Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[rascal]

Expect Toronto to tank and try to get into the top 5.

[exstatic]

Even if the Raptors fall all the way to the 5th worst record, there is still a 36.1% chance the Spurs get the pick anyway. 56.6% chance if the Raptors finish with the 6th worst record.

I think it would be very hard for them to tank past any of the Spurs/Pistons/Wizards/Hornets.

They’re closer to 11th than 5th.

[baseline bum]

Sheppard? lol

You think he'll be there 7 to 11?

[exstatic]

if one of them get a scratch on em...Toronto will sit them...They are going for
the tank

It doesn’t matter. You can’t out tank teams that have been on the tank since October. ALL of those teams are sitting players for a hangnail.

[exstatic]

Been saying all season that pick is unlikely to convey because they were likely to trade Siakim by the deadline and eventually tank. This was a pretty easy call tbh. Makes no sense for them to tread around the 11th Seed in the East.

They’re not getting into the top 5.

[exstatic]

So many of the picks the Spurs acquired aren't or wont convey. This is why pick hoarding is overrated. Hornets pick probably never conveys as a first and now there's a decent chance we'll have to wait on the Raps pick. The Bulls prolly tank next season too so good chance that pick wont convey anytime soon. Hawks will never full tank as long as the Spurs control the 2025-27 picks for those thirsting for Flagg and Boozer.

We haven’t actually had one not convey yet. The one most like to go to SRPs is the CHA pick, which was more or less a throw in on top of the Atlanta treasure. The next most likely to not convey is the CHI pick, which was obtained in a trade of an unrestricted FA, when in all likelihood, we should get nothing.

[spurraider21]

You think he'll be there 7 to 11?

pretty certain, yeah. the better question is if he's worthy of it

i just brought him up as somebody with nba ready shooting

[SpursBills]

I have a hard time thinking that Toronto is finishing in the bottom 6 for 3 years in a row with IQ and an improving Scottie Barnes. Even if the pick doesn't convey this year, I have to think with "generational talent" Cooper flagg available in 2025 there are going to be teams tanking even more aggressively next year.

[exstatic]

bro...Do u think they are contenders in the east or something in the next few years..
Unless they get a superstar free agent this summer,They will suck and there goal
will be to try get flagg or boozer

Their BEST chance at Flagg or Boozer is to convey the pick this year. With a lottery pick on board, they will suck LESS next year, hurting their chances at Flagg. If they get a non Flagg lottery pick in 2025, it hurts their chances at Boozer. Winning this year hurts their chances down the road.

[rascal]

They can tank all they want, but there are 5 teams below them they can't out tank. 6 is their floor if they tank hard and then it's just up to the ping pong balls.

Don't count on that. Portland can slide above them if Toronto tanks hard.

[exstatic]

Don't count on that. Portland can slide above them if Toronto tanks hard.

Nope.

[rascal]

They’re closer to 11th than 5th.

Still a long way to go in the season. Not out of the possibility they try to keep their pick this year and tank into the bottom 5.

[SpursBills]

wright needs to be fired....And we need to sign iq to with them for stealing poeltl from us

This has to be a joke right? You can blame Wright for a lot of things, but that Poeltl trade was absolutely the right move at that time. Even if the spurs get unlucky and the pick never conveys it doesn't mean it was a bad decision. What was your preferred outcome, to have the Spurs keep Poeltl, finish with like the 6th worst record, and roll into this season with Tre, Vassell, Keldon, Poeltl, and...Taylor Hendricks or something?

[spurraider21]

if toronto lands at #5, that still leaves a ~36% chance of the pick conveying

[rascal]

We haven’t actually had one not convey yet. The one most like to go to SRPs is the CHA pick, which was more or less a throw in on top of the Atlanta treasure. The next most likely to not convey is the CHI pick, which was obtained in a trade of an unrestricted FA, when in all likelihood, we should get nothing.

Last year you were sure the Charlotte pick was going to convey this year because they can't tank with Ball on the team and Miller and Williams and Bridges coming back.


You were wrong then as you're wrong again now.

[rascal]

if toronto lands at #5, that still leaves a ~36% chance of the pick conveying

Yes but the odds at 5 will favor Toronto keeping the pick. Only 5 games on the win column with Portland with still over 30 game left. Plenty of time for Portland to pass them if they start sitting players.

[spurraider21]

with both the spurs placement and the raptors protection coming into play, this might be one of the more exciting and impactful draft lotteries in recent spurs memory tbh

[scott]

We haven’t actually had one not convey yet. The one most like to go to SRPs is the CHA pick, which was more or less a throw in on top of the Atlanta treasure. The next most likely to not convey is the CHI pick, which was obtained in a trade of an unrestricted FA, when in all likelihood, we should get nothing.

And not to be forgotten, we've already effectively gotten one other FRP (which we became Malaki Branham) for that DeRozan deal to CHI (via Thad Young to TOR). With that said, we still want that CHI pick to convey... I'd say it's still about 60-65% likely to convey at this point.

[spurraider21]

Yes but the odds at 5 will favor Toronto keeping the pick. Only 5 games on the win column with Portland with still over 30 game left. Plenty of time for Portland to pass them if they start sitting players.

oh , i hadnt realized that 36% was less than 50%

[Mugen]

It's a ty draft anyways when Topic, Buzelis, Collier, Holland, Castle, etc have all looked pretty disappointing so no way Dillingham would last to 7. Won't be heartbroken if it rolls over to a top 6 protected 25 pick instead or if they trade it for Murray or some other decent vet.

2024 7-9thpick = 2025 late lottery - late teens tbh.

Not the end of the world if we don't get it this year but was just funny to see everybody pencil it in already

I'd try to move the pick ASAP if it doesn't convey this year tbh, let somebody else worry about it while getting Wemby some much needed, immediate help for next season.

[Mr. Body]

Nope.

If Shaeden finally drops the facade and turns into Michael Jordan then the Blazers are deffo winning the championship.

[scott]

Don't count on that. Portland can slide above them if Toronto tanks hard.

If Portland wants to tank, no one will catch them. Portland are undisputed tank champions of the world.

[Mugen]

Yes but the odds at 5 will favor Toronto keeping the pick. Only 5 games on the win column with Portland with still over 30 game left. Plenty of time for Portland to pass them if they start sitting players.

You're giving Chauncey way too much credit tbh. He might be the 2nd or 3rd worst coach in the league easily

[onechance87]

Their BEST chance at Flagg or Boozer is to convey the pick this year. With a lottery pick on board, they will suck LESS next year, hurting their chances at Flagg. If they get a non Flagg lottery pick in 2025, it hurts their chances at Boozer. Winning this year hurts their chances down the road.

Wrong....We got wemby and are worst then last year

[duncan2150]

Expect Toronto to tank and try to get into the top 5.

The best they can be is six imo, nearly impossible for them to reach portland.