We might be better off getting Toronto in the 10-14 range next season than 7-8 this year.
We are tanking now. The problem is, our team is better constructed when there's not another guy who's really a 3 or 4th option (Vassell) trying to do #2 stuff every night. This team WILL be better built top heavy with someone like Wemby. I think this small sample size at least somewhat correlates with that proposition.
Exactly and the logjam doesn't just overload developmentally it's financial too. I'd rather stagger that money hit over time than take up to 3 rookies at the same time. Because if 2025 is as loaded with talent as they say, getting 3 picks that year not only bogs down developmental resources but say 2 or all 3 are keepers and as good of players as they're projected to be then it's 3 paydays all at the same time since they were all rookies together all 3 contracts will coincide. SA can't afford to pay and loses talent having to let someone walk.
TOR could tank next year and get firmly nestled into the bottom 3 with you getting closer to 2 second round picks and you'll wish you landed the #7 in 2024
TOR could be good next year and convey like a #15-20 and you'll wish you landed the #7 in 2024
I think I'd rather just get TOR to convey in 24 in the argument for balancing the roster and development resources vs talent disparity between 24 and 25 drafts.
Even if you're trading some of these picks and not selecting players for SA with them the clock is ticking and other teams know the FRP is about to turn into a pumpkin of two second round picks. That devalues the trade piece and I'd rather just lock in the asset as a lottery pick vs two seconds is a world of difference in value either as a trade asset or SA selecting two lottery picks in 24 for themselves at the benefit of balancing a possible up to four 25 FRPs (SA, CHI, TOR, CHA) at the potential expense of a considerable gulf in talent.
that's what happened to OKC with KD/Russ and Harden.
Anywyay, Wemby will be in year 3 after the 2025 draft. You don't want to put another 3 rookies (plus the one from this year) to develop in his legs. The priority is VIC's development not all the Branhams, Wesleys, Sochans or whoever they could draft in the next 2 years. Everything has to be centered and tought around Wemby.
Hopefully, spurs will use those picks to build a more compe ive team.
We want the TOR first round pick this year because we may never get it otherwise. Anything else is just overthinking or rationalizing.
I think you are missing the unprotected ATL pick in 25 as well.
They played without four starters for like 15 games and they loose all so yes i excpect them to be better. When they have siakam and og they were a play in team and i think with barret, quickley, olynik...they still the same.
If it doesn't convey this year (and maybe even if it does), we should trade the pick for a proven commodity. Now, whether the #7 pick in this draft or an unknown potential pick has more value... I'm not sure. Toronto's tankability makes it difficult to say.
Probably right on the range of 7-9 not being that bad this year, as a comparison. As you said, bad drafts are normally sold that way as the top is uncertain / weak, which definitely seems the case this year.
Based on history, a #7 pick should be worth about 7 WAR over 4 seasons (I was lazy and just looked here: nba-draft-expectations). I think I'd be more confident in Sheppard reaching that than anyone 7-9 last year, though I think last years crop is more likely to hugely exceed that value (and as big rangy wings / 4's, probably have more value around the league in terms of responding to playoff matchups).
The stack of incoming 2025 picks is I think the best reason for wanting it to convey this year, particularly as there's no upside in terms of reduced protections. Also, in the category of I'm dumb and others are smart - Masai has been a really good drafter, and Toronto's behaviour definitely looks like they want the pick - If Masai wants to keep it this year, I think the Spurs will want it to convey.
If you have 4 or 5 players you like in the lottery, it's likely you'll see at least one of them with a conveyed Toronto pick. Like many here, it feels 'risky' to have it go into next year, given the Raptors' shakiness and propensity for injury. Teams will really tip into tanking halfway through next year since the draft is considered pretty strong up top.
So, if my personal board includes Dillingham, Castle, Sarr, Buzelis, and Sheppard, then one will be available with the Spurs pick and at least one of them will be there with the second. I wouldn't be opposed to taking a rotation guy with that pick, either. The team could use a beefy defender, so if Clingan is around that spot or even Filipowski, I'm not opposed to giving that role a shot, too.
You're over valuing the current roster.
Most of this roster will be replaced when the Spurs are a real contender.
Tell me the how I'm over valuing the current roster.
Thinking the current roster just needs development.
You can keep this current roster together for the next ten years and they still won't be a contender. Players need to be replaced with upgrades.
indeed
Yep, that is why I am still on the Tank command train all the way to 2025 draft. After that year I really think we will have two or three new starters who will be our building block for a bright future.
Not sure about that, Pop hasn't been that active on the sidelines than these last few games. imo the top4 of the draft is so weak that they don't care the position they end up and would prefer avoiding paying 8-10M for an average prospect.
If the pick conveys I won’t mind it being traded with salary filers for a long 3 point shooting PF, like Jabari smith jr. Not sure if it’s wishful thinking though.
He’d actually be perfect to pair with Victor. Doubt Houston does the deal, though.
If we could trade our #1 pick for Jabari then you do that 10 times out of 10.... He'd clearly be #1 in this draft..
Whoever you draft still has to be developed, so there's no way around that process.
The last 10 games are obvious what Toronto wanted to do. 1-9. They may win tonight against Washington but that’s it. I think they tank that game too. They likely lose out rest of the way. Memphis is two games ahead in loss column. It will take a miracle to even tie at this point. Toronto has nestled themselves into pick 6 intentionally.
They’re running,out of games to do it, and try as they might, other tanking teams aren’t losing to Washington. Make no mistake, they want 5, they’re just not going to get it now. 5 drops our pick odds into the 30s from 54% at position #6.
They’ll finish #6 and we will have slightly better odds than a coin flip of getting the pick. Got over a month till the lotto
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