Who are we tanking for?

[benefactor]

Well if 15 years ago you were in HS sure.

You are behaving like a clique. I assume this kori is an undesirable of the clique's history.

People act like cowards too.

No he's very poor at trolling. Just like you.

[vy65]

I’m not sure I can explain why two tickets give you 2/25M odds if you don’t already understand it. Yes, each ticket has 1/25M odds, but you have two of them. Are you really thinking that if you somehow bought every number combination that your odds of winning would still be 1/25M?

I feel like Neil Degrasse Tyson trying to explain to Terence Howard that 1X1 does not in fact equal 2.

It's the same odds no matter the number of times you try. They don't add up. They reset each time you roll the proverbial dice. The spurs won't get one, 40% shot of a 1-4 pick. They get two shots at ~20% with the same odds resetting each try.

So really, this is like Terrence Howard quoting Feynman to explain why NDT was wrong. "Nuh uh" doesn't cut it.

[benefactor]

I mean come on. You're using a thinly veiled disguise in basketball takes. None of us are stupid. Well except you.

[benefactor]

I mean come on. You're using a thinly veiled disguise in basketball takes. None of us are stupid. Well except you.

And Mr. Body

[Wilt Chamberlain]

I mean come on. You're using a thinly veiled disguise in basketball takes. None of us are stupid. Well except you.

So I'm a troll then.

You are still acting like a clique in your actions. Your clique responds to uncertainty with cowardice in their actions.

[spurraider21]

i miss midnightpulp and HarlemHeat37 tbh

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Now the clique reassures each other.

[buttsR4rebounding]

link?

It was in a Windhorst post. I didn’t save it.

[vy65]

I’m not sure I can explain why two tickets give you 2/25M odds if you don’t already understand it. Yes, each ticket has 1/25M odds, but you have two of them. Are you really thinking that if you somehow bought every number combination that your odds of winning would still be 1/25M?

I feel like Neil Degrasse Tyson trying to explain to Terence Howard that 1X1 does not in fact equal 2.

Hey Neil. So you’re saying the odds add up? So there’s a 46% of a 1-4 pick and an 83% chance of a 9 pick. That’s a 129% chance risk of those five picks when the most possible for all picks is 100%. Sounds like you just won a Nobel Prize for breaking math as we know it.

[exstatic]

It's the same odds no matter the number of times you try. They don't add up. They reset each time you roll the proverbial dice. The spurs won't get one, 40% shot of a 1-4 pick. They get two shots at ~20% with the same odds resetting each try.

So really, this is like Terrence Howard quoting Feynman to explain why NDT was wrong. "Nuh uh" doesn't cut it.

By your logic, everyone has the exact same odds to win the draft lottery, since it doesn’t matter how many number combinations you hold.

[vy65]

By your logic, everyone has the exact same odds to win the draft lottery, since it doesn’t matter how many number combinations you hold.

That’s not what I’m saying not a remotely plausible interpretation of what I’ve said. Try again.

[vy65]

*try again Neil DeGrasse Tyson

[buttsR4rebounding]

It's the same odds no matter the number of times you try. They don't add up. They reset each time you roll the proverbial dice. The spurs won't get one, 40% shot of a 1-4 pick. They get two shots at ~20% with the same odds resetting each try.

So really, this is like Terrence Howard quoting Feynman to explain why NDT was wrong. "Nuh uh" doesn't cut it.

lol. Ex is totally correct. You are not re-rolling the dice. You are rolling them once with multiple combinations that will produce a winner for you. It is hard to believe you are actually arguing the additional chances don’t give you better odds.

[vy65]

The spurs are throwing a 14 sided die twice. After the first throw, one number is removed from the die, so it becomes 13 sided. The first throw has a 20% chance of being numbers 1-4. In this scenario, that makes those odds be 4/14 or 28%. If they hit 1-4, that means there’s a 3/13 chance they do it again, or 21%. That doesn’t mean that the spurs have a 49% chance of getting a 1-4 roll.

[scott]

We need Ariel to do the exact math, because I'm too lazy to do it, but no - the having the 8th and 9th pick (pre-lotto) do not give you a 46.4% chance at getting a Top 4 pick, the same way that they don't give you a 153.4% chance of not getting a Top 4 pick (which is the sum of the odds of all other possible picks).

The same way if you had 10 of the 14 top pick odds, you would not have a 375.9% of getting a Top 4 pick.

By the same token, if you had picks 11-14 (pre lottery), you would not have a 23.7% chance of getting a Top 4 pick. This is in part because hitting on one of them excludes the possibility you can hit on the others. You can add up the odds for any one team and you can add up the odds for any one pick, but you can't do it ulatively across teams (rows) and picks (columns).

C'mon exstatic, use your brain man.

[exstatic]

That’s not what I’m saying not a remotely plausible interpretation of what I’ve said. Try again.

We hold both our number combinations AND Atlanta’s. If any of their combinations or our combinations are drawn, we move up. It’s one pot of number combinations that we own.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

Hey Neil. So you’re saying the odds add up? So there’s a 46% of a 1-4 pick and an 83% chance of a 9 pick. That’s a 129% chance risk of those five picks when the most possible for all picks is 100%. Sounds like you just won a Nobel Prize for breaking math as we know it.

1-4 add up to 46% and then 5-9 add up to the remaining 54% for slot 5.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

The Spurs are not repeating the same probability with multiple picks in a round. They are getting a larger share of the probable outcomes. All the teams get different numbers. The probabilities are additive in this case.

[BackHome]

Haha I still remember people saying it was Stupid to tank last year and that there was No way we would get Wemby. Ahhh Good Times. Lol

[vy65]

We hold both our number combinations AND Atlanta’s. If any of their combinations or our combinations are drawn, we move up. It’s one pot of number combinations that we own.

You’re like Stephen Hawking, but with just the wheelchair and inability to speak and none of his intelligence

[scott]

The spurs are throwing a 14 sided die twice. After the first throw, one number is removed from the die, so it becomes 13 sided. The first throw has a 20% chance of being numbers 1-4. In this scenario, that makes those odds be 4/14 or 28%. If they hit 1-4, that means there’s a 3/13 chance they do it again, or 21%. That doesn’t mean that the spurs have a 49% chance of getting a 1-4 roll.

Bingo.

[vy65]

Brian Wright is a ing genius for scoring us 200% odds while the rest of the NBA is ing behind us with 100% odds. ing idiots.

[MultiTroll]

Indeed. For as deep as next year's class seems to have the potential to be - has there ever been a draft class 10 players deep? I know that you can find HOFs anywhere in the draft... but then luck and scouting exceptionalism come into play. I can't recall any draft that had 10 guys who were "obvious" picks.

84 had some top talent and was 10 deep.

Michael Jordan
John Stockton
Charles Barkley
Hakeem Olajuwon
Otis Thorpe
Sam Perkins
Kevin Willis
Michael Cage
Jerome Kersey
Alvin Robertson

[Wilt Chamberlain]

The spurs are throwing a 14 sided die twice. After the first throw, one number is removed from the die, so it becomes 13 sided. The first throw has a 20% chance of being numbers 1-4. In this scenario, that makes those odds be 4/14 or 28%. If they hit 1-4, that means there’s a 3/13 chance they do it again, or 21%. That doesn’t mean that the spurs have a 49% chance of getting a 1-4 roll.

And if the lottery was ongoing that would matter. Not only is the lottery not ongoing can you ever recall a pick being traded in the middle of the lottery?

[scott]

To put the dice example more accurately:

If the Spurs had the 8 and 9 seed:

Dice Throw 1, Spurs have 105 out of 1000 combinations.

Assume they do not hit.

Dice Throw 2: Spurs have 105 out of 999 combination.

Assume they do not hit.

Dice Throw 3: Spurs have 105 out of 998 combinations.

Dice throw 4: Spurs have 105 out of 997 combinations.

The tricky part of it is that after throw one, there is one combination that gets thrown out (Because it's already chosen) but there is also between 4 and 139 OTHER combinations that if picked, are invalidated, because the owner of those combinations already got picked. So your odds of landing the 4th pick are impacted by who wins pick 1-3. If Seeds 1-3 get those picks, then on roll 4 you have 105 out of 580 possible winning combos, but if Seeds 12, 13, 14 somehow jumped up, you'd only have 105 out of 970 winning combinations.

Edit, there are actually 1,001 combos - I forgot about that. But only 1,000 are assigned. So it's the same as above. You have the same combos assigned to you throughout picks 1-4, so as combos are drawn, the odds actually adjust based on the number of combos that get nullified ahead of you.

[Wilt Chamberlain]

You guys clearly never understood the point of Schrodinger's cat. To help, in this case the box has not opened and you are discussing what will happen after it is opened.