Draft Game Theory: Lotto Team Needs and Strategies

[scott]

Updated the original post to include information being discussed in multiple threads and around the internet.

[Dejounte]

Updated the original post to include information being discussed in multiple threads and around the internet.

doing the lord’s work!

By the way:

https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/202...re-interviews/

[scott]

doing the lord’s work!

By the way:

https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/202...re-interviews/

Good looking out! Interesting that they might feel Clingan can develop a 3pt shot. I have a hard time fully grasping what a long-term Rockets lineup looks like with Clingan in the start 5. Something like this below?

Amen
Green
Jabari
Sengun
Clingan

Lots of length there, could potentially be a defensive beast. Sengun has a decent stroke that kind of reminds me of Big Daddy Val, but he's still a career .300 3-point shooter. Amen, Sengun and Clingan in the starting 5 seems like a shooting disaster, especially since Green isn't exactly lights out himself and Jabari is still developing.

This is one of those "makes sense... but does it?" kind of ideas.

Castle doesn't make any sense to me... seems awfully redundant with Amen, unless the goal was to have 48 minutes of the same archetype playing? Number 3 pick seems rich for that.

Still feels like Houston's best move would be to consolidate some draft capital and some of the young wing talent they have and try to make a big move.

[baseline bum]

Good looking out! Interesting that they might feel Clingan can develop a 3pt shot. I have a hard time fully grasping what a long-term Rockets lineup looks like with Clingan in the start 5. Something like this below?

Amen
Green
Jabari
Sengun
Clingan

Lots of length there, could potentially be a defensive beast. Sengun has a decent stroke that kind of reminds me of Big Daddy Val, but he's still a career .300 3-point shooter. Amen, Sengun and Clingan in the starting 5 seems like a shooting disaster, especially since Green isn't exactly lights out himself and Jabari is still developing.

This is one of those "makes sense... but does it?" kind of ideas.

Castle doesn't make any sense to me... seems awfully redundant with Amen, unless the goal was to have 48 minutes of the same archetype playing? Number 3 pick seems rich for that.

Still feels like Houston's best move would be to consolidate some draft capital and some of the young wing talent they have and try to make a big move.

Feels like a smoke screen to get someone who could really use Clingan to offer more than they would initially to move up and get him.

[Ariel]

Hawks brass courtside watching Risacher today.

If he goes #1, that does shake things up a little bit. At that point I think the first major pivot point is with Houston, who I could see taking Sheppard or Buzelis, but also maybe Clingan Then the Spurs have a few choices to make. Here are some scenarios, using what I think the big board should look like (which is probably not reality, but the best I can do). There are some scenarios here where Detroit is really kind of ed, because I think they really desperately want one of the top 3 wings, but I have Sheppard as the backup plan for them. Maybe it's Castle or Williams though. I'm assuming POR will want Wing, but I don't know. In many cases they are left only with Williams to choose from and I'm not sure he fits that team. I could see them going Clingan as well. Don't see them taking Sheppard.

The way to read this chart: if you see a blank, then that pick is unchanged from the pick in that slot immediately to the left. I don't love the scenarios where we get Dilly and Sheppard, largely because as see those as risks that the Spurs do something stupid (like take Salaun).

	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Scenario 4	Scenario 5
ATL	Risacher
WAS	Sarr
HOU	Sheppard	Buzelis			Clingan
SA	Buzelis	Dillingham	Holland	Sheppard	Buzelis
DET	Holland	Holland	Sheppard	Holland	Holland
CHA	Castle	Castle	Castle	Castle	Castle
POR	Williams	Williams	Williams	Williams	Williams
SA	Dillingham	Sheppard	Dillingham	Dillingham	Dillingham

• I think Sarr and Risacher go top 2 in some combination, whomever Atlanta doesn't take probably Washington does.
• Houston is a wild card, I don't buy the Dillingham hype, he doesn't strike me as an Ime kind of PG (Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Fred VanVleet, etc). Probably Sheppard or Clingan make the most sense, but they could be tempted to trade down, especially for Clingan. If they like Sheppard, trading behind the Spurs should give them pause.
• Spurs probably need to pick a wing here, given the teams 5-7 wings have a smaller chance of getting to 8. I'd say Castle is probably the favorite, with Buzelis and Cody Williams being in play as well.
• Detroit at 5 is a tough one. Holland looks like a guy Troy Weaver would take, which is what got them in this predicament in the first place, so with the franchise head hunting for a new POBO I expect them to follow a more sensible approach. Cody Williams or even Sheppard (if available) make the most sense, but I think they go Buzelis who, despite his awful shooting numbers this season, is more defensible in terms of HS stats.
• Charlotte probably takes a wing/forward, with Miles Bridges possibly gone and pretty good shooting in Brandon Miller and Lamelo, Buzelis or Holland would make sense here.
• Portland is an enygma. They usually go for perceived upside, and here that would probably be Topic but they already are invested in Scoot, and developing 2 non shooting, ball dominant PGs is a challenge. They probably take whatever wing is available.
• Spurs at 8 should take very much into consideratio what they did at 4, if by some miracle Risacher made it to 4 then they'd have more leeway, if they went with Castle they you need a shooter and there aren't many left, probably whomever is left of Dillingham, Sheppard or Cody Williams.
• Memphis at 9 should go Clingan if available, else maybe whomever is left of Sheppard or Cody Williams.
• Utah at 10 should go for upside, probably Holland if he fell here, otherwise Salaun, Topic or Collier.
• Chicago at 11 is difficult, they don't seem like a very logical team in anything they do, but a Knecht, Edey or Salaun could make sense.
• OKC at 12 goes for big guys who project as shooters, probably Salaun or Filipowski make the most sense, unless for some miracle Cody Williams made it here.
• Sacramento at 13 should go for contribution, probably someone like Knecht, McCain, Devin Carter or Filipowski.
• In the last lottery spot, Portland takes whatever upside is left: maybe Topic if he slid due to injury, or Collier as another boom / bust insurance for Scoot.

This is a rough scenario that I could see happening. Did a couple lottery mocks at fanspo, focusing more on the other teams than the Spurs:

Mock 1:


Mock 2:

[scott]

Thanks Ariel, could definitely see both of those scenarios playing out and one thing I definitely agree with is that from 5-7 we're likely to see all the wings taken. Theoretically you could roll the dice and go Dillingham/Sheppard at 4, but only if you are happy with whatever is left of Castle/Buz/Holland/Williams or you like Knecht or Salaun (which would be very meh for me). With that said, in the possibility that two wings (Risacher + one other) go in the Top 3, then the heat will really be on the Spurs to take one at 4.

Interesting that you're slotting Castle as a wing, despite his comments about being a PG. I wonder if he would care much if he ended up a lead ball handling wing (though I'm not sure he is necessarily the right lead ball handler for our team).

[scott]

Here's a scenario I threw together to be a little different.

• Houston gets to move down and still gets their man plus some compensation
• Detroit gets their pick of wing rather than the Spurs left overs
• I'm theorizing that the Spurs view Castle as a PG and they don't love Holland or Williams here, and they see a diamond in the rough with Salaun (I would not like this)
• A run on 4s and 5s at the end of the lotto
• 

[tbdog]

What's with France making tall NBA players.

[CGD]

I’m really curious how the Spurs view Matas. I haven’t seen anything linking the two yet (mocks, workouts, etc).

Do they really pass on him if ZR and the 2 Cs go 1-3, and they think a PG they like will be there at 8?

[Mr. Body]

I’m really curious how the Spurs view Matas. I haven’t seen anything linking the two yet (mocks, workouts, etc).

Do they really pass on him if ZR and the 2 Cs go 1-3, and they think a PG they like will be there at 8?

I don't think we have any chatter from the organization whatsoever, other than indirectly by way of Wemby talking about his countrymen. It's just been fanbases surmising, and each sub/message board has its favorites. Two players that haven't been discussed much at all, that I've seen among r/nbaspurs or Pounding the Rock or here, are Buzelis and Topic.

[rjv]

Here's a scenario I threw together to be a little different.

• Houston gets to move down and still gets their man plus some compensation
• Detroit gets their pick of wing rather than the Spurs left overs
• I'm theorizing that the Spurs view Castle as a PG and they don't love Holland or Williams here, and they see a diamond in the rough with Salaun (I would not like this)
• A run on 4s and 5s at the end of the lotto
• 

i can totally see this happening on draft night.

[scott]

The more I think of it, the more a DET/HOU swap seems to make sense to me. In fact, for Houston it make sense to make a series of moves down before consolidating assets and moving out altogether and trading for an established name.

[K...]

why would det need to trade up to get buzelis? scared the spurs might take him? i haven't seen buszelis mocked that high

[scott]

why would det need to trade up to get buzelis? scared the spurs might take him? i haven't seen buszelis mocked that high

It would be based solely on having the ability to take any wing they wanted, before the Spurs. If DET wants Buzelis and don't think the Spurs will take him - then there is no need to do this deal. But if the Spurs are a perceived risk, then this makes a lot of sense and probably won't cost much.

[CGD]

The more I think of it, the more a DET/HOU swap seems to make sense to me. In fact, for Houston it make sense to make a series of moves down before consolidating assets and moving out altogether and trading for an established name.

I think this could happen is ZR is that at 3. I suspect a number of teams would call if that were the case, not just DET. Potentially playoff teams looking for plug and play depth.

Houston probably would do it for the right veteran too. For example, not sure if the Middleton interest is fully gone, but that could be a good swap to start a small reboot in MIL. Or 3/Green/Eason for Mitc .

[Ariel]

The more I think of it, the more a DET/HOU swap seems to make sense to me. In fact, for Houston it make sense to make a series of moves down before consolidating assets and moving out altogether and trading for an established name.

I think Detroit only trades up if Risacher is at 3, otherwise they can just take the next available wing (Buzelis, Cody Williams), shooter (Sheppard, and move on from Ivey) or rim protector (Duren is vastly overrated and leaves a lot to be desired on defense, Clingan would be an immediate upgrade).