The calculus seems clear. Russians can sustain the losses, even at the rate they are losing men/materiel. UKR cannot.
One unknown variable is how much the average Russian soldier is willing to die for this. Given enough losses, I can see their units easily disintegrating the first chance they get.
Seems like a high likelihood this will devolve into an insurgency, once the UKR army has lost enough trained troops.
That said, basic infantry training doesn't take long. UKR can supplement units with new troops.
How long does it take to train a civvie to the level of training of the average RUS soldier in UKR? Weeks maybe.
At some point, RUS will be faced with a choice: Withdraw in utter defeat or escalate. Escalation means what you think it does.
Victims of Russian warcrimes, and two more victims that Thread wanted dead, an elderly couple. Thread got his wish.
Warning: Yeah, it shows the results.
-------------------------------------------------------------[bull Russian propaganda point #1 omitted, because Putin, that's why]
Cheers
And you still believe US governments lies that russia will invade anyday now
Lemming...
I stand by my call. Russia wont invade ukraine anytime soon. Their invasion is not imminent as re US claims.
...
CheersIf you check Putins speech he clearly says all this has been planned months in advance. They are just executing the plan now.
[bull russian propaganda talking point omitted, because Putin, that's why-RG]
When how and where is all up to Russia. My guess is this will go slowly and methodically. Like a Boa constrictor.
[insert current Russian propaganda talking point #1 here]
and
[insert Russian propaganda talking point #2 here]
You guys are brainwashed for not believing this stuff.
negotiation is a third option. if Russia can get a neutrality deal and a buffer zone in eastern Ukraine, that would be a tangible, face-saving something for the siloviki. for Zelenskiy, such a deal would save a lot of lives.
I am of the thinking now that Putin would rather nuke Ukraine verses losing at this point. He's already alright with killing women and children so
All good reads.
Stumbled across this:
Russian military’s corruption quagmire
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russian forces battle the consequences of systemic sleaze.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russ...tion-quagmire/
Brings into stark focus the consequences of crony capitalism. It indicates to me the failure of Republican voters to hold their autocrats accountable for exhibiting such is the acid eating away at the pillars of democracy.
The intel people who war game this have a tactical nuke used on a secondary city as a very common result.
He seems to be under the impression that he is the Premier of the USSR, and is putting things in the works for mobilization. Unfortunately, the demographic ship as sailed on the days of Russia being able to swarm the field with willing bodies.
This is not The Great Patriotic War, and every abused, demoralized conscript will know it.
All signs point to this getting very bad.
Ukraine in One Belt one road?
Xi
I don't see the neutrality deal as being acceptable to Ukrainians at this point. That ship has also sailed. They will never forget or forgive this.
So when Russia escalates even more out of desperation, and that results in something like a tactical nuke being used, what then?
Will you still be parroting Russian propaganda?
How many six year old girls dying of dehydration and families killed by indiscriminate artillery s ing are you willing to look the other way for?
I totally agree. But this is going to sound pretty bad, but as of right now Zelensky is making Putin look pretty stupid especially after yesterday him recording himself from his office. At this point I think we are past the "negotiation" point with Putin. I think it's either Zelensky getting assassinated and Putin taking credit for it, or a nuclear option. I hate to say it but I really think that's where we are now.
Zelensky dying is more likely, but he will be replaced by someone else who will continue the fight. Putin leaves in utter defeat, or he escalates.
Ukraine MAY give up the donbas region, so it can get time to rebuild its army, with massive assistance from NATO.
if the US and Europe are unwilling to fight for Ukraine and Ukraine is unwilling to cut a deal with Russia now, the likely outcome for Ukraine is to settle for a similar deal in a few months/years after tens/hundreds of thousands people die, isn't it?
I'd like to see Ukraine win as much as anyone, but have difficulty seeing how.
...sure it ain't 4 women and 6 children jammed in a clown car in Afghanistan makin' like door nails after MF Biden massacred 'em, but it's akin, Rarg.
The most likely outcome is hundreds of thousands of casualties. That will be very hard for Putin to hide, and will likely force him to negotiate.
Eventually it will sink in to him that his army is incapable of winning his stated goals, even with his cronies trying to hide the truth from him. Reality has a way of sneaking in around barricades.
Russia is losing the PR war. The absence of russian bot nets on twitter is palpable.
They might even get the Republican party to finally abandon Putin.
Reek (trump) will still be praising him though. What does putin have on reek? One has to wonder. It is a bad time for someone whose business model seems predicated on laundering money for Russians and who will have to refinance his debt after his accounting firm says his financial statements are worthless.
...me neither, tights.
And above:::there'd be no fight. "US and Europe" would attack...
Putin:::"I will count to three, there will not be a 4. Give me the codes."
And that'd be it I am positive. And you know who else is positive, Winester? Ya damn right; Biden. He's already come to beggin' the madman in Saudi Arabia and the one in Ven. for oil, he does not want to end up beggin' Putin for our lives.
Now,
Let us proceed..
...you don't have to tell Biden about that Reality as he makes his world tour of begging murderous despots for that black gold after he swore up and down he'd swing 'em from a yard arm if he ever got his ass scratchers on 'em.
Zelensky might be overplaying his hand at this point. He's going to lose territory almost not matter what so that is one thing he might juts have to concede.
Putin lost that Day 1 when State run media CNN climbed up all over him. Day 2 when State run media FOX got the message from State he lost it again. That's why he never sought to compete from the aforementioned Day 1.
See, RG, State run media CNN swore on the Good Book that they would never again lose the PR war, EVER, after they lost the PR war and this happened as the result...
Trump President.
Not Clinton.
ADDENDUM
What has helped Putin is the fact Z/Ukr open face lie constantly. It appalls State run media CNN, but they have to hold their tongue, they cannot cast Z/Ukr down for it, so, they do the boiler plate..."CNN cannot verify that information at this time." with an ever increasing withered look on their countenance. Sometimes they won't look directly into the camera when they disavow and cover for the Z/Ukr lie.
Putin lies. And of course America lies thru State run media CNN. All vestiges of honesty and decency have been left at the door for this one (war). It's a lie fest.
Last edited by Thread; 03-08-2022 at 10:44 AM.
There are currently 3 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 3 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote