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Variance hits even the most skilled poker players. Will you be able to withstand it?
To the other poker players on the site, i was thinking about making some videos of me playing in Sit n Go's on pokerstars, to share with you my thought processes, im far from being a pro, but i cash regularly around 50-60 percent of the tourneys i play in on a given day. I play mostly single table sit n goes but have been playing 18-27-45 player sit n goes and doing pretty well lately. In the last two days ive won over $600. If anyone is interested in this let me know, i play a tight very agressive style and i also change gears and can be loose agressive as well when i have a big stack.
I will use camtasia to record the tourneys and voice narrate them if anyone is interested.
I have also found that the higher buy in ive played in the better i play. I mostly play $10 sit n goes, but when i play in $20 or $50's i do well. Once i build my bankroll a little bit more im going to start playing in $50 and $100 sit n goes regularly.
Variance hits even the most skilled poker players. Will you be able to withstand it?
Actually ive been profitable for 2 years running how is that for variance? My weakness is in cash games, I consistantly cash in single table sit n goes. Im focusing more on multi tables and cash games at the moment. I have also taken down several small tourneys in Vegas, so i definitely have the skills. I am going to play in a couple of the smaller buy in events at the World Series this year as well.
Whats your ROI?
Ah, variance. If you were going to bankroll for $200NL cash games, would you go with 30 buy-ins? 40?
When I finish my thesis I think I might spend some time playing $200NL. It's a good level because the players are not overly strong and I've succeeded at it for quite a while now, maybe 4 years. I'm willing to put some time and money into it and see what comes out the other end...
Pokers out....havent you heard? it is all about chinese checkers now!
Whats your winrate in BB/100?
My R.O.I is running at 34 percent.(STSITNGOS) And about the $200NL i would say 30-40 buy ins would be correct.
I only recently started playing in multi table sit n goes and my ROI is 226 percent.
If your ROI is at 34% you're not only running hot you're running extremely hot. Whats te sample size of tourneys we're talking about?
I stick to a 20-30 buy in rule myself. Go with whatever makes you comfortable but I think under 20 is too risky. You should drop down if you start playing poorly anyway.
I gave up playing SNGs. Too many people pushing small edges and they become really hard to make money in over the long run because you have to push every small edge and suffer through some big swings.
34 percent is with a sample size of 280 games played now if i can just stay away from the cash games...
I used to run 2 or 3 st sit n gos at a time, now i pretty much do one but sometimes two and my winning percentage has gone up dramatically.
Your ROIs are far from accurate. I don't want to pour cold water on you or rain on your parade or w/e, but those ROI's are even attainable at the lowest level SNGs over a reasonable sample size. Be prepared to get kicked in the teeth by variance soon. I once posted a graph of a month long downswing I had on here, I don't know if you can find it but it was ing nasty dude.
The thing is everyone thinks they're Phil Ivey when they're on a heater. Nothing you do is wrong and even when you make bad plays they turn out perfectly for you. Then when things start evening out you start playing worse because you're pressing. I know that I play much worse in my downswings but I've had millions of hands under my belt.
I used to 12 table Party turbos a couple of years ago. Thats how mindless those things are. I honestly don't knwo what the state of Stars SNGs is now but I'd imagine their 27 dollar turbos are still pretty easy money if you can do sets of 6-8 at least.`
Im not claiming to be Phil Ivey however my success in live play small tourneys and online leads me to believe that Im doing just fine. I understand variance and the tough runs of cards however my style of play in the single table sit n gos gives me a good chance to win or cash every time i sit down at the table. It's me against 8 other players, usually 2 or 3 of which are complete donkeys from the get go, so now its me against 5, where 3 cash. With my agressive style of play i like my chances and ive been doing just fine.
What I'm trying to say is that you can't draw any conclusions from your small sample size. You could have tremendous holes in your game and be ahead simply out of sheer luck. Thats not to say you're not doing the right things and crushing those games, thats just saying that you need to leave open the very possibility that you're not.
I know im far from playing perfect poker, but is there really such a thing? Poker is a lot like chess, it takes an insane amount of patience, some faults i do have is that sometimes i get impatient and play a hand i shouldnt, i also play for too long or when im tired. And sometimes my agression gets me into hot water but for the most part i make good decisions, i can get away from big hands(very important) and as long as i get my money in good most of the time thats all that i can ask for. Right now is a side income however im serious about it, read tons of books, im a member of realpokertraining.com. Will i ever become a pro? Probably not. But in my brief span of playing poker which goes back to maybe 3 years ive done pretty good.
I've never heard of realpokertraining.com, but just read twoplustwo's forums and you'll probably get better info there.
Good luck.
I also read 2+2 forums, reapoker traning is a membership based site with tons of videos done by internet pros, its nowhere near as big as cardrunners.com which has 10k members, im going to join there soon after ive ingested all of the knowledge at rpt.
One good aspect of making a video is trading it with someone and reviewing each others play.
Manny where do you play now?
I quit playing online for the most part when Party Poker shut me out. It was just too easy to make money there.
I should look into it again somewhere, since i work from home now, would leave me so much time to get a lot of hands in...I sort of took a hiatus from poker about the same time PP had their issues, and i honestly havent looked back much...
I am heading out to vegas for a couple of weeks in June, and of course will be playing the majority of my time there...that has peaked my interest again somewhat.
BTW i have played with you a couple of times at home games around town, back a couple of years ago...through txpokerclub.com
one i remember was out in shertz area, and you played maybe 1 hand all night
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