Big Board 1.0: First Look at Who the San Antonio Spurs Will Target in the Lottery

[mo7888]

I think we only get 7 if all four top 4 spots are vacated.

I believe this is correct

[Ariel]

This means the Spurs get the #32 pick (Rockets get #33).

Not necessarily. If come lottery day the Spurs jump into top 4 and Houston doesn't (40% chance), then we get the worst 2nd rounder (#33)

The Spurs get #7 if all three of the Pistons/Rockets/Spurs fall out of the top 4 (Rockets get #6).

Correct.

The Spurs get #6 if the Pistons land in the top 4 but the Rockets and Spurs don't (Rockets get #5).

We also get #6 if Houston lands into top 4 and Detroit doesn't.

The first round pick is unaffected if either or both of the Rockets and Spurs get a top 4 pick.

Correct.

[Ariel]

Rockets won tie breaker

Spurs can still draft ahead of the Rockets in both the first and second round

No. 2nd rounder gets reversed with respect to 1st rounder.

I think we only get 7 if all four top 4 spots are vacated.

I don't know what you mean by vacated... we get #7 if all top 4 spots are covered by teams behind us (equivalent to saying that all top 3 teams fall outside top 4).

[scott]

Updated draft order post-coin flips, including the caveats such as the Spurs SRP would fall to #33 if it ends up higher than Houston's FRP (which, logically stupid that the NBA does it this way, IMO, but that's another discussion).

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/...aft-order.html

[mo7888]

No. 2nd rounder gets reversed with respect to 1st rounder.

I don't know what you mean by vacated... we get #7 if all top 4 spots are covered by teams behind us (equivalent to saying that all top 3 teams fall outside top 4).

That's what he means by vacated. The top 4 currently holding those spots are vacated by teams beglhind them. It could have been said in a cleaner way, but the point come through.

[Barfunk]

We lost the coin flip?!?! FIRE POP!!

[DAF86]

Not to pick the best available talent just because you fear the guy will it up somewhere down the road is such a dumb thing to do.

[rascal]

No. 2nd rounder gets reversed with respect to 1st rounder.

After more research this is correct. 2nd round still to be determined with the final draft order.

[spurs10]

Thanks Ariel for clarification. I've got my fingers crossed for May 16th...Jeez Louise, this lottery is not for the faint of heart.

[duncan2150]

Interesting takes by our guy DPG on twitter

[TD 21]

Just a preview of what's to come in the lottery . . .

[exstatic]

Not to pick the best available talent just because you fear the guy will it up somewhere down the road is such a dumb thing to do.

Spurs have probably dodged dozens of bullets doing just that.

Back in 1986, the GSW drafted an amazing talented big man named Chris Washburn out of North Carolina State with the 3rd overall pick. . He lasted a season and a half before being traded to Atlanta for some player and no picks. He played the rest of that season, was suspended the following season, and banned for life for substance abuse before season four. Someone asked rival ACC coach Dean Smith where he would have drafted Chris, and he said he wouldn’t have. Having recruited him, he knew he had a hornets nest of drug problems. Everyone knew, and Golden State drafted him anyway, wasting the #3 overall pick.

Moral of the story: sidestep land mines.

[Chinook]

All the tie-break means is that in the 23-percent chance that both the Rockets and Spurs miss out on top-four picks, the Rockets would get a better pick than the Spurs. No shade at Deeps for his analysis, but for the picks people care about (Wemby, Hendy, Milly and the best of the rest-y) it doesn't mean anything. Yes, the difference between 5 and 6 or 6 and 7 could matter, but that's well into the "crap shoot" part of the draft, and the Spurs have plenty of capital to move up a bit if they really think that star is there. It's not even all that likely that Houston and SA even want the same players that low.

[Seventyniner]

Not necessarily. If come lottery day the Spurs jump into top 4 and Houston doesn't (40% chance), then we get the worst 2nd rounder (#33)

Thanks, I didn't know that. I thought the second round order was fixed no matter what happened in the first round. But what you said is more fair.

We also get #6 if Houston lands into top 4 and Detroit doesn't.

Good point. I forgot to account for that possibility.

[K...]

Ha were getting the worse thomson bro now. Guarantee.

[scott]

Interesting takes by our guy DPG on twitter

This is an interesting take on it from the perspective of watching the lottery unfold on TV, but the lottery is drawn from 1 to 4, not from 14 down to 1. So, you don't really "survive" picks 6 and 7 and then see your odds of landing 1-4 increase. They pick #1 first, and then #2, etc. Because of the way they present it on TV, it appears like you are "surviving" the picks, but the cards are all already in the envelopes and the odds are all 100% that you're pick is the one you've already drawn. This seems elementary, but it is important to keep in mind as you watch... the odds don't change as cards are unveiled.

However, it would actually be kind of cool if they did the lottery live that way with inverse odds that you "survive". In this case, DET, HOU and SA would each have the lowest number of balls and they would draw for #14, then #13, etc. That would make for more drama, IMO.

One thing I will disagree with the esteemed DPG, on his tweet here. I would not call it "good news" that pick 7 spreads the individual odds lower of landing outside of the top 4. Whether you are #2 or #3 (or #1 for that matter), you still have the same 47.8% chance of landing outside of the Top 4. With the #1 slot, that 47.8% chance is just concentrated in pick 5. For the #2 slot, it is spread among 5 and 6, and for the #3 slot it is spread among 5, 6 and 7. I would classify this as the opposite of good news (aka, bad news).

[scott]

Thanks, I didn't know that. I thought the second round order was fixed no matter what happened in the first round. But what you said is more fair.



Good point. I forgot to account for that possibility.

I honestly think it is less fair and wish the NBA wouldn't do it this way. As it stands now, the Spurs have an X% probability of getting a worse pick than Houston (I could do this math, but I'm too lazy right now, but it is > 50%). Because of this, IMO, the Spurs should get the higher SRP. By waiting until the FRP order has been determined, you eliminate the "compensation" that the Spurs get for taking lower odds at a better pick in the first. Either way, this is a minor gripe, but the economist in me would like to see the "compensation" be granted before the outcome is known, not after.

[scott]

Not necessarily. If come lottery day the Spurs jump into top 4 and Houston doesn't (40% chance), then we get the worst 2nd rounder (#33)

Correct.

We also get #6 if Houston lands into top 4 and Detroit doesn't.

Correct.

Correct me if I am wrong, but this scenario would mean we get #33, but we also get #33 if we both stay in the Top 4, but get the higher pick.

Five Scenarios:

Both Drop Out of Top 4 = Spurs Get 32
Spurs Drop Out of Top 4, Rockets Stay In = Spurs Get 32
Spurs Stay In Top 4, Rockets Drop Out = Spurs Get 33
Both Teams Stay In Top 4, Rockets Pick Higher = Spurs Get 32
Both Teams Stay in Top 4, Spurs Pick Higher = Spurs Get 33

We could of course calculate out all these probabilities, but I'm not going to take the time

[rascal]

This is an interesting take on it from the perspective of watching the lottery unfold on TV, but the lottery is drawn from 1 to 4, not from 14 down to 1. So, you don't really "survive" picks 6 and 7 and then see your odds of landing 1-4 increase. They pick #1 first, and then #2, etc. Because of the way they present it on TV, it appears like you are "surviving" the picks, but the cards are all already in the envelopes and the odds are all 100% that you're pick is the one you've already drawn. This seems elementary, but it is important to keep in mind as you watch... the odds don't change as cards are unveiled.

However, it would actually be kind of cool if they did the lottery live that way with inverse odds that you "survive". In this case, DET, HOU and SA would each have the lowest number of balls and they would draw for #14, then #13, etc. That would make for more drama, IMO.

One thing I will disagree with the esteemed DPG, on his tweet here. I would not call it "good news" that pick 7 spreads the individual odds lower of landing outside of the top 4. Whether you are #2 or #3 (or #1 for that matter), you still have the same 47.8% chance of landing outside of the Top 4. With the #1 slot, that 47.8% chance is just concentrated in pick 5. For the #2 slot, it is spread among 5 and 6, and for the #3 slot it is spread among 5, 6 and 7. I would classify this as the opposite of good news (aka, bad news).

On TV they will announce from 14 to 1.

But if you're watching on TV and the Spurs don't get called for picks 7 or 6 then Houston has a higher chance to get called for 5 than the Spurs.

You'll hear when teams jump into the top 4 as they won't be drafting where they are expected to by record. You don't want to hear many teams jump into the top four before the spurs are called

[offset formation]

I kinda feel like the spurs “won” even if Houston officially did? We got 32 over 33, and basically unaffected odds of getting Wemby. Maybe we drop all the way to 7 but could have dropped to 6 anyway.

I'm nonplussed about who we should draft if we don't get Wembanyama quite frankly. I think I lean towards Miller more than Scoot but neither one of them gives me the expected excitement of drafting in a 2nd or 3rd position one would expect. I have done zero scouting work this year so hopefully there's some Mongolian or Albanian kid no one knows about besides the Spurs if we don't get Wembanyama. Not sure I see more than solid NBA starter on either Scoot or Miller, which we could desperately use, but for our first foray into the top of the draft since Duncan, I'm a bit concerned after #1.

[DPG21920]

This is an interesting take on it from the perspective of watching the lottery unfold on TV, but the lottery is drawn from 1 to 4, not from 14 down to 1. So, you don't really "survive" picks 6 and 7 and then see your odds of landing 1-4 increase. They pick #1 first, and then #2, etc. Because of the way they present it on TV, it appears like you are "surviving" the picks, but the cards are all already in the envelopes and the odds are all 100% that you're pick is the one you've already drawn. This seems elementary, but it is important to keep in mind as you watch... the odds don't change as cards are unveiled.

However, it would actually be kind of cool if they did the lottery live that way with inverse odds that you "survive". In this case, DET, HOU and SA would each have the lowest number of balls and they would draw for #14, then #13, etc. That would make for more drama, IMO.

One thing I will disagree with the esteemed DPG, on his tweet here. I would not call it "good news" that pick 7 spreads the individual odds lower of landing outside of the top 4. Whether you are #2 or #3 (or #1 for that matter), you still have the same 47.8% chance of landing outside of the Top 4. With the #1 slot, that 47.8% chance is just concentrated in pick 5. For the #2 slot, it is spread among 5 and 6, and for the #3 slot it is spread among 5, 6 and 7. I would classify this as the opposite of good news (aka, bad news).

Correct. I was just making the broader point that it’s still 48% chance at not top 4 but individually spreads out risk vs more heavily concentrated (meaning pick 7 would be bad luck and pick 5. Pick 6 is the major concern here)

[Dejounte]

Tbh I have a feeling if Houston picked 2nd and we picked 3rd, it would be good news for us since I don’t think they would select Scoot.

[scott]

On TV they will announce from 14 to 1.

Yeah, I said that.

But if you're watching on TV and the Spurs don't get called for picks 7 or 6 then Houston has a higher chance to get called for 5 than the Spurs.

This is incorrect. If the Spurs don't get called for picks 7 or 6, then the moment before envelope #5 is picked they will have an equal chance of being named 5th as the Rockets, not a lesser %. Along those lines, if the Pistons also have not had their name called, they will also have the exact same odds of being drawn 5th as the Spurs and Rockets. If Charlotte or Portland has not been called up to that point, they will have a higher probability of being called next. Any other team will have a lower probability (0%) than DET, HOU or SA.

You can disagree if you want, but that's not how math works.

You'll hear when teams jump into the top 4 as they won't be drafting where they are expected to by record. You don't want to hear many teams jump into the top four before the spurs are called

Yes, this is how the lottery works. You'll also "hear" when teams jump into the top 4 because the announcer will literally say "this means Team X has moved into the Top 4..."

[jjspur]

Lets keep this simple, in the first round the spurs will pick somewhere between 1 - 7 because of their bad record this year.

Where, is just speculation right now. A team can have the best odds, the worst record and still not get the first pick. Sure statistics help a bit, but until the actual draft lottery, its anybody's guess but I'm sure there will probably be a surprise or two. (Hope its a good one for the spurs)

What we actually do know is that in the in the second round the spurs will have either the 32nd or 33rd pick plus Toronto's 2nd round pick. If you can make it more simple, please do.

[scott]

Lets keep this simple, in the first round the spurs will pick somewhere between 1 - 7 because of their bad record this year.

Where, is just speculation right now. A team can have the best odds, the worst record and still not get the first pick. Sure statistics help a bit, but until the actual draft lottery, its anybody's guess but I'm sure there will probably be a surprise or two. (Hope its a good one for the spurs)

What we actually do know is that in the in the second round the spurs will have either the 32nd or 33rd pick plus Toronto's 2nd round pick. If you can make it more simple, please do.

This is all pretty simple. You nailed it.