Hi everyone, I posted this in another thread but thought maybe this could be useful (and it's certainly subject to debate). I wanted to create a pick trade value chart based on this one from Pelton in 2018:
Of course, every draft is unique and value charts like this are not static in time. For example, last year, pick #1 would have been worth astronomically higher, perhaps even scoring something like 20,000 points (meaning you'd have to really trade the farm to get up to Pick #1, not just #2 and #21, like the 2018 chart implies.
Given this is a flat draft, and we have an "anonymous GM" saying that there are 8 guys who can go in the Top 5, the values in the Top 8-10 should be relatively flatter. This is also a weak draft at the top, so the high end of scores should be lower.
With that said, I built my own value chart. This is all debatable and in fact I'm looking forward to your comments on how the values could be adjusted to refine this chart. Then it can be a useful tool for folks to objectively value trade ideas ahead of the draft (since we throw out ideas about moving to #2, or back to #7 and #14 a lot).
Some notes on valuations from commonly discussed ideas are below. Note, I did not build this value chart with any of these trade ideas in mind. I built what I think the values should be and THEN I evaluated the commonly discussed trade ideas.
- To get up to #2, or even to #1, 4+35 is roughly fair value. Maybe a future SRP would be needed to sweeten it a little bit (say a 2027 unprotected SRP).
- 4 for 7+14 would be an extreme value by my estimation and Portland should not be willing to do this.
I think I could probably use a little refining in the pick 9-14 range. I really tightened up the values from 2-8 while lowering the top end of #1, and then at #15 onward my chart equals Pelton's from 2018.
Trading the 4 and 8 for 2 is a nonstarter. Givony should be put on mute for the rest of the day cycle for that one.
An important variable is that the current draft is almost always valued higher than picks in future rounds, all else equal. Gms would generally want to draft now.
My interest is more in what moving to 6 from 8 might cost. Or if a team wants to leap over Memphis to get Clingan.
Don't get the Clingan hype. In todays basketball where you need a modern big who can stretch the floor some...not sure what he is going to do for a team.
As far as picks go I think that is mostly dependent on the team you are trading with. The worst they are or you anticipate them to be the faster you want the picks. The better they are right now then the later you want the picks.
I sure that part of the White trade was contingent on that other 1st we got from him being in 2028 as opposed to 2025, cause Boston still projects to be really good in 2025. 2028...who knows how that team looks.
I'm not entirely sure how you could build a point system around draft picks because teams are in different life cycle stages and thus value different things.
The Hawks are trying to win right now so they are just about locked into drafting Sarr or Risacher, vs a team like the Spurs who are still in the baby steps of their rebuild and could take a flyer on a player.
I feel like if the Hawks got a good haul of veteran players who could help them for the number 1 pick they would do that trade, because they want to win now, vs the Spurs would not do that trade, cause they don't care about winning now.
Chart completely over values picks outside the top 15. They Spurs could easily move up from 4 to 1 by offering both second rounders which would be a overpay according to this chart. Picks beyond top 20 have little value on average and most guys taken are roster cloggers more than anything.
100%. I've not done the work to try and estimate what future years picks might be worth, but I'd say that the value drop is at least 50%, both for the time value of the pick and the uncertainty (even if you think a team is going to be the worst in the league, that pick may still only be #5, for example). Then there is the matter of draft class quality, which again is kind of a crap shoot especially as you go further out in the future because it's not like anyone has an accurate read on how a bunch of kids who are currently 13 or 14 are going to end up being.
So with that said, my initial guess on the value of future FRPs, would look something like this, with the caveat that we'll value a typical #1 pick at 4000 pts. This isn't not super scientific, but just a quick estimate.
Expected Pick Range Year+1 Year+2 Year+3 Year+4 1-10 2000 1500 1000 750 11-20 1000 750 500 375 21-30 500 375 250 185
The factors the drive reduced value of future picks:
- Time value of picks. A pick today is worth more than an equivalent pick in the future.
- Uncertainty of position. You can estimate how good a team will be in the future, but that comes with uncertainty and because of the way the lottery works and the uncertainty of all the other teams in the league, the best you can do is guess at a pick range you'll eventually end up at. The further you go out into the future, the higher the uncertainty is. A lotto team now may be a late 20s pick in 4 years.
- Uncertainty of draft quality. This I believe will have the lowest impact on value, as it's the hardest to predict and probably is only relevant at the top of the draft.
I generally agree, but I didn't mess with Pelton's values after the lottery. IMO there should probably be a steeper drop off after 20 or so, and then another one probably after 40. I do think early SRPs carry some significant value both because it's an opportunity for teams to snatch up those players who drop to the second round but a certain team may have had a higher grade on, and because of the new CBA which creates some value for SRPs.
With the rookie salary scale on first round picks you could argue that picks in 33-40 range are more valuable than picks in 27-32 range.
Cool thread - while it’s hard to know values and what teams want it seems clear this draft is both viewed as flatter and thus should take less to move up if you want. So if Spurs feel strongly they should go ahead and move around as it will never be cheaper to do so. Conversely, if a team is willing to overpay to move up, go for it (like 4 for 7 + 14)
You mean 31-40 and 27-30? #31 and 32 are second rounders.
Your point stands anyway, especially for second apron teams.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
