***** All Inclusive 2025 Election Night Thread *****

[Winehole23]

uh huh

you're monitoring it too

[Millennial_Messiah]

Lib media has already started, if Dems win in blue cities & states...it's a referendum on Trump lol

I've been telling conservative people in NYC for months to vote for Cuomo because the mad red hatter guy has always had exactly zero chance.

But, Mamdani winning would probably be good for conservatives... best case is Mamdani wins AND Ciattarelli wins and tons of conservative people from NY move to NJ and flip that seat from light blue to pink rather quickly.... otherwise they'll just be moving to PA and NC which isn't a bad thing either.

[Winehole23]

I've been telling conservative people in NYC for months to vote for Cuomo because the mad red hatter guy has always had exactly zero chance.

but Sliwa didn't withdraw

[Millennial_Messiah]

but Sliwa didn't withdraw

I've been calling for him to withdraw since springtime. He's literally a multi time loser for the same exact position. The definition of insanity is to do the exact same thing multiple times and expect different outcomes.

Adams did the right thing, but even he did probably a little too late. But Spoiler Sliwa is a dip and probably wants Mamdani to win by proxy because he loves the country more than NYC and he might have a point there. Because Mamdani victory could push more than half of NYC's conservative ~20-30% population into swing states like PA and NC that they're already moving to and have been since Covid and could cause a ripple effect in the electoral college that's anathema to Democrats. Could even be enough to make a difference in NC's senate race next year with Cooper vs Whatley.

If Ciattarelli wins, then NJ likely gets a lot of the Mamdani conservative NYC exodus boost. If not, PA and NC are likely the biggest destinations, since Florida is pretty much full and too expensive at this point.

[Millennial_Messiah]

He literally threatened to murder elected officials AND children. Calling children and unborn babies fascists and Nazis and saying they should die. He's not a human.

My predictions -

Spanberger (D) +6
Hashmi (D) +7
Miyares (R) +6
VA house of delegates - small D majority
VA state senate - small D majority, maybe status quo map


Ciattarelli (R) + 0.7%
NJ Attorney general - R + 1.5%
NJ state house - D majority
NJ state senate - D majority


Mamdani + 22%


California Proposition 50 (D) - Yes +7%
[please vote against it]


San Antonio elections:

-Prop A: Yes +11%
-Prop B: Yes +13%

I still like these predictions tbh. prop 50 is going to be a lot closer than the polls expect.

[Winehole23]

I still like these predictions tbh. prop 50 is going to be a lot closer than the polls expect.

are you familiar with the track record of your predictions here?

[Winehole23]

you pour out the sweat of your life backing losers at a ratio approaching one

[SnakeBoy]

I've been telling conservative people in NYC for months to vote for Cuomo because the mad red hatter guy has always had exactly zero chance.

But, Mamdani winning would probably be good for conservatives... best case is Mamdani wins AND Ciattarelli wins and tons of conservative people from NY move to NJ and flip that seat from light blue to pink rather quickly.... otherwise they'll just be moving to PA and NC which isn't a bad thing either.

Mamdani win hands the GOP a ready made boogeyman. It energizes the left, sets the stage for deeper Democratic divides heading into '28. Hopefully another we wuz robbed primary.

[Winehole23]

moar sweaty rationalizing

[Millennial_Messiah]

Mamdani win hands the GOP a ready made boogeyman. It energizes the left, sets the stage for deeper Democratic divides heading into '28. Hopefully another we wuz robbed primary.

lots of reasons for the GOP optimistic about Mamdani victory, Cuomo is the status quo candidate.

are you familiar with the track record of your predictions here?

they missed -but not by a lot compared to others like Spurtacular and Chris- (i had 269-269) - in 2020 and were spot-on in 2021 and 2024, I think I had Rogers narrowly beating Slotkin by 0.1% and he lost by 0.1% or 19,000 votes...... else was pretty perfect.... nailed the McCormick narrow victory over Casey and no one else did....... your point?


DDHQ just called VA Gov for Spanberger, they're always first to call and have about a 99.2% accuracy track record, lowest of everyone but still, this early, it's likely she won close to or double digits

[SnakeBoy]

moar sweaty rationalizing

You don't want to talk about Dem party politics I know. Just waiting to do what your told.

[Winehole23]

Dems look to flip both statewide offices in Georgia

https://www.wjcl.com/article/georgia...ssion/69080230

[Winehole23]

You don't want to talk about Dem party politics I know. Just waiting to do what your told.

what do you want me to talk about? y'all getting creamed today?

[Winehole23]

early projection

[Winehole23]

Dems flipping 10 HoD seats in VA?

https://projects.statenavigate.com/2...a/en-home.html

[Winehole23]

You don't want to talk about Dem party politics I know. Just waiting to do what your told.

I think it's disdvantageous for Dems that Jeffries and Schumer both come from the insanely factional NY politics scene. They have a hard time seeing the national picture.

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

you were close on this one, M_M

[Winehole23]

every county in VA shifted blue relative to last year

[Winehole23]

Pennsylvania voters approved the retention of three state Supreme Court justices, NBC News projects, preserving Democrats’ 5-2 majority on the battleground state’s high court.


Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht all survived an up-or-down vote to keep their seats on the bench. Dougherty and Wecht each won another 10-year term, while Donohue will serve until 2027, when she’ll reach the mandatory retirement age of 75 for justices.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/ele...ces-rcna238914

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

Cuomo got rinsed

[Winehole23]

if the trend holds, Dems will have 63 seats in the VA House of Delegates

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

Earle-Sears should have focused more on kitchen-table issues. Bathroom bills and transphobia were perhaps too exotic and provincial for Virginia voters.