Stimulus & Bailout Watch Thread

[boutons_deux]

“State unemployment agencies have been so swamped with claims that more than $100 billion of benefits owed still haven’t been paid,”

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/rep...ived-for-some/

= 17M weeks @ $600/week

[boutons_deux]

Republican plan to cut enhanced unemployment benefits by $400 would cost 3.4 million jobs: analysis

GOP plans to propose a $1,600 monthly cut to unemployment benefits. Economists warn the move may tank the economy

reducing federal unemployment benefits by $400 would cost the US 3.4 million jobs and shrink the economy by 2.5% over the next year.

The move would reduce Americans' personal income by about $339 billion over the next 12 months,

costing the U.S. about 2.5% in gross domestic product and

resulting in 3.388 million fewer jobs created over that time period

"Let's be clear:

if you lost your job through no fault of your own and

can't go back to work because the Trump administration has mismanaged the crisis,

Republicans want you to take a pay cut of 30 percent or even more," Schumer said.

https://www.salon.com/category/economy-and-innovation

[Winehole23]

[ElNono]

Dems should not bend over on corporate liability immunity, but they will.

The whole GOP 'rescue' plan can be summarized as: let's make unemployed people desperate to pick up any ty job, where they'll likely get infected, and since we're shielding companies from liability, they can just go back home and hope they survive.

Also, let's add a $1200 carrot so we can shame Democrats if they don't want to pass this bill.

[Winehole23]

I don't think people have internalized how bad the initial economic shock was. Gonna be rugged when second and third order effects kick in.

[Trill Clinton]

more toys. fucc the American people

[ElNono]

more toys. fucc the American people

yeah, but all we're going to hear is how Democrats don't want to give the poor a $1200 check.

[Winehole23]

The Fed has been doing this for at least 20 years

[Winehole23]

He left out immunity from lawsuits for employers and the $2 billion to remodel the J. Edgar Hoover Bldg.

[Winehole23]

Looks like the Senate GOP cribbed its corporate immunity law from Andrew Cuomo.

https://sirota.substack.com/p/scoop-...and-pasted-25d

[ElNono]

Looks like the Senate GOP cribbed its corporate immunity law from Andrew Cuomo.

https://sirota.substack.com/p/scoop-...and-pasted-25d

Cuomo good now

[Winehole23]

Looks like GOP fears that UI will reduce employment isn't empirically supported

The report found that workers receiving larger increases in unemployment benefits experienced very similar gains in employment by early May relative to workers with less-generous benefit increases. People with more generously expanded benefits also resumed working at a similar or slightly quicker rate than others did, according to the report.

“The data do not show a relationship between benefit generosity and employment paths after the CARES Act, which could be due to the collapse of labor demand during the COVID-19 crisis,” said Joseph Altonji, the Thomas DeWitt Cuyler Professor of Economics in the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, and a co-author of the report.


Critics argued that the expanded benefits, which exceeded many people’s normal weekly wages, would incentivize businesses to lay off workers to cut costs and disincentivize recipients from returning to work. If the enhanced benefits had these effects, the researchers said, the data should show a significant drop in employment in the week after the CARES Act took effect; it should also show subsequent decreases in relative employment as workers with more generous unemployment benefits put off returning to work. The data did not yield results that support these predictions.

https://news.yale.edu/2020/07/27/yal...uce-employment
study: https://tobin.yale.edu/sites/default...tion_vF(1).pdf

[Winehole23]

Cuomo good now

Cuomo and DeBlasio are horrible.

[ElNono]

Cuomo and DeBlasio are horrible.

I know, I was being facetious.

[boutons_deux]

Cuomo and Deblasio, and "smart" New Yorkers, have gotten NY new cases way down from the MAR/APR peak.

https://www.statnews.com/feature/cor...aign=hp_widget

otoh, red states and their ignorant freedumb fighters ...

eg, Trash-fellator Desantis and FL now have more cases than NY

[boutons_deux]

$600 A Week:

Poverty Remedy Or Job Slayer?

the additional $600 weekly payment has become a financial lifeline for many households, helping pay for rent, food and clothing since the beginning of April.

the payment now also makes up about 15% of the entire nation's wages and is actually fueling a portion of the U.S. economy —

because unemployed people are spending more than they did before the pandemic, while those who have jobs are spending less.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/27/89567...-or-job-slayer

iow, in (and out of) the pandemic, $600/week IS a critical economic stimulus, poverty reducer, raiser of GDP by a few percent.

Repugs' proposed "stimulus" plan is to de-stimulate the economy and produce Ms more job losses and business failures.

Racist/misogynist Repugs/Capitalists just gotta keep Labor oppressed and in eternal, enslaving financial precarity,

and of course, esp blacks and browns and women are the main targets.

[Winehole23]

Making lobbyists eligible for PPP without a cap comes awfully close to Congress putting campaign cash into its own pocket.

However, the legislation’s rules on trade association eligibility were significantly altered just before the bill was formally introduced by Rubio and by Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. The version they introduced would expand PPP eligibility generally to include lobbying groups with up to 299 employees, and the $500,000 loan cap was removed.

The last minute switch means that if the GOP bill passes, lobbying organizations for huge companies could get a giant government subsidy for their work influencing the government.

https://sirota.substack.com/p/gop-bi...h-to-corporate

[ElNono]

Florida man charged in federal court with using coronavirus relief funds to buy himself a brand-new Lamborghini

David T. Hines, a 29-year-old man in Miami, Florida, was charged in federal court with fraudulently obtaining $3.9 million in Paycheck Protection Program loans and then using the money to buy himself a 2020 Lamborghini Huracan, among other things.

Hines was charged with "one count of bank fraud, one count of making false statements to a financial ins ution and one count of engaging in transactions in unlawful proceeds," the US Department of Justice announced on Monday.

A complaint alleges that through applying from different companies, Hines tried to secure about $13.5 million in PPP loans. It accuses Hines of submitting loan applications with misleading and false statements about those companies' payroll expenses.

The aim of the program, part of the federal CARES Act enacted on March 29, is to give emergency financial help to Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through the program, qualifying small businesses can apply for forgivable loans to cover expenses like job retention, payroll costs, mortgage interest, rent, and utilities.

Hines said in his PPP loan applications that he had four businesses with 70 employees and $4 million in monthly expenses, The New York Times reported. But an affidavit said that in reality, his monthly expenses totaled about $200,000.

The Justice Department said the complaint alleges that "within days of receiving the PPP funds," Hines went and bought a 2020 Lamborghini Huracan that cost about $318,000, "registered jointly in his name and the name of one of his companies."

After he received the funds, Hines didn't make the payroll payments he said he would on his loan applications, the complaint alleges. Instead, he apparently went on a "spending spree" involving "luxury jewelry, expensive clothes, visits to resorts in Miami Beach and expenses on dating websites," The Times reported, citing officials.

https://www.businessinsider.com/flor...huracan-2020-7

[boutons_deux]

I bet the next stimulus act will not be done before Congress takes a month summer break.

[Winehole23]

Dude, poverty in the went down measurably since the CARES Act. Who knew giving poor people money alleviates poverty?

If Trump stays the course on CARES and demands $2000 monthly for all the American people, he could win. A heavy bribe might be magnified economically too.

It really weird to me that no one wants to be Santa Claus and shovel money out the door. For a bonus, it's Keynesian doctrine: if the government fails to replace lost aggregate demand, the contraction is steeper and recovery slower.

[boutons_deux]

2nd qtr GDP down 33%

Repugs' "stimulus" proposal is to increase poverty, decrease GDP, increase unemployment by Ms.

[boutons_deux]

If Trump stays the course on CARES and demands $2000 monthly for all the American people, he could win.

he can't win.

Santa Claus comes EVERY DAY for the oligarchy, making out like thieves (they are, money making money bull ) by many $100Bs in 2020, so far.

New UI claims again 1.4M+ this week.

[DMC]

Dems should not bend over on corporate liability immunity, but they will.

The whole GOP 'rescue' plan can be summarized as: let's make unemployed people desperate to pick up any ty job, where they'll likely get infected, and since we're shielding companies from liability, they can just go back home and hope they survive.

Also, let's add a $1200 carrot so we can shame Democrats if they don't want to pass this bill.

What do you suggest, that they remain unemployed and just be wards of the state?

[DMC]

He left out immunity from lawsuits for employers and the $2 billion to remodel the J. Edgar Hoover Bldg.

Didn't see your complaint about the Kennedy Center.

[Winehole23]

Didn't see your complaint about the Kennedy Center.

Can't say I'm surprised they're porking it out in the sausage factory, thanks for adding a detail.