Queen is not a franchise player anymore than Randle is.
Can't wait to give this guy 4/100.
His contract should have a lot of money on 3-point shooting incentives
I still feel like noone would rate him if not for his Rodman cosplay, if he was just another generic looking, non-shooting wing.
People can cope all they want, but numbers don't lie:
Yeah, he got the short end of the stick because of all the role changes, but those happened only because he's not effective enough in his primary role.
As I said before, he's suffering from Ben Simmons syndrome. I'm not referring to the lack of work ethic or bad mentality, but the fact that even after three seasons, he's still almost the same player he was when he entered the league.
We have our franchise player, we have another all-star in his peak and we have a rookie with very high ceiling. Those are the three players we're building around.
Everyone else needs to have a complementary skillset that helps those three. We don't want to adjust to role players that don't fit our stars.
Jeremy isn't a nephew-like point of attack defender or a physical specimen so his lack of offensive game should be tolerated.
He seems to be a good guy, but he's shown nothing to warrant more than around 60/4 extension offer. Even that's generous, I'm not sure he's worth more than 10 million a year.
If he feels like that's a lowball, he's can prove his worth next season and earn himself a bigger offer.
We already somewhat burned ourselves with that Devin contract, overpaying another subpar to average player based on their potential would be dumb with the new CBA rules. Especially someone who's so limited on offense.
I don't think there's even any room for discussion about this other than Spurs getting a new coach who really rates Jeremy and can get the most out of him without taking away from our core players.
You're only looking at his raw counting stats, which don't account for the fact that he played 4.3 fewer MPG this season. His advanced stats showed a big jump in year 3. Particularly TS% and TRB%, two of the most important stats for his role.People can cope all they want, but numbers don't lie:
Yeah, he got the short end of the stick because of all the role changes, but those happened only because he's not effective enough in his primary role.
As I said before, he's suffering from Ben Simmons syndrome. I'm not referring to the lack of work ethic or bad mentality, but the fact that even after three seasons, he's still almost the same player he was when he entered the league.
DARKO also shows a huge improvement in year 3.
Thanks. EPM also rates his defensive improvement highly (unlike LEBRON). His D-EPM was +1.2 (88%ile). And his overall EPM this season was 0.4 (71st percentile). He was showcasing even better numbers before Wemby got injured and Spurs' frontcourt became shorthanded making him play back-up C and the C in many lineups, leading to a slight dip in his D-EPM.You're only looking at his raw counting stats, which don't account for the fact that he played 4.3 fewer MPG this season. His advanced stats showed a big jump in year 3. Particularly TS% and TRB%, two of the most important stats for his role.
DARKO also shows a huge improvement in year 3.
Sochan showed clear steps of progression this season. While that doesn't mean that he deserves a big contract, the Spurs won't be off the mark by paying him a decent one.
Year 1 and 3 mpg is identical and the stats are as close as it gets.
You can talk about TS%, but that's just on him getting more easy looks due to the team finally an actual point guard.
https://3stepsbasket.com/player/jeremy-sochan/shooting
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631110/shots-dash
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631110/shooting
His 2pt FG% based on the number of dribbles says everything.
0 dribbles: 69%
1 dribble: 53%
2 dribbles: 42%
3 dribbles: 41%
He's at 68% on 2pt FG if he attempts a shot within 2 seconds of receiving the ball, but it goes down to 40% if it takes him more than 2 seconds.
He's 3/21 on 2pt FG outside the paint.
Shooting splits based on shot distance say enough, 67% inside 5ft, but 75% of those are assisted, drops to 20-35% as soon as he's not around the restricted area.
You can't be a 6'9 forward who's shooting less than 50% in the paint unless it's an easy dunk/layup and not be an offensive liability.
I'll give you that improved his rebounding, but what's the worth an extra offensive rebound or two if he makes it so much easier for defenses to scheme against his team whenever he's on the floor?
Another thing he's got going for him is that he was just one of the three players on the roster with traditional 6'7-6'10 wing size. And he didn't really take advantage of it.
Didn't even improve the most basic stuff like his FTs. Still at around 70%.
This post looks like I'm ting on him, but advanced stats mean nothing if they went up just because he was reduced to easy baskets on offense.
I just don't see why would a non-shooting forward who's not elite in any other aspect of the game get more than 10 to 12 million a year with current CBA rules.
He's the type of player contenders recycle yearly and get for minimum deals.
Bkref says Sochan shot 70.7% at the rim this season, up from 66.5% and 65.9% in his first two years. I don't know where you're getting "shooting less than 50% in the paint" from. Even averaging the 0-3 and 3-10 percentages, weighted for the % of shots he takes from each distance, gives 61.2%.
Are you really giving him zero credit for drastically improving his shot diet? It's not all him but it also isn't all not him. If anything it shows that he can credibly fill the rim-roller/dunker role, albeit only that one. His shot diet should be even more unbalanced towards shots at the rim going forward when he gets to play real minutes with Wemby and Fox.
As for the salary, you said $10-12M and then minimum. Which is it? I argue for something like the MLE because of the big difference between Sochan and role players on contenders: he will only be 22 next season. Players at that age tend to make bigger improvements than at other ages, and he already showed a jump this season.
I like Sochan but let's call a spade a spade. He can't shoot, he won't shoot, he frequently drives to the lane and will be two feet from the basket with zero intention of trying to score. He rebounds decently and can score at the basket if he's completely wide open (not saying much). He's touted as a defensive player but his defense isnt that great to begin with. And his biggest problem is he just does not fit next to Victor at all.
I think he has a role in the NBA as an energy bench guy but not as a main rotational piece. Spurs would be morons to offer him a 7 figure contract. they would be morons to not let him become a RFA and test the market. Sadly we all know SA is going to sign him to a 4/100 extension
I wrote that he's shooting less than 50% unless it's an easy dunk/layup, check out the links I posted, it's pretty obvious those are the only shots he converts reliably.
As I said, how much of it is an improvement because of the changes in the system?Are you really giving him zero credit for drastically improving his shot diet? It's not all him but it also isn't all not him. If anything it shows that he can credibly fill the rim-roller/dunker role, albeit only that one. His shot diet should be even more unbalanced towards shots at the rim going forward when he gets to play real minutes with Wemby and Fox.
I'm not against a roller/dunker, but if we're to have such PF, it has to be someone physically dominant who literally puts defenders in the basket whenever there's a mismatch. Jeremy doesn't do that.
And it's not even about the fit with Wemby, but about the fit with Fox/Castle. It looks like we're set for lineups with two guards that prefer attacking the rim, with neither being a great shooter, we can't make their life more difficult with Jeremy in the lineup.
Was my post not clear or something? I'd give him 10 to 12 because he's still a young player developed in house, but that's not the going rate for non-shooting wings who aren't elite athletes.As for the salary, you said $10-12M and then minimum. Which is it? I argue for something like the MLE because of the big difference between Sochan and role players on contenders: he will only be 22 next season. Players at that age tend to make bigger improvements than at other ages, and he already showed a jump this season.
He's had three seasons in an enviroment that had zero winning expectations, we can't afford to spend more than those ~10 million on a forward who hasn't improved his offensive game in a tanking environment while we're trying to compete.
Idk about you, but I got triggered so many times this season when he started dribbling the ball into the paint only to either attempt the most random shot you'll see or just straight up turn it over. It's like he has no processing power and doesn't think about how will things play out before he does something.
I think this is a key point here, but maybe not in the way you are implying? To me, most (if not all) of his improvement this season came from an improved shot diet and a more limited role and like you said here are signals that his offensive role should be narrowly tailored to those things. Indeed, he kind of looks broken when he tries to go venture outside of that rim-roller/dunker role. We saw a lot of him driving this season only to get into the paint and have an "oh what have I done" moment where he spins around and desperately seeks a pass back out to reset. These kind of actions serve no positive purpose for our offense and just result in having to reset with a dwindling shot clock and eventually a suboptimal shot.
So... at the end of the day, we have an effective rim-roller/dunker who can do very little else offensively but is generally a positive defensive contributor. The question is... what is that worth? How many minutes should that guy play? IMO, the 25 mpg he got this year seems about right, if not possibly a little high. For me, I'm only willing to devote around 4/60 to that, and even then I'm not sure if it's really if I want to pay that.
On the flip side, as you point out he is young and his development curve is pointing in the right direction... so there is definitely some upside yet to be unlocked. That's the key factor that does make me lean towards "yeah, let's take a gamble on 4/60". But if he was 27, instead of 22, you'd probably only give this guy $5MM/yr as a defensive specialist. So, you're really betting on the idea of him expanding his game (not just becoming more efficient at the handful of things he already does well).
Just my $0.02
I'm a Jeremy fan and if it were my decision I'd probably extend an offer in the 4/60 range - this assumes PATFO has a clear vision for this role. Anything above that seems detrimental.
Is there anybody that would offer more, both willing and able? I kind of want to find out who this would even be.
Agree and Scott and LeBowen above. Sochan still has value and upside if the new contract is $60/4 maximum.
50/4 with 2.5 million in 3-point in incentives per year so he‘s basically signed for 4/40 unless he develops a shot on decent volume
If the Spurs end up picking in the 8-10 range lets trade the pick and KJ for Cam Johnson and not pay Sochan.
Trading away KJ and not paying Sochan are both addition by subtraction moves. Cam Johnson is a perfect off ball fourth option with very good shooting splits 45/39/85.
I like Sochan but he was drafted as a blank slate with potential to do a lot of things. It's weird. It's like he has tools but not a lot of specific skills. His first year showed a lot of relative promise. Then he was thrust into a disastrous impossible situation as a point guard. JFC. How ing stupid that was. He went from point guard to part time center. I hope all this chaos is sculpting him into something special, but that hope is diminishing.
Its a bummer, but someone can like Fleming, who is likely a dumb basketball player, theoretically is more useful if he can simply shoot and dunk successfully.
I've gradually gotten lower and lower on Sochan throughout the season as the injuries have piled up, he's continued to exhibit the exact same skills as last year. His ceiling went from poor man's Scottie Barnes, to skinnier Aaron Gordon, to I'm not sure what I'm hoping for him now.
There are a few definitive things we can say about him right now:
1. He does not possess the handle or vision to be a secondary initiator, nor will he get the developmental reps to do so moving forward most likely. I can't think of any big creators like Barnes, Avdija, etc who developed that skill after age 22. Skill wise, those guys were way ahead of him at the same age. If anyone can come up with some examples, please let me know and I'll take another hit of hopium
2. He does not possess the strength and/or athleticism to be a versatile true 4 like Gordon. Nothing he can do about that, that's just genetics
3. I used to think that being both big and agile enough to defend the perimeter full time was extremely rare and valuable. But we have teams showing us that you can find a second rounder with a similar skillset and not lose too much as long as you're next to a high level big defender. Cleveland is the best example of this. Do I really want to pay Sochan 20 million a year when Dean Wade can shoot the 3 and gets paid 1/3 of that? Can I get 80% of what Sochan brings if I just draft Thomas Haugh in the second round?
4. His advanced numbers are trending up. But as a counterpoint:
What exactly is Sochan definitely better at than age 22 Vando? Both are very agile and guard the perimeter well, both rebound well for their size, neither can really shoot. If age 24 Vando is getting 4/48 just 2 years ago, 4/60 for age 22 Sochan seems reasonable here.
Take this guy to restricted FA if he doesn't accept 4/60, at the very least you get another year to see whether he's developed more skills. And hey, if next year he comes back a 15/7 guy with high level defense, improved handles, and 2.5 3PM/100, I'm happy to match a 5/125 offer sheet or extend him for that much and treat the lost savings as the cost of doing business.
Yeah I think a lot of people just posted two new advanced stats without really knowing what they mean. Sochans advanced stats say he can dunk the ball and he is a decent rebounder. He is a plus defender but not the all world defender that some posters here believe he is.
His high EFG means nothing when all he shoots is dunks at the rim and basically refuses to shoot any other shot. He has shown no improvement as a shooter at all. Absolutely none. If anything, he has regressed as a shooter. His mentality is weak and not one I want on our team. There’s zero point working on your shot if you don’t have any confidence in it. Let another team overpay for this guy. He is currently the 8th man on our roster and paying an 8th guy starting caliber money is a bad contract. Imagine paying $25 million a year for a guy who is going to play 25 minutes a game.
We have our core. Sochan has proven he isn’t a part of it. He’s a bench player. Before posters post nonsense, I want them to actually look at other teams bench players and see what they are paying those players before spouting off this nonsense of a contract of $100 million.
Never change Spurstalk
One, this isn't an important role in modern basketball unless its coming from a legit bigger more athletic old school big with almost elite athleticism (Jarret Allen), and two, when teams really crank up the defense all of Sochan's shooting numbers go out the window because he becomes completely invisible. It's the main reason I want him gone, cause soon as teams start playing serious defense and high iq basktball, he starts scoring 0 points getting 0 rebounds and turning the ball over no matter what position he is playing on the court.Bkref says Sochan shot 70.7% at the rim this season, up from 66.5% and 65.9% in his first two years. I don't know where you're getting "shooting less than 50% in the paint" from. Even averaging the 0-3 and 3-10 percentages, weighted for the % of shots he takes from each distance, gives 61.2%.
Are you really giving him zero credit for drastically improving his shot diet? It's not all him but it also isn't all not him. If anything it shows that he can credibly fill the rim-roller/dunker role, albeit only that one. His shot diet should be even more unbalanced towards shots at the rim going forward when he gets to play real minutes with Wemby and Fox.
As for the salary, you said $10-12M and then minimum. Which is it? I argue for something like the MLE because of the big difference between Sochan and role players on contenders: he will only be 22 next season. Players at that age tend to make bigger improvements than at other ages, and he already showed a jump this season.
I'd bet alot of money in alot of bank accounts that the overwhelming majority of his shooting percentages are "nobody is guarding me" shots, much like GP2 on the Warriors shooting 80% at the rim cause 90% of his shots are slip screen layups where the other team has 4 players guarding Steph.
I don't think he has the work ethic of our past developmental projects. Going into his third year there is really no noise of his improvement in the off season when it should be the loudest while lesser prospects like Wesley and Branham are being praised for their summer work. Some rumor monger even said he ed around all summer. But they can't waste any asset this early on the rebuild as long as the money makes sense they should sign him to an extension, he is probably closer to what Deni got on his. At this point I would just ask him to only do what he is good at like Brandon Clarke, rim runner, grab and go transition playmaker and POA defender off the bench.
Big sochan fan here but even if balk at anything more than $15 a year. I still like his one on one defence, I like his rim rolling but the problem is that he is now visibly scare to shoot. He was previously beaming with confidence as a player, getting under opponents skin, but he is very much pulled back now because he is playing scared almost. Unless it’s the coaching staff telling him not to shoot and only focus on certain aspects on offence first, perfect those then move onto something else, this is a huge red flag.
He also used to be a better passer as well, now he’s unsure. He doesn’t seem to know what to do as he seems to be afraid to make mistakes. Partly I still think it’s because of the total lack of structure, as in nobody knows what’s going on and who should go where. So sochan spends all the time trying to figure out what’s going on and kept missing the obvious. But on the other hand after months of this chaos, I’d hoped he would’ve picked something up by now.
I’m not so much worried about his lack of shooting efficiency, as much as his reluctance to shoot. I’d say the lack of clarity of his role and forcing him to do things he can’t do absolutely destroyed his progress.
As another Sochan fan - this season has clarified some very important things that act as "Master Denominators" and clearly define Sochan's place on the team moving forward.
The acquisition of Fox, who can shoot the 3 but is certainly not reliant on it, and emergence of Castle, who also isn't a prolific 3pt shooter, has created an outright necessity for our starting SF and PF to be, at the least, willing and capable shooters. Wemby being a stretch-5 makes it so he could work with Sochan, as we saw on the early season, but having 3 practically-non-shooters on the starting lineup is a disaster recipe in 2025 and puts enormous pressure on Wemby to space the floor, which negates so many of his talents.
Thus we can conclude that Sochan's role, so long as both his shooting ability, and shooting willingness, doesn't improve drastically, must be as a bench player, at least on the Spurs. Other teams with different construction and needs may have a bigger role for him, but not these Spurs, and the above configuration seems to be here to stay. I'd earlier move Sochan than any of the 3 players, for sure.
Therefore we (and hopefully/probably the Spurs FO realizes this as well) simply have to look at his upcoming contract extension through that lens. I'm not a contracts guy and have no idea what your average bench PF is getting nowadays - particularly in this post-CBA reality - but that is the measuring stick for sure.
Since we're obviously aiming to be a contender, let's see the SF/PF role player situation on contending rosters. When I say contending, I refer to teams that were build to compete, even if they failed.
Players on rookie contracts not included and players making more than $25M not included. Shooting percentages from this season.
Dort: ~$17M a year for 2 more seasons, elite defender and 41% 3pt shooter.
Kenrich Williams: ~$7M for 2 more seasons, just 16mpg, 38% 3pt.
Hachimura: ~$18M for 2 more seasons, 40% 3pt shooter this season.
DFS: ~$15M the next season, good defender and 36% 3pt.
Derrick Jones Jr: ~$10M for 2 more seasons, 36% 3pt.
Batum: ~$5M next season, veteran, 43% 3pt.
McDaniels: near-identical extension to Devin's, overpaid even though he's an elite defender.
Naz Reid: will surely get 25 to 30 a year in the summer.
Brandon Clarke: ~$12M for the next 3 seasons, can't shoot, not worth the money.
Caleb Martin: ~$9M for the next 4 seasons, didn't play for Dallas, career average 35% 3pt.
Naji Marshall: ~$9M for the next 3 seasons, poor shooter.
PJ Washington: ~$14M next season, 38% 3pt shooter and the team's enforcer, would be great for us.
O'Neale: ~$10M for the next 3 seasons, 40% 3pt.
Oubre: ~$8M next season, 29% 3pt.
SlowMo: ~$9M for the next two seasons, non-shooter.
Highsmisth: ~$5M the next season. 38% 3pt.
Portis: ~$13M the next season, 36% 3pt.
Toppin: ~$15M for the next 3 seasons, 36% 3pt shooter.
Josh Hart: ~$20M for the next 3 seasons, 33% 3pt shooter.
Hauser: ~$12M for the next 3 seasons, 41% 3pt shooter.
Hunter: ~$23M for the next 2 seasons, 43% 3pt shooter.
Strus: ~$15M for the next 2 seasons, 38% 3pt shooter.
Okoro: ~$11M for the next 2 seasons, 37% 3pt shooter.
I know that just listing 3pt percentages without volume is superficial and obviously a lot of these players aren't great defenders, but what was the point I was trying to make?
That even though there are quite a few bad defenders in there, there are just a few non-shooters around the league at SF/PF positions playing limited roles for contenders.
Unless you're a high end starter even without a jumpshot, you're not getting on a contending roster.
The only exceptions are players like SlowMo who are great playmakers for their size (which Jeremy isn't), or athletic freaks who can play as backup bigs even though they're undersized (which Jeremy can't).
There are some more wings on minimum deals, but that's just cir stantial.
Also, have in mind that all of these contracts were signed before the new CBA, a lot of them wouldn't have been so generous with current rules.
TL;DR
Jeremy is absolutely not worth more than ~$10M a year with his current skillset and the lack of improvement in his offensive game means that offering him more based on his potential would be idiotic because it seems that he reached his ceiling early.
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