If Portland finishes with the 4th worst record in the league 3 years in a row, there is still a 47% chance that their pick conveys. If they finish with the 4th worst record 2 years and the 5th worst record for 1 year, there's a 58% chance that their pick conveys. Even if they finish with the 3rd worst record 3 years in a row, there is a 20% chance that the pick conveys. If you wanted to wager money right now that the pick doesn't convey over the next 3 years, I am happy to take you up on this as I think that the odds favor the pick conveying over the next 3 years.