How big is the gap between Flagg and Harper?

[Kurgan]

Like a previous poster pondered, how much sweetner would the Mavs need to move from #1 to #2? How much besides #2 and #14? A boatload of #2's maybe a Spurs #1 down the line? Can that get it done? Flagg is a better fit for the Spurs if they are going long term development than Harper, and if Mav's see them anywhere near close in skill a swap might happen.

I don't think there's anything reasonable the Spurs can offer that would get it done. Mavs were given a lifeline with that 1st pick. Trading down for the 2nd would just get the fan base riled up again after they just spent the past few months looking like the laughing stock of the NBA.

[John B]

Seeing Castle working for greatness (and I don’t doubt he’ll get there with his work ethic), is there a room for a 3rd franchise type player like Flagg? I will argue that the Miami Heat was more of a LeBron/Wade and Bosh as super role player (his stats went down with LeBron as teammate). Would Flagg take a 3rd and seemingly less role in the future? While Dylan is a better fit as a creator like the Big 3. There are Pros on trading for Flagg for sure, if Flagg is okay to take that lesser role, because the Spurs is Wemby’s team. Can the Spurs have that many alphas in the team? The Big 3 was different because Timmy and Ginobili were team first, and later on TP embracing that concept. I get the impression that Flagg would want to play alongside Wemby, but to be he will be overshadowed in his entire career, and hopefully that will be fine if the Spurs decided to trade for him. Nice topic to ponder..

[Dex]

If LeBowen's offer worked you'd make that trade 10 times out of 10..

I'm already on record that I think Flagg is overhyped, so...I wouldn't. But I could be wrong, and am obviously am not in charge of any decisions.

If the Spurs had gotten #1 then yes, you obviously draft him. But I'm not selling the farm and future prospects to move up one spot over him.

[Arguendo]

I'll go with a homer stance, but what's Flagg's generational talent trait? He looks like a surefire all-star without any real red flags (pun intended), but what's his S+ tier talent that would make him generational?
Doesn't have Lebron's athleticism, KD's scoring ability or nephew's hands/strength. I can definitely see a Pippen 2.0, but not the best player in the league, even if we exclude Wemby.

Meanwhile Harper's 70% at the rim that was just posted in that other topic is a generational attribute combined with his size and footwork.
Guards never get all-time great superstar labels in the draft.
SGA, Curry, Harden and got picked after inferior wings just because "can't teach size argument", Haliburton and Brunson are leading their teams, every elite team has elite ballhandlers who can create out of nothing.

I'm in the camp of he's not a generational talent today (as the youngest guy in the draft) the way Bron/Wemby/Zion where at draft. Think you're right that generational is way overused. He's 1/2 a tier down, clear #1 overall with obvious franchise potential. But if he played this last yr in HS, one more yr of hearing about him nightly, good chance he looks more generational next yr.

But his "generational trait" would be doing everything at a A/A+ level, his skillset is wide and deep.
Look at his advanced numbers, in what should have been his HS senior season, and where they'd rank in the NBA-
TS% .593 = 71st in NBA in 24-25', 51st outside of Centers
FTr .429 = 10th
ORB% 5.5 = 41st
DRB% 21.2 = 30th
TRB% 14.1 = 25th
Ast% 26.8 = 31st
STL% 2.8 = 5th
Blk% 4.9 = 9th
TOV% 11.5 = 82
USG% 30.9 = 11th

College numbers don't automatically translate, sometimes they're fluke #s or sometimes guys are older dominating 18 &19y/os or bad conferences. But FTr, Ast%, and TRB% often do translate, and Stock numbers have a good chance if your O can keep you on the floor. I don't think any of Flagg's numbers were flukey, top 4 conference, and he was at a massive age disadvantage.

126.3 ORtg, 89.5 DRtg. He was arguably best defensive player in college while carrying the load on O (#3 in DRtg behind a D specialist playing 20m/g and a Big West guy), #1 in O and D +/-. Splits of .48/.39/.84 while leading his freshman heavy team in every category to a Final 4.
And his age can't be overstated. He reportedly grew 1" between last yrs Hoop Summit and the Combine, coinflip if he's even done growing. He was the best college basketball player playing the first third his games before his 18th bday. Special. There's only one guy in the NBA with near that combo of Ast% and Stocks%...that's SGA and he doesn't board or block like Flagg.
Flagg doesn't score like him today, but he gets to the line like him and assists like him, may be a better 3pt shooter, and SGA didn't start finding his scoring grove until his 21y/o season. Flagg's got 2 yrs to start catching-up on that.

Flagg is a true 2-way guy and is an excellent creator for others and he's clearly not fully physically developed.
I would not be surprised if him and AD (stupidly assuming healthy) are the best 2-way combo in the entire NBA next yr, similar to how DRob and Timmy were in '98 Center ear but for this new switchable/position-less era.

But on draft night he still doesn't look as NBA defining as Bron, or Zion, or Wemby looked like they could be. That's generational, you define the generation, define what the NBA has to do to stop you.

[Arguendo]

To me Flagg is Rasheed with a better motor. He's not Dame shooting the three or Duncan on the block or Giannis facing up and bulling to the rim but he's a jack of all trades who has a lot of ways to attack efficiently. Same way Sheed was, so many tools. And Rasheed with a motor is terrifying.

Pippen looks like a much comp is better, he may have a lot of Rasheed skill-set, but his Ast% is more than double anything 'Sheed ever did. Actually higher than than anything Pippen ever did. PointForward level, better than Lamar Odom, but not at the LeBron/Luka/Joker level.
I think he's in the Pippen range on D (and drive/effort) but with more size/Rebs/Blocks/shooting and likely better passing. I think his D comp is in the Pippen/Kirilenko range with Tatum being a good O comp. Special and very young.

[kobyz]

I'm not so sure mavs not drafting Harper

[Arguendo]

They'll need to move PJ taking back less salary to get under that apron.

Agree, I didn't realize you could trade into the MLE now so that could really help Dal with salary.

That said, PJ is an expiring, so is Gafford, Klay is old, Naji is 28 and a 30% career guy. Max Christie is maybe their most valuable asset, your not getting a quality starting PG for PJ and Max Christie.
Losing PJ (or Gaff) just to shed salary is a step-back roster wise. Plus Minny needs a PG too, don't think Tyus takes a min deal again.
CP3 at min would really help either of those teams.

[Arguendo]

James Harden is a 36% career 3 point shooter. It’s not like trying to match Steph Curry.

You missed the point. Harden shoots a crazy high % of shots from 3 AND goes to the line for freebies better than anyone outside of Giannis and Butler.

Harden had a 5 yr run from '17-22' where he took more than 50% of his shots from 3 and went to the line on more than 50% of his shots. That's totally insane.
But he's sustained it, from '17 to now, an old Harden has taken more than 45% of his shots from 3 and goes to the line more than 45% of the time. Insane.
Curry's career yr at the line was 35%, only above 30% twice, 24% on his career. Harden was never been below 40%, above 50% 10 of 16 yrs, over 50% on his career..

Curry only shoots because he's the best ever, Harden only shoots OR drives AND goes to the line for freebies. Harden is the best ever at opening the court while getting to the line.

Free throws have a higher expected value than 3s. Getting to the line is the most value offensive tool in the NBA, at least in the regular season. It also directly limits the other teams D and players available.
Harden has scored over 8100 free points, Curry has scored less than 1/2 of that in the same number of yrs.
Free throws are valuable, Castle and Harper get to the line for free throws and accrue fouls, often on big D-fenders that then can't guard Wemby or the lane as tightly. That could prove to be Harper's most valuable NBA trait, a trait that often only 1st Ballot HOFers have.
That was my point.

[John B]

I'm not so sure mavs not drafting Harper

It’s a better fit for both clubs but Mavs fans would probably burn American Airline Arena. If ever they could trade down and get more picks or possibly Dylan + Giannis to Mavs, and Flagg to Spur, Bucks gets multiple 1st plus young players Vassell, Lively, etc. hopefully.

[dn0774]

You missed the point. Harden shoots a crazy high % of shots from 3 AND goes to the line for freebies better than anyone outside of Giannis and Butler.

Harden had a 5 yr run from '17-22' where he took more than 50% of his shots from 3 and went to the line on more than 50% of his shots. That's totally insane.
But he's sustained it, from '17 to now, an old Harden has taken more than 45% of his shots from 3 and goes to the line more than 45% of the time. Insane.
Curry's career yr at the line was 35%, only above 30% twice, 24% on his career. Harden was never been below 40%, above 50% 10 of 16 yrs, over 50% on his career..

Curry only shoots because he's the best ever, Harden only shoots OR drives AND goes to the line for freebies. Harden is the best ever at opening the court while getting to the line.

Free throws have a higher expected value than 3s. Getting to the line is the most value offensive tool in the NBA, at least in the regular season. It also directly limits the other teams D and players available.
Harden has scored over 8100 free points, Curry has scored less than 1/2 of that in the same number of yrs.
Free throws are valuable, Castle and Harper get to the line for free throws and accrue fouls, often on big D-fenders that then can't guard Wemby or the lane as tightly. That could prove to be Harper's most valuable NBA trait, a trait that often only 1st Ballot HOFers have.
That was my point.

Yo you convinced me, i'm in. Stack the team with foul merchants, new meta.

[Brazil]

free throws dont factor into efg%

u are right but point made remains valid nonetheless

[OldMan88]

Giving Wemby resting time during free throws would be a bonus. Both Castle & Harper will be drawing lots of fouls.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Yeah, 2nd all of this, both have franchise level upside but Flagg have more and an easier path.

The thing with Harden that I don't think people realize is he is very likely the best ever at getting to the line while taking tons of 3s.
Harden's career FTr is an absurd 51%, in the range with Giannis and Butler at 52% and 53%, but Giannis only takes 14% of his shoots from 3, while Jimmy only 19%. FTr and 3PAr are typically inverse, Wemby's FTr plummetted this yr bc his 3PAr highrocketed.
Harden's taken 47% of his shots from 3 and still goes to the line 51% of the time. That's insane. For reference, Shaqs FTr was 58% and a huge chunk of that was initial.

Where I'm really high on Castle (to maybe reach star) and now Harper (to maybe reach SS) is FTr, forcing the issue, drawing fouls, getting free points. Castle was at 38% FTr at UConn, translated to top 30 in all-nba last yr at 35%, #15 overall excluding part-time Cs who always dominate FTr.
Harper was at 42% at Rutgers, that's SGA level. And FTr tends to translate bc its a factor of play style and body control.
Between Fox, Castle and Harper Spurs guards are gonna draw a ton of fouls. All 3 could be top 50 in FTr and I almost expect top 30 for Castle and Harper. Excited.

Of course, Harden played his prime years during a period that the NBA was ridiculous in giving EVERY advantage to the offense and foul calls reached such a level that players stopped playing basketball and started playing "draw the foul". Harden was the maestro at this. I wonder how many of his free throws came off 3 point shots. The NBA is slowly returning to a more physical style and I believe FTr will decline across the board. While Harden still draws a ton of foul calls I don't believe anyone (even prime Harden) could achieve those numbers going forward.

[John B]

Of course, Harden played his prime years during a period that the NBA was ridiculous in giving EVERY advantage to the offense and foul calls reached such a level that players stopped playing basketball and started playing "draw the foul". Harden was the maestro at this. I wonder how many of his free throws came off 3 point shots. The NBA is slowly returning to a more physical style and I believe FTr will decline across the board. While Harden still draws a ton of foul calls I don't believe anyone (even prime Harden) could achieve those numbers going forward.

It depends on the star. Castle might get to that All-NBA caliber and he would get foul calls with all his hesi moves