2024 NBA Draft Thread

[baseline bum]

Research project initiated. I'm going to focus on the Top 8 Leagues in this article: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ll-leagues-nba - it is an older one, but it's the most relevant I could find to set a baseline in order to prevent hunting down some 18 year old prospect averaging 45 ppg in some backwoods Brataslavan league.

Note, however, that I do think there is an immediately difference between Doncic, Sengun and Topic that needs to be taken into account. Doncic and Sengun did their work in the top 3 leagues (per the ESPN rankings), whereas Topic was doing it in a much lesser league on a much lesser team that he got loaned to (and presumably could get more PT and spotlight). Topic's first two ABA games back with Red Star did see a drop off in performance and efficiency, and he certainly did not impress in the two EuroLeague games. While it is a small sample size, I think it is too premature to either write Topic off OR to automatically put him in a list with Doncic and Sengun of 18 year olds who "kicked ass" in European leagues.

None the less, I'm going to do some research and we'll see if it holds up.

I don't think anyone should be compared to Doncic; that's just painting with the broadest brush possible. He won Euroleague MVP and led his team to the Euroleague le at age 19. He had by far the best resume any 19 year old entering the draft has ever had.

[baseline bum]

It was two games.

Two games which did nothing to dispel the notion that maybe he was just putting up numbers against low end compe ion. Oh well, he'll have plenty of chance to prove himself over the next three months, but as of now lumping him in with Doncic and Sengun is lunacy.

[spurraider21]

Lol, I get what people are saying, chump. I agree that he's a decent prospect. I draw the line at some horoscope bull crap about his brother. He's not his brother

Might as well scout players with November birthdays, because he has a November birthday.

I think my position is kindergarten clear. It's you with garbage in your ears.

how many times have you referenced "kentucky guards" when talking about dilly

[scott]

This is fun, because it's a stroll down the memory lane of "oh yeah I remember that guy". Here are the only examples I could find of European NBA players who played relatively well as 18-year olds in Europe. This is kind of a hard project because I don't know much about European basketball. I assumed that 18 year old who lit it up in Europe would be drafted high, so I only focused on high picks. It is amazing at how many lottery picks got used on European players who had shown nothing in Europe.

• Danilo Gallinari averaged 10.9/4/1 in 2006-07 for Armani Jeans Milano (love the team names). He turned 18 on Aug 6, 2006.
• Big Daddy Val was decent as an 18-year old in Euroleague, averaging 7.7/6 in 2010-11. He turned 18 on May 6, 2010.
• Jan Vesely was picked #6 overall by the Wizards in 2011. Let's hope we never screw up a lotto pick this bad. As an 18yo he put up 4.8/3 in Euroleague.
• Dario Saric didn't break out until he was 19, where he averaged 12.9/8/3 in Eurocup
• Dani Avdija, who I remember being a lot of people's pet cat on this board, did absolutely jack in Euroleague
• Pokusevski has no noteworthy stats... how did this guy get scouted?

Kind of gave up here. Definitely appears that Topic is in rare air as an 18yo performing well in a Top 8 European league. Closest I can find is Gallinari, which would be a pretty good floor. Certainly you'd hope a Top 5 pick would be an all-star, but getting a Gallinari-like career from a pick would still be better than the vast majority of outcomes of lottery picks. , if you told me you could somehow assure a Gallinari-like career from any of the guys in this year's draft, I'd take them #1 overall.

[scott]

Now to evaluate the "Brothers Theory", because I'd think it would be fun. Ignoring the brain-dead musings of an egotistical piss-fetish monger, obviously being someone's brother isn't an indicator of anything. The premise is that when two brothers have both proven NBA-worthy players, the brother who performed better in college at the same age ends up being the better pro. It should be noted that the basic premise likely holds true the majority of the time: the better college player at the same age ends up the better pro player. There are obviously exceptions, but usually good NBA players we also good college players.

Let's take a look at the data. I'm going to ignore brother pairings like Julian and Justin Champagnie... because who is to say which one is the better pro at this point. I'm going to focus on bother pairings who have enough years under their belt to where most people can agree who the better pro is. They also both had to attend college for at least one year, which exclused Lameo vs. Lonzo ball for example.

1. Seth Curry vs Steph Curry. Obvious Steph is the better pro. Big brother Steph also has better stats at every age level. Only their freshman seasons were close, when Seth was at Liberty before transferring to Duke.

2. Aaron, Jrue and Justin Holiday. Jrue should be well acknowledged as the best of the 3. However you can make a case Aaron was the better college player. His Freshman year at UCLA he put up 10.3ppg, 4apg, 3.0 rpg, 1.4 spg whereas Jrue put up 8.5 ppg, 3.7apg, 3.8 rpg, 1.6 spg. Jrue's FG% was much better at .528 vs .394. Jrue also had a higher WS/40. Jrue was Pac-12 All Freshman team, Aaron was not. You make the call.3. Tyus, Tre Jones. Tyus a better college player and a better pro.

4. Brooks and Robin Lopez. Brooks better college and pro.

5. Caleb Martin and Cody Martin. Caleb the better college and pro player, but both just role players and it's kind of close.

6. Evan and Isaiah Mobley. Evan on both.

7. Jaden and Jalen McDaniels. Jaden the better college player. Pretty close in pros, but Jaden a little better.

8. Keegan and Kris Murray. It's Keegan for both.

9. Markieff and Marcus Morris. Marcus gets the nod in college, and probably a slight nod in the pros as well.

10. Franz and Mo Wagner. Franz was definitely the better freshman. Their sophmore years are comparable. Franz the better pro.

[spurraider21]

Mario Hezonja?

[scott]

Mario Hezonja?

Took a look at him, but he actually didn't do much in Europe until 2020-21 when he was already 25. As an 18 year old he average 5.4 ppg in ACB and 1.6ppg in Euroleague.

[spurraider21]

Took a look at him, but he actually didn't do much in Europe until 2020-21 when he was already 25. As an 18 year old he average 5.4 ppg in ACB and 1.6ppg in Euroleague.

i just remember him getting drafted pretty young as well, though he was raw

[scott]

Yeah a lot of those early draft picks of European players are dicey, to say the least. Though honestly you can say the same about American prospects too.

[CGD]

Think we’ve seen social media posts of Spurs personnel watching Topic and Rasicher. Have folks seen anything similar with Sarr?

[BackHome]

Two games which did nothing to dispel the notion that maybe he was just putting up numbers against low end compe ion. Oh well, he'll have plenty of chance to prove himself over the next three months, but as of now lumping him in with Doncic and Sengun is lunacy.

My question is this is Risacher playing in the same league that Topic was playing in before he moved up?

[exstatic]

My question is this is Risacher playing in the same league that Topic was playing in before he moved up?

I believe Risacher is playing in the French A league.

[TrainOfThought5]

Mr Body....

You realise he was just talking about PROBABILITIES, don't you?

It's a FACT that OFTEN TIMES (probability) younger brothers learn quicker by hanging out/training etc with their older brother(s)

We're doing projections and this argument has as much value than most in imagining what type of player one can become, especailly if you add Cody's hight or wingspan bigger than his brother's

We are going to see this effect in Lebron’s sons firsthand and it’s going to be massive. His second son is going to be THEE Son. Same thing with Deion’s kids.

[baseline bum]

My question is this is Risacher playing in the same league that Topic was playing in before he moved up?

Risacher is playing in the same league Victor played in in France. Topic was playing the Adriatic league (ABA).

[Mr. Body]

Mr Body....

You realise he was just talking about PROBABILITIES, don't you?

It's a FACT that OFTEN TIMES (probability) younger brothers learn quicker by hanging out/training etc with their older brother(s)

We're doing projections and this argument has as much value than most in imagining what type of player one can become, especailly if you add Cody's hight or wingspan bigger than his brother's

Yes, draft a player ten spots too high because of probabilities. Enjoy getting fired.

[baseline bum]

We are going to see this effect in Lebron’s sons firsthand and it’s going to be massive. His second son is going to be THEE Son. Same thing with Deion’s kids.

You would have thought so from the highlight videos all over the internet the previous summer but last I checked Bryce James isn't even a starter in HS and was averaging like 5PPG.

[The Truth #6]

Yes, draft a player ten spots too high because of probabilities. Enjoy getting fired.

And you suggest they should base their opinions on not data but a good strong handshake?

[scott]

Here's a list of PG prospects I'd love some opinions on:

Juan Nunez - 19 year old averaging 10.4ppg, 5.8 apg, 3.8rpg in EuroCup, had a decent run last summer for Spain in FIBA, 7.0ppg, 6.3apg, 4.7rpg in 21.7mpg
Tamin Lipsey - Iowa State
Ajay Mitc - UC Santa Barbara

[Pauleta14]

Yes, draft a player ten spots too high because of probabilities. Enjoy getting fired.

What else do u think projections are based on?!?

[scott]

NBA GMs don't like to take risks on projections and probabilities. That is why teams are only drafting college seniors these days.

[JPB]

This is fun, because it's a stroll down the memory lane of "oh yeah I remember that guy". Here are the only examples I could find of European NBA players who played relatively well as 18-year olds in Europe. This is kind of a hard project because I don't know much about European basketball. I assumed that 18 year old who lit it up in Europe would be drafted high, so I only focused on high picks. It is amazing at how many lottery picks got used on European players who had shown nothing in Europe.

• Danilo Gallinari averaged 10.9/4/1 in 2006-07 for Armani Jeans Milano (love the team names). He turned 18 on Aug 6, 2006.
• Big Daddy Val was decent as an 18-year old in Euroleague, averaging 7.7/6 in 2010-11. He turned 18 on May 6, 2010.
• Jan Vesely was picked #6 overall by the Wizards in 2011. Let's hope we never screw up a lotto pick this bad. As an 18yo he put up 4.8/3 in Euroleague.
• Dario Saric didn't break out until he was 19, where he averaged 12.9/8/3 in Eurocup
• Dani Avdija, who I remember being a lot of people's pet cat on this board, did absolutely jack in Euroleague
• Pokusevski has no noteworthy stats... how did this guy get scouted?

Kind of gave up here. Definitely appears that Topic is in rare air as an 18yo performing well in a Top 8 European league. Closest I can find is Gallinari, which would be a pretty good floor. Certainly you'd hope a Top 5 pick would be an all-star, but getting a Gallinari-like career from a pick would still be better than the vast majority of outcomes of lottery picks. , if you told me you could somehow assure a Gallinari-like career from any of the guys in this year's draft, I'd take them #1 overall.

Toni Kukoc, Arvydas Sabonis and Drazen Petrovic (R.I.P), specially the last two, were performing well at 18 and would have been drafted high today before their 20s, but that was another time where scouts weren't trusting young euros.

[scott]

Toni Kukoc, Arvydas Sabonis and Drazen Petrovic (R.I.P), specially the last two, were performing well at 18 and would have been drafted high today before their 20s, but that was another time where scouts weren't trusting young euros.

And all three were very successful NBA players, which just reinforces the general concept that early success in Europe translates well to success in the NBA.

I'm not super impressed with the videos I've watched of Topic, but you can't deny the production at Mega and Red Star in ABA play this year (though only a 14 game sample size). I think the big question is whether the ABA is a good enough league to draw many conclusions on. Doncic and Sengun showed their stuff in Europe's top leagues. Topic really needs to show something in EuroLeague.

But, the Adriatic League has produced Jokic, Saric, Nurkic, Bojan Bogdanovic, and now Micic is in the NBA.

Also did not realize Spurs alums Banes, Joffrey, Bertans, Beno played in the ABA. Also Milutinov and Dragic. Maybe PAFTO has a secret boner for the ABA.

[exstatic]

A young PG who easily gets to the rim in any decent European league is worth noting. The spacing over there is awful,since they shoot fewer threes from a closer arc.

[Bruno]

Ricky Rubio was also a player who was very good at a young age in Europe.

Regarding Topic, I'm just waiting to see what he will do in Euroleague (or against Partizan in local leagues). I just don't really see the point of deciding now if he could be a good pick while we will have way more meaningful games/stats to evaluate him in a couple of months.

So far, Cody Williams and Risacher seem to be the 2 best options for Spurs first round pick.

[baseline bum]

Yes, draft a player ten spots too high because of probabilities. Enjoy getting fired.

You think Cody Williams is 13th best in this weak draft?