You don't even need to go to IFR...
If we're talking a 70% of the population, that's 227,500,000 - 17,099,429 that have been infected already = 210,400,571 to go. Now, it took almost a year to get to 17.1M infections, which means that it would take ~12 years at the same rate to reach the 210M remaining.
This is why herd immunity, if attainable, was always unrealistic.
You're only counting confirmed cases. I'm estimating 8 times that, so ~135M people. Actually should be 7.1x based on https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance...aa1780/6000389 but I just went with 8x.
You need to estimate IFR in order to guess how many people have been infected. Numbers from that study work out roughly with my guess of .3% ifr.
I didn't say there were. What I was saying is that herd immunity probably doesn't exist with or without a vaccine. The concept is based on a closed system.
Thanks for clarifying what you mean. Many posters construe that in the sense given in the Barrington Declaration, namely, acquisition of herd immunity without vaccination.
My basic premise from February has been that this is the 5th endemic coronavirus, everyone (100%) will get infected eventually. Some have thought I meant the ridiculous idea of the Barrington Declaration at times but I always said a "let her rip" plan was a bad plan. It was equally true that locking down until it goes away was not a realistic idea.
Now that we have a vaccine, hard lockdowns make sense until those who are willing have a chance to get vaccinated. I never believed a vaccine this quick was possible, don't think anyone really did.
The actual estimate in that paper is nowhere near close to 135M...
52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. population from February 27–September 30, 2020
So I don't know where they got that multiplier...
Ag4ee until the vaccine talk. We dont know if any vaccine works. No need to vaccinate unless you are sick or old. Wait until the data comes out for the first millions vaccinated.
Do not vaccinate healthy young ppl.
Lockdowns will continue for the foreseeable future.
Oh and I believe early hard lockdown would have helped. Regional shutdowns as well. See china, australia, new zealand, etc.
At some point I think you have to.Do not vaccinate healthy young ppl.
52 million cases would put the IFR around .5 -.6% which is what the cdc says. My deaths to go count has always been the optimistic best case scenario of .3% IFR.
edit I think I may have started with .1% ifr until that was clearly too low
Last edited by SnakeBoy; 12-15-2020 at 08:00 PM.
Vaccinate those willing to take it, then open up and let the bodies fall where they may.
Agree. 1 year of data wont be ideal but would be something. I also confident mutations and new treatments would make this virus less lethal.
I'm fine with this, tbh... provided that access to the vaccine is good.
Lol, I'm pretty much last in line. Even if I thought I needed it.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-timeline.html
I'm behind prisoners and homeless, lol.
Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States.
When it comes to Texas, we think you’re behind 24.4 million others who are at higher risk in your state.
And in Bexar County, you’re behind 1.7 million others.
Me too. There's always medical tourism though.
But, at least I can observe what happens to people ahead of me.
I mean, I don't mind growing tentacles, tbh
You wont
But you might make Bing your default search engine
Obviously, I don't think any weird like that will happen, but we may discover side affects we don't currently know about.
Damn, hopefully it's not that bad
I'm sure we will. The question is how bad are those.
Mississippi study: mask up
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6950e3.htmWhat is added by this report?
Among children and adolescents aged <18 years in Mississippi, close contact with persons with COVID-19 and gatherings with persons outside the household and lack of consistent mask use in school were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, whereas attending school or child care was not associated with receiving positive SARS-CoV-2 test results.
What are the implications for public health practice?
Close contacts with persons with COVID-19 and gatherings contribute to SARS-CoV-2 infections in children and adolescents. Consistent use of face masks and social distancing continue to be important to prevent COVID-19 spread.
Called it
Even if the world’s scientists are able to create a safe and effective vaccine, coronavirus will probably never disappear and will resurge every year like the flu – the chief scientific adviser to the British government has warned.
Sir Patrick Vallance said politicians and experts should stop “over-promising” what a vaccine could do – saying the “notion of eliminating COVID is not right” and the world will have to simply learn to live with the virus.
“I mean, it is worth reflecting that there’s only one human disease that’s been truly eradicated, and that’s from the highly effective vaccine to smallpox, so it’s a very difficult thing to do,” he told MPs and peers yesterday.
“We can’t be certain, but I think it’s unlikely we will end up with a truly sterilising vaccine, something that completely stops infection, and it’s likely this disease will circulate and be endemic.”
The disease becoming “endemic” means it would never really go away, despite a potentially successful vaccine helping to manage the situation.
Take the seasonal flu for example, we have a vaccine for that which reduces our risk of getting seriously ill from virus.
However, the virus mutates rapidly – sometimes once a year or more – which means protection from previous vaccines do not last for long.
Sir Patrick said this may well become the case with coronavirus.
“Clearly as management becomes better and you get vaccination, that would decrease the chance of infection and severity of disease, and this starts to look more like annual flu than anything else and that may be the direction we end up going,” he said. “Even with a vaccine, this is something we’re going to need to manage.”
Sir Patrick said that while a number of vaccine candidates cause an immune response, only phase three trials will show whether they stop people from being infected.
Lol
Looks like world will be divided into 2 groups. Rich that can travel and afford vaccine. And poor that cannot do and cant have a vaccine.
They cannot seriously implement a vaccine certificate if vaccines are not available to ALL
This reminds me of that german movie. Where rich live great lives in the surface of the planet and poor live and work like underground
Metropolis thats it
Lol you dont need a vaccine. The end
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