There is Markannen to Spurs Buzz

[Seventyniner]

Since we're back at making potential trade scenarios, I'll repost this from a couple of weeks back. With some updates because stuff happened since.

How would you value our picks?

'26 ATL/SAS swap and '27 ATL are easily the most valuable, I'd argue those two are more valuable than 4 FRPs Knicks traded for Bridges.
'25 ATL isn't as valuable as those with Trae still on the roster.
'25 SAS loses value if we trade it for Markkanen.
'27 and onwards SAS picks are hopefully well into 20s.
'25 CHI could convey because Bulls hate tanking and they shouldn't be among worst 8 teams in both '26 and '27.
'25 CHA is probably not going to convey, but they did improve their roster significantly and they might just make the play-in since so many East teams are going to blatantly tank.

'28 BOS and '30 DAL swaps probably won't be great, maybe if DAL implodes.
'30 MIN swap and '31 MIN top1 protected are a complete unknown, I can see them dropping out of contention by then because this is the best roster they can put together and 7 years is a long time to go.
I'd say those MIN picks would be up there with ATL picks for Ainge, he wants to control MIN's future even more.

Just picking a couple of tiny nits: the MIN30 swap is top 1 protected and the MIN31 first is unprotected, and the Spurs also have unprotected swap rights with SAC in 20131. SA31 (with SAC swap rights) should be on the list somewhere, maybe even as high as 4th because it's far enough out that the optionality has a lot of value. Plus it's freaking Sacramento, the Celtics got Tatum because they had unprotected swap rights with the Kings.

[baseline bum]

That's a desperate overpay. If Spurs offered something close to that, Lauri would have been a spur next day. Because nobody else is able to make an offer even close to this.

The fact that Jazz is still negotiating with Warriors for 2 Podziemsk + 2 picks means spurs didn't offer that much.

You're like buying a Tesla for $100k. Really nice car, but you don't have double pay just because you have the money.

Where are you hearing the Jazz only want two picks plus Podz for Markannen? Of course they're not taking that offer, especially since those two picks can't be 2029 and 2031 when Curry is retired or on the edge of it due to the Stepien rule when they owe part of their 2030 pick to Washington from the Jordan Poole trade. Golden State can't offer Utah a compelling package until they get a 2030 first to allow them to trade 2029 and 2031. Ainge isn't going to give Markannen away for Podz plus two picks that will be in the 20s with Curry + Markannen leading them back to being a top 5 seed in the west. Spurs could easily crush that offer and would.

[Mugen]

I don't know if it's for Markannen but I buy the Keldon being actively shopped rumors. Lot of weird smoke with him and CP3's number tbh

[LeBowen]

Just picking a couple of tiny nits: the MIN30 swap is top 1 protected and the MIN31 first is unprotected, and the Spurs also have unprotected swap rights with SAC in 20131. SA31 (with SAC swap rights) should be on the list somewhere, maybe even as high as 4th because it's far enough out that the optionality has a lot of value. Plus it's freaking Sacramento, the Celtics got Tatum because they had unprotected swap rights with the Kings.

You're right, I forgot that one because I just copied my old post and added CHA pick since they're actually building a functional roster.

I don't know if it's for Markannen but I buy the Keldon being actively shopped rumors. Lot of weird smoke with him and CP3's number tbh

But if he goes, a wing with at least respectable 3pt shot has to come our way.
I don't see Spurs trading for Cam Johnson, Lauri seems like the only reasonable option.

I'll keep hoping for the best and hope Brian told Ainge to call him when he gets Warriors' best and final offer because we can easily beat it if it's worth it.

[Mugen]

I could see Keldon going for peanuts tbh.

[scott]

Since we're back at making potential trade scenarios, I'll repost this from a couple of weeks back. With some updates because stuff happened since.

How would you value our picks?

'26 ATL/SAS swap and '27 ATL are easily the most valuable, I'd argue those two are more valuable than 4 FRPs Knicks traded for Bridges.
'25 ATL isn't as valuable as those with Trae still on the roster.
'25 SAS loses value if we trade it for Markkanen.
'27 and onwards SAS picks are hopefully well into 20s.
'25 CHI could convey because Bulls hate tanking and they shouldn't be among worst 8 teams in both '26 and '27.
'25 CHA is probably not going to convey, but they did improve their roster significantly and they might just make the play-in since so many East teams are going to blatantly tank.

'28 BOS and '30 DAL swaps probably won't be great, maybe if DAL implodes.
'30 MIN swap and '31 MIN top1 protected are a complete unknown, I can see them dropping out of contention by then because this is the best roster they can put together and 7 years is a long time to go.
I'd say those MIN picks would be up there with ATL picks for Ainge, he wants to control MIN's future even more.

Since Jazz has so many FRPs, there are also some options to effectively trade down.
For example, trading '26 ATL/SAS for '26 MIN/CLE would still have a lot of value for them.
Or trading '27 ATL for '27 CLE.
Even if we end up with no FRP in '26 draft it's not the end of the world because we have 5 SRPs that year and could easily move up to mid-20s if we really like someone.

My opinion still hasn't changed, in that topic Dejounte made I went over every single wing in the league with potential high end starter or all-star upside, if we talk the next two offseasons Markkanen and Naz Reid are the only realistic targets that wouldn't murder our cap situation, wouldn't cost us Devin and are still fairly young.
With all the picks we own, Markkenen is a no-brainer.
If we don't get him, trading away #8 and not taking a swing with any of those young forwards will look idiotic.

I love this discussion, and I once started a thread on it. I'll dig it up and quote you with this there so we can continue that discussion there in the absence of it being in the context of Lauri.

I'm also working on the concept for post that does some statistical analysis on the value of far out swaps (like, 20131 far out - when natural variance takes over and you can't predict who will be good or not). Specifically I want to measure the marginal impact of acquiring additional swaps in the same year (what I'll call "Vertical Swap Acquisition" as opposed to "Horizontal Swap Acquisition", which would be acquiring swaps across multiple years). For the stats nerds in here, I think it will be a banger.

[Seventyniner]

I love this discussion, and I once started a thread on it. I'll dig it up and quote you with this there so we can continue that discussion there in the absence of it being in the context of Lauri.

I'm also working on the concept for post that does some statistical analysis on the value of far out swaps (like, 20131 far out - when natural variance takes over and you can't predict who will be good or not). Specifically I want to measure the marginal impact of acquiring additional swaps in the same year (what I'll call "Vertical Swap Acquisition" as opposed to "Horizontal Swap Acquisition", which would be acquiring swaps across multiple years). For the stats nerds in here, I think it will be a banger.

I'm looking forward to it. Coming from you it should be high quality.

Here's a useful source, showing that a team's record 5 years out is almost entirely uncorrelated with their most recent record.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/6...- le-windows

[scott]

I'm looking forward to it. Coming from you it should be high quality.

Here's a useful source, showing that a team's record 5 years out is almost entirely uncorrelated with their most recent record.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/6...- le-windows

Thanks for this link! That aligns with my non-quantified thinking, that after 5 years it all comes to natural variance, since that's the longest contract a player can have so you can't really predict anything after that.

[scott]

On the Jazz subreddit, folks seem to think Lauri will go to GSW or SAS. They are even going so far as to ranking Warriors and Jazz players and picks so they can say what packages they prefer.

One thing I saw was this though:

As far as possible young players go, I admittedly haven't watched a ton of any of them but I think I'd go in this order

1. Vassell
2. Podz
3. Kuminga
4. Sissoko
5. K. Johnson
6. Moody

I just found it hilarious that anyone would rate Sidy this high.

[Spurs Homer]

Id let vassell go - way before keldon and/or sochan tbh

be careful what you wish for utah fans - you might get it

[Manu20]

Id let vassell go - way before keldon and/or sochan tbh

be careful what you wish for utah fans - you might get it

Nooooooo

A trio of Wemby, Lauri, and Vassell compliment each other almost perfectly! Trading Vassell to get Lauri is a lateral move IMO.

[Ice009]

Keeping Vassell is what makes it work.

[John B]

On the Jazz subreddit, folks seem to think Lauri will go to GSW or SAS. They are even going so far as to ranking Warriors and Jazz players and picks so they can say what packages they prefer.

One thing I saw was this though:



I just found it hilarious that anyone would rate Sidy this high.

Did anybody ask for Tre? Or Zollins??

Vassell is hard to let go. I think Vassell is the 2nd option in the Wemby/Vassell/Markkannen trio.

But yeah, they can have Sidy too

[baseline bum]

On the Jazz subreddit, folks seem to think Lauri will go to GSW or SAS. They are even going so far as to ranking Warriors and Jazz players and picks so they can say what packages they prefer.

One thing I saw was this though:



I just found it hilarious that anyone would rate Sidy this high.

They're not getting Vassell unless it's like Vassell, the Spurs 2028 (best of Spurs/Celtics), and the 2031 Minnesota pick. Even that I'm hesitant to offer. If they think they're getting a good young player and a Bridges haul of picks ROFL, Makannen ain't Durant.

[exstatic]

Thanks for this link! That aligns with my non-quantified thinking, that after 5 years it all comes to natural variance, since that's the longest contract a player can have so you can't really predict anything after that.

I would think you might need to rank team history in there, somewhere, too. I don’t think all teams have the same ups and downs.

[scott]

Did anybody ask for Tre? Or Zollins??

Vassell is hard to let go. I think Vassell is the 2nd option in the Wemby/Vassell/Markkannen trio.

But yeah, they can have Sidy too

They're not getting Vassell unless it's like Vassell, the Spurs 2028 (best of Spurs/Celtics), and the 2031 Minnesota pick. Even that I'm hesitant to offer. If they think they're getting a good young player and a Bridges haul of picks ROFL, Makannen ain't Durant.

Yeah, I responded to the dude that Sidy is garbage and they shouldn't really rate him, but Vassell was pretty much off the table. They seem to enjoy the honest feedback.

I would think you might need to rank team history in there, somewhere, too. I don’t think all teams have the same ups and downs.

Yeah, I would like to build a model where you could assign some kind of "probability of being good" but it complicates things a little bit - so I'll probably just stick with a straight, all far-out possibilities are equal type scenario. Which in some respects makes sense because, yes there is a stronger chance that a bad franchise like MIN will be bad in the future than a "good" franchise like SAS, BOS, or LAL (the three winningest franchises of all time), but all franchises go through down periods and anything can happen (injury, for example) in any given year.

But, it is interesting. I finished grad school 20 years ago, but one of my favorite things was trying to predictively model out things that are general not predictable or based on some logic on a micro scale but are still subject to predictable variation on a macro level. For example, can you model out human nature, which at an individual level is not predictable, but tends to be so when looking at large populations of people. Anyway, I digress.

[Spurs Homer]

Nooooooo

A trio of Wemby, Lauri, and Vassell compliment each other almost perfectly! Trading Vassell to get Lauri is a lateral move IMO.

sure,

instead of snubbing wemby who is wide open for a lob dunk…

vassell will snub BOTH wemby and lauri and dribble around 40 feet from the basket and jack up a triple teamed fallaway jumper that misses

[DAF86]

Id let vassell go - way before keldon and/or sochan tbh

Dude, no. Just no. How can you watch the Spurs all season long and get it so wrong? Just accept you are wrong and sit this one out.

[Spurs Homer]

Dude, no. Just no. How can you watch the Spurs all season long and get it so wrong? Just accept you are wrong and sit this one out.

keldon and sochan have heart and play with heart

vassell is one knee injury away from being done and he thinks he is just as important as wemby and snubs him when wemby is open and asking for the ball

at least keldon and sochan get to work on defense and scrap

[LeBowen]

While we're at it, we should've signed Pat Bev instead of CP3.

[spurraider21]

They're not getting Vassell unless it's like Vassell, the Spurs 2028 (best of Spurs/Celtics), and the 2031 Minnesota pick. Even that I'm hesitant to offer. If they think they're getting a good young player and a Bridges haul of picks ROFL, Makannen ain't Durant.

I wouldn’t offer that tbh

[scott]

I'd do Vassell for Lauri straight up, but that's about it if I'm giving up Devin (which I don't want to do). Then I'd go use all the picks I just saved in getting Lauri to go find a replacement for Devin. Not ideal, but I could live with it. But again... not my preferred route.

[FkLA]

keldon and sochan have heart and play with heart

vassell is one knee injury away from being done and he thinks he is just as important as wemby and snubs him when wemby is open and asking for the ball

at least keldon and sochan get to work on defense and scrap

Imagine valuing players based on "heart" and "scrappiness"

[SpursFan86]

Yeah, I don’t think Lauri is THAT much of an upgrade over Devin to warrant giving up really any noticeable draft assets…in a vacuum, sure, but not when factoring in the difference of salary Vassell will be owed over the next several years vs. Lauri’s projected salary.

[scott]

Yeah, I don’t think Lauri is THAT much of an upgrade over Devin to warrant giving up really any noticeable draft assets…in a vacuum, sure, but not when factoring in the difference of salary Vassell will be owed over the next several years vs. Lauri’s projected salary.

Not to mention Devin's age.

I do think that Lauri is a better player than Devin and Devin will be lucky to ever reach Lauri's level of scoring efficiency at any point in his career... but Devin is younger and (at least for the next 5 years) cheaper (in aggregate). Those at least equal the two players out, and honestly I could make a fair argument that if the Jazz wanted Devin, they'd have to send Lauri + assets.