Run for Play-In

[K...]

Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, Doncic, Tatum, Steph... quite a few actually.

so is that one franchise guy every 3 years? so the spurs have to hard tank 3 years to get one (assuming they actually can talent spot better than most teams) vs soft tanking for 10 yrs?

[Ariel]

It's WAY easier to find examples of contenders that didn't get where they are by tanking than finding one that did. Assuming the Spurs are going to draft their next franchise player seems extremely antiquated. The Spurs have to sell themselves to free agents and sell their players/prospects to potential trade partners. Being bad doesn't do that. Having guys like Murray and Johnson stepping up, seeing ballast like Richardson or prospects like Primo playing important roles does. People keep trying to say the Spurs are dumb for not tanking in order to use their scouting expertise to draft a star. They don't consider that the Spurs might not be tanking BECAUSE their vaunted scouts told them it wasn't worth it.

Top 10 teams in each conference that got their best players through the draft:
Phoenix: Ayton, Booker, Bridges
Memphis: Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane
Golden State: Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kumminga
Dallas: Doncic
Utah: Donovan Mitc , Gobert
Denver: Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr
Minnesota: KAT, Edwards
Pelicans: Zion Williamson
Philadelphia: Embiid, Maxey, Thybulle
Boston: Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown
Milwaukee: Antetokoumpo
Toronto: Scottie Barnes, Siakam, Van Vleet
Cleveland: Mobley, Garland
Charlotte: Lamelo Ball
Atlanta: Trae Young

Pretty mucho all of them got their top player through a high pick, with a few notable exceptions that got it lower (Giannis & Jokic)

Top teams that didn't get their best players through the draft:
Lakers & Clippers (LA)
Nets (NY)
Miami

Notice a pattern? Unless you're LA, NY or Miami, you get your franchise players through the draft (almost invariably through a high pick)

[talkspurs]

Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, Doncic, Tatum, Steph... quite a few actually.

I dont know why people keep putting Luka in this list. he is not a franchise player. He may become one but he is not currently. Tatum is kind of on the cusp in my opinion. There are only a couple franchise players in the league.

[Chinook]

Top 10 teams in each conference that got their best players through the draft:
Phoenix: Ayton, Booker, Bridges
Memphis: Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane
Golden State: Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kumminga
Dallas: Doncic
Utah: Donovan Mitc , Gobert
Denver: Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr
Minnesota: KAT, Edwards
Pelicans: Zion Williamson
Philadelphia: Embiid, Maxey, Thybulle
Boston: Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown
Milwaukee: Antetokoumpo
Toronto: Scottie Barnes, Siakam, Van Vleet
Cleveland: Mobley, Garland
Charlotte: Lamelo Ball
Atlanta: Trae Young

Pretty mucho all of them got their top player through a high pick, with a few notable exceptions that got it lower (Giannis & Jokic)

Top teams that didn't get their best players through the draft:
Lakers & Clippers (LA)
Nets (NY)
Miami

Notice a pattern? Unless you're LA, NY or Miami, you get your franchise players through the draft (almost invariably through a high pick)

You're trying to answer a different question as a reply to me. The Spurs are still going to draft players this year. They didn't trade away all their picks to make a run at the 10th seed. So let's try to use your list to actually answer the question


Phoenix: Ayton,
Minnesota: KAT, Edwards
Pelicans: Zion Williamson
Philadelphia: Embiid, Maxey, Thybulle
Cleveland: Mobley, Garland
Charlotte: Lamelo Ball
Atlanta: Trae Young


I was relatively generous and listed guys like Mobley, Young and Zion even though their teams didn't tank (they were bad teams that had lottery luck). You have a lot of fringe playoffs teams left on that list, which again is an answer to a question I didn't ask. What makes it worse is that you brought that list up to show a "pattern" of franchise players being drafted while purposefully ignoring the various trades the teams made to acquire players on that list as well as their best players that you left off. It's inexcusable to pretend like Philly's top three players include Maxey and Thybulle rather than Harris and Harden. Pretending like Paul isn't the actual franchise for Phoenix is worse. NOP isn't even in the play-in conversation because of Zion. There's no pattern to observe to support a tanking situation. Almost every contender had some draft luck, but they needed to put themselves in a position to capitalize on the free-agent or trade market either to acquire their best player or to compliment them.

No one was debating whether it's important for the Spurs to draft and develop. The question was whether them losing games in an attempt to gain better lottery odds is a strong path to success. The list of contenders for even compe ors as you tried to pass off doesn't suggest that it is. The Wolves and Cavs are the two best examples of teams who are almost entirely homegrown (Russell is a meh player though he is still a starter for them), and neither is guaranteed a playoff spot even after all of these years. With the sheer number of not just lottery picks but first-overall picks those franchises have had, it's insane to try to replicate their path, even if it didn't potentially lead to mediocrity like it might well end up for one or both.

[duncan2150]

I think by "deep draft" they mean not top heavy. It's just a bull term they use to mean there aren't any sure things.

I think deep it's just the number of good prospects, after that it could be good at the top of the draft or so-so or bad .... Btw it's always difficult to evaluate a draft, it's a year process.
Imo this draft is deep, with a lot of good prospects who can be starters in this league but the top is not so heavy.

[mo7888]

Top 10 teams in each conference that got their best players through the draft:
Phoenix: Ayton, Booker, Bridges
Memphis: Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane
Golden State: Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kumminga
Dallas: Doncic
Utah: Donovan Mitc , Gobert
Denver: Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr
Minnesota: KAT, Edwards
Pelicans: Zion Williamson
Philadelphia: Embiid, Maxey, Thybulle
Boston: Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown
Milwaukee: Antetokoumpo
Toronto: Scottie Barnes, Siakam, Van Vleet
Cleveland: Mobley, Garland
Charlotte: Lamelo Ball
Atlanta: Trae Young

Pretty mucho all of them got their top player through a high pick, with a few notable exceptions that got it lower (Giannis & Jokic)

Top teams that didn't get their best players through the draft:
Lakers & Clippers (LA)
Nets (NY)
Miami

Notice a pattern? Unless you're LA, NY or Miami, you get your franchise players through the draft (almost invariably through a high pick)

You both make some valid points there....but the crux of the whole debate comes down to Chinook's last sentence, "They don't consider that the Spurs might not be tanking BECAUSE their vaunted scouts told them it wasn't worth it."... none of us really know the answer because we aren't in that war room. If the Spurs scouts don't see value at the top of the draft (and in this case the top 8 is the definition of the top of the draft) then trying to make the play-in is the smart move.... if they do see value at the top of the draft then we should be giving our D league guys more burn....

There's one other option or caveat if you will, that could be in play... they may feel the need to improve the roster through trades and FA instead of the draft because they may want to put a high level player or two alongside DJ for next year and try to compete for a championship. If that's the case then there's nobody in the draft that will make that kind of immediate impact. If they're looking to package our cap space, young guys, and picks to go after a couple upper tier players that compliment DJ then 'tanking' would hurt that play....

Personally, I hope thats what we're doing because competing sooner rather than a slower rebuild is more interesting to me....in fact, if we were going to use the picks on a slow rebuild I'd rather cash in on DJ's value this summer...

[Arcadian]

Hey, both could happen!

Or, more likely, neither could happen.

The Spurs are in the worst place for a franchise to be, in contention with the worst teams trying to make the playoffs, on the outside looking in, but not quite bad enough to get a serious lottery pick.

[BatManu20]

Or, more likely, neither could happen.

The Spurs are in the worst place for a franchise to be, in contention with the worst teams trying to make the playoffs, on the outside looking in, but not quite bad enough to get a serious lottery pick.

NBA Purgatory. The absolute worst position to be in. And we’re here for the 3rd year in a row.

[RC_Drunkford]

NBA Purgatory. The absolute worst position to be in. And we’re here for the 3rd year in a row.

but at least Popovich got his record and the players are over themselves

[TD 21]

Look at the apologists go. These brainwashed fools would spin anything.

There is no upside to what they're doing, it's just the organization in full-on schtick mode. No one else in their position is doing this, but somehow they're all idiots. Give your head a shake.

I don't know what's dumber: The notion that tanking post All-Star break in one season is somehow going to entrench them in a losing culture (because it's not like they've sucked for 3 years now or been mediocre the 2 previous to that).

Or that these still meaningless games are somehow going to pay dividends in the future (as if some established core is in place).

[Mr. Body]

Look at the apologists go. These brainwashed fools would spin anything.

There is no upside to what they're doing, it's just the organization in full-on schtick mode. No one else in their position is doing this, but somehow they're all idiots. Give your head a shake.

I don't know what's dumber: The notion that tanking post All-Star break in one season is somehow going to entrench them in a losing culture (because it's not like they've sucked for 3 years now or been mediocre the 2 previous to that).

Or that these still meaningless games are somehow going to pay dividends in the future (as if some established core is in place).

I'm not surprised to see people genuinely not understand basketball.

[KingKev]

Look at the apologists go. These brainwashed fools would spin anything.

There is no upside to what they're doing, it's just the organization in full-on schtick mode. No one else in their position is doing this, but somehow they're all idiots. Give your head a shake.

I don't know what's dumber: The notion that tanking post All-Star break in one season is somehow going to entrench them in a losing culture (because it's not like they've sucked for 3 years now or been mediocre the 2 previous to that).

Or that these still meaningless games are somehow going to pay dividends in the future (as if some established core is in place).

Somebody get this guy a zanny

[Ariel]

You're trying to answer a different question as a reply to me.

You claimed that "Assuming the Spurs are going to draft their next franchise player seems extremely antiquated", and I just proved your claim wrong by listing pretty much every franchise in contention for a playoff spot that has gone through that route. In fact I was pretty generous, considering that I didn't even include franchise caliber players that were gotten thanks to draft acquired assets (Harden for Simmons, Paul George for Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Anthony Davis for Ingram, Lonzo & Hart, and so on and so forth), or mention that even FA signings of relevance usually come through S&T, which means you have to give up assets to get them. So in essence, the draft is at the core of every process of setting up a successful team, with no exceptions, and it takes no mathematician to realize that it's usuarlly better not to let 10 teams pick ahead of you. If you try to delude yourself into meaningless tanking semanthics, be my guest.

[Mr. Body]

All this talk about drafting franchise players doesn't matter if the 2022 draft has no franchise players.

[Chomag]

Why....no point and it would be a negative effect for the future. I get it but Hopefully they can put their pride aside and realize it would be a big mistake and more beneficial for the team not to.

[baseline bum]

It's WAY easier to find examples of contenders that didn't get where they are by tanking than finding one that did. Assuming the Spurs are going to draft their next franchise player seems extremely antiquated. The Spurs have to sell themselves to free agents and sell their players/prospects to potential trade partners. Being bad doesn't do that. Having guys like Murray and Johnson stepping up, seeing ballast like Richardson or prospects like Primo playing important roles does. People keep trying to say the Spurs are dumb for not tanking in order to use their scouting expertise to draft a star. They don't consider that the Spurs might not be tanking BECAUSE their vaunted scouts told them it wasn't worth it.

You think they're going to sign a franchise guy when they couldn't even do that when they were winning les? Or trade for one when they're not a destination stars force their way too? That's lunacy, the draft is the only way they're getting a franchise player.

[KingKev]

All this talk about drafting franchise players doesn't matter if the 2022 draft has no franchise players.

The best of the best talent scouts can’t get it right so the 2022 draft not having franchise players is a foolish thing to say. 2021 draft is already looking wayyyy better than most expected.

We have multiple swings at drafting young talent. We could draft 1 and 2 in 2022 and probably still be a bottom 10 team.

[KingKev]

You think they're going to sign a franchise guy when they couldn't even do that when they were winning les? Or trade for one when they're not a destination stars force their way too? That's lunacy, the draft is the only way they're getting a franchise player.

and multiple swings at the draft are the way to go.

[MultiTroll]

Play In People:
What did the last 3 years do for the Spurs?

[MultiTroll]

Character development.

or is that Arrested Development?

[TD 21]

Then enlighten us, apologists. If getting the best possible odds at the best projected talent supposedly isn't the way to go, then what is and why does virtually every other team in the Spurs position do so?

[PhantomDashCam]

Consider this - In the past 14 months, the Spurs have moved on from: DDR, LMA, Patty Mills, Rudy Gay, Derrick White, Drew Eubanks, Bryn Forbes (all arguably key rotation players, at least as far as the Spurs FO were concerned) and shipped out or waived Thad Young, Satoransky, Hermangomez and Dragic.

They will soon make decisions on: Lonnie Walker, Romeo Langford, Richardson (and probably Poeltl, based on value and desirability), to whether they will still be with the team next year...

DJ has solidified himself as an all-star talent, KJ continues to show that his shooting isn't a fluke, and Primo is getting key rotation minutes as a rookie for a team that rarely makes that kind of commitment...

This season has been an overwhelming success...and will continue to be whether they make or miss the play-in/playoffs.

This team may have built a reputation as a stubborn, antiquated, loyalty driven franchise (and deservedly so considering their past successes), but this season isn't one of them.

The Spurs seem to be cognizant of where they are, (finally), how their players are projecting, what talent is available come draft and likely, the flattened structure after pick 4. They couldn't care less what the mocks say.
They have their draft board.

If they want to make a run for the play-in, I say go for it.

[Chinook]

You think they're going to sign a franchise guy when they couldn't even do that when they were winning les? Or trade for one when they're not a destination stars force their way too? That's lunacy, the draft is the only way they're getting a franchise player.

No. Some of you need to come out of 2004 already. The Spurs have been very successful in free agency when they've actually had the means and will. ing about Aldridge doesn't negate the fact that the Spurs got the best player on the market on their first try. The very next year, they turned around and got another of the best players on the market in Gasol. Then, even after Paul backed out of what honestly was tampering by the Spurs to get traded to Houston, the Spurs still got one of the best players on the market to take the MLE. No one's confusing SA with South Beach, but their money is still good in the NBA. Like with Aldridge, stars want a number of things that aren't just big markets. Are the Spurs likely to sign a top-10 player outright? No. But even so, they are more likely to sign one than to draft one.

As far as trades go, players are traded outside of top markets all the time, whether that be the Paul trade, the George trade, two of the three Butler trades or so forth. You assume those players would leave the Spurs but somehow think that SA drafting a player means they wouldn't also leave. We already know that doesn't stop them. So if the idea is to be horrible, draft a top player and then somehow win a le before that player has the leverage to ask out, everything runs aground almost immediately. Any disadvantages the Spurs have in terms of location are only magnified if they're also a loser tank team. A Spurs that does what you want is FAR more likely to end up maxing a guy like Fox in an effort to not lose talent than they are to cobbling together than OKC-like string of draft homeruns. A Spurs that tries to lose their way to winning is going to end up going to Vegas after years of "rebuild" followed by spurts of "trying to win" that get aborted when the young players who've never seen NBA winning end up not being able to carry anything. The number of failed tanks is much larger than the number of successful attempts.

[Chinook]

Then enlighten us, apologists. If getting the best possible odds at the best projected talent supposedly isn't the way to go, then what is and why does virtually every other team in the Spurs position do so?

Pretty sure the end of your sentence is patently false, so maybe don't load the question if you want an answer.

Also pretty sure you know what I would say to the first half of your question already and weren't specifically asking me.

[SPURt]

Consider this - In the past 14 months, the Spurs have moved on from: DDR, LMA, Patty Mills, Rudy Gay, Derrick White, Drew Eubanks, Bryn Forbes (all arguably key rotation players, at least as far as the Spurs FO were concerned) and shipped out or waived Thad Young, Satoransky, Hermangomez and Dragic.

They will soon make decisions on: Lonnie Walker, Romeo Langford, Richardson (and probably Poeltl, based on value and desirability), to whether they will still be with the team next year...

DJ has solidified himself as an all-star talent, KJ continues to show that his shooting isn't a fluke, and Primo is getting key rotation minutes as a rookie for a team that rarely makes that kind of commitment...

This season has been an overwhelming success...and will continue to be whether they make or miss the play-in/playoffs.

This team may have built a reputation as a stubborn, antiquated, loyalty driven franchise (and deservedly so considering their past successes), but this season isn't one of them.

The Spurs seem to be cognizant of where they are, (finally), how their players are projecting, what talent is available come draft and likely, the flattened structure after pick 4. They couldn't care less what the mocks say.
They have their draft board.

If they want to make a run for the play-in, I say go for it.

My glass is half full, same as yours. The Spurs have been making good decisions, which also gave them three first round picks this year. They have a lot of flexibility to trade up in the draft. Whether the Spurs draft 8 or 12, I think they have a good idea of who they want most. That player likely isn’t getting picked in the same place as any mock or other franchise is projecting. I’m all for these young Spurs getting some playoff experience too.

What doesn’t look good is this years free agents. I don’t see anyone that makes sense for this Spurs team.