Should Spurs make a run at Scoot?

[rascal]

Black is no where near as good as Kidd. Kidd is a better dribbler and passer. Kidd was more coordinated in his overall game.
You have bad eye sight if you can't see Kidd as being much better than Black.

Kidd is a ten time NBA all star and a five time NBA assists leader. Kidd was the 2nd pick in his draft class.

You are overrating Black. Black may not even end up being a starter in the NBA.

[rascal]

I think I'd rather target their #11 than their #6. I think there's better value when I look at the players that will 'fit' best next to Wemby. I'm assuming the top 6 are Wemby, (then no particular order), Scoot, Whitmore, Thompson, Thompson, and Miller. That would mean at #11 at least three of Walker, Hendricks, , Wallace, Black, NSJ, or Bufkin would be available.

I think they're all better fits than any of the guys likely available at #6 and they'd cost less in assets and salary. I think it's the smarter play..

Good points but I would push it down even more to the Utah pick at 16 if they can't move up for Scoot.

At 16 they may get Bufkin or Hood-Shifino who aren't any worse than Black or can add badly needed shooting in Jordan Hawkins with that 16th pick.

[exstatic]

Black is no where near as good as Kidd. Kidd is a better dribbler and passer. Kidd was more coordinated in his overall game.
You have bad eye sight if you can't see Kidd as being much better than Black.

Kidd is a ten time NBA all star and a five time NBA assists leader. Kidd was the 2nd pick in his draft class.

You are overrating Black. Black may not even end up being a starter in the NBA.

Kidd was none of those things when drafted.

[rascal]

Kidd was none of those things when drafted.

His talent was obvious. That's why he was the 2nd overall pick.

[JuneJive]

A lot of virtual ink is being spilled imagining something that will definetly not happen.

The Spurs will not trade for a ~lotto pick.

They won't trade Keldon.

[Mr. Body]

Black is no where near as good as Kidd. Kidd is a better dribbler and passer. Kidd was more coordinated in his overall game.
You have bad eye sight if you can't see Kidd as being much better than Black.

Kidd is a ten time NBA all star and a five time NBA assists leader. Kidd was the 2nd pick in his draft class.

You are overrating Black. Black may not even end up being a starter in the NBA.

Only you would think I was talking about the literal Jason Kidd.

[mo7888]

Good points but I would push it down even more to the Utah pick at 16 if they can't move up for Scoot.

At 16 they may get Bufkin or Hood-Shifino who aren't any worse than Black or can add badly needed shooting in Jordan Hawkins with that 16th pick.

That's not a bad play either... for me it'd come down to the comparable cost to get 11 as opposed to 16..

[Mr. Body]

Regardless, I don't see the Spurs getting anywhere close to the 6, the 10 would need trading a current player, and 11 is maybe a possibility.

Later picks, I think OKC will give enough to move up from 12 and that team will use that pick.

Toronto is facing a cap crunch and could use a rookie at 13.

New Orleans at 14 is a hard call. Their needs are several and unclear. I could see a Derek Lively go here.

Atlanta at 15 is also unclear. They drafted a shooter last year. I don't know if they'd trade out.

Utah at 16 will be packaged to move up, maybe, or else possibly traded out? No idea.

I think GSW could trade out of 19 and Brooklyn has two picks at 21 and 22 and may not value taking players.

But the player that's floating around the late lottery that interests me, of course, is Kobe Bufkin. I'd take him at 11 without thinking. He may be a better fit than Black, if not the defensive possibility. No slouch at defense, he went under the radar most of the season but now everyone's caught on. Probably more of a combo guard but has signs of being very good.

I think he goes no later than 14, or a later team like the Lakers would snap him up. But then Hawkins is floating around out there. (I'd definitely rank Bufkin above Hawkins.)

Not sure what I'd give up to get Bufkin. It's all a hard call.

[mo7888]

A lot of virtual ink is being spilled imagining something that will definetly not happen.

The Spurs will not trade for a ~lotto pick.

They won't trade Keldon.

I don't think they'd have to trade Keldon to get into the late lottery. I mean they could, but they shouldn't have to.

[Kevin]

Next draft is the year for the big move up. Spurs own pick will be movable good chance the Toronto pick will convey and maybe even the Hornets pick. Gotta be patient.

[Ariel]

But the player that's floating around the late lottery that interests me, of course, is Kobe Bufkin. I'd take him at 11 without thinking. He may be a better fit than Black, if not the defensive possibility. No slouch at defense, he went under the radar most of the season but now everyone's caught on. Probably more of a combo guard but has signs of being very good.

I think he goes no later than 14, or a later team like the Lakers would snap him up. But then Hawkins is floating around out there. (I'd definitely rank Bufkin above Hawkins.)

Not sure what I'd give up to get Bufkin. It's all a hard call.

Bufkin could go as high as 9, but I'd say his danger zone is probably 13-20, with 13 (Toronto) and 16 (Utah) being strong possibilities, and 20 (Houston) being his floor.
I think it may be possible to land a pick in the 11-14 range:
12) OKC: if they can't move up and no one slips, they could be interested in the Toronto pick or a long term gamble (say Spurs '29 or '30 unprotected or lightly protected).
13) Toronto: Bufkin would go here, but maybe they could be interested in taking their '24 pick back, which would enable them to tank risk free.
14) New Orleans: candidates are Hawkins and Gradey, but if they're gone maybe they can be interested in taking a future pick (Toronto, Chicago), or multiple assets (McDermott + Charlotte's pick + multiple 2nds for #14 + whatever).
With that said I wouldn't pull the trigger for any deals that are not fair in terms of value. If some team wants to trade out for a future pick or get lesser assets to dump a longer contract for an expiring, great. Otherwise, wait for a bargain in the late teens / early 20s, there should be better opportunities there (with 21/22 being great candidates).

[KobesAchilles]

It bothers me that Black can’t consistently beat his man off the dribble. He is tall so he can shoot over his defender but man he takes tough ass shots at the rim. His playmaking looks really good and his defense is quite good. But there’s literally nothing right about his shot. His footwork is wrong and different a lot on set shots, his catching into his shot is bad, he brings it to the wrong area to shoot and has horrible horrible shot mechanics.

I don’t think drafting a point guard who can’t create his own shots and can’t shoot is the way to go in todays nba. We have Wemby. Surround the mofo with shooters.

[baseline bum]

Good points but I would push it down even more to the Utah pick at 16 if they can't move up for Scoot.

At 16 they may get Bufkin or Hood-Shifino who aren't any worse than Black or can add badly needed shooting in Jordan Hawkins with that 16th pick.

Especially if it doesn't require trading the Atlanta picks / swap nor the Boston swap. Really want to save those for putting a second star next to Wemby in a year or two.

[TD 21]

Good points but I would push it down even more to the Utah pick at 16 if they can't move up for Scoot.

At 16 they may get Bufkin or Hood-Shifino who aren't any worse than Black or can add badly needed shooting in Jordan Hawkins with that 16th pick.

Who knows of it's true, but they're supposedly interested in Coulibaly at 9, with the thinking being they can still grab a PG/combo guard at 16.

[Mr. Body]

It bothers me that Black can’t consistently beat his man off the dribble. He is tall so he can shoot over his defender but man he takes tough ass shots at the rim. His playmaking looks really good and his defense is quite good. But there’s literally nothing right about his shot. His footwork is wrong and different a lot on set shots, his catching into his shot is bad, he brings it to the wrong area to shoot and has horrible horrible shot mechanics.

I don’t think drafting a point guard who can’t create his own shots and can’t shoot is the way to go in todays nba. We have Wemby. Surround the mofo with shooters.

I wonder if people actually have watched Black play?

He beats players off the dribble. What's more, he's not some Blake Wesley where he gets in trouble not knowing what to do at that point. He uses bumps and the hostage dribble at a level few 19 year-olds do.

It doesn't even make sense -- 'beat his man off the dribble.' As if running isos is smart basketball. Running isolations is stupid basketball. That's not even Spurs basketball to begin with. The league runs tons of dribble hand-offs and picks for a reason: it drags the big man out of the lane and makes both defender have to make snap decisions on the fly, something Black is already adept at capitalizing on.

I truly think the analysis here on Black is completely unfounded and very, very confused.

As for his shot, it's not terrible. Amen Thompson - now that's a completely broken and ed up jump shot. Black's issue is an almost too-solid base and repe ion. I'd almost want a shot that needs tweaks and changes than one that looks great and just doesn't go in. His can be more than fixed.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Bufkin could go as high as 9, but I'd say his danger zone is probably 13-20, with 13 (Toronto) and 16 (Utah) being strong possibilities, and 20 (Houston) being his floor.

I agree, I have Bufkin at 9 to Utah. Can imagine they see some Donovan Mitc upside with him if they squint their eyes. If he falls outside of the lottery he'd be awesome value.

[Rocalcio]

Scoot even lead his team to victory over Wemby's team when they played.

Scoot is strong and built like a tank.

No thanks, we don’t want anything related to a tank now

[JPB]

You're claiming that somehow Amen has talent when Black is already vastly more talented than he is, and this isn't particularly debateable. He's much better at nearly every facet of the game on both sides of the ball. Leaving aside defense, which amen is only a 'prospect,' Black is a far better ball handler, passer, facilitator, generator of offense and connector.

Black is a much better shooter. Like, right now, he's a much better shooter.

He's far, far better in the pick and roll.

And he's nearly a year younger.

The only thing you can say about Amen is that he's a better slasher, but we only know that because he was playing against some of the worst professional defenses in the world.

Everyone is getting hung up on what a star and what a role player is. The idea seems to be a run and jump athlete or big scorer is all that a star can be. And Amen isn't even a big scorer.

If you want a comparison to the type of player Black and potentially be, it's a player like Boris Diaw or Jason Kidd. Those weren't big scorers but the sure as multiplied the abilities of those around them. And sure as are the type of players I want on this team. Fortunately we already have one in Sochan and I look forward to seeing how far he goes.

Again, none of these kids have played in the NBA yet, so making definitive judgments about them doesn't make sense... I understand you fell in love with Black, but reading you, he's a 7 year vet who impressed the NBA with overalll game and brought the spurs to 3 les...

We're talking potential here and ceiling, which is drafting is all about, not how good these kids are at draft day, otherwise spurs never pick Kawhi. That's what evaluating is about, trying to see what player porspects can become, not just who they alreay are... Eveyone can see who they are, imagining who they can become is what makes the difference, with the risks it implies.

Black's ceiling is elite role player, Boris type, but you get Boris (or he signs with you) when/because, you already have Tim/Tony/Manu, you don't spend 3 FRPs to get a 18 Bobo in the draft when you're rebuilding. You spend that to try and get your second big dog, or you don't at all. Scoot, Miller, the twins, Cam eventually, have a higher ceiling than Black, it's probably more risky since you can indeed already see a lot of nice things with Black, but trading Hill for Kawhi was risky... And that's the only time you can eventually do that, when your evaluation tells you that player could be a difference maker if well developed in your program. You just don't take that risk for a role player, specially when you're 2023 spurs.

And I don't think I have to elaborate much on comparing Black with Kidd... Wow! You're really in love... kidd was an all time great passer, perannial all star. His lack of shooting would make hilm less relevant today but he's not playing today, so... Black may never sniff an all star game in his entire career.

[Dejounte]

Um. Kawhi is the wrong player to use. He was projected as a high floor, low ceiling prospect… even all the way up until his second or third year. Even after he was showing star quality in his 3rd year, no one believed it because he wasn’t athletic enough.

not saying Black is that. But Kawhi is a bad example.

[Dejounte]

Very easy to find nonbelievers on this forum itself. Just dig through old threads and a lot of people talked about Kawhi just being a role player on here. In fact, a lot of the words being said about the current roster sounds like recycled garbage about Kawhi. Not saying anyone of them are Kawhi, but people have a tendency to pretend they know the future about players a lot.

I’m calling out a wide range of people here from both ends of the spectrum… a lot of you guys don’t learn your lesson and you pretend you know how everything’s gonna go. You don’t. Pull your head out of your ass.

[Mr. Body]

Again, none of these kids have played in the NBA yet, so making definitive judgments about them doesn't make sense... I understand you fell in love with Black, but reading you, he's a 7 year vet who impressed the NBA with overalll game and brought the spurs to 3 les...

We're talking potential here and ceiling, which is drafting is all about, not how good these kids are at draft day, otherwise spurs never pick Kawhi. That's what evaluating is about, trying to see what player porspects can become, not just who they alreay are... Eveyone can see who they are, imagining who they can become is what makes the difference, with the risks it implies.

Black's ceiling is elite role player, Boris type, but you get Boris (or he signs with you) when/because, you already have Tim/Tony/Manu, you don't spend 3 FRPs to get a 18 Bobo in the draft when you're rebuilding. You spend that to try and get your second big dog, or you don't at all. Scoot, Miller, the twins, Cam eventually, have a higher ceiling than Black, it's probably more risky since you can indeed already see a lot of nice things with Black, but trading Hill for Kawhi was risky... And that's the only time you can eventually do that, when your evaluation tells you that player could be a difference maker if well developed in your program. You just don't take that risk for a role player, specially when you're 2023 spurs.

And I don't think I have to elaborate much on comparing Black with Kidd... Wow! You're really in love... kidd was an all time great passer, perannial all star. His lack of shooting would make hilm less relevant today but he's not playing today, so... Black may never sniff an all star game in his entire career.

You're the one with this weirdo projection of 'role player' for Black. Not even sure what that means.

To enforce this, you take the entire career of Kidd and compare him to Black as a nineteen year old.

Somehow Amen is a superstar for whatever fantasy next fifteen years in the league he'll have flying to the rim doing any thing imaginable, as if his growth curve is infinite, yet Black has no growth curve whatsoever. You realize Nash was a skinny dude coming into the league with more question marks than promise at one time, too, right?

So why is Black going to take his great at ude, work ethic, ability to see the floor, BBIQ, and defense and never get better? Why are you comparing him right now not to other high IQ, talented players when they entered the league and instead scratch him for not having a twenty year career already?

It's completely senseless.

If there's a player in the lottery, other than Victor, who I think will have a very long very impactful career bringing a lot of wins where he knows how to improve, it's very clearly Black.

This is how it happens.

[exstatic]

Another thing that Dean says is that you should draft for the median outcome, not the 99% upside, since that's the most likely outcome. I'm not sure I agree with that if we don't have Wemby, but we do. We hit the homerun, and now just need some singles and solid doubles thru the draft.

[JPB]

Um. Kawhi is the wrong player to use. He was projected as a high floor, low ceiling prospect… even all the way up until his second or third year. Even after he was showing star quality in his 3rd year, no one believed it because he wasn’t athletic enough.

not saying Black is that. But Kawhi is a bad example.

Hum, that's the whole point....He is the perfect example of what drafting is about. Spurs gambled and traded a very valuable asset for him because of the player they thought he could become, not the player he was a draft day that made 14 teams pass. Great f'king job... They didn't spend 3FPRs for a role player, but a 26th pick role player for a future MVP level player, at least someone they saw star potential in their development program... One of the best moves in draft history and the only ones you should make...

[exstatic]

Hum, that's the whole point....He is the perfect example of what drafting is about. Spurs gambled and traded a very valuable asset for him because of the player they thought he could become, not the player he was a draft day that made 14 teams pass. Great f'king job... They didn't spend 3FPRs for a role player, but a 26th pick role player for a future MVP level player, at least someone they saw star potential in their development program... One of the best moves in draft history and the only ones you should make...

Spurs had no idea what he would become. Pop said that they thought he would be like a super Bowen. As for all those assets we have, the bulk and best of them came from flipping a 29 pick. They can be spent with a clear conscience when needed.

[Dejounte]

Hum, that's the whole point....He is the perfect example of what drafting is about. Spurs gambled and traded a very valuable asset for him because of the player they thought he could become, not the player he was a draft day that made 14 teams pass. Great f'king job... They didn't spend 3FPRs for a role player, but a 26th pick role player for a future MVP level player, at least someone they saw star potential in their development program... One of the best moves in draft history and the only ones you should make...

I vehemently disagree they saw Kawhi becoming who he would become. They wanted to get their new version of Bowen because the big 3 could still compete. It wasn’t a gamble pick. He was a “best fit” for what we had at the time.