Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[TSA]

I posted incorrect threads together. Here is what I meant to post together.

[MannyIsGod]

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Thats the site I've been using and it has some useful information that I hadn't noticed before. If you scroll down to the map, you can click on a state and the data is filtered for that state. You can then scroll down even further and see a plot with a function for best fit plotted on the curve. This gives you a daily growth percentage which you can then use the rule of 70 to calculate the doubling time in days.

So for example, Louisiana's daily growth rate is 27%. 70/27 = a doubling time of ~2.6. At the current rate, its completely within reason to expect to see the current 1800 cases grow to 60,000 in the next 2 weeks. That is pretty ing bad.

[MannyIsGod]

This is why its hard for me to be optimistic when analyzing data for this online:

The COVID tracking project had the figure at 3800. That's a HUGE difference.

There's not a single place over representing data but there is a ton of under representing. We know cases are way under reported. There's a huge lack of hospitalization and negative test information. The death counts are likely pretty good, but they're also prone to severe lag times of up to 1 month so they don't tell you what the current situation is.

Its hard as to say that things are going to turn out better than the current trends say when we know the data is severely underrepresented.

[SnakeBoy]

China just closed borders to foreigners

fears of 2nd wave grow

its not over even in china while we are not even in diapers yet

this will be a long ing fight and it will get much worse before we even see a glimmer of hope

This is the way it will be until enough people have had it to provide some level of herd immunity. We (the world) can only do our best to have a controlled burn rate and hopefully save many lives.

[hater]

since you nigas seem enthusiastic about this stuff heres a good site to play with parameters galore with coronavirus scenarios

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/


enjoy

[RandomGuy]

They're extrapolating that one small random sampling and taking their best model. I'd be very leery of doing that without getting a much more robust set of random tests.

We definitely need random testing though.

Yes. Yes we do.

[Thread]

Yes. Yes we do.

Does trace amount of good...a negative is a negative for as long it takes that person to walk out of the testing station & back into the community.

[SnakeBoy]

They're extrapolating that one small random sampling and taking their best model. I'd be very leery of doing that without getting a much more robust set of random tests.

We definitely need random testing though.

We need an antibody test as well

[Thread]

This is the way it will be until enough people have had it to provide some level of herd immunity. We (the world) can only do our best to have a controlled burn rate and hopefully save many lives.

Until you lock down it-will-not-stop.

& I ain't talking about a lock down where you can wander about the highways & byways, city streets, beaches, and parks, on & on.

But, we know that. We just will not do it & we ain't even close.

But, why should we be?,,,we've been standing 100k of Regular Flu deaths year after year...we've been standing 100k of traffic deaths year after year & been just right as the post over it. No biggee.

[hater]

Until you lock down it-will-not-stop.

& I ain't talking about a lock down where you can wander about the highways & byways, city streets, beaches, and parks, on & on.

But, we know that. We just will not do it & we ain't even close.

But, why should we be?,,,we've been standing 100k of Regular Flu deaths year after year...we've been standing 100k of traffic deaths year after year & been just right as the post over it. No biggee.

agree

but regular flu cases do not overwhelm our system

this would

big difference

[TSA]

hater

[Thread]

agree

but regular flu cases do not overwhelm our system

this would

big difference

Because we ignored that 100k every year dying like that of Regular Flu. And we're ignoring them now...sure the old man brings 'em up once in a blue moon, but, nothing sustained. & he's only doing it to irritate.

They will be ID'd & accounted for AFTER Corona is tamed.

[midnightpulp]

hater

(not at the grave situation but at hater).

"Made in China."

[boutons_deux]

Trash's CDC tests were also defective. where's the hilarity?

[hater]

Because we ignored that 100k every year dying like that of Regular Flu. And we're ignoring them now...sure the old man brings 'em up once in a blue moon, but, nothing sustained. & he's only doing it to irritate.

They will be ID'd & accounted for AFTER Corona is tamed.

no no

regular flu does not overwhelm our system

this does as an avalanche of sick ppl would flood hospitals

[Fat Brandon Bass]

Dr. Shlomo now says projected US death count will be 6 million and a Covidcaust museum should be built after this blows over

[picnroll]

The project I was on during my masters work was looking at the viability of bacterial spores (not anthrax but similar) after they were airborne for awhile. We were looking to see if the ongoing chemical reactions in the atmosphere made them nonviable and really what we found was that UV was the main driver of this. But this was for airborne aerosols that were always exposed to sunlight if it was available (meaning it wasn't cloudy or night time). This obviously changes in different environments ie indoors or inside of a human body.

Frankly, I would be shocked if UV DIDN'T degrade a a virus. UV is highly energetic which is why it breaks molecular bonds (and why it damages human cells) so it should definitely have a detrimental effect on the virus. But if the virus doesn't spend a lot of time in the air anyway since its not really airborne (the bacterial spores we looked at ARE transmitted in an airborne manner which is why this was important), then I'm not sure how much UV exposure it gets. That part I have absolutely no idea about.

But yeah UV is going to be bad for virus viability.

UV is definitely not recommended for sterilizing N95 masks. UV degrades the electrostatic charge of the mask. In fact it’s recommended to keep those masks away from sunlight. UV also is recommended to not use for skin.

[RandomGuy]

This is why its hard for me to be optimistic when analyzing data for this online:

The COVID tracking project had the figure at 3800. That's a HUGE difference.

There's not a single place over representing data but there is a ton of under representing. We know cases are way under reported. There's a huge lack of hospitalization and negative test information. The death counts are likely pretty good, but they're also prone to severe lag times of up to 1 month so they don't tell you what the current situation is.

Its hard as to say that things are going to turn out better than the current trends say when we know the data is severely underrepresented.

Eyup. too many unknowns in how the data is being collected and reported to really make much of it, other than a rough guide as to overall trends. It is like trying to look at something really large through a pinhole in a wall.

Information always has to be taken in some context, especially in rapidly developing events.

[picnroll]

(not at the grave situation but at hater).

"Made in China."

All part of China’s grand scheme to destroy the west.

[hater]

510,000 infected

my prediction is more than halfway there sadly

of course Im sure millions are infected already but Ill let that go for now

called it

[Winehole23]

Because we ignored that 100k every year dying like that of Regular Flu. And we're ignoring them now...sure the old man brings 'em up once in a blue moon, but, nothing sustained. & he's only doing it to irritate.

They will be ID'd & accounted for AFTER Corona is tamed.

You're exaggerating.

Annual death from the seasonal flu generally fluctuates between 20,000 and 60,000 deaths per year.

Only in pandemics like 1918, 1957 and 1968 has US mortality reached 100,000 souls.

[RandomGuy]

since you nigas seem enthusiastic about this stuff heres a good site to play with parameters galore with coronavirus scenarios

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/


enjoy

(bookmarks)

Very interesting. May have to program that into a spreadsheet.

(edit)

mucked about with the thing considering US population as a whole. probably not really feasible given US geography.

[picnroll]

no no

regular flu does not overwhelm our system

this does as an avalanche of sick ppl would flood hospitals

Something tells me you’re enjoying this too much. You need to read a few stories from the frontline healthcare providers.

[MannyIsGod]

UV is definitely not recommended for sterilizing N95 masks. UV degrades the electrostatic charge of the mask. In fact it’s recommended to keep those masks away from sunlight. UV also is recommended to not use for skin.

Yeah I wasn't talking about using an active UV source for anything just talking about naturally occurring UV and its possible effects on the virus. I know nothing about the masks.

[Thread]

no no

regular flu does not overwhelm our system

this does as an avalanche of sick ppl would flood hospitals

I'd rather have a grand dead than 23 grand dead.