antonio. Diaw and Mills are important players headed for free agency, but if they leave, the Spurs will find someone to fill their respective roles at a level of remuneration appropriate to the pay structure. They always do. There's the No. 30 pick, and if you're a betting person, you'd predict it will be spent on a person who makes his residence outside the borders of this country, while last year's first-rounder, Livio Jean-Charles, remains highly regarded. San Antonio retains the rights to DeShaun Thomas as well, and he looked like a potential NBA player last summer. The area of weakness along the team stat line was a 13th-place ranking in turnover rate. That's actually six spots better than last season, but miscues burned the Spurs during the first round. Mills had the lowest turnover rate among the regulars even though he's a guard, and if he leaves, the Spurs will need someone who can calm the offense when things get ragged.
Elhassan: I opted to renounce all free agents to remove cap holds, with the exception of Diaw, who I resigned to a three-year, $11 million deal starting at $3.5 million. With the resulting cap space, the Spurs can offer Frye a three-year, $19.6 million deal starting at $6.25 million: it's a pay cut for him, but an opportunity to be a contributor on a team poised to win a le. Finally, I'd bring back the renounced free agent Mills by offering a three-year deal starting with the room from the midlevel exception starting at $2.7 million. Of course, the Spurs would have more flexibility if Duncan is willing to opt out and lower his salary, but that might be a bit much to ask of someone who has already sacrificed so much.
Ideal 2014-15 roster
Pos Player Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Tiago Splitter 30 $9.3m 3.6
PG Tony Parker 33 $12.5m 5.6
SG Danny Green 28 $4.0m 5.5
SF Kawhi Leonard 24 $2.9m 8.8
PF Tim Duncan 39 $10.0m 8.5
bC Boris Diaw 33 $3.5m 1.1
bPG Patrick Mills 27 $2.7m 4.2
bSG Manu Ginobili 38 $7.0m 6.4
bSF Marco Belinelli 29 $2.9m 1.5
bPF Channing Frye 32 $6.3m 4.7
RES1 Jeff Ayres 28 $1.9m -0.8
RES2 Cory Joseph 24 $2.0m 0.7
Est. Payroll: $62.2 million; Updated Win Range: 60 to 64
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 o

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Why waive Mills or Bonner. Just sign them the first day of FA and the capholds are removed.

I resigned Bonner as an insurance policy for the regular season. He was starting or playing major minutes off the bench when Duncan didn't play and did very well.

Mills, the Spurs have the Bird rights to him. They can go over the cap to resign their own players and still have the MLE and BAE. I am not that high on Frye. Spurs don't need a stretch four as much as they need another wing defender. Spurs struggled when Kawhi got into foul trouble early in the Mavs, OKC and Mia series.

If he opts out, I still would like the Spurs to try and sign Kirilenko. He would give the Spurs that Dynamic wing defender that would make them dominating defensively all around.

[travis2]

Doolittle: ...Tony Parker hits 30 next season, and his forecast dips a little.

WTF?!

[cd98]

Doolittle: ...Tony Parker hits 30 next season, and his forecast dips a little.

WTF?!

Yeah, was this article written two years ago?

[Chinook]

It also says Splitter is part of the youth movement.

[xmas1997]

Why waive Mills or Bonner. Just sign them the first day of FA and the capholds are removed.

I resigned Bonner as an insurance policy for the regular season. He was starting or playing major minutes off the bench when Duncan didn't play and did very well.

Mills, the Spurs have the Bird rights to him. They can go over the cap to resign their own players and still have the MLE and BAE. I am not that high on Frye. Spurs don't need a stretch four as much as they need another wing defender. Spurs struggled when Kawhi got into foul trouble early in the Mavs, OKC and Mia series.

If he opts out, I still would like the Spurs to try and sign Kirilenko. He would give the Spurs that Dynamic wing defender that would make them dominating defensively all around.

I agree about AK47. We will have to see what he does.
And I think they will draft someone from inside the USA with their #30th pick and maybe even trade up.

[Mal]

Spurs should retain Mills and Diaw for Diaw, Mills and Bonner money. If Mills is resigned, CoJo should be gone. 2 mil is too much for 3rd PG and he has nice trade value. Try trade him in package with Errors.

[Mark in Austin]

Frye is interesting but I'm not convinced he is that much better than Bonner defensively. At this point in his career, does he have the foot speed to keep up with perimeter 4's? And Diaw is going to get paid at least as much as he earned this year, probably a little more. My guess is somewhere between $5M & $6M.

[Chinook]

Frye is a stretch-five, which is pretty much the rarest skill-set in the league. As far as I know, there are only three such players in the league, and Channing is the best of them. He'd be incredibly valuable to the Spurs, but it would weird to see the team blow 2015 cap space on him. The nice thing about it is that he and Splitter would be a fine combo no both sides of the ball.

[Chinook]

Spurs should retain Mills and Diaw for Diaw, Mills and Bonner money. If Mills is resigned, CoJo should be gone. 2 mil is too much for 3rd PG and he has nice trade value. Try trade him in package with Errors.

$2 Million is not too much to pay when your stars are making so little. Tim, Tony and Manu took less so that the Spurs didn't have to roster moves due to financial constraints.

That said, as much as I like Joseph, he's certainly not untouchable. If the Spurs could trade him for a pick to use on Vasilije Micic, I'd consider that pretty good deal. Micic seems to have great potential as a play-maker and has the size to play both guard positions. He'd make a fine compliment to Mills and potential successor to Ginobili.

[xmas1997]

$2 Million is not too much to pay when your stars are making so little. Tim, Tony and Manu took less so that the Spurs didn't have to roster moves due to financial constraints.

That said, as much as I like Joseph, he's certainly not untouchable. If the Spurs could trade him for a pick to use on Vasilije Micic, I'd consider that pretty good deal. Micic seems to have great potential as a play-maker and has the size to play both guard positions. He'd make a fine compliment to Mills and potential successor to Ginobili.

I thought that was why they got Belli.
And what about Kirilenko?

[Chinook]

I thought that was why they got Belli.
And what about Kirilenko?

They got Beli to replace Neal. While Marco can take the load off Manu, he doesn't seem like he could replace him at all. No one can really take Manu's place, obviously, but I mean Beli doesn't seem to have it in him to be a primary play-maker. The Spurs need badly to invest in a real point-guard. Micic is my favorite PG in the Spurs' area of the draft. The fact that he could play next to Mills is just icing on the cake.

Oh, and what about Kirilenko? Did I miss something with him?

[Mel_13]

Oh, and what about Kirilenko? Did I miss something with him?

[xmas1997]

They got Beli to replace Neal. While Marco can take the load off Manu, he doesn't seem like he could replace him at all. No one can really take Manu's place, obviously, but I mean Beli doesn't seem to have it in him to be a primary play-maker. The Spurs need badly to invest in a real point-guard. Micic is my favorite PG in the Spurs' area of the draft. The fact that he could play next to Mills is just icing on the cake.

Oh, and what about Kirilenko? Did I miss something with him?

Didn't he only sign with the Nets for one year?

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Didn't he only sign with the Nets for one year?

He has a player option. It looks like he will opt out this offseason.

[poop]

There are so many errors in that stupid article i stopped reading

[Chinook]

Didn't he only sign with the Nets for one year?

Essentially. Used the mMLE and can opt out. I don't know how much interest the Spurs would have if he did, though. The main appeal of AK was that he'd be a secondary Lebron/Durant defender. While the Finals did show that it would be nice to have someone to check James when Kahwi gets into foul trouble, I don't think Kirilenko really showed well in that regard during the ECSF. I'm not sure he was noticeably better at defending James than Diaw (who wasn't really good) was. While I think the team would take him over Ayres, I doubt they'd spend the MLE on a player who wouldn't be in the top-8 of the rotation.

[cjw]

Why waive Mills or Bonner. Just sign them the first day of FA and the capholds are removed.

I resigned Bonner as an insurance policy for the regular season. He was starting or playing major minutes off the bench when Duncan didn't play and did very well.

Mills, the Spurs have the Bird rights to him. They can go over the cap to resign their own players and still have the MLE and BAE. I am not that high on Frye. Spurs don't need a stretch four as much as they need another wing defender. Spurs struggled when Kawhi got into foul trouble early in the Mavs, OKC and Mia series.

If he opts out, I still would like the Spurs to try and sign Kirilenko. He would give the Spurs that Dynamic wing defender that would make them dominating defensively all around.

I'd renounce Bonner as he'll be signed to vet minimum deal anyway. The cap hold is less for the roster spot (2nd year player vs. 10th or whatever Bonner is). Probably a difference of several hundred thousand bucks but can be meaningful in maneuvering. Once FA is over, they can just go sign Bonner at the minimum.

[Seventyniner]

Frye is a stretch-five, which is pretty much the rarest skill-set in the league. As far as I know, there are only three such players in the league, and Channing is the best of them. He'd be incredibly valuable to the Spurs, but it would weird to see the team blow 2015 cap space on him. The nice thing about it is that he and Splitter would be a fine combo no both sides of the ball.

Are the others Bonner and Bargnani? Mehmet Okur must be rolling over in his grave.

[Mel_13]

I'd renounce Bonner as he'll be signed to vet minimum deal anyway. The cap hold is less for the roster spot (2nd year player vs. 10th or whatever Bonner is). Probably a difference of several hundred thousand bucks but can be meaningful in maneuvering. Once FA is over, they can just go sign Bonner at the minimum.

Those small amounts only matter in year that a team intends to use cap space. The Spurs won't be using cap space in 2014. All their player signings will made using various exceptions to the salary cap.

[Chinook]

Are the others Bonner and Bargnani? Mehmet Okur must be rolling over in his grave.

I did miss Bargs. I guess there are four. The others were Hawes and Antic. Bonner's a stretch-four.

[Nathan89]

Spurs definitely need a stretch big and I'd really like Frye to do that for the Spurs. His skill set would flourish in the Spurs system.

[letmk]

Spurs should retain Mills and Diaw for Diaw, Mills and Bonner money. If Mills is resigned, CoJo should be gone. 2 mil is too much for 3rd PG and he has nice trade value. Try trade him in package with Errors.

I feel CoJo can be even better next season, giving us a pleasant surprise. Plus, if he doesn't progress as expected, you can always trade him before Feburary deadline instead of now.

[Nathan89]

Frye
Diaw
Leonard
Ginobili
Parker

Would be a sick offensive lineup tbh.

[Seventyniner]

I did miss Bargs. I guess there are four. The others were Hawes and Antic. Bonner's a stretch-four.

I thought you'd consider Bonner a five because his strength on defense is in the post. What is your distinction?