2023 NBA Free Agency Thread - June 30 @ 5 pm CDT

[BacktoBasics]

27M this year, 29M next, 31 next & 33M 4th year. Fully guaranteed

No way. That’s too much and for too long.

[scott]

27M this year, 29M next, 31 next & 33M 4th year. Fully guaranteed

I think it makes a lot of sense, with any FA, to start thinking in terms of % of the Cap. The new CBA and 10% annual cap increases is going to result in players getting deals that seem mind blowing for guys who have been following the league for 30 years, but in reality aren't that far off from deals of the past.

For example, Danny Green's $10MM salary in 2015/16 when the salary cap was $70MM was 14.3% of the cap.

Tyler Herro's $33MM salary in 2026-27 will be 18.2% of the cap.

Danny Green's salary in 2023-24 at 14.3% of the cap would have been $19.5MM.

We see things like Jak making $20MM/year and think it's a huge number... but Jak really just got Danny Green's deal.

I'm not saying this to argue that Herro's contract is right, just pointing out some important context. (Also worth noting, we are currently paying Keldon - our highest paid player - below a Danny Green level deal)

[Dejounte]

"Obsess"

It's not obsessing. It's discussion on a message board. I mean, I guess we could be starting 10 paragraph threads to once again state how much we love Anthony Black (in the event you missed the 800 other posts about it), but instead we're discussing a relevant timely topic. No one here is slitting their wrists because we didn't get Austin Reaves, we're merely discussing a free agent in a thread about free agency. The discussion obviously has little appeal to you, so why not just stay out of it?

You start some good discussions, but why the need to come around and on every discussion that doesn't align with your worldview? Is your life really this pathetic?

I’m trying to skip over the posts where Body gets into his mood and cries like a ing baby but there has been too ing many. Just shut the up already and let people post what they want to post. Jesus Christ

[Mr. Body]

"Obsess"

It's not obsessing. It's discussion on a message board. I mean, I guess we could be starting 10 paragraph threads to once again state how much we love Anthony Black (in the event you missed the 800 other posts about it), but instead we're discussing a relevant timely topic. No one here is slitting their wrists because we didn't get Austin Reaves, we're merely discussing a free agent in a thread about free agency. The discussion obviously has little appeal to you, so why not just stay out of it?

You start some good discussions, but why the need to come around and on every discussion that doesn't align with your worldview? Is your life really this pathetic?

You fanatics are STILL talking about a guy the team never had a chance of landing.

If this was a college sorority it might stand a chance of being adorable.

As it stands it's starting to look psychotic.

[td4mvp2k]

Herro sucks and his contract sucks…NO THANKS

they can always flip him

[Mr. Body]

Posters of Austin Reaves on your walls, lots of crusty socks laying around.

[Mr. Body]

they can always flip him

No one wants Herro as it is. How easy was it to flip John Collins?

[TrueSpursFan]

they can always flip him

Either now or next season when you hope he plays above that contract. Either way, the amount is not the issue, it’s the length of it that contract. If it were 2 years left, would anyone be opposed?

[RC_Drunkford]

Watch the Raptors trying to get into this

[scott]

Since you see him as a max value please predict his season next year.

I don't want to back away from this since I've been part of this Reaves discussion too and don't think 4/100 is that bad of a deal for him (I do think it is a bit of an overpay, but overpaying is what the Spurs need to do to get FAs. I say 4/80 like Keldon is his true value. 4/56 is a steal).

Since he is playing on the Lakers, I'll predict 16/4/4 next season with slightly improved advanced stats on around 28 mpg (like he was at this year). I think his stats would have been higher on the Spurs where he would have been a 2nd or 3rd option, but on the Lakers he'll likely be the 4th option.

[baseline bum]

Shams Charania ShamsCharania
12s
Rockets are nearing a deal with Dillon Brooks, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. Houston has been lining up trades around league, and could turn Brooks deal into sign-and-trade with Memphis.

[DPG21920]

I think it makes a lot of sense, with any FA, to start thinking in terms of % of the Cap. The new CBA and 10% annual cap increases is going to result in players getting deals that seem mind blowing for guys who have been following the league for 30 years, but in reality aren't that far off from deals of the past.

For example, Danny Green's $10MM salary in 2015/16 when the salary cap was $70MM was 14.3% of the cap.

Tyler Herro's $33MM salary in 2026-27 will be 18.2% of the cap.

Danny Green's salary in 2023-24 at 14.3% of the cap would have been $19.5MM.

We see things like Jak making $20MM/year and think it's a huge number... but Jak really just got Danny Green's deal.

I'm not saying this to argue that Herro's contract is right, just pointing out some important context. (Also worth noting, we are currently paying Keldon - our highest paid player - below a Danny Green level deal)

Agree - and I do factor that in personally (but that’s a good point for everyone to keep in mind as we see eye popping nominal numbers)

[DPG21920]

they can always flip him

I dont see a way he improves his value here. He was in a great situation in MIA and its not been great post contract….too much risk not enough reward IMVHO….Vassell>Herro IMO

Branham could be better too (not now obviously but in like 2 years)

[DPG21920]

Reeves > Herro - so ya, I’d rather have paid Reeves 25M than Herro 30M personally

[Chinook]

THEY WERE NEVER GETTING REAVES. EVEN THE REAVES CAMP ADMITS THIS. MOVE THE ON.

Calm down , man. No one cares if they were going to get Reaves. That doesn't mean I can't find the idea of them trading for Herro to be a worse prospect to having signed him. The only person getting riled up about Reaves or Collins is you.

[td4mvp2k]

No one wants Herro as it is. How easy was it to flip John Collins?

i disagre. dont compare him to a center who cant shoot.

[spurraider21]

We could always attach like 6 second rounders to get off Herro and still have 15 left

[BacktoBasics]

I don't want to back away from this since I've been part of this Reaves discussion too and don't think 4/100 is that bad of a deal for him (I do think it is a bit of an overpay, but overpaying is what the Spurs need to do to get FAs. I say 4/80 like Keldon is his true value. 4/56 is a steal).

Since he is playing on the Lakers, I'll predict 16/4/4 next season with slightly improved advanced stats on around 28 mpg (like he was at this year). I think his stats would have been higher on the Spurs where he would have been a 2nd or 3rd option, but on the Lakers he'll likely be the 4th option.

25 million a year for 16/4/4? I actually don’t think those numbers are a stretch for him. At 56 million that stat line is a fair value but at 100 million it would be underwhelming in my opinion.

[objective]

Great explanation of the value of agency, especially for those who seem to think that agents are just glorified secretaries.

Yeah, and even though I could be 100% wrong, I do think trust with agencies might have been key here.

They got screwed bad by Marcus Morris. Rich Paul distanced himself from the disaster and put it all on Morris and then worked with the Spurs on Trey Lyles. They gave up assets based on the verbal agreement, and were burned.

Afterwards, pop was quoted as saying this,

""It was more than difficult to lose Davis (Bertans), let's just say that was an unfortunate situation that was handled unprofessionally on a couple of different levels,"

So I think being professional and having trust is a big issue with them. Could they trust this one agency from New Jersey with one client to risk the asset of cap space until the moratorium was over?

[timvp]

Yeah, Tyler Herro's contract isn't that bad. I'm sure there are multiple teams out there that grade him as a positive value.

For the Spurs? Nah, don't like the fit. Too one-dimensional and I want the offensive pecking order to be clear during Wemby's rookie season. Adding Herro would cause a lot of commotion in that regard.

[scott]

I put Herro in the same camp as Dame. Not my preferred option, but wouldn't hate it if that's the direction we went - especially if we gave up minimal assets to do it as part of facilitating the Dame deal.

He's a young, proven 20ppg scorer (on a good team, not a tanking team) with high eFG% and 3P%. Though his contract is high (but not *that* much higher than a proposed Devin extension), it still doesn't kill us due to the fact we have so many guys on rookie deals. (Don't think Dame's really kills us either for this same reason). We still would have tons of FRPs to find a second star (or combine to trade for one).

How realistically could Herro start at PG?

I feel like Herro is a better player than Devin - which I could be wrong about because I don't profess to be an expert on Tyler Herro - and if that is true, then his contract isn't really that terrible in the context of the new CBA. And after two years he does become more tradeable (his contract, while not declining, does decline in terms of % of cap, and with only two years left he'd be easier to get off if necessary).

[duncan2150]

Reeves > Herro - so ya, I’d rather have paid Reeves 25M than Herro 30M personally

imo herro's ceilling is better that reaves, way better offensive player in my opinion but maybe same level on d, playmaking looks on reaves side but herro is a good passer and ballhander

the contract is huge and i don't really see the fit tough

[td4mvp2k]

I dont see a way he improves his value here. He was in a great situation in MIA and its not been great post contract….too much risk not enough reward IMVHO….Vassell>Herro IMO

Branham could be better too (not now obviously but in like 2 years)

miami doesnt have wemby. he's been dealing with injuries past couple years. they would put him on the same rehab program as collins. who says he couldnt play with vassell.

[scott]

25 million a year for 16/4/4? I actually don’t think those numbers are a stretch for him. At 56 million that stat line is a fair value but at 100 million it would be underwhelming in my opinion.

I think it goes back to my other point that 4/100 isn't that huge of a contract anymore with the new CBA. I think 16/4/4 is massively overperforming a 4/56 deal (4/56 is $14MM/year which is just slightly over the MLE at this point)

[scott]

Yeah, and even though I could be 100% wrong, I do think trust with agencies might have been key here.

They got screwed bad by Marcus Morris. Rich Paul distanced himself from the disaster and put it all on Morris and then worked with the Spurs on Trey Lyles. They gave up assets based on the verbal agreement, and were burned.

Afterwards, pop was quoted as saying this,

""It was more than difficult to lose Davis (Bertans), let's just say that was an unfortunate situation that was handled unprofessionally on a couple of different levels,"

So I think being professional and having trust is a big issue with them. Could they trust this one agency from New Jersey with one client to risk the asset of cap space until the moratorium was over?

Definitely a hugely underrated aspect of the business of the NBA. It's not 2k where you just push a button and an offer is official and immediately accepted/rejected. Relationships matter.