2024 Draft Lottery Thread - Sunday May 12, 2024 8:30 ET

[Knoxxx]

I like Knecht, but I don’t see the Spurs drafting a shorter Doug McDermott when we already have Vassell at the 2 tbh. Could be wrong of course. A lot depends on what we do with that 4th pick. But I’d bet we go best wing available at 4 and then hopefully Dilly or Sheppard at 8.

The beauty of the “weak” draft is that leaves us with 8-10 players at least that nobody hardly thinks are much better than the other. But, these are a mixture of the top college and international players. The idea that they won’t be upgrades to our current roster because it’s a “weak” draft is silly.

[baseline bum]

ESPECIALLY if no PG goes in the top 3, then I really think taking a PG at 4 would be just bad game theory management. If the Top 3 go some order of Sarr/Risacher/Clingan, you really should take your top wing - you'll be assured to get one of Dilly/Topic/Sheppard/Castle at 8, and unless one of the teams behind you trades out you may just have your choice of all 4.

Billy Beane rolling in his grave with this scenario of favoring upside over current skill in both picks. Outside of Risacher I view the wings as high risk high reward guys while Dillingham and Sheppard should at the least be high quality 6th or 7th men and have a good shot of being decent starters. I have a hard time putting Topic in the same class as Dilly and Shep without a jumpshot nor an in between game and think he has a Shanghai Sharks level floor that isn't hard to see him falling to. Castle has a nice floor as a defensive ace and a wildly high ceiling if you can teach him a jumpshot but IMO has a lower expected value of production than Dilly or Shep. If Holland or Buzelis really impress in workouts maybe you have to take one of them #4 but all things being equal as things stand now I expect one of Dilly or Sheppard to be best player available at #4 and both fit an absolute pressing need.

[Dejounte]

The beauty of the “weak” draft is that leaves us with 8-10 players at least that nobody hardly thinks are much better than the other. But, these are a mixture of the top college and international players. The idea that they won’t be upgrades to our current roster because it’s a “weak” draft is silly.

True. The Spurs should finally get their shot creation upgrade they desperately needed all of this past season.

[DAF86]

ESPECIALLY if no PG goes in the top 3, then I really think taking a PG at 4 would be just bad game theory management. If the Top 3 go some order of Sarr/Risacher/Clingan, you really should take your top wing - you'll be assured to get one of Dilly/Topic/Sheppard/Castle at 8, and unless one of the teams behind you trades out you may just have your choice of all 4.

It doesn't work if your top wing is Risacher, tbh.

If the French is already taken, it all depends on how the Spurs see Buzellis. If they are high on him, then you take him (even if a guy like Dilly is higher on their board) because it seems like he's the Pistons target. Seeing how 5 to 7 aren't likely to draft a PG, Dillingham will likely be there at 8, still.

If they aren't high on Buzellis (or any other wing) you just draft your preferred PG and get whatever wing is available at 8 (Knecht, Williams, Holland, etc.).

[scott]

Billy Beane rolling in his grave with this scenario of favoring upside over current skill in both picks. Outside of Risacher I view the wings as high risk high reward guys while Dillingham and Sheppard should at the least be high quality 6th or 7th men and have a good shot of being decent starters. I have a hard time putting Topic in the same class as Dilly and Shep without a jumpshot nor an in between game and think he has a Shanghai Sharks level floor that isn't hard to see him falling to. Castle has a nice floor as a defensive ace and a wildly high ceiling if you can teach him a jumpshot but IMO has a lower expected value of production than Dilly or Shep. If Holland or Buzelis really impress in workouts maybe you have to take one of them #4 but all things being equal as things stand now I expect one of Dilly or Sheppard to be best player available at #4 and both fit an absolute pressing need.

You're higher on the guards than I am. I'm not interested in Topic or Sheppard, and I would rather have Matas or Holland over Dilly. Castle isn't too far behind Dilly, but I'm also not sure if he is really a guard or a wing.

That's just some context for my strategy. Billy Beane and I would be on the same page strategy-wise if we shared the same player evals. Also, why you trying to bury poor Billy alive?

[scott]

It doesn't work if your top wing is Risacher, tbh.

If the French is already taken, it all depends on how the Spurs see Buzellis. If they are high on him, then you take him (even if a guy like Dilly is higher on their board) because it seems like he's the Pistons target. Seeing how 5 to 7 aren't likely to draft a PG, Dillingham will likely be there at 8, still.

If they aren't high on Buzellis (or any other wing) you just draft your preferred PG and get whatever wing is available at 8 (Knecht, Williams, Holland, etc.).

Of course (and my original post should have said "top remaining wing", my apologies. But without knowing the Spurs board (and with all due respect to timvp, I don't think he has any insight either and is just stating his opinions on these players - but if we used timvp's board, he has Cody Williams at 4, in which case you take him and then wait for Dilly at 8), I am only going by mine.

[vy65]

With having a second pick I definitely want upside with the latter pick: Holland, Castle, Buzelis, Topic, or Williams. Could have sold me on Knecht if the Spurs were only getting pick #8 but at #4 they should be able to get some shooting with at least one of Risacher, Dillingham, or Sheppard almost certainly available.

Don’t like Knecht at all. He’s old, entirely duplicative of Vassell, doesn’t have the size to play the three, plays defense, and isn’t much of a playmaker. Yes, he can shoot. Yes, he is a 3 level scorer. But the team got torched on the wings defensively. As you point out, they should be able to get one of Holland/Buz/ZR at 4. And, that would leave Topic and/or Reed and/or Dilly there at 8. Unless you get stuck with Holland and Topic, you’re going to get a good amount of shooting with at least one of your picks. You may end up getting shooting and defense depending on how 1-3 go. The team needs size and length and defense on the wings. Knecht doesn’t give us enough of what we need.

[baseline bum]

But then again if they're really sure about a wing being the real deal, I'd rather have an all-star wing than an all-star point guard.
Combine and workouts will decide their choice. We can only hope they improve their recent draft record.

As I said already, I can't see Pistons, Hornets or Blazers picking Dillingham or even Topic.
If they're available at #4, they'll be available at #8.

Also, if these point guards don't impress them enough, just draft two wings and get DJ/Monk/Tyus.
I'm dreaming of a roster that has Wemby surrounded with long, 3-D wings. Tre and a veteran could do the job for one more year.
It's not like a rookie point guard will make the difference.

If you just think Dillingham sucks then don't draft him. At some point teams are going to take best player available, especially if you already took the wing they wanted. Dillingham lasting to #8 seems like a longshot unless he s the bed in workouts like Cam Whitmore.

[baseline bum]

Don’t like Knecht at all. He’s old, entirely duplicative of Vassell, doesn’t have the size to play the three, plays defense, and isn’t much of a playmaker. Yes, he can shoot. Yes, he is a 3 level scorer. But the team got torched on the wings defensively. As you point out, they should be able to get one of Holland/Buz/ZC at 4. And, that would leave Topic and/or Reed and/or Dilly there at 8. Unless you get stuck with Holland and Topic, you’re going to get a good amount of shooting with at least one of your picks. You may end up getting shooting and defense depending on how 1-3 go. The team needs size and length and defense on the wings. Knecht doesn’t give us enough of what we need.

Bolded part redundant after saying duplicative of Vassell tbh

[exstatic]

Don’t like Knecht at all. He’s old, entirely duplicative of Vassell, doesn’t have the size to play the three, plays defense, and isn’t much of a playmaker. Yes, he can shoot. Yes, he is a 3 level scorer. But the team got torched on the wings defensively. As you point out, they should be able to get one of Holland/Buz/ZC at 4. And, that would leave Topic and/or Reed and/or Dilly there at 8. Unless you get stuck with Holland and Topic, you’re going to get a good amount of shooting with at least one of your picks. You may end up getting shooting and defense depending on how 1-3 go. The team needs size and length and defense on the wings. Knecht doesn’t give us enough of what we need.

Dean would say to beware of older seniors who just blow up out of the blue. Probably fools gold,like that guy Duarte that Indy drafted out of Oregon a few years back who had a decent rookie year, and then fell off the map when teams developed a book on him.

[baseline bum]

You're higher on the guards than I am. I'm not interested in Topic or Sheppard, and I would rather have Matas or Holland over Dilly. Castle isn't too far behind Dilly, but I'm also not sure if he is really a guard or a wing.

That's just some context for my strategy. Billy Beane and I would be on the same page strategy-wise if we shared the same player evals. Also, why you trying to bury poor Billy alive?

[spurraider21]

If Buzelis can shoot good how come he doesn't shoot good?
billybeane.gif

[/spurraider21]

[Ariel]

OK, did a quick checkup on that and this is what I found:

Assuming ball sequences are sorted and assigned to teams according to seed (140 sequences starting from 1,2,3,4 to seed 1, and so on) then the first 3 balls drawn according to that tweet were consistent with the following sequences:


if that's the case, it's true that the Spurs had a winning combination but only 1 out of 11, that is 9,09% which is less than the 10.5% they started with, so chances actually were less than initially. Futhermore, Toronto had the same odds (more than they started with), so the Spurs could have just as easily seen that pick not convey. At the end of the day, Houston and Atlanta each had the best odds at 27.27% each, and they ended up with the pick.

Note that I did this quickly according to how it seemed reasonable they awarded the sequences (sorted by ball number and a lot of consecutive ones are assigned to each seed from 1 to 14, according to their pre-lottery odds). I can't guarantee this is correct, but it would seem logical.

[Russ]

Dean would say to beware of older seniors who just blow up out of the blue. Probably fools gold,like that guy Duarte that Indy drafted out of Oregon a few years back who had a decent rookie year, and then fell off the map when teams developed a book on him.

But there's always a Derrick White every once in a while.

[TekXX]

Dillingham is so small. I wasn't impressed with his last game in the tournament.

[vy65]

ATL: Sarr
WAS: Topic
HOU: ZR
SAS: Matas
DET: Reed
CHA: Castle
POR: Cody or Holland
SAS: Dilly

Figuring out what Houston does is the biggest question mark. Following that, whether DET/CHA/POR trade out and whether WAS opts for a pg or a big (Clingan) to fill in for the space left by Gafford are 2a/2b in open issues. But one of Matas and ZR should be there at 4. I like Matas because he gives you more playmaking on the wing compared to ZR. I think there are open questions about both’s shooting, so I’d err on a more dynamic player considering you want the opportunity to set Wemby up as much as possible.

With Wemby-Sochan-Matas, you have a great amount of size and length, along with a lot of defensive potential on the wings. I get a lot less trepidatious about taking a defensive liability like Dilly as your new point guard. His credentials as a shooter make me less concerned about Matas’ progression too. In some ways, I think Reed would be a better fit than Dilly with that sort of framework, but I don’t see him dropping to 8 given how ready he is to contribute now.

[Degoat]

Matas Buzelis scares me, gives me Samanic PTSD. I’d like to be wrong about him but of all the guys in the 1-8 range he would take the most convincing for me to jump on board with.

[vy65]

Vecenie’s report is that Matas is a high character/hard worker. I think he comes from a ball family, so I don’t share the Samanic concerns

[scott]

If you just think Dillingham sucks then don't draft him. At some point teams are going to take best player available, especially if you already took the wing they wanted. Dillingham lasting to #8 seems like a longshot unless he s the bed in workouts like Cam Whitmore.

TBH, outside of Sarr and Risacher, I could see any other player dropping to 8 (and those two guys have higher floors based mostly on hype at this point). That's the thing about this draft. Clingan could go anywhere from #1 - 9. Topic realistically could go #2 - 10/11. I see Dilly with the same range as Topic (though I definitely have him higher than Topic).

After Sarr and Risacher, IMO I think Sheppard probably has the highest draft floor, likely a range of #3-7.

I think you really like Dilly, which is why you think it's a longshot he falls to 8, but IMO it's really not. For this reason, I actually think this is going to be one of the most fun drafts we've had in awhile because it's so up in the air.

[scott]

Vecenie’s report is that Matas is a high character/hard worker. I think he comes from a ball family, so I don’t share the Samanic concerns

Choir boy Spurs fans think he has a bad at ude because of some comment he made to "BasketNews" about challenging Risacher to a one-on-one match up. For all we know, Matas knows Risacher and it was a joke... worst case scenario, Matas has balls, since when is that a bad thing?

Don't see Matas as a bad at ude player at all.

[spurraider21]

no way I'm spending the first pick on a guard especially an undersized one in a league full of them

Yeah all these great guards out there like Tre Jones, Blake Wesley, Devonte Graham, and Malaki Branham

[Ariel]

^ Adding to that, I wouldn't be shocked if some picks change hands at the top, especially Atlanta and Houiston. Also the Spurs could have a lot of options to trade up, down or out. That could completely turn around how the draft shapes up.

[vy65]

Choir boy Spurs fans think he has a bad at ude because of some comment he made to "BasketNews" about challenging Risacher to a one-on-one match up. For all we know, Matas knows Risacher and it was a joke... worst case scenario, Matas has balls, since when is that a bad thing?

Don't see Matas as a bad at ude player at all.

Chances are he won’t flash brain to female staffers either. Hard pass (pun intended).

[baseline bum]

TBH, outside of Sarr and Risacher, I could see any other player dropping to 8 (and those two guys have higher floors based mostly on hype at this point). That's the thing about this draft. Clingan could go anywhere from #1 - 9. Topic realistically could go #2 - 10/11. I see Dilly with the same range as Topic (though I definitely have him higher than Topic).

After Sarr and Risacher, IMO I think Sheppard probably has the highest draft floor, likely a range of #3-7.

I think you really like Dilly, which is why you think it's a longshot he falls to 8, but IMO it's really not. For this reason, I actually think this is going to be one of the most fun drafts we've had in awhile because it's so up in the air.

Every argument I see with Dillingham falling that far is based on no one taking him because they already have a PG. I don't buy that all these teams are going to pass on talent and him falling to #8 only makes sense it you think he's an overrated shooter, overrated ballhandler, and overrated attacker off the dribble. God I hope they don't get hung up on size again at the PG position like when they screwed the pooch on Primo's scrub ass.

[baseline bum]

Matas Buzelis scares me, gives me Samanic PTSD. I’d like to be wrong about him but of all the guys in the 1-8 range he would take the most convincing for me to jump on board with.

I don't see that at all in Buzelis. Samanic was just a lazy mother er.

[goliath]

Hopefully the spurs don’t play games with their picks. If Dilly is the bpa on their board at 4 just take him. Playing games and hoping no one at 5-7 needs a pg will just end up screwing us.