2025 NBA Draft

[objective]

As unremarkable a season that he's had, I still kind of like Hugo Gonzalez.

In all the years of "next Manu-itis" that's been thrust upon any vaguely wing sized player with blood ties to the ancient Roman designated area of Hispania ....

He's the only one that has had athleticism anywhere close to Manu. Not saying he's equal as an athlete because Manu was a special athlete. And definitely not saying his game compares ...

But he does look like a legit NBA athlete to me. He's such a project still that he may not even come out or maybe he'll do a Fran Vazquez.

Might be worth a gamble if the Atlanta pick is really late in the teens or early 20s and the other usual suspects are off the board

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

So with the Spurs season hanging on ping pong balls once again I've turned my attention to the draft lately. Here's where I'm at.

This isn't how I expect the draft to go, nor how I see these players in 5 years, just my Spurs board.

Tier 1 ( the obvious top 4 currently, in that order )
1.Flagg
2.Harper - I like the fit on the Spurs, multiple ball handlers, multiple players who can attack the rim, tall, big. At worst it can be a Haliburton in Kings situation
3.Ace - too talented to pass here, although limitations are obvious. Still very young. Even if his handle never develops I could see him as a Jerami Grant type. Doesn't sound amazing for a 3rd pick but I consider it close to his floor unless he pulls a Cam Reddish
4.VJ - don't think he's even close to 6'5 but he could probably play big enough to be a 2 due to his athleticism. Wish his handle and playmaking were better. Lots of upside defensively, having someone who could potentially guard quick PGs would be super valuable

Tier 2 ( weird place in the draft, kinda don't think anyone is great value here, but someone will hit for sure )
5.Tre Johnson - I think he can be an awesome 6th man in the Lou Williams type, but bigger. His playmaking is better than he's giver credit and yeah he can't get to the rim but perhaps this is partly due to his team being horrible with 0 spacing
6.Kon Knueppel - I like him as a connective piece. He's good at defense, a good playmaker, I can see him as a Max Strus type, or even a Desmond Bane if everything goes well
7.Rasheer Fleming - that's right I have him high. Not a great ceiling due to a lack of self creation and a questionable shot, but ticks so many boxes. Can't see him being great defending on the perimeter but will do great against the likes of Zion, Randle. etc.
8.Liam McNeeley - not a sexy pick but he's pretty plug and play, no doubt his shooting translates. Other than that there are some good signs (rebounding, getting to the line a ton) and some bad ones (can't finish, defense)
9.Jase Richardson - smart player, probably a bit too short to play the 2 and not a good enough playmaker to be a full time PG but he could excel in a Fox-Castle-Richardson rotation
10.Will Riley - probably too high and probably two years away so he'll be called a bust, but I like his shooting and especially his on ball and playmaking development. I'd take the risk
11.J. Fears - not a great fit on the Spurs but at this point there are slim pickings. His handle and first step are elite, so there's a lot to work with compared to other players without an elite skill
12.Kasparas - I have him low because I don't believe he can create separation against high level athletes but he's smart and will find a niche. Probably not on the Spurs. I should have him lower (Can't wait for the Spurs to pick him 3rd or something)

Next Tier ( upside play, most probably won't be very good NBA players )
13.Carter Bryant - plug and play, made for today's NBA but I think his upside may not be that high. Still, a high level 3 and D roleplayer would be great value at the end of the lotter/mid first
14.Asa Newel - don't think he's a 4, don't think he's a 5, don't think he'll shoot great. But he has some nice tools and could be a valuable player if he puts it together
15.Nolan Traore - same as Kasparas, just don't think he'll be able to drive to the rim against NBA athletes, but I like his passing and don't think his shot is as bad as the numbers suggest
16.Egor Demin - not sure what he is in the NBA, I guess a Deni Avdija if all goes well
17.Ben Saraf - has a star's skillset but not good enough to play like one. I've watched him 2 or 3 times he's shifty and he shoots a lot of midrange Js. Generally young players who put up numbers in professional leagues are a good bet. Might move him higher
18.Drake Powel - I like his defense and motor. He's not allowed to show much in his team's system but I like the upside
19.John Blackwell - I think he's an NBA player eventually. Not so sure about some of the above

A separate tier for 3 guys I don't see the fit for
20.CMB - I have him low because I don't see how he scores in the NBA. He's more of a 5 and gives me Precious Achiuwa vibes, but I can accept being wrong here. Still, don't see the Spurs fit
21.Thomas Sorber - don't know if his foot is alright, but out of this group of misfits I believe in his shot the most
22.Khaman Maluach - I get the idea of a possible Capela type but I don't see him developing as a 12 MPG back-up on the Spurs with zero chance to earn more. Perimeter defense is surprisingly good, but I don't believe in the shot at all
23.Derik Queen - same as CMB, talent is there but unsure what he'd do on the Spurs. Also his defense in space is beyond horrible

Tier whatever (maybe, possibly, I'm struggling to fill up a first round in this draft)
24.Adou Thiero - if he could ever learn to shoot he'd be much higher, love the athleticism. There's always a Toumani Camara somewhere waiting to put it all together
25.Noa Essengue - a good profile, but just don't think he's advanced enough. Might be very good down the road
26.Myles Byrd - his defense is good but I don't believe in that trebuchet shot
27.Nique Clifford - he's old but he can play and projects as a decent 8/9th man, a Champagnie maybe. Not sure his shot is for real though
28.Noah Penda - he's big and he moves well, that's more than some in this draft
29.Tyrese Proctor - I have him higher than most but I think he's a good player, no real elite skill but well rounded and sometimes this exact type turns into a very valuable role player
30.Bogoljub Markovic - tall and can shoot and even pass a little. Should be higher but I don't think he survives defensively at all

That was difficult to come up with 30 players for this draft. It's gross. I'm probably forgetting someone. I actually have four more - Philon, Ian Jackson, Evans, Sanon - but I'm pretty sure they go back to college.

[SpursBills]

Has anyone watched/heard of Alvaro Folgueiras? Might be worth a second round flyer. Plays in the Horizon league but has the "Draymond" numbers profile - +stocks, +OREB%, +AST%, and with added bonus of + shooting indicators

6'9" sop re PF, just turned 20
9% ORB%, 4.3 BLK%, 2.8 STL%, 22 AST%, 1.3 AST:TO, shooting 78% FT and 43% from 3 on medium volume, 40% from midrange

[spurraider21]

So with the Spurs season hanging on ping pong balls once again I've turned my attention to the draft lately. Here's where I'm at.

This isn't how I expect the draft to go, nor how I see these players in 5 years, just my Spurs board.

thanks for all that and the thoughts on each player

im not well versed in most of these players, but im with you on liking fleming/mcneeley/knueppel for what little i know so far. newell/queen/CMB are also tough for me to wrap my head around. undersized interior players who dont shoot well like CMB are scary. sure they can pan out, but you also have a lot of college stars with that description who flopped in the NBA like hansbrough

[3&D_TBH]

Seems there are a wiiiiide variety of D Queen takes out there. I’ve seen people say he’s top 3 in the draft and I’ve seen people say he’s a bum. Shades of of B Diaw but Boris had a better shot.

[Mr. Body]

Amazing how many lotto picks won't make the NCAAT. I don't remember it being this bad.

Feels like we have two likely stars in Flagg and Harper. Bailey has the talent but a team might have to build around his problems and teams may not want to do this.

Then a few interesting possibilities (Tre, VJ) and then the value starts cratering in relation to pick number. I wonder if picks 6-10 or so are actually going to be worse than those picks last year.

Flagg did his ankle during his game today; we'll hear how bad it was.

Watching Texas/TAMU and it's impressive how poor the Longhorn coaching is, almost Spurs level bad. They'll iso Tre Johnson for late-game shots and he can't get anything. That's just not him.

[spurraider21]

one thing i will say for my fellow Fleming enjoyers... the more you watch, the more you realize the guy has pretty poor touch/feel with the ball in his hands. he has made the occasional, surprisingly decent pass, but in general, asking him to do anything besides taking a 3 and laying it in/dunking is asking a lot of him

his passing is generally poor. his turnover % in college (turnovers per 100 possessions) is about 12%, which is not that far off from what we've seen out of wemby in the pros (15%) despite having the ball a lot less. someone like harrison barnes is at 8.6% for his career, about 6% for us this year.

so he's still got work to do to at least mitigate those weaknesses

[scott]

one thing i will say for my fellow Fleming enjoyers... the more you watch, the more you realize the guy has pretty poor touch/feel with the ball in his hands. he has made the occasional, surprisingly decent pass, but in general, asking him to do anything besides taking a 3 and laying it in/dunking is asking a lot of him

his passing is general poor. his turnover % in college (turnovers per 100 possessions) is about 12%, which is not that far off from what we've seen out of wemby in the pros (15%) despite having the ball a lot less. someone like harrison barnes is at 8.6% for his career, about 6% for us this year.

so he's still got work to do to at least mitigate those weaknesses

We talking like Charles Bassey-like clumsiness upon entry, or more like a Boban "I don't know what this round object is or why you threw it to me" kind of thing?

Someone talk some Sergio DeLarrea sweet nothings to me? Is his only a mo7888 favorite (which a lot of times is good enough for me, mo is always a solid evaluator)? He's down to #26 on Tankathon, I'm hoping maybe he slides to us in the 2nd (who am I kidding, we aren't taking someone in the early second round )

[spurraider21]

We talking like Charles Bassey-like clumsiness upon entry, or more like a Boban "I don't know what this round object is or why you threw it to me" kind of thing?

Someone talk some Sergio DeLarrea sweet nothings to me? Is his only a mo7888 favorite (which a lot of times is good enough for me, mo is always a solid evaluator)? He's down to #26 on Tankathon, I'm hoping maybe he slides to us in the 2nd (who am I kidding, we aren't taking someone in the early second round )

no i dont think its Boban bad. he plays on the perimeter and you can see him beat some pump fakes here and there with simple crossovers, sometimes the slow/ineffective sochan spin move type stuff. he's not going to just fumble the ball off his knees per se the way we'd see from LDN. his passing is rough, its kind of like bassey. he'll throw behind a moving player, etc. wont properly anticipate player movement. or just off target sometimes.

as far as touch... im not expecting hookshots, floaters, or turnaround shots or anything like that from him.

offensively, think less JJJ, more Myles Turner. less is more with him (at least for now)

[mo7888]

We talking like Charles Bassey-like clumsiness upon entry, or more like a Boban "I don't know what this round object is or why you threw it to me" kind of thing?

Someone talk some Sergio DeLarrea sweet nothings to me? Is his only a mo7888 favorite (which a lot of times is good enough for me, mo is always a solid evaluator)? He's down to #26 on Tankathon, I'm hoping maybe he slides to us in the 2nd (who am I kidding, we aren't taking someone in the early second round )

On De Larrea I love the fit here. He's a very good shooter from deep with good size. Originally I saw him as someone who could play alongside Castle seamlessly. Now that we have Fox, and assuming we move Devin. A Fox, Castle, De Larrea rotation with DL coming off the bench offers alot of upside. There are certainly weakness too. He's not a strong defender and turns it over to much, but I believe he can mitigate the D with effort due to his size and I believe the turnovers can be cleaned up with a defined role. Part of the reason I have him as high as I do on my Spurs board is because of the other guys on the board at that point. Egor for instance I have right below because I value shooting more for this team than the things Egor brings. Egor could be a really good player (even on this team) if you have a guy at the 2 and 4 who can defend and shooter better than league average from three. We just don't currently have those guys and I don't really project trades into my board to determine what our needs are.

[CGD]

All these gossip girls want K-Nipple to SA. Is he any good? Better than MacNeely?

[Mr. Body]

All these gossip girls want K-Nipple to SA. Is he any good? Better than MacNeely?

Kon blew up tonight after Flagg went down, including playmaking, getting into the lane and tossing lobs to Maluach. I'd say he's a good bit better than McNeeley right now definitely.

[Dejounte]

Tier 1 - no brainer, destined for s om
Flagg
Harper

Tier 2 - Oozing talent
Kon
VJ Edgecombe

Tier 3 - Good gamble. Low chance of s om, but I like the fit
Fleming
Queen
Demin

Tier 4 - Tools are there, but I don’t trust it
Bailey
Tre Johnson

Tier 5 - Dark horse picks who I personally believe have hope to become stars
Saraf
De Larrea
Byrd
Riley
Traore

Tier 6 - Safe, role player ceiling picks
CMB
Kasparas
Maluach
Noa Essengue

Tier 7 - I wouldn’t understand this pick
Asa Newell
Fears

Tier 8 - Bust
McNeeley

[Dejounte]

Kon is this year’s Castle. The Spurs (if they get high enough) will draft him solely because he plays like a 10 year vet and plays like a winner.

[onechance87]

yea kon looked good.Lets see if he can keep doing this.

[Mr. Body]

Kon is this year’s Castle. The Spurs (if they get high enough) will draft him solely because he plays like a 10 year vet and plays like a winner.

Isn't that what you'd want?

[Trueblood]

Why is Fleming so low in several mock drafts? He looks to be a great fit for the Spurs.

I think age has a lot to do with it. They showed the analytics on it during the last draft and a decent 18 year old in college has a higher probability of being a great player than a really good 21 year old. The fact is that those three years make a huge difference and at 21 he should be dominant given that he’s a man playing against boys. I like him, but basically he is now exactly what he will be when he comes in. So you have to ask yourself, is what he is now worth a lottery (or near lottery) pick.

[SpursBills]

thanks for all that and the thoughts on each player

im not well versed in most of these players, but im with you on liking fleming/mcneeley/knueppel for what little i know so far. newell/queen/CMB are also tough for me to wrap my head around. undersized interior players who dont shoot well like CMB are scary. sure they can pan out, but you also have a lot of college stars with that description who flopped in the NBA like hansbrough

This is a good point that I want to dig into a little further, can you give some examples of these players in recent memory?

So far I can think of Hansbrough, Jahlil Okafor, Caleb Swanigan, Jared Sullinger, Luka Garza, Thomas Robinson off the top of my head. I'm sure there's a few I'm missing.

Does Brandon Clarke fit into this or would you consider him a solid player?

[Uriel]

I’m just really not sold on Kneuppel the way I am on, say, his teammate Maluach. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a really good basketball player. But I just can’t look past his lack of physical tools. I really believe he benefits a lot from playing alongside Flagg, who draws a lot of defensive attention. But when you put actual size and length on Kneuppel, he struggles. I’m just not sure he will translate at the next level.

On the other hand, Maluach for me is very clearly a sure thing. He has excellent size, length, and tremendous upside, only having learned how to play basketball recently, unlike Kneuppel who’s been playing all his life.

Again, I like Kneuppel and I’m rooting for him to succeed. I’m just giving my honest opinion.

[spurraider21]

I think age has a lot to do with it. They showed the analytics on it during the last draft and a decent 18 year old in college has a higher probability of being a great player than a really good 21 year old. The fact is that those three years make a huge difference and at 21 he should be dominant given that he’s a man playing against boys. I like him, but basically he is now exactly what he will be when he comes in. So you have to ask yourself, is what he is now worth a lottery (or near lottery) pick.

just to be precise, Fleming is 20. he will turn 21 in july. he's an upperclassman but a young one in that context. he'll be 21 his entire rookie year

j-dub turned 22 near the end of his rookie year

[spurraider21]

This is a good point that I want to dig into a little further, can you give some examples of these players in recent memory?

So far I can think of Hansbrough, Jahlil Okafor, Caleb Swanigan, Jared Sullinger, Luka Garza, Thomas Robinson off the top of my head. I'm sure there's a few I'm missing.

Does Brandon Clarke fit into this or would you consider him a solid player?

definitely not recent, but i always think back to Sean May

[SpursBills]

definitely not recent, but i always think back to Sean May

Nice one. I'm going to dig into some numbers, but my guess is that undersized non-shooting interior big usually fails in the NBA when they can't do 3 things:

1. Can't drive - without a good face-up game / decent handles, they have no way to initiate the offense other than a post entry pass
2. Can't pass - becomes a one dimensional scorer and ball-stopper / play finisher, forces inefficient post-centric offense
3. Can't defend, specifically defend the perimeter - if they can't defend the perimeter they're forced to become a rim protector where size works against them

[south side spur]

Nice one. I'm going to dig into some numbers, but my guess is that undersized non-shooting interior big usually fails in the NBA when they can't do 3 things:

1. Can't drive - without a good face-up game / decent handles, they have no way to initiate the offense other than a post entry pass
2. Can't pass - becomes a one dimensional scorer and ball-stopper / play finisher, forces inefficient post-centric offense
3. Can't defend, specifically defend the perimeter - if they can't defend the perimeter they're forced to become a rim protector where size works against them

CMB can handle, drive, pass and facilitate the offense from the perimeter. He’s usually positioned at the free throw line out to the 3 point line when he receives the ball. He’s definitely a face up not a back to the basket player. He can definitely defend on the perimeter. These players you’re comparing him to past interior bigs play nothing like him so instead of researching your undersized big theory which you’re correct obviously I suggest watch more CMB tape. He’s more Draymond Green than those past bigs you named. He played with the worst supporting cast competing in arguably the toughest conference in NCAA history.

[cutewizard]

[Dejounte]

yea kon looked good.Lets see if he can keep doing this.

We don’t want him to keep doing this. He’ll jump into the top 4 and there’ll be no chance. The Spurs should know how talented he is by now. Well, if the Spurs jump to 3, 4 at least I think Kon is the undisputed third or fourth best player of this draft. People are sleeping on Kon. His high school tape shows he’s much more than he is, just like Castle’s did. He has a good in-between game to where he doesn’t just suffer being a 1-dimensional player. He also has good lateral speed to stay in front of his man. But above all, the kid is highly intelligent and makes heads up plays. Kon is the obvious Spurs pick if the Spurs don’t land the top 2 picks.