Spurs trade ideas

[cd021]

You overvalue Durant’s market severely

I could see removing the 2029 first and swapping out KJ for Barnes because he's on an expiring but the framework is what would be required to match salaries.

[DPG21920]

I think with how top heavy this draft is and how the bottom really falls out, I think most of the interesting prospects will be gone by 14. Essengue, and Carter probably will. Sorber, Coward, and Fleming might be. They'd be solid long-term pieces but i'd be open to making a move for Johnson considering just how awful the Spurs' spacing will be without making a major move. Having open driving lanes is key to unlocking Castle and Harper's full potential and making the most of Fox.

And you have Barnes here as well that can do a lot of what Cam does. Now, if Barnes could be traded for a first or something to make sure Cam has his 32+MPG then ok I can see sort of shuffling around. But to me it makes more sense to trade Barnes for Cam

[CGD]

I could see removing the 2029 first and swapping out KJ for Barnes because he's on an expiring but the framework is what would be required to match salaries.

Keldon + Vassell alone is sufficient and works on the salaries. Im not considering adding more until there is a trade — from a team KD will agree to go too — that tops it.

[mo7888]

Two trade ideas:


Spurs Get:

Kevin Durant

Suns Get:

Harrison Barnes*
Devin Vassell
Malaki Branham
14th pick
2029 first

*swapped out Keldon Johnson for Barnes because Barnes is a big expiring contract.

Trade 2:

Spurs Get:

Cam Johnson
26th or 27th pick

Nets Get:

Keldon Johnson
14th pick


I get that KD has more downside than Giannis but i'd be tempted to do this deal. Vassell and KJ are expendable, the 14th pick technically is too with the Spurs getting the second pick, Branham is basically just a nice expiring contract while the 2029 first is the only real sticking point. Even so the upside for the next three years would probably be worth it for a Fox, Castle, Champ/Harper, KD, Wemby starting lineup.

A much smaller deal would be to swap Keldon Johnson and 14 for Cam Johnson and 26 or 27. That might be underselling on Cam Johnson, though it would depend on how the Nets feel about Keldon who is four years younger and on a good contract for the next two years. I might even still do it for Keldon Johnson and 14 for Cam Johnson and the 36th pick.

If they're interested, the Spurs would get a sharp shooter would make this roster make a lot more sense. Fox, Castle, Vassell, Johnson, Wemby as the starting five. Harper, Champ, Barnes, Sochan, and a backup five (Brook Lopez?) would be the bench. Spurs suddenly would have more shooting.

That too much for KD. I'd do ot if we kept 2029 though. On the 2nd I think it'd have to be either 19 or 26 + 27 coming our way.

[baseline bum]

If the Spurs trade for KD, they'd need to offset his salary as much as possible to have full access to the MLE. Vassell, Barnes, and Branham gets the Spurs within $5 million if his salary. On Dunc'd On they mentioned his max extension is 2-years, $124 million ($62 million a season). If he were to take something like a 2-year extension for around $114 million ($57 million a season) that would be fine considering that they Spurs would already be paying Vassell and KJ $44.5 million in the first year of KD's extension. He'd only be $11 million more than them.

He'd be under contract for the next three seasons and would be a free agent again at 39, ending before Castle or Harper's extensions would kick in. Looking at KD's shooting numbers, it's shocking how good they were. He shot 53.1% on mid-rangers and 38% on 6.0 threes per game. I don't think he'd fall off a cliff in the next three years, he might just be that good of a scorer that he could still cook in his late 30s. The Spurs would have to pay Wemby, Fox, and KD, like $170 for a year before KD's deal expires. At that point, it would probably be time to trade Fox and move forward with Castle, Harper and Wemby.

The problem isn't the first year of KD's extension: it's the second since that's the year Victor's supermax would kick in. So in 2027-28 it would look like

Durant: $64.3 million
Wemby: $56.1 million
Fox: $55.1 million
Harper: $13.6 million
Castle: $12.7 million

So that's $201.8 million between just those five. Cap is $187.1 million, tax is $227.4 million, first apron $237.1 million, second apron $251.4 million. Assuming the Spurs want to stay below the first apron we're talking $35 million to fill out the other ten roster spots. So Sochan is gone, Keldon is gone, no MLE signings any year, you trade away either the 2026 or the ATL 2027, and you fill the roster with mostly minimum scrubs. KD at full price kills the team's 2027-28 payroll unless the owners are willing to spend well into the first apron and maybe even the second. Not holding my breath on that.

Whereas no Keldon in 27-28 and Vassell is making $24.7 million in 27-28 if the Spurs don't trade for Durant. It's a nearly $40 million difference in payroll paying Durant max. That $40 million can instead go to three picks and now you're filling 6 slots with $35 million while having theoretically a good nine man rotation already in place.

[scott]

Didn't you post a month or so ago that Zach Lowe was hearing KD would take a paycut on the extension to play on a contender? Or am I remembering wrong and it was someone else? I'm all for adding Durant if he's cheap asset wise (say #14, Vassell, Branham, and Wesley) and if he's willing to sign a two year $60 million extension to basically replace Vassell's contract in Years #2 and #3. With those two preconditions met I'd ing love KD here. If KD wants to be paid in full though I'd pass not only because of luxury tax concerns in Year #3 in the first year of Victor's supermax but also because I question if he'll be a max player in a year. I get he should ask for every penny he should get but this isn't a Kobe situation where the Lakers paid him full value because of how much he meant to the franchise even when he was nowhere close to a max player.

Lowe did say that, but it was definitely speculation. If KD is willing to do that, it changes the calculus... but just my opinion but I don't see it.

Here's my rationale on trying to estimate what KD's next deal will be:

• KD's contemporaries are LeBron and Steph, both guys similarly up there in years, both all of these guys are still performing at high levels... all of them are on SuperMax deals.
• Jimmy Butler is almost exactly 1 year younger than, and isn't on KD's level... and the Warriors just gave him a 2-year 35% max
• Harden (also almost 1 full year younger than KD, performing at a high level, but I don't think quite the same level as KD) is the example of a guy is this "stature" who did take a paycut, doing a 1+1 at 24% of the cap. If KD did that, it would be a 2/84 deal... still significantly more than the 2/60 thrown out there. IMO, this is probably around the floor for KD's next deal.

That's just my opinion... of course I could be wrong (but I won't be... because I'm actually KD's alt).

[scott]

Even as a KD skeptic, here is my KD acquisition scenario that wouldn't give me a frowny face:

Trade #1:





Trade #2:





Draft:

Dylan Harper @ #2
Cedric Coward @ #19
Drake Powell @ #38

Free Agency:

Clint Capela signs for 2/10.5 (BAE)
Jake Laravia signs 4/47 (MLE)
Mamu resigns for vet minimum
Lonnie Walker signs for vet minimum
KD extends for 2/86.4
Fox extends for the max

Cap Sheet



Depth Chart:

PG: Fox/Harper/Wesley
SG: Castle/Walker/Powell
SF: LaRavia/Champ/Coward
PF: Durant/Barnes/Wade
C: Wembanyama/Capela/Mamu

Last Thoughts:

• I don't like this SG depth at all, but I'm not expecting these guys to need to play much. Walker is your spot minutes guy, Powell spends a lot of time in the G-League
• I don't really like Capela, but he's a guy I think we could get for the BAE. You can pick your favorite backup C who will take the BAE and insert them here. I'd love Adams of course but I think he might be more expensive
• I treat the tax line as a hard cap, so we don't use all the MLE but I just fit under the tax
• I am aware that Coward and Powell stock has risen to make this overly optimistic... but this is my fantasy scenario and I get to bend the rules as I wish!

[spurraider21]

[PhantomDashCam]

Just hypothesising on a potential trade for #2 (Not advocating btw. Just say SA don't see Harper as "Spursy" for one reason or another...) Would the Spurs/Nets/Hornets consider this?

3 Team - SAS - BKN - CHA

SAS Receives: Pick #4, Mark Williams, Josh Green and Tidjuane Salaun from Charlotte

Brooklyn Receives: Pick #2, Devin Vassell from SAS

Charlotte Receives: Cameron Johnson, Pick #8, Pick #26, Pick #27 from Brooklyn - Malaki Branham and pick #14 from SAS

Why they'd do it?

Spurs use pick #4 on Edgecombe or Johnson (depending on who they like more).
We know from past reports that they had a very real interest in Salaun and Williams in their respective drafts.
Josh Green fits this team very well from a profile POV.

Brooklyn gets their starting backcourt for 5 years+ in Harper and Vassell.

Charlotte gets picks for the rebuild and likely at some point, Lamelo trade. Supposedly they are in asset acquisition mode.

Works under Sporttrac Trade Machine

[Chinook]

If players want to win, they're going to have to end up taking less money. The Lebron era of forcing contending teams to eat the max salaries is over. So either stars have to spread out on weak teams that can max them out, or they have to take smaller contracts to stick together. We'll likely to end up seeing some of both, with the teams composed of player who took less being significantly stronger than those who spread out. Outside of teams who draft their second-and-third-best player and get to the Finals while they're still cheap, we're not likely to see fully stacked teams anymore. But at the same time, we're also going to see the market start to correct itself, as guys who are not capable of being the best players on le teams will stop getting max contracts.

Like why are folks penciling in a max contract for Fox? Yes, we know that under the old system he "earned it". But we know he's not the best player on a le team, and at least I don't see him as obviously someone who can be the second-best player on such a team. So what's the recourse? Even assuming for a second that teams CAN sign him to a max contract in 2026's (there are a lot that COULD have space, but that's assuming they let a lot of guys go), fewer still can reasonably believe they can sign Fox to a max and win a le with him. The same is true for Durant, JJJ, Bridges or any other expiring player the Spurs bring it. The threat to walk just doesn't hold the weight it used to.

That goes double for Castle and Harper, who can't even choose to leave after their rookie deals unless they're willing to pull a Greg Monroe and sign their QOs. It's possible Castle becomes a very good player -- good enough to be the third guy on a le team -- and still signs for something like $200M/5 rather the $300M/5 people pencil in. I get that they're trying to project the most onerous scenario for safety, but I also think that folks may think a Castle that doesn't earn a full max would be a failure when in reality we're just going to see the market adjust to pay player based on how they fit into a viable next work.

We don't know what Durant and Fox (and Wemby) think in regard to taking a bit less to build a sustainable team. I feel that their cuts don't have to be as severe as some have suggested. Giving up comparatively little off a max salary saves a lot in absolute dollars. We'll see how long it takes for the NBA to adjust to the new rules. I'm really hoping the Spurs are ahead of that curve, and we've seen some rumblings that suggest that they are. Teams are going to have to be able to avoid bad deals, and the hardest tests are usually with re-signing good players that you don't want to have to replace.

[Chinook]

Even as a KD skeptic, here is my KD acquisition scenario that wouldn't give me a frowny face:

Trade #1:





Trade #2:





Draft:

Dylan Harper @ #2
Cedric Coward @ #19
Drake Powell @ #38

Free Agency:

Clint Capela signs for 2/10.5 (BAE)
Jake Laravia signs 4/47 (MLE)
Mamu resigns for vet minimum
Lonnie Walker signs for vet minimum
KD extends for 2/86.4
Fox extends for the max

Cap Sheet



Depth Chart:

PG: Fox/Harper/Wesley
SG: Castle/Walker/Powell
SF: LaRavia/Champ/Coward
PF: Durant/Barnes/Wade
C: Wembanyama/Capela/Mamu

Last Thoughts:

• I don't like this SG depth at all, but I'm not expecting these guys to need to play much. Walker is your spot minutes guy, Powell spends a lot of time in the G-League
• I don't really like Capela, but he's a guy I think we could get for the BAE. You can pick your favorite backup C who will take the BAE and insert them here. I'd love Adams of course but I think he might be more expensive
• I treat the tax line as a hard cap, so we don't use all the MLE but I just fit under the tax
• I am aware that Coward and Powell stock has risen to make this overly optimistic... but this is my fantasy scenario and I get to bend the rules as I wish!

Did they change how minimum salaries work in this new CBA? You've been using five-year minimum salaries, when under the old system it would be the two-year min used instead. Over this many contracts, that saves enough money to make a difference.

[spurraider21]

If players want to win, they're going to have to end up taking less money. The Lebron era of forcing contending teams to eat the max salaries is over. So either stars have to spread out on weak teams that can max them out, or they have to take smaller contracts to stick together. We'll likely to end up seeing some of both, with the teams composed of player who took less being significantly stronger than those who spread out. Outside of teams who draft their second-and-third-best player and get to the Finals while they're still cheap, we're not likely to see fully stacked teams anymore. But at the same time, we're also going to see the market start to correct itself, as guys who are not capable of being the best players on le teams will stop getting max contracts.

Like why are folks penciling in a max contract for Fox? Yes, we know that under the old system he "earned it". But we know he's not the best player on a le team, and at least I don't see him as obviously someone who can be the second-best player on such a team. So what's the recourse? Even assuming for a second that teams CAN sign him to a max contract in 2026's (there are a lot that COULD have space, but that's assuming they let a lot of guys go), fewer still can reasonably believe they can sign Fox to a max and win a le with him. The same is true for Durant, JJJ, Bridges or any other expiring player the Spurs bring it. The threat to walk just doesn't hold the weight it used to.

That goes double for Castle and Harper, who can't even choose to leave after their rookie deals unless they're willing to pull a Greg Monroe and sign their QOs. It's possible Castle becomes a very good player -- good enough to be the third guy on a le team -- and still signs for something like $200M/5 rather the $300M/5 people pencil in. I get that they're trying to project the most onerous scenario for safety, but I also think that folks may think a Castle that doesn't earn a full max would be a failure when in reality we're just going to see the market adjust to pay player based on how they fit into a viable next work.

We don't know what Durant and Fox (and Wemby) think in regard to taking a bit less to build a sustainable team. I feel that their cuts don't to be as severe as some have suggested. Giving up comparatively little off a max salary saves a lot in absolute dollars. We'll see how long it takes for the NBA to adjust to the new rules. I'm really hoping the Spurs are ahead of that curve, and we've seen some rumblings that suggest that they are. Teams are going to have to be able to avoid bad deals, and the hardest tests are usually with re-signing good players that you don't have to have to replace.

doesnt seem the NBA has really changed (yet) when it comes to max contracts. paul george just signed for a max. jimmy butler just extended for the max. jaylen brown got the supermax. markkanen got the max. jamal murray got the max.

these days, a "team friendly discount" is just when a player takes the max a year early instead of waiting, like DJM with Atlanta or Brunson in NY

[Chinook]

doesnt seem the NBA has really changed (yet) when it comes to max contracts. paul george just signed for a max. jimmy butler just extended for the max. jaylen brown got the supermax. markkanen got the max. jamal murray got the max.

these days, a "team friendly discount" is just when a player takes the max a year early instead of waiting, like DJM with Atlanta or Brunson in NY

Brown got his max years ago. Markkanen didn't sign for the max (it actually goes down in the second year). Murray and George did get their contracts after the apron effects were known, and their teams regret them. We'll see about Golden State. The fact that the extension is so short and the team actually had cap space before this past season means they aren't locking themselves into the same situation that teams used to do.

I agree that's what "team friendly" used to mean, and obviously agents and many players are going to try to keep that going. But teams that give those deals out are going to struggle to win. And if teams can win with those contracts, they won't give them out anymore.

[spurraider21]

Brown got his max years ago. Markkanen didn't sign for the max (it actually goes down in the second year). Murray and George did get their contracts after the apron effects were known, and their teams regret them. We'll see about Golden State. The fact that the extension is so short and the team actually had cap space before this past season means they aren't locking themselves into the same situation that teams used to do.

I agree that's what "team friendly" used to mean, and obviously agents and many players are going to try to keep that going. But teams that give those deals out are going to struggle to win. And if teams can win with those contracts, they won't give them out anymore.

good catch on Lauri. i will still point out that Brown's supermax came after the latest CBA and all the apron rules were known

i do think things should change on this front, but theres little evidence that it has

[RC_Drunkford]

Doesn't change the fact that he isn't nearly the shooter that Cam Johnson is. KJ's lack of consistency as a shooter limits his ceiling. Cam Johnson starting at the four playing alongside two slashers and a 7'4 big man drawing all the attention is just a better fit.

Harrison Barnes shot 43.3 % from 3 on 4.4. attempts. That's the same role Cam Johnson would play here and he wouldn't do much more than Barnes on both ends.

[RC_Drunkford]

Just hypothesising on a potential trade for #2 (Not advocating btw. Just say SA don't see Harper as "Spursy" for one reason or another...) Would the Spurs/Nets/Hornets consider this?

3 Team - SAS - BKN - CHA

SAS Receives: Pick #4, Mark Williams, Josh Green and Tidjuane Salaun from Charlotte

Brooklyn Receives: Pick #2, Devin Vassell from SAS

Charlotte Receives: Cameron Johnson, Pick #8, Pick #26, Pick #27 from Brooklyn - Malaki Branham and pick #14 from SAS

Why they'd do it?

Spurs use pick #4 on Edgecombe or Johnson (depending on who they like more).
We know from past reports that they had a very real interest in Salaun and Williams in their respective drafts.
Josh Green fits this team very well from a profile POV.

Brooklyn gets their starting backcourt for 5 years+ in Harper and Vassell.

Charlotte gets picks for the rebuild and likely at some point, Lamelo trade. Supposedly they are in asset acquisition mode.

Works under Sporttrac Trade Machine

no. Mark Williams can't even pass a physical and Salaun is only an NBA player in theory. Devin Vassell alone is worth more than that entire Hornets package. Might as well trade Wemby for Naz Reid while we're destroying the franchise.

[cd021]

Harrison Barnes shot 43.3 % from 3 on 4.4. attempts. That's the same role Cam Johnson would play here and he wouldn't do much more than Barnes on both ends.

I think Johnson is a more versatile shooter than Barnes but, in that scenario, the Spurs would have both with Johnson starting and Barnes coming off the bench. Having two 6-8 sharpshooting power forwards is a good thing.

[RC_Drunkford]

I think Johnson is a more versatile shooter than Barnes but, in that scenario, the Spurs would have both with Johnson starting and Barnes coming off the bench. Having two 6-8 sharpshooting power forwards is a good thing.

having 2 power forwards who don't rebound or play defense is not a good thing

[cd021]

The problem isn't the first year of KD's extension: it's the second since that's the year Victor's supermax would kick in. So in 2027-28 it would look like

Durant: $64.3 million
Wemby: $56.1 million
Fox: $55.1 million
Harper: $13.6 million
Castle: $12.7 million

So that's $201.8 million between just those five. Cap is $187.1 million, tax is $227.4 million, first apron $237.1 million, second apron $251.4 million. Assuming the Spurs want to stay below the first apron we're talking $35 million to fill out the other ten roster spots. So Sochan is gone, Keldon is gone, no MLE signings any year, you trade away either the 2026 or the ATL 2027, and you fill the roster with mostly minimum scrubs. KD at full price kills the team's 2027-28 payroll unless the owners are willing to spend well into the first apron and maybe even the second. Not holding my breath on that.

Whereas no Keldon in 27-28 and Vassell is making $24.7 million in 27-28 if the Spurs don't trade for Durant. It's a nearly $40 million difference in payroll paying Durant max. That $40 million can instead go to three picks and now you're filling 6 slots with $35 million while having theoretically a good nine-man rotation already in place.

My scenario hinged on the Spurs and Durant agreeing to a non-max extension of around $114 million or $57 million a year. That would give them a lot more breathing room. Your scenario also hinges on a 30% max for Fox. That is probably going to happen, but I suppose it's possible that he could take slightly less to help make a KD trade more viable since a potential deal would happen far in advance of a Fox extension.

That could give the Spurs at least $45 million to fill out the other eight spots to get to 13. To your point, the Spurs couldn't go out past two seasons on whoever they might sign to the MLE this season in this scenario but it's not impossible to construct a championship roster with that as your five best players. Especially if Wembanyama is a top-5 player at that point, Fox doesn't disappoint, and KD is still a bucket at 39.

[PhantomDashCam]

no. Mark Williams can't even pass a physical and Salaun is only an NBA player in theory. Devin Vassell alone is worth more than that entire Hornets package. Might as well trade Wemby for Naz Reid while we're destroying the franchise.

Health is obviously key here (some have reported that the long term back injury report looks bogus) but I think you're either undervaluing Williams overall impact or overvaluing Vassells.

A rotation of Wemby-Sochan-Green-Castle-Fox with Williams-KJ-Barnes-Edgecombe-Champ in support. Salaun-Wesley as energy/developmental pieces. There's some merit here.

[cd021]

And you have Barnes here as well that can do a lot of what Cam does. Now, if Barnes could be traded for a first or something to make sure Cam has his 32+MPG then ok I can see sort of shuffling around. But to me it makes more sense to trade Barnes for Cam

Swapping out one shooter for another doesn't really solve the Spurs spacing problems. They basically have just four good shooters, at least swapping KJ out for CJ would give them five with Castle hopefully being close to league-average next season.

having 2 power forwards who don't rebound or play defense is not a good thing

I don't think neither are bad enough to be easily exploited especially with Wembanyama protecting the rim. Meanwhile, having both could significantly help their offense. Otherwise, the Spurs as is, plus with Harper would have poor spacing.

[exstatic]

good catch on Lauri. i will still point out that Brown's supermax came after the latest CBA and all the apron rules were known

i do think things should change on this front, but theres little evidence that it has

NBA did a soft launch, where they implemented some of the apron rules each year. If you look at what Boston is facing, you’ll see what other NBA teams see.

The first order effect was fewer years. PG left because the Clippers wouldn’t do five. As you pointed out, Butler got only two. I think the second order effect will be guys like MPJ and Markannen not getting a bag going forward. MPJ is pretty much the root cause of the dissolution of the Nuggets. In another thread we were discussing how dumb Ainge was for not offloading Markannen last year under his old deal. This type of bloated contract for a high level role player will make him very difficult to move for any real asset package.

[cd021]

Lowe did say that, but it was definitely speculation. If KD is willing to do that, it changes the calculus... but just my opinion but I don't see it.


Here's my rationale on trying to estimate what KD's next deal will be:

• KD's contemporaries are LeBron and Steph, both guys similarly up there in years, both all of these guys are still performing at high levels... all of them are on SuperMax deals.
• Jimmy Butler is almost exactly 1 year younger than, and isn't on KD's level... and the Warriors just gave him a 2-year 35% max
• Harden (also almost 1 full year younger than KD, performing at a high level, but I don't think quite the same level as KD) is the example of a guy is this "stature" who did take a paycut, doing a 1+1 at 24% of the cap. If KD did that, it would be a 2/84 deal... still significantly more than the 2/60 thrown out there. IMO, this is probably around the floor for KD's next deal.

That's just my opinion... of course I could be wrong (but I won't be... because I'm actually KD's alt).

I'm not sure why some are expecting KD to go from making $54 million to $30 million when he's still playing at a high level. John Hollinger mentioned that his max extension would be 2 years, $128 ($62 million), a reasonable pay cut would be around 2 years, $110 ($55 million).

That too much for KD. I'd do ot if we kept 2029 though. On the 2nd I think it'd have to be either 19 or 26 + 27 coming our way.

That 2029 first gives me pause, for sure, I'm not sure they could get a KD deal done without it unless the Suns really value KJ and Vassell. Not impossible. For the second trade. I don't think the Nets would trade Cam Johnson and 19 or 26 and 27 for Keldon and 14. I think that tends to overate KJ's value unless the Nets love KJ. Johnson could probably net a first on his own, KJ probably can't. At least by trading back 12 spots, the Spurs still get a first.

[cd021]

Keldon + Vassell alone is sufficient and works on the salaries. Im not considering adding more until there is a trade — from a team KD will agree to go too — that tops it.

Adding Branham would get them closer to matching salaries, clear out a roster spot, and keep them from having to offload him to another team. If the Spurs don't include the 14th pick, I think Minny could beat that offer by moving Randle, Divincenzo, and the 17th or 31st pick

[RC_Drunkford]

Health is obviously key here (some have reported that the long term back injury report looks bogus) but I think you're either undervaluing Williams overall impact or overvaluing Vassells.

A rotation of Wemby-Sochan-Green-Castle-Fox with Williams-KJ-Barnes-Edgecombe-Champ in support. Salaun-Wesley as energy/developmental pieces. There's some merit here.

Mark Williams has played 106 games in 3 seasons. He has missed 2/3 of all games. What exactly am I undervaluing here if my back up C is not even available for 50% of the regular season? He has basically the value of an open roster spot. Trading the #2 pick for him, a G-Leaguer and a back up 2 is lunacy.