2024 NBA Draft Thread

[exstatic]

But... Salaun shoots .316 from deep. How is that a stretch four? Tankathon lists his good qualities as... ... ... ... ... draft age.

That's it.

I get people here have a hate boner about Sochan with the whole PG thing I guess, but Salaun is nowhere near able to contribute the way Sochan does. He's just bad at everything.

TaT also projects his NBA 3G% at 36%.

[spurraider21]

I'm just repeating what GMs told Rusillo. That this draft is like chopping the first 8-10 picks off a normal NBA draft.

i dont buy it. you really think Coulibably goes #1 overall in this draft? Jarace Walker? Taylor Hendricks?

[spurraider21]

TaT also projects his NBA 3G% at 36%.

how accurate are their projections, historically? dont they just plug in the 3pt%, ft%, and volume into some formula and spit something out?

[exstatic]

What makes Salaun any different than Kevin Knox? He was 6-9 in shoes, 7 foot wingspan, 18 on draft night, played real compe ion at Kentucky so he had the potential for the post Kentucky bounce

Scored 15 a game and shot 34% from 3 on 4.5 attempts, great dunks and threes highlights ... But just couldn't play basketball

I haven't watched the full games myself. But I will if they're on YouTube or NBA league pass and I'll be looking for something I heard in a draft podcast breakdown of Salaun (might have been No Ceilings): and that was that in between the dunks and threes seen in highlights where the rest of basketball happens that he was clueless and didn't know what was going on.

Very skeptical for now but need to watch games for myself

For the most part, UK wings don’t shine in the NBA, only their guards and bigs. I would also expect someone from Europe to, you know, understand how to play basketball better than some Calipari show pony.

[Mr. Body]

I think it was Mr. Body that suggested that some guys from this year's draft would start to be drafted around 6 in last year's draft (meaning the Top 5 last year would all go Top 5 this year), and I think that seems about right. With that said, I don't think last year was that great of a draft either - it just had a few guys at the top (and especially Wemby) that stood out. If you take out the top 5 last year, it's probably on par with this year's.

In retrospect, Scoot was heavily overrated. He has talent, but was marked up hugely. The Thompsons have a lot of promise, but they'd be getting hammered this year if they were individuals and not hyped.

The 2023 draft had the 'generational' moniker slapped on it well before the draft cycle even started. But if Scoot Henderson was Sterling Henderson and we had Bob Thompson and some other guy Ricky Thompson, things might have been different.

This draft has been slammed for a long time. It started with Matas, Holland, Collier, those dudes high. Once they tanked, everyone threw up their hands and decided they all sucked. (But I agree, they kind of suck overall.)

[Mr. Body]

What makes Salaun any different than Kevin Knox? He was 6-9 in shoes, 7 foot wingspan, 18 on draft night, played real compe ion at Kentucky so he had the potential for the post Kentucky bounce

Scored 15 a game and shot 34% from 3 on 4.5 attempts, great dunks and threes highlights ... But just couldn't play basketball

I haven't watched the full games myself. But I will if they're on YouTube or NBA league pass and I'll be looking for something I heard in a draft podcast breakdown of Salaun (might have been No Ceilings): and that was that in between the dunks and threes seen in highlights where the rest of basketball happens that he was clueless and didn't know what was going on.

Very skeptical for now but need to watch games for myself

Great question. Kevin Knox had really, really poor BB IQ.

I don't know that Salaun has great BB IQ. You can work as hard as you want, have a great body and individual skills, but putting it together may be beyond some.

[Leetonidas]

Personally i think the whole weak draft/strong draft talk is kinda nonsense anyway. Every single year we see busts taken in the top 10 while guys taken in the mid teens or late first end up being better than a lot of the guys taken in the lottery. It really is a crapshoot. People talked about how 2020 was a weak draft which is obviously not true 4 years in.

[Dejounte]

how accurate are their projections, historically? dont they just plug in the 3pt%, ft%, and volume into some formula and spit something out?

Don’t expect ex to question TaT’s methodologies or past history… it’s his holy bible

[exstatic]

Ironic coming from you, the guy who distorts things or just flat out makes them up, to fit his POV.

I provided Sochan's monthly 3P% splits above. They're just facts. You're welcome to believe he is an up and coming 3P threat if you please.

What a comeback! You do it too!

So, I won’t hear any more mess about this from you since “you do it too”?

[BacktoBasics]

That's not really what happened. Sochan had a strong November and January, then reverted to his mean, especially after the ASB.

October - 25.0
%November - 46.7%
December - 32.5%
January - 37.5%
February - 19.4%
March - 22.8%
April - DNP

Thanks. When did the experiment end? I feel like that coincided with an improvement in shooting. Nonetheless he still finished the season better than last year.

I’m not sour on his progress.

[exstatic]

Don’t expect ex to question TaT’s methodologies or past history… it’s his holy bible

Honestly, I have no idea how they calculate the projected 3G% although it’s probably based to some extent on FT%, and TaT is just a tool, not the Bible. It’s probably the best free analysis mock left, but it has it’s idiosyncrasies.

[SpursBills]

Better yet, just give both 4 and 8 for Dejounte.

If people here say no to that, I want to hear who in this draft they think will reach Dejounte’s level. This will be good.

I'm probably just drunk right now, but I think there's a decent chance that Sheppard can develop into a player just impactful as Dejounte Murray.

EDIT:
More impactful than Dejounte Murray

[vander]

Feels like a lot of these debates are going in circles. None of these dudes are day one contributors. No matter who we pick, they're gonna be a 2-4 yr project due to their limitations on one side of the floor. Expecting a rookie from this year's draft class to make and immediate impact is setting yourself up for disappointment.

People may not wanna hear it, but our patience will be tested next year. The only way this team makes a substantial leap is if multiple players on roster make a leap or if we add NBA proven talent via FA/Trade.

I think either of the Kentuckey guards will be good by year 2

[Darkwaters]

I'm hardly an expert on this stuff, but Salaun is a guy that has really turned my head. Obviously he's a substantial project - probably two full years away. But he's got the tools to be a devilish two-way player with the size to guard 3 or 4 positions. Plus the fact that he's friends with Victor is certainly a huge positive. It's never too early to prevent the next Orlando from swiping your coveted franchise player.

As I look at it now here is how I want it to fall out:

4th Pick: Stephon Castle
- I love this guy's game and think he can develop his 3 point shot. And I'm bought in on giving him a chance to be our PG of the future with a floor as a solid off-ball defender. At this point he's my clear #4 pick.

8th Pick: Tidjan Salaun or Cody Williams
- My thought process here is with Castle being closer to a "sure thing" this is a great pick to swing for the fences. I think either of these guys would be that kind of swing.

Variables:
- If Castle is gone at 4 there is a good chance that Risacher fell. I'm not as high on him as some, but I could see the Spurs taking him. Even with Castle AND Riasacher there they might still take the Frenchman.

- If Rob Dillingham is available at 8 he's another guy that might be too interesting to pass on. Regardless of who they take at 4. I have serious concerns about his size and defense but as a firecracker off the bench he could have a long career. And if he reaches his upside he might be able to start at PG.

[Mr. Body]

I've heard Risacher is more of a Star Trek fan so, despite some outward pleasantries, him and Victor don't get along.

[BackHome]

I'm hardly an expert on this stuff, but Salaun is a guy that has really turned my head. Obviously he's a substantial project - probably two full years away. But he's got the tools to be a devilish two-way player with the size to guard 3 or 4 positions. Plus the fact that he's friends with Victor is certainly a huge positive. It's never too early to prevent the next Orlando from swiping your coveted franchise player.

As I look at it now here is how I want it to fall out:

4th Pick: Stephon Castle
- I love this guy's game and think he can develop his 3 point shot. And I'm bought in on giving him a chance to be our PG of the future with a floor as a solid off-ball defender. At this point he's my clear #4 pick.

8th Pick: Tidjan Salaun or Cody Williams
- My thought process here is with Castle being closer to a "sure thing" this is a great pick to swing for the fences. I think either of these guys would be that kind of swing.

Variables:
- If Castle is gone at 4 there is a good chance that Risacher fell. I'm not as high on him as some, but I could see the Spurs taking him. Even with Castle AND Riasacher there they might still take the Frenchman.

- If Rob Dillingham is available at 8 he's another guy that might be too interesting to pass on. Regardless of who they take at 4. I have serious concerns about his size and defense but as a firecracker off the bench he could have a long career. And if he reaches his upside he might be able to start at PG.

Yeah, I am all over the draft boards but have been looking at Cody Williams before he got hurt and I am kind of liking him again. Yeah, he is not that fast or explosive, but he is very long with that 7'0 reach really helps him on defense in contesting/steals/blocks. To me Cody is more of a SF, and Saluan is a pure PF who could maybe play small ball Center.

[SpursBills]

Also, for the growing number of Devin Carter stans, this is like catnip:

https://theswishtheory.com/2024-nba-...ll-underrated/

[Darkwaters]

I've heard Risacher is more of a Star Trek fan so, despite some outward pleasantries, him and Victor don't get along.

I wish Victor would just live long and prosper!

[scott]

Thanks. When did the experiment end? I feel like that coincided with an improvement in shooting. Nonetheless he still finished the season better than last year.

I’m not sour on his progress.

Have heard the Point Sochan experiment referred to as the first 18 games of the season (game 18 would have been the 11/30 loss to ATL), but Vassell got hurt in Game 11, at which time Champagnie was inserted for him, and then after Game 14, Branham was starting for Champ. I remember we went through a Point Branham phase as well, so you can make the case that Point Sochan ended after 14 games, which would have been 11/22.

Either way, Shochan's hot shooting month of November actually coincided with his playing PG, then dropped off a little, and then fell off a cliff after the ASB.

Edit: here are the starting lineups by game if you are interested: https://www.basketball-reference.com...024_start.html

[baseline bum]

i dont buy it. you really think Coulibably goes #1 overall in this draft? Jarace Walker? Taylor Hendricks?

Maybe on Jarace Walker. Probably not on the other two though. Maybe Rusillo asked BWrong

[Ariel]

Great question. Kevin Knox had really, really poor BB IQ.

I don't know that Salaun has great BB IQ. You can work as hard as you want, have a great body and individual skills, but putting it together may be beyond some.

But thing is, Salaun DOESN'T have great individual skills, none that I can think of. His finishing is atrocious for a guy his size, and moves like he's still trying to figure out how his body works. A realistic path towards success in the NBA for him, is IMO as a fairly limited 3&D stretch 4.

If he becomes an elite catch and shoot guy, a physical beast on defense and a madman on the boards, you can still live with the rest of his game being rough. But again, you have to buy 100% into his funky shot reaching elite level, testing off the charts athletically, and being a super smart and hard working kid. Even then, it's a long way to get there and far from certain he ever does, which is why I'm not enthused with the idea of taking him at 8.

[BacktoBasics]

Have heard the Point Sochan experiment referred to as the first 18 games of the season (game 18 would have been the 11/30 loss to ATL), but Vassell got hurt in Game 11, at which time Champagnie was inserted for him, and then after Game 14, Branham was starting for Champ. I remember we went through a Point Branham phase as well, so you can make the case that Point Sochan ended after 14 games, which would have been 11/22.

Either way, Shochan's hot shooting month of November actually coincided with his playing PG, then dropped off a little, and then fell off a cliff after the ASB.

Edit: here are the starting lineups by game if you are interested: https://www.basketball-reference.com...024_start.html

I’ll stand corrected on dates and timing etc. As much as I cringed through the experiment and really the whole season my takeaway with Sochan is that there were many instances where that point mentality shined through and there seemed to be a factor of growth as an overall player that you could directly attribute to those hardships. I never believed he was going to be a future PG.

I am fully expecting a more balanced upcoming season with less wonky-ness. Despite what will be two highly scrutinized rookies.

I’m not a Sochan apologist but I’m also not a hater. He is a great intangibles type of guy who can close games from time to time. He’s a plug, can be a 3rd 4th or 2nd guy on any given night. Just not that guy every night.

[scott]

I’ll stand corrected on dates and timing etc. As much as I cringed through the experiment and really the whole season my takeaway with Sochan is that there were many instances where that point mentality shined through and there seemed to be a factor of growth as an overall player that you could directly attribute to those hardships. I never believed he was going to be a future PG.

I am fully expecting a more balanced upcoming season with less wonky-ness. Despite what will be two highly scrutinized rookies.

I’m not a Sochan apologist but I’m also not a hater. He is a great intangibles type of guy who can close games from time to time. He’s a plug, can be a 3rd 4th or 2nd guy on any given night. Just not that guy every night.

I'm not overly concerned about Sochan at this point - there are more important immediate gaps to fill, and I think he can be a useful player for us. I just don't have much faith in his development as a reliable 3P shooter.

[ace3g]

[TrainOfThought5]

On a side note, Just wanted to know, are we writing off Malaki Branham as a PG? I thought the experience with him at that position wasn't that bad and showed some glimpses...

we’re ready to surround Wemby with Real High end talent now.