Is the DeMar Derozan and Patrick Mills era officially over in San Antonio?

[Dejounte]

Let's look at Derrick White:

*Qualifier is 204 3-point attempts minimum

He's shooting equal to or better than:

Kyle Anderson
Dillon Brooks
Lugentz Dort
Theo Maledon
Coby White
Goran Dragic
Bradley Beal
Kelly Olynyk
Dennis Shroder
+everyone on Murray's list

Derrick also started off 0-50 when he came back from his injury, so that is ing up his 3PT% a lot.

I think it's a myth to say that these three can't shoot, and an even bigger myth to say they won't get better.

[Chinook]

You're just arguing to hear yourself argue,

You're being dishonest to the point to where it's almost creepy. You posted a very misleading series of stats to paint a false picture of how the Spurs operate with DeRozan versus without and then made the conclusion that the Spurs with White controlling the tempo is better than one with DeRozan dominating the ball. I pointed out your stats were being used badly and that a White-led team would have obvious weaknesses that would make it hard to believe they'd be better offense without him. So no, we don't agree on any of the original points.

Then you pivoted to talking about defense, which has nothing to do with either your stats or your conclusion about White running the offense. My response was "okay, but that wasn't what we were talking about." Now you're trying to pull the "you just wanna argue to argue" angle. No, it was a really weird goal-post move on your part. Can the Spurs replace DeRozan and be better overall? Yes. Does removing DeRozan make the Spurs a better team? No, not by itself. That second question is the main premise of both the thread and your post. We don't actually agree on any thing we were talking about. It's fine to not want to talk about it. But don't try to clip me out of context to make it seem like I'm saying something different.

[Chinook]

Why do you assume they won't improve next season?

"Improving" and improving to the point where you can be an All-Star --level centerpiece are vastly different things. It's not actually reasonable to assume that players will become that good. Obviously some do, even some that don't seem to have that potential like Kawhi. It's a huge gap.

[Dejounte]

"Improving" and improving to the point where you can be an All-Star --level centerpiece are vastly different things. It's not actually reasonable to assume that players will become that good. Obviously some do, even some that don't seem to have that potential like Kawhi. It's a huge gap.

Ah, I didn't exactly mean they'll improve to all-star level...right away, anyway. I don't have the view that any are turning into a star for certain, but neither do I have the view that none will. It's my opinion that when you're on the Spurs, your projection isn't quite as linear as it would be had you been on another team. I try my best not to predict the future but look at positive or negative results now and make comparative analysis towards other players for perspective.

With that said, I'm of the belief that you don't necessarily need any of those three to reach all-star level for the team to become more competent than the current team with DeMar. Player development + upgrades at other positions can get you there. How good? I don't know exactly. Like everyone, I hope the Spurs can find a gamechanger with their pick this year.

[Chinook]

Ah, I didn't exactly mean they'll improve to all-star level...right away, anyway. I don't have the view that any are turning into a star for certain, but neither do I have the view that none will. It's my opinion that when you're on the Spurs, your projection isn't quite as linear as it would be had you been on another team. I try my best not to predict the future but look at positive or negative results now and make comparative analysis towards other players for perspective.

With that said, I'm of the belief that you don't necessarily need any of those three to reach all-star level for the team to become more competent than the current team with DeMar. Player development + upgrades at other positions can get you there. How good? I don't know exactly. Like everyone, I hope the Spurs can find a gamechanger with their pick this year.

Again, it's possible that someone improve enough. It's also possible that the Spurs can acquire such a player in such a way that they will basically be swapping DMDR out for a pure upgrade. I've just grown more pessimistic about the "star by committee" approach after seeing it in action this season. Not enough guys step up in a particular game to make up for other teams having stars. They're a defensive four from being able to match up on that end with any team. That would make them able to win any game. But they'd probably then be missing two All-Star caliber scorers to even become a dark-horse contender. Maybe if they got a star in the draft and signed Collins, they'd be able to turn around quickly. But they feel like they could be more of a treadmill team next year in my estimation than they were at the start of this past off-season.

[R. DeMurre]

Can the Spurs replace DeRozan and be better overall? Yes. Does removing DeRozan make the Spurs a better team? No, not by itself.

Again, this is just another pedantic argument. You make it sound as if I (and others) are advocating getting rid of DeRozan and then trotting out 4 players next season to do battle against opposing teams with 5 players on the floor. Yes, obviously, the player that in theory replaces DDR plays some defense and shoots threes, and knows how to dribble a basketball, and is not in a wheelchair, and does not have a seeing eye dog, and doesn't have bullet holes in his forehead, and isn't in an Iron Lung. Thanks, Capt Obvious.

And I didn't "pivot" to defense... defense is always part of the equation. Just because it wasn't directly mentioned in the immediate discussion before doesn't mean it's somehow horribly incongruous and inappropriate to bring it up in an analysis of a player's overall value.

[The Truth #6]

Again, it's possible that someone improve enough. It's also possible that the Spurs can acquire such a player in such a way that they will basically be swapping DMDR out for a pure upgrade. I've just grown more pessimistic about the "star by committee" approach after seeing it in action this season. Not enough guys step up in a particular game to make up for other teams having stars. They're a defensive four from being able to match up on that end with any team. That would make them able to win any game. But they'd probably then be missing two All-Star caliber scorers to even become a dark-horse contender. Maybe if they got a star in the draft and signed Collins, they'd be able to turn around quickly. But they feel like they could be more of a treadmill team next year in my estimation than they were at the start of this past off-season.

Overall, I see many of your points. But I disagree with your assessment of “star by committee”. We have a star. DDR. Unfortunately, he doesn’t contribute to winning basketball overall. The Phoenix game was perhaps the only game all year of “star by committee” (assuming I understand the term correctly), so it’s difficult to be tired of it when we’ve never seen it.

Was the Phoenix game without 3 of our established players a Bubble-esque mirage? Probably. But the young players had good chemistry. Unsustainable outside shooting will do that, but I want to see more of this lineup. Luka didn’t even do anything. Curious to see what more time will do with this latest rotation.

But honestly, the person that I felt like wasn’t really missed that much was actually Yak. Dieng and Eubanks were serviceable and offered a nice complement to each other.

[DAF86]

It is a damn travesty they didn't turn DeRozan into future assets of some kind. Shame on PATFO and the damn Spurs fans with stockholm syndrome that want to retain the guy.

[R. DeMurre]

Shame on PATFO and the damn Spurs fans with stockholm syndrome that want to retain the guy.

[tim_duncan_fan]

For the future, the preference is for the Spurs to not win this season anyway, so arguments that Derozan should play because some other guys can't carry is moot.

Besides that, the other reason not to play Derozan and Patty is the game is more watchable without them. At this point, seeing the young guys play the vast majority of the minutes while taking the vast majority of the shots and seeing something that looks like solid basketball are all I care about.

[rankingtear]

That's the way I feel. I'm tired of Defrozen iso plays and Mills off of the screen bricking at the end of games.

Unfortunately those have the best chance of scoring than any other players action at 1.22 ppp and 1.19 ppp.

[Chinook]

And I didn't "pivot" to defense...

Yes you did. Your point was exclusively about offense. My response was exclusively about offense. THEN you were like, "But his defense..." The Spurs will likely be a worse offensive team if they don't find an offensive star to fit into their lineup (don't give me this "four on five" bull ). That can be true while also believing that the Spurs can be better without him. Me thinking it's possible isn't the same thing as me thinking it's likely -- which is your stance. I think unless the Spurs acquire a star, they are looking at the lottery for a while. So we don't agree that they'll be better, and we don't agree that the Spurs should be trying for a White-led offense.

As I've said repeatedly in this thread, we don't agree on what we've been talking about. That's fine, but constantly acting like we do and rolling your eyes doesn't actually make your point stronger.

[Dejounte]

Unfortunately those have the best chance of scoring than any other players action at 1.22 ppp and 1.19 ppp.

Part of me wonders how much these stats are being distorted by Patty's inhumane start at the beginning of the season. No one with a pair of eyes can truly say Patty's been effective at scoring for months now. He gets hot every one of out 4-5 games now. We all know DeMar can score, but at the expense of so many other things (including freezing out other players, which reduces their ppp) - which is mostly everyone's point.

[Dejounte]

Here's how dishonest sharing those stats look:

PJ Dozier, Monte Morris, Will Barton all have a higher PPP than Jamal Murray on Denver. I guess they have the best chance of scoring over Jamal.

Robert Covington, Harry Giles have a higher PPP than both McCollum and Covington.

Payton Pritchard, Jeff Teague, Marcus Smart, Tristan Thomson all have a much higher PPP than both Tatum and Brown. I guess Tatum and Brown are not very good scorers.

Cameron Payne has a 1.04 PPP to Devin Booker's 0.84. I guess he's a star in the making.

Markeiff and Montrezl both have a higher PPP than LeBron. Go retire already, LeBron.

There's more, but I'll stop here...

[tbdog]

Part of me wonders how much these stats are being distorted by Patty's inhumane start at the beginning of the season. No one with a pair of eyes can truly say Patty's been effective at scoring for months now. He gets hot every one of out 4-5 games now. We all know DeMar can score, but at the expense of so many other things (including freezing out other players, which reduces their ppp) - which is mostly everyone's point.

I disagree that DDR freezes out other players on offense. I just don't agree at all with that. I am with you on Patty. He had a great start and we were winning thanks to some of his help. Our bench blows atm and Mills is shooting below 40% since the allstar break.

[rankingtear]

Part of me wonders how much these stats are being distorted by Patty's inhumane start at the beginning of the season. No one with a pair of eyes can truly say Patty's been effective at scoring for months now. He gets hot every one of out 4-5 games now. We all know DeMar can score, but at the expense of so many other things (including freezing out other players, which reduces their ppp) - which is mostly everyone's point.

I don't know how Demar's iso reduces the efficiency of other players.

[rankingtear]

Here's how dishonest sharing those stats look:

PJ Dozier, Monte Morris, Will Barton all have a higher PPP than Jamal Murray on Denver. I guess they have the best chance of scoring over Jamal.

Robert Covington, Harry Giles have a higher PPP than both McCollum and Covington.

Payton Pritchard, Jeff Teague, Marcus Smart, Tristan Thomson all have a much higher PPP than both Tatum and Brown. I guess Tatum and Brown are not very good scorers.

Cameron Payne has a 1.04 PPP to Devin Booker's 0.84. I guess he's a star in the making.

Markeiff and Montrezl both have a higher PPP than LeBron. Go retire already, LeBron.

There's more, but I'll stop here...

Lol , the context is end of games shots Demar iso, and Patty spot ups. Demar on iso playtype and Patty on spotups. I know PPP depends on playtypes so a spot up shooter would naturally have higher PPP than an isolation or pick and roll scorer.

[R. DeMurre]

Yes you did. Your point was exclusively about offense. My response was exclusively about offense. THEN you were like, "But his defense..." The Spurs will likely be a worse offensive team if they don't find an offensive star to fit into their lineup (don't give me this "four on five" bull ). That can be true while also believing that the Spurs can be better without him. Me thinking it's possible isn't the same thing as me thinking it's likely -- which is your stance. I think unless the Spurs acquire a star, they are looking at the lottery for a while. So we don't agree that they'll be better, and we don't agree that the Spurs should be trying for a White-led offense.

.

Wrong again. I mentioned usage rate and minutes played, and minutes played by definition are intimately related to defense, as roughly 50% of minutes played are spent on the defensive side of the floor. Obviously, if a guy has a sky high usage rate and only plays 3 minutes, it won't have a huge effect on the game. It was never exclusively about offense, but then you tried to pretend that a casual post about usage rate and a comparison between two games was a doctoral thesis on statistics and was somehow missing chapters of explanation. In a casual discussion with a person who isn't a pedantic contrarian, it shouldn't need to be said that the player leading the team in usage rate and minutes played also necessarily is playing lots of defense, but with you that becomes the aha, gotcha! moment that somehow proves the previous discussion has a giant hole in it.

[Dejounte]

I don't know how Demar's iso reduces the efficiency of other players.

For one, there's been many instances where DeMar hands it off with 10 seconds left on the clock after failing to break down his man. This can lead the other Spurs player scrambling.

Lol , the context is end of games shots Demar iso, and Patty spot ups. Demar on iso playtype and Patty on spotups. I know PPP depends on playtypes so a spot up shooter would naturally have higher PPP than an isolation or pick and roll scorer.

Patty's PPP is typical for someone with his frequency. If you look at players with around the same PPP, they all hover around the same 20-30% frequency. The higher this goes, the lower PPP becomes-- unless you're the select few who are elite at it. Lonnie & White are not far off from Patty, and they both have a higher frequency so their PPP is quite typical for spot up shooters.

[Dex]

Is the season over already?

Then...probably not.

[rankingtear]

For one, there's been many instances where DeMar hands it off with 10 seconds left on the clock after failing to break down his man. This can lead the other Spurs player scrambling.

Well that what isolation is, someone has to do it or else we would have a genous offense. Not like we run a lot of isolations 20th in the league and we are already league leader in pick and roll possesions.

And one of the reasons i think iso to end the game is common is that teams usually go small switch defense on closing lineups and the best option is iso or postups.

Patty's PPP is typical for someone with his frequency. If you look at players with around the same PPP, they all hover around the same 20-30% frequency. The higher this goes, the lower PPP becomes-- unless you're the select few who are elite at it. Lonnie & White are not far off from Patty, and they both have a higher frequency so their PPP is quite typical for spot up shooters.

I don't know how Patty PPP on spot up is typical for his frequency you got to compare players with similar frequency. But off screen patty is at 93 percentile at 1.2 possesions per game which is usually the shots he gets on late clock situations.

[longhorn]

It is a damn travesty they didn't turn DeRozan into future assets of some kind. Shame on PATFO and the damn Spurs fans with stockholm syndrome that want to retain the guy.

Brian Wright hasn't made a move yet that shows much competency managing assets with a forward-thinking view and navigating the trade market.

Any idiot in the world could have looked at our roster this past offseason and known that we aren't going to be re-signing all four of LMA, DeMar, Rudy, and Patty. A good GM figures out which guy(s) aren't in their future plans ahead of time and then moves them to a contender for future assets.

Not to mention the absolute show of giving Bertans away for literally nothing--who, while not a perfect player, had a great year offering the one thing this team sorely needs (3pt shooting) and then got an enormous contract from the team we gave him to for free. All to be able to sign DeMarre Carroll, who was then bought out. Great stuff tbh.

[SAGirl]

Again, it's possible that someone improve enough. It's also possible that the Spurs can acquire such a player in such a way that they will basically be swapping DMDR out for a pure upgrade. I've just grown more pessimistic about the "star by committee" approach after seeing it in action this season. Not enough guys step up in a particular game to make up for other teams having stars. They're a defensive four from being able to match up on that end with any team. That would make them able to win any game. But they'd probably then be missing two All-Star caliber scorers to even become a dark-horse contender. Maybe if they got a star in the draft and signed Collins, they'd be able to turn around quickly. But they feel like they could be more of a treadmill team next year in my estimation than they were at the start of this past off-season.

I am curious about the last sentence Chinook. Why is your opinion worse than it was this past off-season? Is it LMA falling off a cliff? It doesn’t seem that they have one guy to build around, and in their minds it would seem that Dejounte is their favorite by work ethic, leader personality and the hard work he must undoubtedly put in the gym to improve himself from a vary thin, springy athlete without a shot and with a high dribble.

But they obviously need talent. This is what I think your point is. They have been a treadmill team since Kawhi left and will only improve through the draft. Being a small market team I don’t see it happening any other way. They do have a good collection of young players that could rise if that one star fell to them somehow, but alas that is an unknown factor.

Edit: but to the original point, it can’t be “officially” over if it isn’t over. Hypothetically speaking I do see Demar leaving of his own decision as poster Helicopter mentioned. Patty should move on at this point, but he’s so ingrained in the team’s culture that it’s even difficult to say he’ll sign elsewhere while Pop is still coach...

[jjspur]

Lets just say that if DDR leaves, the spurs have 27 million dollars to replace him with. The spurs might pay Markannen about 18 million per season (which isn't all that bad) so that leaves 9 million to sign an up and coming guard (Gary Trent Jr. or Devonte Graham possibly). all from DDR's current salary. You could sign them as backups while promoting one of our current guards to start. Then there is Rudy's and Mills salaries more found money. Both should have reduced salaries if they are even on the team. Lyles, he's pretty much already gone so count his salary as well, hasta la vista Trey.
I know a few spurs are getting sizeable raises and we all know San Antonio isn't exactly a top free agent destination, so we should make the best of the situation by signing other teams free agents that show some decent skill to reasonable salaries and can help the spurs back into contention while working within our newly acquired cap space. The team will look quite a bit different next year not to mention younger if they do things right. We have a decent core but it will really help if we get some talent that isn't overpaid.

[exstatic]

Truth bomb..