2024 NBA Draft Thread

[Mitch Cumsteen]

Dunn has so much going for him, but in this day and age, how many more non-shooting threats can the Spurs afford to have on the roster? 58% from the line is getting into hack-a-Dunn territory.

His shot needs a lot of work. The release looks okay. When he catches and shoots, his base is really wide, he takes a deep knee bend before liftoff and brings the ball down to his waist. He doesn't always shoot at the top of his jump. The whole thing needs to be more compact. There's a lot of wasted motion in there.

[DAF86]

Everyone’s Favorite Prospect

This Is The Problem With 1-Dimensional Shooters. If Their Shot Isn’t On, Their Ways To Score Are Limited And They Go On To Have Virtually Little Impact On The Game. It’s Almost Like What Everybody Complains About Vassell But To A Greater Degree Since Risacher Is Much More Of A Stiff Than Vassell Is Because Of His Size And Lesser Agility.

These Euroleague Players Are Toying With Him On Offense, Getting By Him Like It’s Nothing And He’s Being Pushed Around By Bigger Players. This Guy Has No Chance Against Nba Players Tbh.

Dude, this is Bush league. As if Buzelis didn't have games where he looked like complete ass. I actually wouldn't be opposed to Buzelis if his FT shooting wasn't as ty as his 3pt shooting. He also reminds me too much of Samanic, tbh.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

Dunn has so much going for him, but in this day and age, how many more non-shooting threats can the Spurs afford to have on the roster? 58% from the line is getting into hack-a-Dunn territory.

His shot needs a lot of work. The release looks okay. When he catches and shoots, his base is really wide, he takes a deep knee bend before liftoff and brings the ball down to his waist. He doesn't always shoot at the top of his jump. The whole thing needs to be more compact. There's a lot of wasted motion in there.

I completely agree that his lack of offensive polish right now -- particularly his shooting -- will be determine his ceiling and fate in the NBA. That said, the Spurs haven't been struggling to score for the most part, they just make a lot of stupid mistakes on offense. With how Wemby has been playing lately, I just don't worry that much about the Spurs offense for the next 10+ years. Where the Spurs have been historically bad has been on defense, and that's particularly true on 3point defense. When I watch Dunn play in college, he can cover and entire section of the court and really compress the offensive spacing of the team he's playing because no one wants to go at him one on one. Pairing a guy like that with Wemby could make the Spurs an elite defensive team again, which I think is their biggest need.

[SOMA Spur]

^this. Plus I don't even think Risacher had that terrible of a game. Sure the stats weren't there, but you see some good transition flashes - dunks, alley-oop passes, exciting stuff. Also played through some tickytac calls from the refs to have a good defensive game. You can see the switchablity, POA defense. And most importantly, he turned it up last minute to shut down the opponent and get the win. Sure he got burned a couple times during the game, but everyone does, even Wemby last game.

[baseline bum]

Yeah, the guys in college and Europe are on teams trying to win their leagues.

The G League is basically a bunch of scrimmages.

That gives an additional metric -- winning -- by which to judge the non-G League guys. It also makes you wonder about guys who sign up to play where winning doesn't matter in the first place.

After seeing how Jalen Green and Scoot have looked in the NBA I want no part of G-League Ignite prospects. No thanks Buzelis, no thanks Holland unless the lotto balls have the Spurs drop hard and Sarr, Risacher, Williams, both Kentucky PGs, and Topic are off the board. Maybe take a swing with the Toronto pick if it conveys and everyone I mentioned is off the board then.

[Ariel]

Follow up on Ryan Dunn. So high on this kid.



If the Raptors' pick does not convey, I would draft him over any player not named Alexander Sarr. Admittedly, he hasn't had many offensive games like this, but just watch how his athleticism just pops out on tape.

Reasoning: Dunn looks like he could be one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA by his second or third year in the league. His defensive tape is unreal. I know the Spurs need a PG, but you have to take a look at the macro-level trends in the NBA. This is probably the most boring era for NBA fandom in the past 35+ years. The league is filled with stars, but the game has become so tilted toward offense that it almost looks scripted at times. Viewership is declining, and the NBA is going to have to do something to constrain NBA offenses sometime soon. In the meantime, the Spurs will have to contend with NBA offenses that routinely score in the high 130s. And, the league has some very exciting young wings that Wemby will have to contend with his entire career. Cooper Flag is going to be a monster. Anthony Edwards is only 22 years old. Tatum, Wagner, and Doncic are all going to be around for a while. Right now the NBA Elite perimeter defense is the league's most valuable currency, and in a draft this meh I think you take a stab finding your next Kawhi.

In terms of his offensive potential -- I think Ryan Dunn has all of the athletic tools he needs to be a very, very special player. He had a very late growth spurt and is 6 or 7 inches taller than when he committed to UVA. He has guard like quickness, and unreal hops (one of the reason he has so many blocks as a college 3). He has a really strong nose for offensive rebounds, and he runs the floor like a gazelle. Despite the growth spurt, he's very coordinated and fluid, and he is a very high IQ player. Developing his 3 point shot will be critical, but when I watch him shoot it looks like he has solid mechanics and decent form. I wonder if his growth spurt may have altered shot. In any event, shooting 35% from 3 will allow Dunn to attack closeouts with ferocity in the NBA. His above the rim potential is also elite given his tremendous positional size. Take a look at the video below to get a sense of him last year as a freshman. In his interviews he also sounds like a very humble, smart, and thoughtful kid.

LINK

I think drafting Dunn with the Spurs own pick (probably in the 1-7 range) would be a defeatist pick. Sure, he has all the tools to be a great defender, but when you're that bad of a shooter, how valuable can you be?. If you come to the conclusion that there's no player available that offers a better outlook than Dunn, you might as well shop the pick. I mean, is Dunn going to be a better defender than, say, Herb Jones? Because he's already a much better shooter and on a good contract, and I think the Pelicans would seriously consider moving him for the Spurs' own pick. Or whatever is the best player / pick the Spurs can get.
All in all, I'm not enamored with any player and I agree Sarr seems like the best floor/upside combo out there, but if Dunn is the best available, you either roll the dice on a higher upside prospect (Topic, Buzelis,etc) or get a young vet that has much of his strengths without his weaknesses. Not a fan of him as the top pick.

[baseline bum]

I completely agree that his lack of offensive polish right now -- particularly his shooting -- will be determine his ceiling and fate in the NBA. That said, the Spurs haven't been struggling to score for the most part, they just make a lot of stupid mistakes on offense. With how Wemby has been playing lately, I just don't worry that much about the Spurs offense for the next 10+ years. Where the Spurs have been historically bad has been on defense, and that's particularly true on 3point defense. When I watch Dunn play in college, he can cover and entire section of the court and really compress the offensive spacing of the team he's playing because no one wants to go at him one on one. Pairing a guy like that with Wemby could make the Spurs an elite defensive team again, which I think is their biggest need.

Spurs wouldn't have won those three les with Bruce Bowen shooting 24% from the three instead of the 35% to 45% he actually shot here. If Dunn can't do that he can't be the answer at the three. Dunn shooting the way he does now just ensures his man could be all over Wemby any time Dunn is on the floor.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

I think drafting Dunn with the Spurs own pick (probably in the 1-7 range) would be a defeatist pick. Sure, he has all the tools to be a great defender, but when you're that bad of a shooter, how valuable can you be?. If you come to the conclusion that there's no player available that offers a better outlook than Dunn, you might as well shop the pick. I mean, is Dunn going to be a better defender than, say, Herb Jones? Because he's already a much better shooter and on a good contract, and I think the Pelicans would seriously consider moving him for the Spurs' own pick. Or whatever is the best player / pick the Spurs can get.
All in all, I'm not enamored with any player and I agree Sarr seems like the best floor/upside combo out there, but if Dunn is the best available, you either roll the dice on a higher upside prospect (Topic, Buzelis,etc) or get a young vet that has much of his strengths without his weaknesses. Not a fan of him as the top pick.

I’ll put it this way. I think he can be a better defensive player than prime Kawhi. Not saying it’s going to happen, but the potential is there.

[Mr. Body]

I posted a page or two ago that Ryan Dunn is statistically superior to Sochan in many ways coming out of college. A lot of their stats track and Dunn has better advanced stats, although at different positions and Sochan was coming off the bench and was more of a facilitator. Jeremy was a bit better of a 3 pt shooter, although still bad, but got up a lot more shots. Dunn is a sop re, so we're not entirely comparing apples.

https://tankathon.com/players/compar...-jeremy-sochan

What sticks with me on Dunn is that he's already 21. If he hasn't fixed his shot or offensive deficiencies, that's not a good sign.

[rankingtear]

Follow up on Ryan Dunn. So high on this kid.



If the Raptors' pick does not convey, I would draft him over any player not named Alexander Sarr. Admittedly, he hasn't had many offensive games like this, but just watch how his athleticism just pops out on tape.

Reasoning: Dunn looks like he could be one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA by his second or third year in the league. His defensive tape is unreal. I know the Spurs need a PG, but you have to take a look at the macro-level trends in the NBA. This is probably the most boring era for NBA fandom in the past 35+ years. The league is filled with stars, but the game has become so tilted toward offense that it almost looks scripted at times. Viewership is declining, and the NBA is going to have to do something to constrain NBA offenses sometime soon. In the meantime, the Spurs will have to contend with NBA offenses that routinely score in the high 130s. And, the league has some very exciting young wings that Wemby will have to contend with his entire career. Cooper Flag is going to be a monster. Anthony Edwards is only 22 years old. Tatum, Wagner, and Doncic are all going to be around for a while. Right now the NBA Elite perimeter defense is the league's most valuable currency, and in a draft this meh I think you take a stab finding your next Kawhi.

In terms of his offensive potential -- I think Ryan Dunn has all of the athletic tools he needs to be a very, very special player. He had a very late growth spurt and is 6 or 7 inches taller than when he committed to UVA. He has guard like quickness, and unreal hops (one of the reason he has so many blocks as a college 3). He has a really strong nose for offensive rebounds, and he runs the floor like a gazelle. Despite the growth spurt, he's very coordinated and fluid, and he is a very high IQ player. Developing his 3 point shot will be critical, but when I watch him shoot it looks like he has solid mechanics and decent form. I wonder if his growth spurt may have altered shot. In any event, shooting 35% from 3 will allow Dunn to attack closeouts with ferocity in the NBA. His above the rim potential is also elite given his tremendous positional size. Take a look at the video below to get a sense of him last year as a freshman. In his interviews he also sounds like a very humble, smart, and thoughtful kid.

LINK

That guy is a center.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

I posted a page or two ago that Ryan Dunn is statistically superior to Sochan in many ways coming out of college. A lot of their stats track and Dunn has better advanced stats, although at different positions and Sochan was coming off the bench and was more of a facilitator. Jeremy was a bit better of a 3 pt shooter, although still bad, but got up a lot more shots. Dunn is a sop re, so we're not entirely comparing apples.

https://tankathon.com/players/compar...-jeremy-sochan

What sticks with me on Dunn is that he's already 21. If he hasn't fixed his shot or offensive deficiencies, that's not a good sign.

Yep... Sochan is 4 months younger than Dunn.

Beyond the numbers, you could see Sochan's elevated IQ on offense even in his limited bench role. Dunn is a 3 and D guy with no 3. Mattisse Thybulle is shorter, but maybe another comp?

https://tankathon.com/players/compar...tisse-thybulle

[JPB]

^this. Plus I don't even think Risacher had that terrible of a game. Sure the stats weren't there, but you see some good transition flashes - dunks, alley-oop passes, exciting stuff. Also played through some tickytac calls from the refs to have a good defensive game. You can see the switchablity, POA defense. And most importantly, he turned it up last minute to shut down the opponent and get the win. Sure he got burned a couple times during the game, but everyone does, even Wemby last game.

And he's 18 playing vs. grown men. Incons ency is to be expected, speciallly at this time of the season where he also may be hitting some kind of rookie wall in his first real season with big minutes. Using one off night to judge a 18 prospect is like using YT highlights, pointless without some perspective. That's why you judge them over a season and Risacher is having a of a season. People had doubts about Victor's physiciality too and it's all about potential anyway.

that's like watching Chet last two games, before his very last, where had 4 and 9pt nights on terrible shooting, and saying this kid can't play in the NBA.

[CorrectCrusader]

If you think that RIsacher game was a "bad game" you haven't watched the gleague prospects at all this year. Risacher was still valuable when not scoring.

[JPB]

If you think that RIsacher game was a "bad game" you haven't watched the gleague prospects at all this year. Risacher was still valuable when not scoring.

He's an all around/facilitator guy who can impact the game on different ways, indeed.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

I posted a page or two ago that Ryan Dunn is statistically superior to Sochan in many ways coming out of college. A lot of their stats track and Dunn has better advanced stats, although at different positions and Sochan was coming off the bench and was more of a facilitator. Jeremy was a bit better of a 3 pt shooter, although still bad, but got up a lot more shots. Dunn is a sop re, so we're not entirely comparing apples.

https://tankathon.com/players/compar...-jeremy-sochan

What sticks with me on Dunn is that he's already 21. If he hasn't fixed his shot or offensive deficiencies, that's not a good sign.

I hate that we're in a place where 21 is considered old for an NBA prospect. David Robinson had a similar growth spurt and took a few extra years to develop -- things turned out pretty well for him. The same can be said for Tim Duncan, Dennis Rodman, Scottie Pippen, and a whole list of HOF players over the years. Late bloomers happen, and 21 is still super young.

I'm also way more inclined to take a bet on a superstar college defender rounding out his offensive game than I am hopeful or optimistic that a poor defending, offensively talented college/ European player will ever round out his defensive game. For one thing, being elite on defense is not solely about measurables -- showing out defensively means that the player is a hard worker with elite compe iveness because those traits are needed to play elite level defense in college or European pro leagues. Being an elite defensive player also requires the player to be an elite run/jump athlete with very good lateral quickness. Those are very good attributes for players to build off with NBA coaching, and you can get a very good sense of a player's work ethic and coach-ability based on the way he plays defense. Those are guys that can typically work their way into developing a decent, reliable shot, which is why the Spurs have had so much success with exactly this prototype. George Hill, Kawhi Leonard, Derrick White, Dejounte Murray, Devin Vessel, Jeremy Sochan, and Kyle Anderson were all Spurs players that started out as pretty limited offensive players with terrific defensive abilities. It's a proven strength of the program to develop this archetype of player at this point.

Bottom line is this -- the kid can barely drink and he is dominating the ACC defensively in a way that very few wings could even dream of. He's one of the best defensive players in NCAA history, only behind David Robinson and a few other HOF centers from the 80s/90s. Just watch him play.

[Mr. Body]

We're living in a world where an exceptional defender who is already 21 years old cannot play for the Pistons because he can't shoot -- Ausar Thompson.

[DAF86]

Yeah, hard pass on Dunn. Those type of players become unplayable in the playoffs.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

We're living in a world where an exceptional defender who is already 21 years old cannot play for the Pistons because he can't shoot -- Ausar Thompson.

He's a rookie in a really bad environment playing for a horrible organization. I wouldn't bet that the story is already written about Thompson.

The guy I was super high on last year, Jarace Walker, has barely played but when he has he's shown out. I thought last year that there was a chance for Walker to end up being the second best player in the draft because I thought he could play wing in the NBA. Everyone else thought he was an undersized four. He's shooting the ball well in the time he's on the floor for the Pacers, and he looks like a very good athlete. I'm not positive that he'll end up a superstar, but I am very confident that Walker is going to be a good and valuable player in the NBA.

[spurraider21]

Dunn is really fun to watch, but its clear that he's a small big, and not a big wing. that doesnt necessarily mean he'll be bad. Bam is 6'9 and one of the best defensive centers in the game. Horford is 6'9

[Mr. Body]

He's a rookie in a really bad environment playing for a horrible organization. I wouldn't bet that the story is already written about Thompson.

The guy I was super high on last year, Jarace Walker, has barely played but when he has he's shown out. I thought last year that there was a chance for Walker to end up being the second best player in the draft because I thought he could play wing in the NBA. Everyone else thought he was an undersized four. He's shooting the ball well in the time he's on the floor for the Pacers, and he looks like a very good athlete. I'm not positive that he'll end up a superstar, but I am very confident that Walker is going to be a good and valuable player in the NBA.

Definitely not written for Ausar, but goes to the point I'd make for Dunn. I would draft him later in the lottery very happily. There's a chance he outplays Buzelis, Risacher, or any other SF, but it's hard to invest a very high pick on that kind of deficit. I'm sure the Spurs would check him out and see.

[Russ]

Get your popcorn out for tomorrow (Saturday 2/3) -- Tennessee vs Kentucky.

Three guys who are sure first rounders (possibly all in the lottery) -- Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard and Dalton Knecht (plus a few more Kentucky guys likely to go 1st-2nd Round).

Dillingham and Sheppard are young and have the Kentucky pedigree. Knecht (Tennessee) is old and just keeps exceeding expectations.

I normally favor the young flashy guys but it's hard to get rid of Knecht the more you see him. He's like a higher-end Derrick White. They both rose up from directional schools in Colorado to the big time and just kept succeeding. Like that horse you bet on in a claimer race whose moving up in class but just keeps beating the higher-priced ponies. Knecht affects the game every minute he's on the court. You have to watch the game in real time to get that. He's not just a highlight reel like so many of our favorites.

Anyway, it's two top ten teams who both really want to win the game, not just show themselves for the scouts.

Tomorrow at 7:30 (SA time) on ESPN. Bon Appe !

[TD 21]

1. The Spurs are 27th on offense and 24th on defense and can't afford to expend more significant assets/roles on more limited/non shooters.

2. Dunn looks like he'll be able to guard 1-4, but he ostensibly needs to be a de facto 5 on offense.

3. Murray, White and Walker IV all figured out how to shoot 5 minutes after leaving here. Anderson never did, but he improved some too.

[Ariel]

We're living in a world where an exceptional defender who is already 21 years old cannot play for the Pistons because he can't shoot -- Ausar Thompson.

Definitely not written for Ausar, but goes to the point I'd make for Dunn. I would draft him later in the lottery very happily. There's a chance he outplays Buzelis, Risacher, or any other SF, but it's hard to invest a very high pick on that kind of deficit. I'm sure the Spurs would check him out and see.

I was going to bring up the same example. Ausar is an ELITE defender, rebounder, athlete, and is more skilled than Dunn, but his total lack of a jump shot is killing his chances. If Toronto's pick comes up at 10 then maybe, but I'd hope for something else with the Spurs own pick.

[Mr. Body]

Wow, Amen and Ausar are combined for 17/110 from three this year.

[BackHome]

When you swing for a home run and strike out badly